There are 3 tiers imo:
125 - Tomasello still has to deal with Suriano who will be his main competition. There are a few dark horses but these are the clear front runners.
133 - Gross had a nice breakout year this past season. He's long for the weight and good everywhere. But at the end of the day, I think he's among the least battle tested of the front runners. Micic and Brock have good shots at beating him and Parker is a darkhorse. I wouldn't sleep on McKee either even though his game is more free than folk.
141 - Heil is Heil for better or for worse. With the new ruleset being a ding to his style and the shark tank that is 141, I can't give him a high percentage even though he consistently gets it done. Don't sleep on Eierman though. I think he has the best shot at dethroning Heil.
149 - L-word
157 - L-word
165 - Yes, IMar is my front runner. Yes, I'm a Penn State alum. I know. But let's look at facts. IMar has 2 titles under his belt and is 2-1 against Cenzo. Simply put, Cenzo wrestled out of his mind at NCAAs this year and a repeat is unlikely. Unfortunately, ranking sites have recency bias and automatically give a returning champ the #1 ranking when in certain instances, it's not warranted. Cruz shouldn't have been ranked above Suriano to start the year just like Cenzo shouldn't have been ranked above IMar. It's a 3 dog race but IMar has the best resume and the H2H edge. Can't pick against him.
174 - Zahid's size and aggression is tough for Hall and we saw what he did to Jordan. Hall has a strong shot if he can create scrambles but the edge goes to Z. Jordan has a slim chance to play spoiler if the stars align.
184 - Bo's style makes him a handful for anyone but it also leaves him vulnerable. Martin has 2 wins over him in 6 meetings. 67% is reasonable. 2 horse race. If MyMar takes one of his patented head-scratcher losses at NCAAs, Bo walks through the field.
197 - You have strong wrestler at the top of a weak weight. Haught might give him problems but I don't think anyone else will nor will I hold my breath thinking he will. He's the safest of the tier-2 guys. Moore's relentless neutral game will wear out even the best guys.
HWT - L-word