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TBar1977

Most to Least Likely to Win Weight Class

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I don't really see anyone saying Bo is going to dominate the weight.  And if that's not the assertion, how can you really overrate the guy?  He's never placed lower than 3rd. 

 

RE: Zahid v. Bo, if it is anything other than an extremely close bout, I would be shocked.  Zahid and Bo IMO are very close.  Seems like you're thinking Zahid wins by 2+ takedowns.  I'd say it's 50/50.  I'd be willing to place a friendly wager if you give me Bo +2 pts.

 

I think he's being given a bigger chance to win than is realistic. Just because he was in the mix last year with true freshman Hall doesn't mean he's going to be this year. Hall is in a different talent bracket than Bo. I think Zahid is too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hall beat him handily this season. If he wrestles Zahid, I can see it getting really bad for him. I think Zahid is capable of giving him the biggest loss of his career. I don't see "extremely close" being in the cards. I definitely do not see an NCAA title for Bo.

 

Your wager sounds good. Find me when NCAAs come around.

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The concept of "barring injury" is 100% accurate with the initial post.  There is 99.9% certainty that Snyder, Zain and Nolf will win it all.  For those to not understand this is not living in reality.  

 

Snyder has 0.1% chance of losing to Coon... big throw is the only chance Coon has, otherwise, total decimation. 

 

Zain will have gained even more confidence from his World Championships visit, and is going to be an absolute nightmare his senior tour.

 

Nolf is Nolf, and quite frankly, has even greater upside than what we've seen because his style is so "funky".  He will not lose, barring some crazy circumstance. 

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I don't think Nolf is a 99% guy. I could see Kemmerer being a worthy challenger this year. I wouldn't be shocked by an upset. The Nolf we've seen thus far is at least a level below Retherford and Snyder. His competition makes him appear better than he actually is imo.

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I don't think Nolf is a 99% guy. I could see Kemmerer being a worthy challenger this year. I wouldn't be shocked by an upset. The Nolf we've seen thus far is at least a level below Retherford and Snyder. His competition makes him appear better than he actually is imo.

I agree he's way below Snyder and below Retherford as well.  Especially in a comparison like this since his style is more prone to an upset.  

 

But I think Kemerrer is a level below Coon or Sorenson.  Nobody is touching Nolf this year.  

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I agree he's way below Snyder and below Retherford as well.  Especially in a comparison like this since his style is more prone to an upset.  

 

But I think Kemerrer is a level below Coon or Sorenson.  Nobody is touching Nolf this year.

 

I thought that Iowa should have strongly considered putting Sorenson at 157, and Kemmerer at 149, last year. A risk, but it could have resulted in two finalists. I think Sorenson vs Nolf could have been very competitive. Things change fast with guys this young, so even if that was true last year, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is true this year. I'm interested in seeing the development of Nolf and Kemmerer this season. Nolf, on paper, should run away with it, but I can't see myself being shocked if he loses.

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I would actually agree with steamboat charlie and take Bo Jordan +2 vs Zahid. Zahid wrestles defensively against top level guys so I would feel good predicting a 1 td match. Bo can ride Zahid too. And on bottom Bo isn't great on bottom, but Zahid isn't great on top.

Edited by TBar1977

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Nolf has two 1 pt losses to James Green, the senior world silver medalist. He'd major Sorenson easily.

If he didn't already lose to Green, you'd probably be saying that he'd beat Green. Green put his foot on the gas the last time they wrestled after building up a comfortable lead iirc. He was also handled by Kennedy, a guy who just recently moved into the weight class. Also, Mark Hall soundly defeated him. I like Nolf, but when the elites gather, he usually isn't the one getting his hand raised in the championship match. As of last year, I think Sorenson would have given him a really tough match.

 

A hydrated Zahid can score plenty. I think one-hour-weigh-in Zahid wrestles more defensively. I thought he would move up to 184 this year due to his bigger frame. If Zahid vs Bo happens, I'd like to see it in an NCAA semi-final.

Edited by bigmik

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I take Mark Hall as a safe favorite over both Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia if he were to actually fill out the weight. He was clearly undersized last year, but is on a different level technically than both of them.   If he stays undersized, I think it's a safe 1/3 split, but realistically 1/2 1/4 1/4 depending on the seedings at NCAAs.  

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mik, imo Nolf is still a freestyle novice. The fact he is already within 1 pt of Green speaks volumes, so if wrestles free full time I think he would eventually beat Green.

I doubt that he's consistently within one point. Green took his foot off of the gas. At the moment, he's probably not within a point of Green or Kennedy.

 

I'd like to see what Nolf would do at 165.

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I take Mark Hall as a safe favorite over both Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia if he were to actually fill out the weight. He was clearly undersized last year, but is on a different level technically than both of them.   If he stays undersized, I think it's a safe 1/3 split, but realistically 1/2 1/4 1/4 depending on the seedings at NCAAs.

 

I think Zahid is on par with him technically. Hall is better in scrambles and throws. Zahid is more solid with leg attacks.

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I doubt that he's consistently within one point. Green took his foot off of the gas. At the moment, he's probably not within a point of Green or Kennedy.

 

I'd like to see what Nolf would do at 165.

And the other 1 pt loss? Did Green give him a free pass in that one too?

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And the other 1 pt loss? Did Green give him a free pass in that one too?

Taking the foot off the gas is not the same as a "free pass". Once you're ahead by a point, that's all you need to win. You don't get an award for beating someone by three points instead of one. See Dake vs. Dieringer 2 and 3. Scores once and keeps solid position. That said, I don't remember the second one point match between Green and Nolf. When did this happen?

Edited by bigmik

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I take Mark Hall as a safe favorite over both Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia if he were to actually fill out the weight. He was clearly undersized last year, but is on a different level technically than both of them.   If he stays undersized, I think it's a safe 1/3 split, but realistically 1/2 1/4 1/4 depending on the seedings at NCAAs.  

What in their match could possibly lead you to believe Mark Hall is on another level technically from Valencia?  Hall won fair and square but nothing in that match says those guys are on different levels.

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What in their match could possibly lead you to believe Mark Hall is on another level technically from Valencia?  Hall won fair and square but nothing in that match says those guys are on different levels.

This is not based off of their match last year, in which I actually thought Zahid would win based on the size difference. I'm basing this off of the matches i've seen each wrestle.  Hall is one of the best technicians in the country right now regardless of age level, both in freestyle and folkstyle.  Mark Hall's results at 74 kg, his ideal weight, are extraordinary. If he were to fill out 174, I think  he'd beat both Jordan and Zahid comfortably (by 4-5 points).  

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This is not based off of their match last year, in which I actually thought Zahid would win based on the size difference. I'm basing this off of the matches i've seen each wrestle.  Hall is one of the best technicians in the country right now regardless of age level, both in freestyle and folkstyle.  Mark Hall's results at 74 kg, his ideal weight, are extraordinary. If he were to fill out 174, I think  he'd beat both Jordan and Zahid comfortably (by 4-5 points).

 

Hall has a lot of talent, but 4-5 points is a big stretch. From everything I've seen, Zahid is on par technically with Hall. I don't see how you draw a sharp distinction between the two.

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Taking the foot off the gas is not the same as a "free pass". Once you're ahead by a point, that's all you need to win. You don't get an award for beating someone by three points instead of one. See Dake vs. Dieringer 2 and 3. Scores once and keeps solid position. That said, I don't remember the second one point match between Green and Nolf. When did this happen?

 

 

My bad. I thought they had also met at WTT but they did not. Their only other result, I think, is the one from the Southern Scuffle during Nolf's true freshman year where Green won 7-4. Nolf did make the World team and got to train with Green this year so it should be interesting going forward. 

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I didn't tell you it was irrelevant how he won.  I said quoting your own previous statements about how he won was irrelevant.  That's not a bold statement by me, it's simply true.  If I say something more than once, it doesn't make it more true each time.  

 

And I agree BoJo has a shot with Hall.  Even if Hall grows in size and strength I think BoJo has a shot.  I just don't think he has a shot with Valencia who is bigger, longer, and more explosive than BoJo.  I think Valencia is the best guy in this weight but he has a hard time finishing on Hall.  I don't think that will change.  I think Hall is the best defensive guy but he hasn't shown an ability to get to his own offense yet.  That makes him vulnerable against guys who don't do much in neutral (Meyer, Jordan).  I don't think BoJo is good enough defensively to stop Valencia, and I don't think he has the offense to keep up in a shootout.

Not sure whose longer, and it's arguable whose more explosive between Valencia and Jordan when we see a completely healthy BoJo this season. But I assure you Valencia isn't bigger than Bo Jordan, unless he's wrestling a 174 BoJo at 184. One thing BoJo will never come up against at 174 is someone bigger or stronger than him. He's arguably one of the best put together 174's of all time. David Taylor said in an interview last season that all Penn State wrestlers refer to BoJo as simply Adonis. He's a genetic freak, and he's not short whatsoever. Zahid Valencia is a big kid, but he's not bigger than Bo Jordan.

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I don't think Nolf is a 99% guy. I could see Kemmerer being a worthy challenger this year. I wouldn't be shocked by an upset. The Nolf we've seen thus far is at least a level below Retherford and Snyder. His competition makes him appear better than he actually is imo.

 

I see a theme--you are not a big Nolf believer.  I believe you are wrong.  I see Nolf surpassing Green in 1-2 years despite one fully training for FS.  Your boy Heil--how has he done in FS?  Different standards?  3-4 people have a chance to beat Heil this season--not so with Nolf.  I wish Heil would have moved up to 149 to face Zain.  I know, he probably would have done quite well.  Guilibon had your boy scrambling (and pinned to a lot), and this isn't a much of an endorsement.  

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He was injure for 2 years straight, of course he has less matches than zain..

 

Mark hall has more bad losses on his record and he's only wrestled half the career matches bojo has. I expect to see him lose to an alex meyer type wrestler again this coming season at least once.

 

Also took on less challenges.  Who has Bo won?  Oh, a true Freshman who returned the favor despite being noticeably undersized.  

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Of course there's no literal asterisk.  Nobody says the 16-0 Patriots won the Super Bowl because Tyree makes a miracle grab off of his helmet.  Nobody says Golden State won the finals because Draymond got suspended for one too many low blows.  There's a million examples. 

 

BUT, when prognosticating results for the following season, or considering power rankings, why would you not take a questionable decision into account?  Mark Hall won the NCAA title, that's not in dispute. But the point is that if you're actually watching what's happening, it should be taken into account.  

 

They were not 16-0.  That was regular season.  

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