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TBar1977

Most to Least Likely to Win Weight Class

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We had this thread last year and it sparked a lot of comments. 

 

The Most Likely @ 99.9 Percent (these guys will win barring injury)

Hwt Kyle Snyder

149 Zain Train

157 Jason Nolf

 

75 Percent Chance

184 Bo Nickal (I'm going to get some disagreement on this pick, I am sure)

The other 25 percent can go to the field

 

68 Percent Chance

197 Kollin Moore

I will give the combination of Haught and Miklus 25 percent chance, 7 percent to the field

 

60 Percent Chance

174 Mark Hall

25 percent Zahid, 15 percent Bo Jordan

 

50 Percent Chance

125 Nathan Tomasello

45 percent to Nick Suriano, 5 percent to the returning champ Darian Cruz, no disrespect intended

 

33 Percent Chance

165 I Mar, Cenzo and Massa all get 33 percent, 1 percent goes to the field

 

25 Percent Chance

133 Seth Gross, Stevan Micic, and Kaid Brock all get 25 percent, the other 25 percent goes to the field

 

20 Percent Chance

141 Dean Heil gets the 20 percent. I checked the board rules and they require that Dean Heil be placed last in terms of his chances. 

15 percent to each of Kevin Jack, Bryce Meredith, Joey McKenna,  Jaydin Eierman and Anthony Ashnault. 5 percent to the field. 

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Dean Heil is very underrated. The best at every position at 141. I think Nolf and Bo Jordan are way too high. I wouldn't put Hall at 60%, I wouldn't have him more than 10% above Zahid. With Coon at Hwy, I think Snyder is too high, a potential Coon throw is worth more than 1% if you ask me. Maybe Gross should be above 25%. I definitely can't give Brock 25% with his mat wrestling issues.

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At 125 I give Cruz more of a chance.  If he was the same guy in March that got beat multiple times earlier, he doesn't beat Gilman.  I also think Lee/Fix have a chance if either wrestles.  For that matter I'd give Picc a chance.  Freshmen who come on hard at the end of their freshman seasons can jump as sophs.  I agree that Tomasello and Suriano are the favorites, but I'd say more like 1/3 for each and 1/3 for the rest.  I think this weight is pretty wide open.  

 

133 I give Micic the biggest chance.  I think Mckee gets his own chance as he's better than the rest of the field.

 

141 Even odds between Yianni, Jack, Meredith, McKenna, Eierman, and Ashnault. 

 

149 Zain all day.  

 

157 Nolf even more all day.  I think he's less tested than Snyder

 

165 I agree its the 3 big dogs with roughly equal chances.  Maybe Imar 34%.

 

174 I think Daniel Lewis has a shot.  He's a tough matchup for Hall.  Lewis isn't very aggressive on his feet so he's tough to counter, he's really good on top, and he's long.  I think Zahid has better than 25% at whatever weight.  I'd make Hall the favorite at like 50%.  I don't give BoJo much chance.  Maybe less than Lewis.  

 

184 Nickal but others are tough and Nickal leaves openings.  But 184 is a little easier than the last 2 years' meat grinder.

 

197 Moore all day.  Miklus is a wildcard who could use his big move style to get a goer like Moore.  Weigel could win a match he shouldn't because of matchups but can't win all of them.  Moore like 90%.

 

285 Snyder 100% but he'll have to work for it with Coon.  

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Not a lot of respect for Bo Jordan. I have said this before, but Hall has a giant * next to his title in my mind in his one win over BoJo (that officiating was terrible and on par with the JO/Stieber match). BoJo is now healthy for the first time in 2 years and training hard according to Tom Ryan on the T Row and Funky podcast. He is also 2 and 0 lifetime against Lewis I believe so I'm not sure why people would think Lewis has more of a chance to win it than Bo...

 

I'd also put Moore slightly ahead of Bo Nickal to win it.

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Not a lot of respect for Bo Jordan. I have said this before, but Hall has a giant * next to his title in my mind in his one win over BoJo (that officiating was terrible and on par with the JO/Stieber match). BoJo is now healthy for the first time in 2 years and training hard according to Tom Ryan on the T Row and Funky podcast. He is also 2 and 0 lifetime against Lewis I believe so I'm not sure why people would think Lewis has more of a chance to win it than Bo...

 

I'd also put Moore slightly ahead of Bo Nickal to win it.

You saying it before doesn't make it true.  There is no asterisk, only an official result you won't let go of.

 

If BoJo and Lewis were in a 2 man bracket then I completely agree BoJo has a better chance to win.  When you drop Hall and Valencia and others in, I think Lewis has an equal or slightly better chance of running the table.  I'd make it like 50% Hall, 40% Valencia, and the other 10% between BoJo and Lewis.

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20 Percent Chance

141 Dean Heil gets the 20 percent. I checked the board rules and they require that Dean Heil be placed last in terms of his chances. 

15 percent to each of Kevin Jack, Bryce Meredith, Joey McKenna,  Jaydin Eierman and Anthony Ashnault. 5 percent to the field. 

So you'd give me 5:1 odds on Heil winning NCAAs?  How much am I allowed to bet? 

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So you'd give me 5:1 odds on Heil winning NCAAs? How much am I allowed to bet?

Board tradition indicates Heil has to be the least likely to win. Using 5 percent increments I gave him the highest allowable percentage that would not have him passing anyone. I felt that was the right thing to do.

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LOL!

 

Not sure what's funny there. I think it's completely reasonable. 

 

Hall is too high is Z is at 174. Bo is too high if Z is at 184. Heil should be higher as much as I want literally anyone else to win at 141. At least 50% imo. Everything else is pretty accurate imo. 

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Board tradition indicates Heil has to be the least likely to win. Using 5 percent increments I gave him the highest allowable percentage that would not have him passing anyone. I felt that was the right thing to do.

I honestly took your "board" comment to mean the low value was half joke.  That's why in my initial list I just didn't include Heil.  Then I got bored and asked for a bet.  He's pretty hard to bet against and pretty hard to bet on.

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Nice thread TBar. Only disagreement I have is 165, 174 and 197.

 

At 165, I’d give 41% IMAR, 40% Cenzo and 10% Massa. The rest goes to field. Until Massa can prove he can beat those guys I don’t see how he higher.

 

174 is Hall 40%, Zahid 39%. Jordan 15%. Rest to field. Both Hall and Zahid will be stronger and the both are better actual wrestlers than Jordan. Jordan strength won’t be as much as advantage this year as both these guys stronger

 

At 197. If Downey wrestled here I can see him 40/40 with Moore and the rest to field.

 

 

 

 

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Nice thread TBar. Only disagreement I have is 165, 174 and 197.

 

At 165, I’d give 41% IMAR, 40% Cenzo and 10% Massa. The rest goes to field. Until Massa can prove he can beat those guys I don’t see how he higher.

 

174 is Hall 40%, Zahid 39%. Jordan 15%. Rest to field. Both Hall and Zahid will be stronger and the both are better actual wrestlers than Jordan. Jordan strength won’t be as much as advantage this year as both these guys stronger

 

At 197. If Downey wrestled here I can see him 40/40 with Moore and the rest to field.

 

 

 

 

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I agree in retrospect that Massa should be lower.  I like your percentages but I wouldn't give anyone outside of those 3 a chance.

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You saying it before doesn't make it true.  There is no asterisk, only an official result you won't let go of.

 

If BoJo and Lewis were in a 2 man bracket then I completely agree BoJo has a better chance to win.  When you drop Hall and Valencia and others in, I think Lewis has an equal or slightly better chance of running the table.  I'd make it like 50% Hall, 40% Valencia, and the other 10% between BoJo and Lewis.

 

Whatever you want to say about the final having no asterisk, Bo and Hall are 1-1 head-to-head.  Really none of your analysis for the weight makes any sense to me.  One of the more puzzling takes I've seen recently. It's the top 3... a large gap... and then Lewis.  

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I agree in retrospect that Massa should be lower. I like your percentages but I wouldn't give anyone outside of those 3 a chance.

I really believe if Marstetler has his head on straight he can wrestle with any of them. Kutler tough as well. Very strong weight

 

 

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Whatever you want to say about the final having no asterisk, Bo and Hall are 1-1 head-to-head.  Really none of your analysis for the weight makes any sense to me.  One of the more puzzling takes I've seen recently. It's the top 3... a large gap... and then Lewis.  

I may be totally wrong.  I think Lewis is good enough to be in that group.  He had Joseph beat and ran out of gas.  He has a big frame (bigger than Jordan or Hall) and I think the move up in weight will do him well.  Maybe it helps the conditioning issues.  Maybe not.  I think he matches up well with Valencia because he's long, a decent athlete, and tough on top,.  And I think he matches up well with Hall for those reasons plus he doesn't do much in neutral so there isn't much to counter.  And remember I gave him a %5 chance.

 

As for a top 3, I just don't see it.  I think Jordan was behind those guys last year and they were freshman (Hall a TF).  I think the gap gets bigger not smaller.  I think Valencia is an especially bad matchup for Jordan because I think he finishes takedowns on him much easier than Hall.  

 

If Valencia is not in the weight then I do think Jordan is a very tough matchup for Hall, even if I think Hall is better.  Without Valencia I'd give Jordan a real chance.  I just don't see him beating both guys.

Edited by boconnell

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I really believe if Marstetler has his head on straight he can wrestle with any of them. Kutler tough as well. Very strong weight

 

 

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I think Rogers has a better shot than Marstellar or Kutler.  But I don't think any of those 3 has any chance at the title if everyone is healthy.  And yes, it's an extremely tough weight.  

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You have hall way too high. The most underplayed story of last year is the calls he got on his way to the title.

 

Shhhh Hammerlock, you can't mention things that lead to the final result, only the final result itself apparently. Ignore the years of moaning about the JO/Stieber match because BoCon said these scenarios don't need to be mentioned. I honestly think the Hall/BoJo final is even WORSE than JO/Stieber because they had video review and still botched the call.

 

Charlie brings up a very valid point in the record between Hall and BoJo. They had two very close matches with each taking a win - Hall's win just happened two weeks later and with some highly suspect officiating. With things being pretty even that seems like pretty good criteria to me to pick BoJo over Hall in a rematch. I'd certainly put the odds at better than 10 or 15%. 

 

Edit to say I could see the argument that both Hall and Valencia will be stronger with another year of maturing and could negate some advantage that Bo had this year. That seems like a fair case that could be made.

Edited by Perry

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Shhhh Hammerlock, you can't mention things that lead to the final result, only the final result itself apparently. Ignore the years of moaning about the JO/Stieber match because BoCon said these scenarios don't need to be mentioned. I honestly think the Hall/BoJo final is even WORSE than JO/Stieber because they had video review and still botched the call.

 

Charlie brings up a very valid point in the record between Hall and BoJo. They had two very close matches with each taking a win - Hall's win just happened two weeks later and with some highly suspect officiating. With things being pretty even that seems like pretty good criteria to me to pick BoJo over Hall in a rematch. I'd certainly put the odds at better than 10 or 15%. 

 

Edit to say I could see the argument that both Hall and Valencia will be stronger with another year of maturing and could negate some advantage that Bo had this year. That seems like a fair case that could be made.

I didn't tell you it was irrelevant how he won.  I said quoting your own previous statements about how he won was irrelevant.  That's not a bold statement by me, it's simply true.  If I say something more than once, it doesn't make it more true each time.  

 

And I agree BoJo has a shot with Hall.  Even if Hall grows in size and strength I think BoJo has a shot.  I just don't think he has a shot with Valencia who is bigger, longer, and more explosive than BoJo.  I think Valencia is the best guy in this weight but he has a hard time finishing on Hall.  I don't think that will change.  I think Hall is the best defensive guy but he hasn't shown an ability to get to his own offense yet.  That makes him vulnerable against guys who don't do much in neutral (Meyer, Jordan).  I don't think BoJo is good enough defensively to stop Valencia, and I don't think he has the offense to keep up in a shootout.

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Sometimes the “IT” factor also plays a role. I just see some guys as guys who will win on the biggest of stages. Mark Hall is one of those guys. That gives him an edge. He wrestles the biggest of matches and wins. Snyder, Burroughs, Stevenson, Lee. These guys win every time when it matters most. You cannot discount that. I’m the biggest PSU fan but look at David Taylor. To me he’s been the best in his weight for years but yet to make a world team. It’s as if he tenses up, wrestled different, whatever it is he doesn’t win that BIG match. I see Hall as an IT guy and that has to count for something even though that may not be a physical attribute

 

 

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