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Most to Least Likely to Win Weight Class


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#21 boconnell

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:46 AM

I really believe if Marstetler has his head on straight he can wrestle with any of them. Kutler tough as well. Very strong weight


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I think Rogers has a better shot than Marstellar or Kutler.  But I don't think any of those 3 has any chance at the title if everyone is healthy.  And yes, it's an extremely tough weight.  



#22 hammerlockthree

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:46 AM

If marstellar is gonna get passes on being a head case I think Alex Meyer should get a pass for being a modest athlete. 



#23 Perry

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:47 AM

You have hall way too high. The most underplayed story of last year is the calls he got on his way to the title.

 

Shhhh Hammerlock, you can't mention things that lead to the final result, only the final result itself apparently. Ignore the years of moaning about the JO/Stieber match because BoCon said these scenarios don't need to be mentioned. I honestly think the Hall/BoJo final is even WORSE than JO/Stieber because they had video review and still botched the call.

 

Charlie brings up a very valid point in the record between Hall and BoJo. They had two very close matches with each taking a win - Hall's win just happened two weeks later and with some highly suspect officiating. With things being pretty even that seems like pretty good criteria to me to pick BoJo over Hall in a rematch. I'd certainly put the odds at better than 10 or 15%. 

 

Edit to say I could see the argument that both Hall and Valencia will be stronger with another year of maturing and could negate some advantage that Bo had this year. That seems like a fair case that could be made.


Edited by Perry, 27 September 2017 - 05:48 AM.


#24 boconnell

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:53 AM

Shhhh Hammerlock, you can't mention things that lead to the final result, only the final result itself apparently. Ignore the years of moaning about the JO/Stieber match because BoCon said these scenarios don't need to be mentioned. I honestly think the Hall/BoJo final is even WORSE than JO/Stieber because they had video review and still botched the call.

 

Charlie brings up a very valid point in the record between Hall and BoJo. They had two very close matches with each taking a win - Hall's win just happened two weeks later and with some highly suspect officiating. With things being pretty even that seems like pretty good criteria to me to pick BoJo over Hall in a rematch. I'd certainly put the odds at better than 10 or 15%. 

 

Edit to say I could see the argument that both Hall and Valencia will be stronger with another year of maturing and could negate some advantage that Bo had this year. That seems like a fair case that could be made.

I didn't tell you it was irrelevant how he won.  I said quoting your own previous statements about how he won was irrelevant.  That's not a bold statement by me, it's simply true.  If I say something more than once, it doesn't make it more true each time.  

 

And I agree BoJo has a shot with Hall.  Even if Hall grows in size and strength I think BoJo has a shot.  I just don't think he has a shot with Valencia who is bigger, longer, and more explosive than BoJo.  I think Valencia is the best guy in this weight but he has a hard time finishing on Hall.  I don't think that will change.  I think Hall is the best defensive guy but he hasn't shown an ability to get to his own offense yet.  That makes him vulnerable against guys who don't do much in neutral (Meyer, Jordan).  I don't think BoJo is good enough defensively to stop Valencia, and I don't think he has the offense to keep up in a shootout.



#25 pish6969

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:57 AM

Sometimes the “IT” factor also plays a role. I just see some guys as guys who will win on the biggest of stages. Mark Hall is one of those guys. That gives him an edge. He wrestles the biggest of matches and wins. Snyder, Burroughs, Stevenson, Lee. These guys win every time when it matters most. You cannot discount that. I’m the biggest PSU fan but look at David Taylor. To me he’s been the best in his weight for years but yet to make a world team. It’s as if he tenses up, wrestled different, whatever it is he doesn’t win that BIG match. I see Hall as an IT guy and that has to count for something even though that may not be a physical attribute


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#26 steamboat_charlie

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:48 AM

I may be totally wrong.  I think Lewis is good enough to be in that group.  He had Joseph beat and ran out of gas.  He has a big frame (bigger than Jordan or Hall) and I think the move up in weight will do him well.  Maybe it helps the conditioning issues.  Maybe not.  I think he matches up well with Valencia because he's long, a decent athlete, and tough on top,.  And I think he matches up well with Hall for those reasons plus he doesn't do much in neutral so there isn't much to counter.  And remember I gave him a %5 chance.

 

As for a top 3, I just don't see it.  I think Jordan was behind those guys last year and they were freshman (Hall a TF).  I think the gap gets bigger not smaller.  I think Valencia is an especially bad matchup for Jordan because I think he finishes takedowns on him much easier than Hall.  

 

If Valencia is not in the weight then I do think Jordan is a very tough matchup for Hall, even if I think Hall is better.  Without Valencia I'd give Jordan a real chance.  I just don't see him beating both guys.

 

IMO, you're massively underrating Bo.  He's lost to 4 wrestlers in the entirety of his collegiate career.  We've already seen that he and Hall were basically an even matchup last year.  Hall won the one that counted most, sure, but its a razor thin margin.  I also expect Hall to be better this year as he's able to put on some more size and strength, but if Bo is healthy and able to train correctly, I think improvement on both sides is basically a wash.  

 

Transitive property never guarantees anything, but given that it's all we have to go by, Bo and Zahid's results against common opponents look basically identical.  Some of the matchup problems that you think Lewis presents to Zahid, Jordan does to an even greater extent.  And let's be real, a junior world silver medal is a great accomplishment, but it's not an indicator that he's made a leap over Bo.  

 

And I actually really like Lewis, but if he beats any of the top 3 next year I'll eat my own shoe.  



#27 boconnell

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:01 AM

IMO, you're massively underrating Bo.  He's lost to 4 wrestlers in the entirety of his collegiate career.  We've already seen that he and Hall were basically an even matchup last year.  Hall won the one that counted most, sure, but its a razor thin margin.  I also expect Hall to be better this year as he's able to put on some more size and strength, but if Bo is healthy and able to train correctly, I think improvement on both sides is basically a wash.  

 

Transitive property never guarantees anything, but given that it's all we have to go by, Bo and Zahid's results against common opponents look basically identical.  Some of the matchup problems that you think Lewis presents to Zahid, Jordan does to an even greater extent.  And let's be real, a junior world silver medal is a great accomplishment, but it's not an indicator that he's made a leap over Bo.  

 

And I actually really like Lewis, but if he beats any of the top 3 next year I'll eat my own shoe.  

Like I said, I could obviously be wrong.  But as for Jordan having the same qualities that I think makes Lewis a tough matchup for Valencia, I don't see it.  I think Jordan is every bit as tough on top as Lewis.  Much touger rider and maybe slightly less as a point scorer.  At least as good overall on top.  But I think that's the only of the 3 things I mentioned that apply to BoJo.  He is not long and he is not an athlete.  Or at least he hasn't been an athlete the last 2 years. 

 

If we get a BoJo who is totally healthy, totally energetic, not dealing with weight issues, not up too late from fatherhood, not dinged up, etc...then I will probably be totally wrong on my prediction.  But he has been a slow footed grinder the last 2+ years and I don't see that as a good matchup for Valencia.  



#28 Perry

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:02 AM

McKenna was a junior world silver medalist who placed 3rd his freshman year than failed to AA as a sophomore. I don't predict that kind of fallout from Zahid, but it is a somewhat interesting parallel one could draw. 174 is also not as deep as 141 by a long shot.



#29 boconnell

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:12 AM

McKenna was a junior world silver medalist who placed 3rd his freshman year than failed to AA as a sophomore. I don't predict that kind of fallout from Zahid, but it is a somewhat interesting parallel one could draw. 174 is also not as deep as 141 by a long shot.

John Smith didn't place as a freshman and neither did 100 freshman last year.  I think they are all on their way to 6 world titles. 

 

McKenna's placements at NCAAs are irrelevant to Valencia's in either direction. 


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#30 silver-medal

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:17 AM

Zahid Valencia was the best 174 in the country last season but Hall had PSU destiny on his side.  And the headgear pull call was legit....Bo Jordan wasn't even at 75% at NCAA's last year.  If healthy, he's a beast--although so are Hall and Zahid....Dean Heil gets a 50% from me.  I'd put him above that mark but the history of guys going after their 3rd titles has been ugly for last several years....Pat Downey is the elephant in the room at 184 or 197.  He's good enough to win either weight but not guaranteed to do it.  And what's the likelihood of him lasting a full season when he has a to get his academics and behavior issues in order?  I have no idea if he'll put it together or fall apart and move on to post-grad.  I do know he's very talented....Adam Coon isn't going to throw Kyle Snyder but crotch lift counters could work well for him.  His sheer size and considerable ability certainly make one wonder if the upset is possible.  



#31 steamboat_charlie

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:20 AM

Like I said, I could obviously be wrong.  But as for Jordan having the same qualities that I think makes Lewis a tough matchup for Valencia, I don't see it.  I think Jordan is every bit as tough on top as Lewis.  Much touger rider and maybe slightly less as a point scorer.  At least as good overall on top.  But I think that's the only of the 3 things I mentioned that apply to BoJo.  He is not long and he is not an athlete.  Or at least he hasn't been an athlete the last 2 years. 

 

If we get a BoJo who is totally healthy, totally energetic, not dealing with weight issues, not up too late from fatherhood, not dinged up, etc...then I will probably be totally wrong on my prediction.  But he has been a slow footed grinder the last 2+ years and I don't see that as a good matchup for Valencia.  

 

Disagree that Jordan isn't long... he and Zahid probably have comparable reach.  Both have the size advantage over Hall, in any case. 

 

Lucky for us we could see the matchup very soon.  ASU is set to come to Columbus for the first dual of the year on 11/12, and both go to CKLV.  Ryan has held guys out of duals in the past if they weren't 100% (and possibly to protect seeding, although that's usually later in the season), but all indications are that Bo is healthy and ready to go.  

 

Edit--one other thing, the weight cutting talk surrounding Bo is massively overblown.  Conditioning issues have been related to injuries and an inability to get on the mat, not because he's sucking too much weight.  The guy just looks enormous... always has. He walks around in the mid 180's in the off season.  


Edited by steamboat_charlie, 27 September 2017 - 07:24 AM.


#32 TBar1977

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:21 AM

Bo missed a lot of events so he has missed some guys that could have beaten him. I think he missed Zahid 3x last year.

Edited by TBar1977, 27 September 2017 - 07:21 AM.

I have set aside funds to have six Green Bay Packers be my pall bearers, that way they can let me down one final time. 


#33 boconnell

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:29 AM

Disagree that Jordan isn't long... he and Zahid probably have comparable reach.  Both have the size advantage over Hall, in any case. 

 

Lucky for us we could see the matchup very soon.  ASU is set to come to Columbus for the second dual of the year on 11/12, and both go to CKLV.  Ryan has held guys out of duals in the past if they weren't 100% (and possibly to protect seeding, although that's usually later in the season), but all indications are that Bo is healthy and ready to go.  

 

Edit--one other thing, the weight cutting talk surrounding Bo is massively overblown.  Conditioning issues have been related to injuries and an inability to get on the mat, not because he's sucking too much weight.  The guy just looks enormous... always has. He walks around in the mid 180's in the off season.  

When mentioning weight I was referring to 2 years ago when BoJo fans declared that he would have been putting up big points at 174 but the weight cut to 165 was too hard.  Then he went up to 174 and weight wasn't a problem and he still didn't score much because of injury.  And when weight and injury weren't a problem his status as a new father was the problem.  Now problem is relative because he still won almost all of the matches he wrestled.  He just looked slow footed and lacking in energy.  His best quality was how he gutted out wins.

 

Obviously if all of that truly was about bad luck and timing, and it all lines up perfectly this year, I have no problem believing we'll see a guy who is on a level with Hall and Valencia.  



#34 TBar1977

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:42 AM

Hall just accepted an invite to the NWCA all star classic. Would love to see Bo there.

I have set aside funds to have six Green Bay Packers be my pall bearers, that way they can let me down one final time. 


#35 lu1979

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:59 AM

It seems to me that "the field" is generally underrated in this thread. 20% (Cruz & ViJo) of last years winners were from "the field" - Neither of those guys would have been picked to be in the finals by most prognosticators at this time last year.  M Hall wasn't projected to start last year but I think a lot of people would have picked him to win if had they known he was competing.  

 

Anyway most years two or three guys who would not be high in the conversation win the NC and I expect the same will happen this year.  



#36 lu1979

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 08:18 AM

After making that general point on respecting the strength of the field I thought I would give this a shot:

 

149, 157 & Hvywt - All heavy favorites ZR, Nolf & KS all 90% to 10% for the field

 

125 - NaTo 20% - D Cruz, Suriano, & Litzak 15% ea. The field - 35%

 

133 - Gross , Micic, Brock 20%ea  Parker 15% Field 25%

 

141 - Heil 25% Yianni 20%  Jack, McKenna  15%ea  - Field 25%

 

165 - Imar 25% Massa 20% ViJo 20% - field 35%

 

174 - Big 3 MH, ZV & BoJo - 30 % ea - Field 10%

 

184 - BoN - 40%  MyMar 20%, PD3 15% Field 25%

 

197 - K Moore - 70%  field 30% - he hasn't demonstrated the dominance that Nolf has yet but I think we are going to see a similar style at a much heavier weight. 



#37 bigmik

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:47 AM

Shhhh Hammerlock, you can't mention things that lead to the final result, only the final result itself apparently. Ignore the years of moaning about the JO/Stieber match because BoCon said these scenarios don't need to be mentioned. I honestly think the Hall/BoJo final is even WORSE than JO/Stieber because they had video review and still botched the call.
 
Charlie brings up a very valid point in the record between Hall and BoJo. They had two very close matches with each taking a win - Hall's win just happened two weeks later and with some highly suspect officiating. With things being pretty even that seems like pretty good criteria to me to pick BoJo over Hall in a rematch. I'd certainly put the odds at better than 10 or 15%. 
 
Edit to say I could see the argument that both Hall and Valencia will be stronger with another year of maturing and could negate some advantage that Bo had this year. That seems like a fair case that could be made.


I think that you greatly overrate Bo Jordan. I'd be very interested to see an NCAA semi between Zahid and Bo and everyone's reactions afterwards.

#38 headshuck

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:33 AM

Pretty sure I was in the minority to choose Hall to win NCAAs a year ago. In fact it’s the only TBar “like” scar I have to show for it. While Hall may have gotten a break on his first, there’s no way he doesn’t accelerate beyond expectations and win his second.

#39 Plasmodium

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:38 AM

Pretty sure I was in the minority to choose Hall to win NCAAs a year ago. In fact it’s the only TBar “like” scar I have to show for it. While Hall may have gotten a break on his first, there’s no way he doesn’t accelerate beyond expectations and win his second.

Hall is great. He is going to give Kid Dynamite a run next year as well.

#40 TBar1977

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:44 AM

I just looked at Bo Jordan's record on wrestlestat. In my view just from watching him I think Bo Jordan is an elite wrestler, but I just would not use his record as evidence of such. 

 

Bo Jordan has less than a 70 percent win rate against top 10 ranked wrestlers

Bo Jordan has less than a 50 percent win rate against top 3 ranked wrestlers (in fairness, 99 percent of wrestlers have bad records against that kind of comp)

Bo Jordan has wrestled 3 seasons attached for Ohio State, with 3 Big10's and 3 NCAA appearances to go with that, but he has never touched an elite open tournament. No Cliff Keen, no Midlands, no Scuffle. Instead he has wrestled in the Michigan State Open, the Eastern Michigan Open, and the Storm Open the past 3 seasons. 

 

Finally, Bo Jordan's total record includes only 67 matches, for comparison's sake Zain Retherford has wrestled 99 matches in his 3 years attached. I believe Bo probably has a few more losses if he goes in the elite open tournaments. 


Edited by TBar1977, 27 September 2017 - 11:45 AM.

I have set aside funds to have six Green Bay Packers be my pall bearers, that way they can let me down one final time. 





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