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How many AAs will each team have, outside of PSU, OSU, tOSU and Iowa?


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#21 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:53 AM

Best case scenario (without saying 10 obviously) I see Minny having 5, maybe 6 with those as follows...

 

125 Lizak - 1-4

 

133 McKee - 5-8

 

141 Thorn - 5-8

 

149 - Bleis - 5-8

 

157- Short - 5-8

 

197 - Steveson - 5-8

 

On a more realistic note I see MN having 3

 

125,133,141

 

The NCAAs always give us different results then we think would happen, it is scary that it isn't out of the realm of MN having 1 AA. 

Minnesota has a very solid team.  The problem is, I see them having a lot of R12 finishers.  The only AA's I see are Lizak and McKee.  Thorn is a stud, but 141 is ridiculous with Storr and Red adding to an already super deep weight.  Bleise and Short are just a tad short of top 8 talent.  Steveson is a reach, but maybe 197 does actually re-invigorate him.

 

I like them as a dual team, but they will struggle to make the top 12 at NCAA's.



#22 gopher_fan_90

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:54 AM

 

 

Barring injuries(which would effect every single team's projections) and a stupid decision on Downey's part, Sorenson, Kemerer, Downey and Stoll are locks.  All 4 are solidly top 6 in their weights if healthy.

 

 

 

I think Squeek's point on Still having the injuries is with his past Hx there is a better chance he will be injured come tourney time, than healthy. Nothing wrong with admitting it, some guys time table just strikes midnight a lot sooner than others. Most people never knew if Dake would return after a string of feet injuries. For the sake of competition I hope Stoll can get and stay healthy. 



#23 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:57 AM

I think Squeek's point on Still having the injuries is with his past Hx there is a better chance he will be injured come tourney time, than healthy. Nothing wrong with admitting it, some guys time table just strikes midnight a lot sooner than others. Most people never knew if Dake would return after a string of feet injuries. For the sake of competition I hope Stoll can get and stay healthy. 

I understand his point.  But, as an example,Gelogaev tore his pec 2 seasons in a row.  He still managed to come back and be a legitimate monster.  I understand the injuries, but I am not going to predict a 3rd season missed due to them.



#24 squeek

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:57 AM

I will bet whatever you will let me on the over.

Barring injuries(which would effect every single team's projections) and a stupid decision on Downey's part, Sorenson, Kemerer, Downey and Stoll are locks. All 4 are solidly top 6 in their weights if healthy.

Marinelli is extremely good. 165 is top heavy but not overly deep. After Martinez, Massa and Joseph it drops down to Rogers, Valencia, Womack, Walsh and Marstellar. There is no way I would put all 5 of those ahead of him to keep him off the podium.

Young is definitely the least talented, but 174 is another weight that drops off considerably after the top 4, with the other 4 AA's graduating. Preisch is strong and Lewis is moving up. Jacobe Smith has looked great. After that, who do you legitimately put ahead of him?

I could see 5 being a more safe prediction, but I know Iowa doesn't want to drop out of the top 5 and with the 6 AA's I predicted, that is where they should end up.

It's hard to respond to such an ignorant post.
I will try.

Gentlemen bet of $5 seems fair.
But the rules are we use the real world, not that special little place between your ears wear injuries don't occur. Where unstable transfer students with insane support networks find inner peace and harmony. Where fringe top 20 redshirt freshman overcome past results to carry home a top 5 finish just because to do otherwise would just be too upsetting.

Good luck

I will pm you after Cleveland so you know where to send payment

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#25 gopher_fan_90

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:58 AM

Minnesota has a very solid team.  The problem is, I see them having a lot of R12 finishers.  The only AA's I see are Lizak and McKee.  Thorn is a stud, but 141 is ridiculous with Storr and Red adding to an already super deep weight.  Bleise and Short are just a tad short of top 8 talent.  Steveson is a reach, but maybe 197 does actually re-invigorate him.

 

I like them as a dual team, but they will struggle to make the top 12 at NCAA's.

 

I would agree with just about all of that. It will be interesting to see how another year and the FS experience helps McKee. Thorn is definitely a talent mixed in with a dozen others. Both David and Mike improved each year and showed a lot of heart. Hoping Tommy can have the same results 



#26 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 04:02 AM

It's hard to respond to such an ignorant post.
I will try.

Gentlemen bet of $5 seems fair.
But the rules are we use the real world, not that special little place between your ears wear injuries don't occur. Where unstable transfer students with insane support networks find inner peace and harmony. Where fringe top 20 redshirt freshman overcome past results to carry home a top 5 finish just because to do otherwise would just be too upsetting.

Good luck

I will pm you after Cleveland so you know where to send payment

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The funny thing is you call my giving reasoning as ignorant.  The best part is, I don't even need Downey, Stoll or Young to make my bet.  Sorenson, Kemerer and Marinelli will get it done.  The other guys are just icing on the cake.  So, since I am so ignorant,  if Iowa doubles the over(5 AA's) will you pay me 2-1 on the Over?  If Iowa only has 1 AA, I will pay you 2.5-1.  An extra 5 shouldn't be too much for someone that so confidently expects payment, should it?


Edited by MSU158, 12 October 2017 - 04:03 AM.


#27 squeek

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 04:09 AM

The funny thing is you call my giving reasoning as ignorant. The best part is, I don't even need Downey, Stoll or Young to make my bet. Sorenson, Kemerer and Marinelli will get it done. The other guys are just icing on the cake. So, since I am so ignorant, if Iowa doubles the over(5 AA's) will you pay me 2-1 on the Over? If Iowa only has 1 AA, I will pay you 2.5-1. An extra 5 shouldn't be too much for someone that so confidently expects payment, should it?

I accept.

Also, please review my reply. I stated that your post was ignorant. You are the one that has implied that by posting ignorant things, that by default you are also ignorant. I hold no such belief.


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#28 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 04:19 AM

I accept.

Also, please review my reply. I stated that your post was ignorant. You are the one that has implied that by posting ignorant things, that by default you are also ignorant. I hold no such belief.


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Was well aware of your reply.  You may need to be the one that revisits a post.   I just found it laughable that you found giving detailed reasoning for predictions to be ignorant.  To me making blanket statements without a detailed breakdown is the epitome of ignorance.  Now I do admit I used the "ignorance" line to hopefully reel you into the bet and it worked!

 

Thank you for accepting the bet, and I look forward to settling up in March!


Edited by MSU158, 12 October 2017 - 04:21 AM.


#29 LaxHawk174

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 04:36 AM

Easy money for MSU lol. 



#30 WrestlingFan89

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 05:10 AM

You laugh at that as if it is unreasonable?


Sorenson, Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Downey and Stoll. Which of those is unreasonable?


Marinelli is in a deep weight, Young is up a weight and highly unproven, Stoll has trouble staying healthy and I don't believe Downey is a student at The University of Iowa yet, And you find it reasonable to project them to go 4 for 4, lol.

#31 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 05:19 AM

Marinelli is in a deep weight, Young is up a weight and highly unproven, Stoll has trouble staying healthy and I don't believe Downey is a student at The University of Iowa yet, And you find it reasonable to project them to go 4 for 4, lol.

It is fricking Iowa.  Does everyone forget that?  The lowest AA's they have had is 3 since 1969.  In fact, under Brands, the only time they had less than 4 was his first season and he has only had less than 5 one other season.  I wouldn't have an issue with you arguing against me.  It is the fact you act like it is ridiculous to predict it.  Proven teams consistently put guys on the podium.  That is a fact.  

 

Now, I would agree that 5 is more likely(unless Lee wrestles), but I really think those 6 will do it.  Plus, remember I picked all 80 AA's.  If I only picked super safe picks, I couldn't possibly pick all 80.

 

I simply refuse to let injuries dictate my picks.  I know Stoll has had 2 NCAA's ruined due to injury.  However, I have faith that everything being said about his recovery and dedication is true.  So, I did my predictions expecting all projected starters to be ready in March.



#32 wrestlingnerd

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:02 AM

It's hard to respond to such an ignorant post.
I will try.

Gentlemen bet of $5 seems fair.
But the rules are we use the real world, not that special little place between your ears wear injuries don't occur. Where unstable transfer students with insane support networks find inner peace and harmony. Where fringe top 20 redshirt freshman overcome past results to carry home a top 5 finish just because to do otherwise would just be too upsetting.

Good luck

I will pm you after Cleveland so you know where to send payment

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You’re really giving action on 2.5 AAs for Iowa???? Seriously, how high will you go?

#33 HokieFan

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:30 AM

MSU, based on your response about 165 I see you don't have McFadden as an AA and since you only have 2 VT AAs, who do you not see in the top 8 out of Chishko, Zavatsky and Haught?



#34 VakAttack

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:03 AM

You’re really giving action on 2.5 AAs for Iowa???? Seriously, how high will you go?

 

I believe Mr. Big Spender was all the way up to $5.


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#35 squeek

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:12 AM

I believe Mr. Big Spender was all the way up to $5.

$5 to get every jock hugging Hawkeye drone lit up. Better than a movie ticket.....

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#36 wrestlingnerd

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:37 AM

$5 to get every jock hugging Hawkeye drone lit up. Better than a movie ticket.....

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Sorry, but if it’s $5, that’s all anyone needs to know about your level of conviction. I’ll bet you $10k if you’re that confident. Serious offer.

Edited by wrestlingnerd, 12 October 2017 - 07:38 AM.

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#37 Flying-Tiger

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:18 AM

The season must be close as MSU breaks out his annual prediction of individual results that are at best a 50-50 proposition and then argues that every one will occur in order for his overall team prediction to be accurate. 

 

Barring injuries(which would effect every single team's projections) and a stupid decision on Downey's part, Sorenson, Kemerer, Downey and Stoll are locks.  All 4 are solidly top 6 in their weights if healthy.....So is the NCAA going to bar injuries and Downey from doing something stupid because otherwise they are legitimate factors that must be considered because most teams don't have guys with these kind of backgrounds in their lineups. In the end, it is just as likely that Stoll's leg gives out yet again or that Downey implodes in some way as it is that either AA.

 

Marinelli is extremely good.  165 is top heavy but not overly deep.  After Martinez, Massa and Joseph it drops down to Rogers, Valencia, Womack, Walsh and Marstellar.  There is no way I would put all 5 of those ahead of him to keep him off the podium....No, Marinelli has not proven to be extremely good. He faced two top 10 guys and got majored and pinned. Expect him to improve from last year, but he is just one of many talented wrestlers contending for AA at this point and could just as easily be a round of 12 guy. 

 

Young is definitely the least talented, but 174 is another weight that drops off considerably after the top 4, with the other 4 AA's graduating. Preisch is strong and Lewis is moving up. Jacobe Smith has looked great.  After that, who do you legitimately put ahead of him? Young had no quality wins last year and a couple suspect losses. Why would you legitimately put him ahead of any returning top 20 guy at this point other then to make a ridiculous prediction? 

 

Personally, I think its much more reasonable to project 2 AAs out of these four and then when combined with Sorenson and Kemerer, puts Iowa's over-under at 4. 


Edited by Flying-Tiger, 12 October 2017 - 08:44 AM.

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#38 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 09:07 AM

The season must be close as MSU breaks out his annual prediction of individual results that are at best a 50-50 proposition and then argues that every one will occur in order for his overall team prediction to be accurate. 

 

Barring injuries(which would effect every single team's projections) and a stupid decision on Downey's part, Sorenson, Kemerer, Downey and Stoll are locks.  All 4 are solidly top 6 in their weights if healthy.....So is the NCAA going to bar injuries and Downey from doing something stupid because otherwise they are legitimate factors that must be considered because most teams don't have guys with these kind of backgrounds in their lineups. In the end, it is just as likely that Stoll's leg gives out yet again or that Downey implodes in some way as it is that either AA.

 

Marinelli is extremely good.  165 is top heavy but not overly deep.  After Martinez, Massa and Joseph it drops down to Rogers, Valencia, Womack, Walsh and Marstellar.  There is no way I would put all 5 of those ahead of him to keep him off the podium....No, Marinelli has not proven to be extremely good. He faced two top 10 guys and got majored and pinned. Expect him to improve from last year, but he is just one of many talented wrestlers contending for AA at this point and could just as easily be a round of 12 guy. 

 

Young is definitely the least talented, but 174 is another weight that drops off considerably after the top 4, with the other 4 AA's graduating. Preisch is strong and Lewis is moving up. Jacobe Smith has looked great.  After that, who do you legitimately put ahead of him? Young had no quality wins last year and a couple suspect losses. Why would you legitimately put him ahead of any returning top 20 guy at this point other then to make a ridiculous prediction? 

 

Personally, I think its much more reasonable to project 2 AAs out of these four and then when combined with Sorenson and Kemerer, puts Iowa's over-under at 4. 

I think your over under of 4 is right on.  Honestly, I have no issue with any of your arguments against those 4.  However, I am not going to NOT pick Stoll because of his prior injuries, just like I didn't not pick Nevills because of his.  As far as Downey goes, he seems to be doing what he is supposed to ever since he said he was going to Iowa.  This is his last chance at NCAA's and that is the most motivation he has ever had.  Now, I am not saying he isn't a douchebag.  Just one motivated to not let that get in the way.

 

Finally, Marinelli and Young.  I wholeheartedly disagree with you about Marinelli.  I think you will be very impressed with him this season. He was a very undersized 165 and had results similar to David Taylor as a True Freshman with similar accolades coming into DI.  Now, I am not saying he will have a David Taylor like RS Freshman season, but you WILL see him on the podium.  Not picking Young is very understandable.  I picked him because I think 174 is wide open after the top 4.



#39 MSU158

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 09:11 AM

MSU, based on your response about 165 I see you don't have McFadden as an AA and since you only have 2 VT AAs, who do you not see in the top 8 out of Chishko, Zavatsky and Haught?

Zavatsky.  Like I said, these are very hard to do.  I decided to go with Abounader instead and it was tough.  Also, I really wanted to go with McFadden, but that meant my pulling Marstellar off the podium.

 

Again, these are very hard to do at the beginning of the season and you inevitably get criticized for several picks.  But, if you only do the safe picks there is no way you can get to 80 and you will end up being questioned no matter what you do.

 

Plus, this is before the season even starts.  Come March, I am sure quite a few of these will change with several guys surprising.



#40 wrestlingnerd

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 10:20 AM

Finally, Marinelli and Young. I wholeheartedly disagree with you about Marinelli. I think you will be very impressed with him this season. He was a very undersized 165 and had results similar to David Taylor as a True Freshman with similar accolades coming into DI. Now, I am not saying he will have a David Taylor like RS Freshman season, but you WILL see him on the podium. Not picking Young is very understandable. I picked him because I think 174 is wide open after the top 4.


I don’t know enough about Young but fully agree with your take on Marinelli. I’ve watched almost every one of his matches since his sophomore year in HS and really like what I see. In many ways, he is a perfect recruit for the Brands’ style and will do damage this season. He has a lot of similarities to Metcalf except he wasn’t as good coming out of HS. He is going to do very well for Iowa over the years, and I expect the addition of Mark Perry to the Iowa staff to have a direct impact on Marinelli’s progress.

Edited by wrestlingnerd, 12 October 2017 - 10:20 AM.

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