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nom

Penn State is still gonna win

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I see all this hooting and hollering about Ohio State.  Easy boys.  Penn State is still going to take the title.  Too many sure thing hammers with tons of bonus points.  And no, I'm not a Penn State homer.  I'm a realist.

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Can you give your point breakdown for each? It is a bit silly at this point in the season to be confident in either team

 

If one PSU hammer is injured, they will lose.

 

Ohio State has more AAs most likely, but fewer high placements and less bonus.

 

It is incredibly close.

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Can you give your point breakdown for each? It is a bit silly at this point in the season to be confident in either team

 

If one PSU hammer is injured, they will lose.

 

Ohio State has more AAs most likely, but fewer high placements and less bonus.

 

It is incredibly close.

Here's my breakdown.

 

Pletcher- Not 2nd

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It will be close but I think Penn State has much less room for error compared to tosu. I don't think vincenzo or hall will score as many points (though I want vincenzo to win it) and I agree that Nick lee doesn't aa. Pletcher won't place second more than likely either. So I agree with multiple people in this thread so far.

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Can you give your point breakdown for each? It is a bit silly at this point in the season to be confident in either team

If one PSU hammer is injured, they will lose.

Ohio State has more AAs most likely, but fewer high placements and less bonus.

It is incredibly close.

Any team that loses a hammer will lose. The OP’s point is that as things stand PSU are the favorites.

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The only guys on each team who are overwhelmingly likely to win it again are Snyder and Retherford.  They are just much better than the rest of their competitors.  Everyone else--Tomasello and Moore for Ohio State--Joseph, Hall, Nickal and Nolf for PSU--will face stiffer comp this year.  I could be way off but Pantaleo in particular looks like a guy with a style that could really give Nolf a hard time.  Nickal and Martin are closer to even than PSU fans want to admit.  Joseph is excellent but the depth of that weight and presence of Imar are still huge obstacles.  Hall can beat anyone but Zahid is the favorite at the moment.  Moore is a quiet favorite at 197 but looked a bit unsteady in Vegas.

 

In my opinion, the Buckeyes have to stay healthy while for PSU it's more about their Big Five remaining unhurt.  Also, Nevills has quietly emerged as a potential finalist.  That's big.  If I had to bet right now, I'd take PSU because Cael has demonstrated repeatedly that he has his guys ready when it matters most.  Yet tOSU has also performed very well at end of season.  They just haven't had the same level of talent.

 

Fun stuff.  Three months still to go.  The only certainty is that every time one of either team's studs loses or has a close match, we'll have some crazy reactions on this board.  

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I see all this hooting and hollering about Ohio State.  Easy boys.  Penn State is still going to take the title.  Too many sure thing hammers with tons of bonus points.  And no, I'm not a Penn State homer.  I'm a realist.

I have to disagree

 

The top 5 guys for each team gives a slight edge tp PSU - two are potential head to head match ups so those results obviously makes a big difference.  BP favors PSU by 5 to 10 pts at most.

 

Zain vs Snyder

Nolf vs Moore

Bo N vs MyMar

Hall vs BoJo

ViJo vs NaTo

 

Now compare NCAA point scoring potential for the remaining 5 guys in the lineup.  I am going to include Lee even though his RS hasn't been pulled yet.

 

Nevills vs MiJo

Cassar vs Hayes

Lee (or JC) vs McKenna

Keener vs Pletcher

Scnupp vs Campbell

 

The point scoring potential for this group greatly favors Ohio St both in potential AA/placement points and in likely Bonus points. It's hard to look at these two line ups and see any way that PSU can be favored entering into the NCAA tourney.  Obviously that assumes that both lineups are relatively healthy.  As stated in previous posts if either team loses someone it changes things.  

Edited by lu1979

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I look at it way more simply because you can really rack your brain thinking of all the various scoring permutations which never end up being all that accurate anyway. What’s more likely, that 4 of the 5 defending champs at PSU repeat, or that tOSU gets 2 champs and 5 other AAs? I’m leaning towards the latter.

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I see all this hooting and hollering about Ohio State.  Easy boys.  Penn State is still going to take the title.  Too many sure thing hammers with tons of bonus points.  And no, I'm not a Penn State homer.  I'm a realist.

You may be right, Nom... But the rest of us can still dream!!

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 I could be way off but Pantaleo in particular looks like a guy with a style that could really give Nolf a hard time.

I hope we get to see the match on January 12th in the dual. I have the opposite idea about Pantaleo. I think he can keep it close for awhile and may even get a takedown, but I think he will crumble in the 3rd. 

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PSU has proven too many times that they peak at NCAA's.  That is why I simply can't pick against them.  But, the reason this 2 team race is so intriguing is that tOSU has several guys that have proven they are ready in March as well. tOSU has 3 Seniors that have placed top 3 every year in Snyder, NaTo and BoJo.  They then have a former NC in Martin that is 2 for 2 (1st,5th). 4 guys that are 11 for 11 with only 1 finish outside the top 3 is very strong. You then have 2 more guys that have finished no worse than R12 in McKenna(3rd,R12) and Jordan(R12,4th).  That doesn't even include the favorite at 197 that took 3rd last year as a freshman.  Finally 2 of the remaining 3 have solid NCAA Tournament experience with Pletcher going 2-2 as a freshman up a weight at 141 and Campbell qualifying as a TF and then going 2-2 last season as a True Soph.  That leaves Hayes(he showed he is AA material by beating Thomsen at Cliff Keen) as the only guy on the roster that has no NCAA Tourney experience with every other guy at least winning 2 matches last season.

 

So, I don't think PSU is going to win it because of tOSU folding/underperforming.  They should win it by their best guys continuing to maximize their potential. 110+ out of their big 5.  Another 25 between 197 and 285.  Anything from 125-141 would be gravy.

 

tOSU absolutely has the firepower to beat PSU, but doesn't have the big point locks outside of Snyder to have ANY margin for error.  NaTo, BoJo and Martin taking 3rdish would absolutely not be bad performances, but just wouldn't get tOSU enough points considering there is a 7 point difference between 1st and 3rd without factoring bonus.

 

Honestly, I see 9 AA's out of tOSU, but too many 3rd-5th type finishes to cover the spread.  For them to win, they need at least 3 Champs.  IF, they get 3, PSU will need their 5 again.

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I look at it way more simply because you can really rack your brain thinking of all the various scoring permutations which never end up being all that accurate anyway. What’s more likely, that 4 of the 5 defending champs at PSU repeat, or that tOSU gets 2 champs and 5 other AAs? I’m leaning towards the latter.

I agree, tOSU looks favored under that scenario.

 

that said, and as you acknowledge, way too may variables to know for sure. This could be a team title on line PSU v tOSU in last match of the tournament nail biter, or one team could fall back / under perform while other catches fire and we end up with a 30 point gap.   

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PSU has proven too many times that they peak at NCAA's. That is why I simply can't pick against them. But, the reason this 2 team race is so intriguing is that tOSU has several guys that have proven they are ready in March as well. tOSU has 3 Seniors that have placed top 3 every year in Snyder, NaTo and BoJo. They then have a former NC in Martin that is 2 for 2 (1st,5th). 4 guys that are 11 for 11 with only 1 finish outside the top 3 is very strong. You then have 2 more guys that have finished no worse than R12 in McKenna(3rd,R12) and Jordan(R12,4th). That doesn't even include the favorite at 197 that took 3rd last year as a freshman. Finally 2 of the remaining 3 have solid NCAA Tournament experience with Pletcher going 2-2 as a freshman up a weight at 141 and Campbell qualifying as a TF and then going 2-2 last season as a True Soph. That leaves Hayes(he showed he is AA material by beating Thomsen at Cliff Keen) as the only guy on the roster that has no NCAA Tourney experience with every other guy at least winning 2 matches last season.

 

So, I don't think PSU is going to win it because of tOSU folding/underperforming. They should win it by their best guys continuing to maximize their potential. 110+ out of their big 5. Another 25 between 197 and 285. Anything from 125-141 would be gravy.

 

tOSU absolutely has the firepower to beat PSU, but doesn't have the big point locks outside of Snyder to have ANY margin for error. NaTo, BoJo and Martin taking 3rdish would absolutely not be bad performances, but just wouldn't get tOSU enough points considering there is a 7 point difference between 1st and 3rd without factoring bonus.

 

Honestly, I see 9 AA's out of tOSU, but too many 3rd-5th type finishes to cover the spread. For them to win, they need at least 3 Champs. IF, they get 3, PSU will need their 5 again.

Please I BEG you to change your pick.

 

You are the kiss of death, the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, black cat, snake eyes, the guy everyone gets away from at a crap table, etc

 

I would be willing to mail you a breakfast coupon of your choice to pick anyone else.

 

This is some real BS MSU. Every year I can count on paying taxes and you picking against PSU. This year you are using this reverse psychology. Like I said. Breakfast of your choice to change the pick

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited by pish6969

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tOSU would have to pull a Michigan (referring to their performance so far) for there to be a 30-point gap. I don’t see that as a reasonable outcome.

 

I want to add one more thing. No team is helped as much by graduation as tOSU. Gilman (Nato’s nemesis), gone. Gabe Dean and Sammy Brooks (Martin’s nemesis), gone (Martin almost a lock to be a finalist now). Cox, gone (Moore a heavy favorite now). Gwiaz, gone (Snyder could very possibly bonus his way through the whole tournament now). Add to tOSU McKenna, Hayes, and Campbell (who knows how to bonus even if he’s nowhere near a lock to AA) on top of that and you have a very different situation from last year, when PSU delivered near perfection. It’s a LOT closer this year than most are thinking.

 

Then add the MSU158 curse. That’s a lot.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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Please I BEG you to change your pick.

 

You are the kiss of death, the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, etc.

 

I would be willing to mail you a breakfast coupon of your choice to pick anyone else.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Complete misnomer.

 

I get all the PSU faithful riled up because I give data on why others are pre or early season favorites.  Once the rubber hits the road and the brackets are out, I have only missed one year since Iowa started their run in 2008.  Hell, even the year that I was all over OkState, once Klimara and Brock went down I picked PSU.

 

In fact, I was in the minority that was all over tOSU, the year they won, start to finish.

Edited by MSU158

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Complete misnomer.

 

I get all the PSU faithful riled up because I give data on why others are pre or early season favorites. Once the rubber hits the road and the brackets are out, I have only missed one year since Iowa started their run in 2008. Hell, even the year that I was all over OkState, once Klimara and Brock went down I picked PSU.

 

In fact, I was in the minority that was all over tOSU, the year they won, start to finish.

I swear to you I don’t want to argue. I just want you to change your pick.

 

What is number 1 breakfast place in your area? $25 gift card if you please pick someone else

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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