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Penn State is still gonna win


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#21 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:38 AM

PSU has proven too many times that they peak at NCAA's. That is why I simply can't pick against them. But, the reason this 2 team race is so intriguing is that tOSU has several guys that have proven they are ready in March as well. tOSU has 3 Seniors that have placed top 3 every year in Snyder, NaTo and BoJo. They then have a former NC in Martin that is 2 for 2 (1st,5th). 4 guys that are 11 for 11 with only 1 finish outside the top 3 is very strong. You then have 2 more guys that have finished no worse than R12 in McKenna(3rd,R12) and Jordan(R12,4th). That doesn't even include the favorite at 197 that took 3rd last year as a freshman. Finally 2 of the remaining 3 have solid NCAA Tournament experience with Pletcher going 2-2 as a freshman up a weight at 141 and Campbell qualifying as a TF and then going 2-2 last season as a True Soph. That leaves Hayes(he showed he is AA material by beating Thomsen at Cliff Keen) as the only guy on the roster that has no NCAA Tourney experience with every other guy at least winning 2 matches last season.

So, I don't think PSU is going to win it because of tOSU folding/underperforming. They should win it by their best guys continuing to maximize their potential. 110+ out of their big 5. Another 25 between 197 and 285. Anything from 125-141 would be gravy.

tOSU absolutely has the firepower to beat PSU, but doesn't have the big point locks outside of Snyder to have ANY margin for error. NaTo, BoJo and Martin taking 3rdish would absolutely not be bad performances, but just wouldn't get tOSU enough points considering there is a 7 point difference between 1st and 3rd without factoring bonus.

Honestly, I see 9 AA's out of tOSU, but too many 3rd-5th type finishes to cover the spread. For them to win, they need at least 3 Champs. IF, they get 3, PSU will need their 5 again.

Please I BEG you to change your pick.

You are the kiss of death, the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, black cat, snake eyes, the guy everyone gets away from at a crap table, etc

I would be willing to mail you a breakfast coupon of your choice to pick anyone else.

This is some real BS MSU. Every year I can count on paying taxes and you picking against PSU. This year you are using this reverse psychology. Like I said. Breakfast of your choice to change the pick


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Edited by pish6969, 06 December 2017 - 06:44 AM.

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#22 wrestlingnerd

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:41 AM

tOSU would have to pull a Michigan (referring to their performance so far) for there to be a 30-point gap. I don’t see that as a reasonable outcome.

I want to add one more thing. No team is helped as much by graduation as tOSU. Gilman (Nato’s nemesis), gone. Gabe Dean and Sammy Brooks (Martin’s nemesis), gone (Martin almost a lock to be a finalist now). Cox, gone (Moore a heavy favorite now). Gwiaz, gone (Snyder could very possibly bonus his way through the whole tournament now). Add to tOSU McKenna, Hayes, and Campbell (who knows how to bonus even if he’s nowhere near a lock to AA) on top of that and you have a very different situation from last year, when PSU delivered near perfection. It’s a LOT closer this year than most are thinking.

Then add the MSU158 curse. That’s a lot.

Edited by wrestlingnerd, 06 December 2017 - 06:43 AM.

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#23 MSU158

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:41 AM

Please I BEG you to change your pick.

You are the kiss of death, the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, etc.

I would be willing to mail you a breakfast coupon of your choice to pick anyone else.


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Complete misnomer.

 

I get all the PSU faithful riled up because I give data on why others are pre or early season favorites.  Once the rubber hits the road and the brackets are out, I have only missed one year since Iowa started their run in 2008.  Hell, even the year that I was all over OkState, once Klimara and Brock went down I picked PSU.

 

In fact, I was in the minority that was all over tOSU, the year they won, start to finish.


Edited by MSU158, 06 December 2017 - 06:43 AM.


#24 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:46 AM

Complete misnomer.

I get all the PSU faithful riled up because I give data on why others are pre or early season favorites. Once the rubber hits the road and the brackets are out, I have only missed one year since Iowa started their run in 2008. Hell, even the year that I was all over OkState, once Klimara and Brock went down I picked PSU.

In fact, I was in the minority that was all over tOSU, the year they won, start to finish.


I swear to you I don’t want to argue. I just want you to change your pick.

What is number 1 breakfast place in your area? $25 gift card if you please pick someone else


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#25 denny

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:51 AM

Ohio State wins B1Gs, Penn State wins the NCAA title comfortably.

 

 

Vak,

I understand. Although I would love to hear your breakdown (or up) RE : " Ohio State wins BIGs."  Thanks



#26 MSU158

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:51 AM

I swear to you I don’t want to argue. I just want you to change your pick.

What is number 1 breakfast place in your area? $25 gift card if you please pick someone else


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For your purposes feel free to say I picked tOSU.  Every PSU fan inaccurately depicts what I predict anyway.  No gift card necessary.



#27 KTG119

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:54 AM

Ohio State wins B1Gs, Penn State wins the NCAA title comfortably.

deja vu all over again?



#28 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:56 AM

For your purposes feel free to say I picked tOSU. Every PSU fan inaccurately depicts what I predict anyway. No gift card necessary.


That will not work and you know it. I need you to change your public pick.

Yes you come around at the end of the year and get it right. By then its obvious. It’s your preseason picks that have been wrong for 6 out of 7. I believe you did pick tOSU the year they won.

That’s why I say you are the jinx. I am not questioning your knowledge of the sport


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#29 VakAttack

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:02 AM

Vak,

I understand. Although I would love to hear your breakdown (or up) RE : " Ohio State wins BIGs."  Thanks

 

Put simply, Ohio State has a more complete lineup that will score points, and importantly placement points throughout, and there will be fewer rounds of wrestling with the smaller brackets, so less opportunity for Penn State's bonus machine to separate them to make up for that gap.


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#30 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:17 AM

I could be way off but Pantaleo in particular looks like a guy with a style that could really give Nolf a hard time..

You must have been out of your mind when you made this statement. Do you remember what Zain would do to Pantaleo? Nolf will be just as bad.

Enlighten me as to what Pantaleo brings that you think will make it hard on Nolf?


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Edited by pish6969, 06 December 2017 - 07:19 AM.


#31 silver-medal

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:28 AM

You must have been out of your mind when you made this statement. Do you remember what Zain would do to Pantaleo? Nolf will be just as bad.

Enlighten me as to what Pantaleo brings that you think will make it hard on Nolf?


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1) Wrestlers are allowed to get better.  Pantaleo looked in Vegas like a guy who had figured out his own style and was comfortable in it.

2) He's very strong and hard to score on.  His stance and power will slow down Nolf a lot.

3) He's very good at capitalizing on mistakes as we saw vs Berger and Micah.  

 

Watch his video in Vegas.  I'm sure it won't sway you but he looked dmn good.



#32 denny

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:29 AM

Put simply,  Ohio State has a more complete hammer lineup (no secret) that will score points, and importantly placement points throughout, and there will be fewer rounds of wrestling with the smaller brackets, so less opportunity for Penn State's bonus machine to separate them to make up for that gap.

 

 

 

Very good

 

I am committed to the thoughts that hammer wrestling, perhaps 6 this year, will more than compensate for this "placement points" verbiage.  But I get it Vak.



#33 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:34 AM

1) Wrestlers are allowed to get better. Pantaleo looked in Vegas like a guy who had figured out his own style and was comfortable in it.
2) He's very strong and hard to score on. His stance and power will slow down Nolf a lot.
3) He's very good at capitalizing on mistakes as we saw vs Berger and Micah.

Watch his video in Vegas. I'm sure it won't sway you but he looked dmn good.


I saw him in Vegas. He had a great tourney. He also got lit up by Clagon, Shields and someone else I missed. Nolf is in a different league. I’m not saying Pantaleo not an AA contender but against Nolf I’d be shocked for anything less than a tech


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#34 Gantry

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:42 AM

Pantaleo lost a couple weeks ago to Ian Brown, the guy Nolf just tech falled and pinned the year before.



#35 MSU158

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

That will not work and you know it. I need you to change your public pick.

Yes you come around at the end of the year and get it right. By then its obvious. It’s your preseason picks that have been wrong for 6 out of 7. I believe you did pick tOSU the year they won.

That’s why I say you are the jinx. I am not questioning your knowledge of the sport


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You haven't been around here that long.  The last 2 years I definitely wasn't on the bandwagon early, but they had a lot of unknowns to start each season.  But, their run prior to tOSU I was on PSU start to finish, except for their first year when no one was picking them to beat Cornell, let alone Iowa, pre/early season.  So, no, now I HOPE I actually have some jinx(that I really don't have) just because of your expected inaccuracy!



#36 KTG119

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:01 AM

tOSU would have to pull a Michigan (referring to their performance so far) for there to be a 30-point gap. I don’t see that as a reasonable outcome.

 

I don't think it's likely either but it could happen, for example:

 

1997

Ok St beats Iowa in dual. 

Ok St comes in seeded 1-1-2-2-2-4-5-10-US-US 

Iowa comes in seeded   1-1-1-4-5-6-11-US-US-US

Iowa wins by 50+ 

 

my guess is this one ends up 10 points or less. better even if we get the nail biter scenario...how awesome would it be if it's that tight and they order the finals so the last match is Snyder v Nevills and Snyder need to pin to win team title? Or 184 is last match and Nickal v Martin decides the whole thing? 



#37 pish6969

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:11 AM

You haven't been around here that long. The last 2 years I definitely wasn't on the bandwagon early, but they had a lot of unknowns to start each season. But, their run prior to tOSU I was on PSU start to finish, except for their first year when no one was picking them to beat Cornell, let alone Iowa, pre/early season. So, no, now I HOPE I actually have some jinx(that I really don't have) just because of your expected inaccuracy!

You’re correct. I’ve been reading this forum from the last David Taylor championship. I don’t recall you picking PSU that year. The next year you picked tOSU and the last 2 yrs you picked Okie State. As far as the years prior to my finding this forum it’s been mentioned by others you picked against PSU then but I can’t comment since I wasn’t here


I wish you would just pick Okie State again as that has been the magic formula. $25 breakfast coupon still on the table

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Edited by pish6969, 06 December 2017 - 08:13 AM.


#38 wrestlingnerd

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

I see Nolf as a lock but I can see the argument for Panteleo keeping it respectable WHEN HE IS ON. To keep it close with Nolf, you have to have some sort of athletic advantage and know how to exploit it (I’m talking about D1 level athletes only). You’re not going to out-technique him. You’re not going to outsmart him. You’re certainly not going to outlast him. You have to be way stronger and more powerful than him (a la Imart) or so athletic that he can’t just chain together a dozen moves without putting himself at great risk. Pantaleo is one of the most athletic wrestlers st any weight. He is an elite parkour athlete with a tremendous sense of body control and balance. He is strong as hell physically, similar to Imart in build. He can’t touch Nolf technically, and most times, will get overwhelmed physically by attrition. But when he is on, I could see him hanging in there and threatening a few times. He’s also a volatile performer so if Nolf catches him on a bad day, it won’t be pretty.

Edited by wrestlingnerd, 06 December 2017 - 08:18 AM.


#39 Housebuye

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

PSU has proven too many times that they peak at NCAA's.  That is why I simply can't pick against them.  But, the reason this 2 team race is so intriguing is that tOSU has several guys that have proven they are ready in March as well. tOSU has 3 Seniors that have placed top 3 every year in Snyder, NaTo and BoJo.  They then have a former NC in Martin that is 2 for 2 (1st,5th). 4 guys that are 11 for 11 with only 1 finish outside the top 3 is very strong. You then have 2 more guys that have finished no worse than R12 in McKenna(3rd,R12) and Jordan(R12,4th).  That doesn't even include the favorite at 197 that took 3rd last year as a freshman.  Finally 2 of the remaining 3 have solid NCAA Tournament experience with Pletcher going 2-2 as a freshman up a weight at 141 and Campbell qualifying as a TF and then going 2-2 last season as a True Soph.  That leaves Hayes(he showed he is AA material by beating Thomsen at Cliff Keen) as the only guy on the roster that has no NCAA Tourney experience with every other guy at least winning 2 matches last season.

 

So, I don't think PSU is going to win it because of tOSU folding/underperforming.  They should win it by their best guys continuing to maximize their potential. 110+ out of their big 5.  Another 25 between 197 and 285.  Anything from 125-141 would be gravy.

 

tOSU absolutely has the firepower to beat PSU, but doesn't have the big point locks outside of Snyder to have ANY margin for error.  NaTo, BoJo and Martin taking 3rdish would absolutely not be bad performances, but just wouldn't get tOSU enough points considering there is a 7 point difference between 1st and 3rd without factoring bonus.

 

Honestly, I see 9 AA's out of tOSU, but too many 3rd-5th type finishes to cover the spread.  For them to win, they need at least 3 Champs.  IF, they get 3, PSU will need their 5 again.

Solid post

 

If tOSU gets 9 AAs, they are very likely to win. 

 

They are favorites to win title at 197 and HVWT, plus are serious contenders at 184 and 125. There is an outside chance at 174 and 141. 

 

I think they will not only have 8+ AAs, but likely 6 in the top 4. THAT will be almost impossible to beat.

 

Theoretically, Ohio State could have all of their guys wrestle to seed and still lose to PSU. THAT WOULD BE INSANE. That is likely 10AAs and 2 champs.

 

Craziest year on paper in NCAA recent history. 



#40 LemonPie

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:35 AM

Solid post

 

If tOSU gets 9 AAs, they are very likely to win. 

 

They are favorites to win title at 197 and HVWT, plus are serious contenders at 184 and 125. There is an outside chance at 174 and 141. 

 

I think they will not only have 8+ AAs, but likely 6 in the top 4. THAT will be almost impossible to beat.

 

Theoretically, Ohio State could have all of their guys wrestle to seed and still lose to PSU. THAT WOULD BE INSANE. That is likely 10AAs and 2 champs.

 

Craziest year on paper in NCAA recent history. 

and yet you keep calling PSU the favorites, which is clearly not the case. 


Anyone but Heil '18

 

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