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Fix making NCAA debut at RenoTOC

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I hope Coach Smith pulls his redshirt.

.

Me too.

And Spencer Lee.

 

I want to see Lee, Fix, Suriano, and Nato all in the semis.

 

We always talk about parity and what's good for the sport. Those 4 super studs going at it at the same time is what's good for the sport.

Edited by BigTenFanboy

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It has never been confirmed when exactly Tomasello's injury occurred but he did injure his knee during his match with Fix, that we know for certain. Did it have an impact on the outcome? No one knows for sure but it wouldn't be out of question if it did.

Edited by Aviator12

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I don't disagree. I'm not saying it would be an easy win for Fix. Nato gave fix all he could handle at u23s.

As for Gilman, there's a couple issues here. I think he wrestled his worst match of the season against Cruz in the semis. Had that match been wrestled 10 min earlier or later, I would have picked Gilman to win. 2 he absolutely got on a hot streak. 3 he beat wrestlers that have defeated him in the past in freestyle. Yes he dominated Megaludis, but Megaludis also had several wins over him in both styles. You can chalk that up to improvement.

 

Plus there is an ungodly amount of luck at Worlds. The draws seemingly have no rhyme or reason and the repechage system is pure ****. Winning Gold...well, that's one thing, but it's very possible to get a favorable draw (if you aren't on the same side of the bracket as the champ). Get a little hot, or your opponents have a bad day, and boom, yer in the finals.  I'm not a big fan of FS, but I'd suggest that Gilman was in the sweet spot of his bracket and got a little bit lucky. Kinda like Kindig in 2014 at NCAAs (or Tsirtsis for that matter at the same tourney).  Maybe I'm wrong, if so Gilman will prove it by medalling at Worlds in the future, but I think he got lucky with the silver.

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Plus there is an ungodly amount of luck at Worlds. The draws seemingly have no rhyme or reason and the repechage system is pure ****. Winning Gold...well, that's one thing, but it's very possible to get a favorable draw (if you aren't on the same side of the bracket as the champ). Get a little hot, or your opponents have a bad day, and boom, yer in the finals. I'm not a big fan of FS, but I'd suggest that Gilman was in the sweet spot of his bracket and got a little bit lucky. Kinda like Kindig in 2014 at NCAAs (or Tsirtsis for that matter at the same tourney). Maybe I'm wrong, if so Gilman will prove it by medalling at Worlds in the future, but I think he got lucky with the silver.

Gilman beat everyone in front of him at the wtt's and had another great tournament at Worlds. Luck? I don't think so.

 

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Gilman beat everyone in front of him at the wtt's and had another great tournament at Worlds. Luck? I don't think so.

 

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

I do think some luck was involved in his draws. The current rankings of the guys he beat on the way to finishing 2nd: Jong #18, Safarov - UNR, Atrinagharch #15, Yatsenko #10. Gilman had a good run at worlds, but he wasn't beating the world's best on his way to a silver otherwise he'd have beaten some higher ranked guys than #10. 

Edited by TobusRex

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Yes but let's use Jamil Kelly for an example. 0x AA. In 2004, I would say he probably beats those guys in folk as well as free if those matches took place during that time frame.

 

I would be willing to bet that James Green right now beats all the guys that finished ahead of him in NCAAs in a folk tournament.

 

If style was such a huge factor in who is better we would see many more glaring discrepencies in results. Kyle Snyder is the best wrestler in the world. He woukd beat anyone in his weight class in any style.

I disagree. Again, it depends on the wrestler and his style, like I said. We have precedents where world-class foreigners came to the US and underperformed expectations. Lázaro Reinoso (Olympic gold and world silver, who beat John Smith at the Olympics) comes to mind ... versus D2 guys.

 

Generally, if you are a badass in one style, you are a badass in another style. That’s why college coaches even care about freestyle results. That said, some guys have a style that much more easily transfers between sports (e.g. Snyder, JB). Some guys, not so much. Look at Mitch McKee this year. He would’ve texted guys with that chest wrap in FS and instead is getting taken down in folkstyle with the same move that was such a huge part of his success. (I’m not saying McKee isn’t a badass in folk, just using his big move as one example).

 

I don’t think Green beats Imart in a folk tournament right now, by the way. Not so sure about Kelly winning NCAAs the year he medaled either to be honest. Those are examples of two guys who greatly benefited from a change in styles. Similarly, there are guys who didn’t achieve nearly what they did in one style at the other.

 

In general, you’re right, but it depends on the wrestler and his style.

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I disagree. Again, it depends on the wrestler and his style, like I said. We have precedents where world-class foreigners came to the US and underperformed expectations. Lázaro Reinoso (Olympic gold and world silver, who beat John Smith at the Olympics) comes to mind ... versus D2 guys.

Generally, if you are a badass in one style, you are a badass in another style. That’s why college coaches even care about freestyle results. That said, some guys have a style that much more easily transfers between sports (e.g. Snyder, JB). Some guys, not so much. Look at Mitch McKee this year. He would’ve texted guys with that chest wrap in FS and instead is getting taken down in folkstyle with the same move that was such a huge part of his success. (I’m not saying McKee isn’t a badass in folk, just using his big move as one example).

I don’t think Green beats Imart in a folk tournament right now, by the way. Not so sure about Kelly winning NCAAs the year he medaled either to be honest. Those are examples of two guys who greatly benefited from a change in styles. Similarly, there are guys who didn’t achieve nearly what they did in one style at the other.

In general, you’re right, but it depends on the wrestler and his style.

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote here. Of course it's not a hard and fast 100% predictor of results. All I'm saying is that more times than not it's a very reasonable indicator. Now of course a lot of things can and have happened since their matches at U23. Fix took a loss at U23 Worlds which could have knockedd off his momentum a bit, while Nato has been rehabbing his injuries. But until I see other results from one another if I had to make a hard prediction today right here right now, I would go with Fix in another tight close match. We'll see after his performance today at Reno, and if I have to I will adjust my predictions after that. Edited by BigTenFanboy

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I agree with pretty much everything you wrote here. Of course it's not a hard and fast 100% predictor of results. All I'm saying is that more times than not it's a very reasonable indicator. Now of course a lot of things can and have happened since their matches at U23. Fix took a loss at U23 Worlds which could have knockedd off his momentum a bit, while Nato has been rehabbing his injuries. But until I see other results from one another if I had to make a hard prediction today right here right now, I would go with Fix in another tight close match. We'll see after his performance today at Reno, and if I have to I will adjust my predictions after that.

Regarding this, I am pretty sure that (a) you are correct in spirit, and (b) the data would be less definitive than that. Here's what I mean:

 

In NCAA wrestling you predominantly see wrestlers completely motivated to win, having trained with a team and a coach the whole way through. In freestyle, especially with Div I wrestlers, there is going to be a lot of variation as far as the level and seriousness of the training, including the degree of specialization concerning focusing on freestyle. Here are a bunch of examples of what I mean; Bo Nickal and Nolf, neither has had the kind of success in freestyle one would have predicted from the folkstyle success, and I've always wondered why. Is it because they don't train as much or care as much? It's possible. But I am not thinking that Zahid is going to have anywhere near as easy a time with Bo in folk as he did in the Jr WTT. 

 

So I am saying it's not really clear all the time whether it's skill or interest and dedication. 

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to what end, to bump the #3 ranked guy out of the lineup?

Fans are inherently selfish. Hence the root word "fanatic". This is why you see so many Iowa fans wanting to see Lee, Warner and even Murin in the starting line up this year. Why wait to see them wrestle when you can right now?

 

I like the redshirts in both these situations because I think it helps both teams in the long run. But, I do see why so many want to see these guys right away.

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Yes but let's use Jamil Kelly for an example. 0x AA. In 2004, I would say he probably beats those guys in folk as well as free if those matches took place during that time frame.

 

I would be willing to bet that James Green right now beats all the guys that finished ahead of him in NCAAs in a folk tournament.

 

If style was such a huge factor in who is better we would see many more glaring discrepencies in results. Kyle Snyder is the best wrestler in the world. He woukd beat anyone in his weight class in any style.

I have a strong example for you and it applies better to Fix due to same age level. Warner TF's woodley in freestyle with ease recently. But, he wins 5-3,5-2 and loses 5-4 in folkstyle the last 3 times they wrestled.

 

Fix is a stud, but mat wrestling makes such a monumental difference the 1st year for nearly all true freshman. Especially when wrestling a super savvy senior. Now, that doesn't mean fix can't win. I just wouldn't favor him based on freestyle wins.

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I hope Coach Smith pulls his redshirt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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and why?  To bump the current #3 returning AA who has already beat the defending national champ?  Things will be different next year and I'd bet there will be a couple returning AA who don't make the lineup, but there's no reason to do that this year.

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Regarding this, I am pretty sure that (a) you are correct in spirit, and (b) the data would be less definitive than that. Here's what I mean:

 

In NCAA wrestling you predominantly see wrestlers completely motivated to win, having trained with a team and a coach the whole way through. In freestyle, especially with Div I wrestlers, there is going to be a lot of variation as far as the level and seriousness of the training, including the degree of specialization concerning focusing on freestyle. Here are a bunch of examples of what I mean; Bo Nickal and Nolf, neither has had the kind of success in freestyle one would have predicted from the folkstyle success, and I've always wondered why. Is it because they don't train as much or care as much? It's possible. But I am not thinking that Zahid is going to have anywhere near as easy a time with Bo in folk as he did in the Jr WTT.

 

So I am saying it's not really clear all the time whether it's skill or interest and dedication.

They (Nolf and Bo) rely on folkstyle moves that do not translate well into freestyle. Too much voluntary exposure from their neutral attacks.

 

They may not be interested in improving their technique because it's probably more fun being a folkstyler. Who knows?

 

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Edited by cjc007

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I have a strong example for you and it applies better to Fix due to same age level. Warner TF's woodley in freestyle with ease recently. But, he wins 5-3,5-2 and loses 5-4 in folkstyle the last 3 times they wrestled.

Fix is a stud, but mat wrestling makes such a monumental difference the 1st year for nearly all true freshman. Especially when wrestling a super savvy senior. Now, that doesn't mean fix can't win. I just wouldn't favor him based on freestyle wins.

Thanks for the head to head example. How much of those scores do you chalk up to being freestyle and not Woodley catching on and figuring out how to beat Warner? Ofcourse Fix's freestyle wins don't automatically mean he's a lock to beat Nato, however it's still a very good indicator.

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Just watched Fix score 10 points in less than a minute. Good luck shooting on him, odds are you're going to be put in danger for 4 then give up the take down.Very fun to watch, does not look fun to actually wrestle him.

 

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Fix beats Bresser 2-1 on RT and never touched a leg. Bresser was in deep 3 times but fix was able to defend. Very good win for Daton, but maybe that will help temper the "try to make him into the lineup as a true frosh" crowd. I wouldn't be shocked Id piccinni beats him in the room

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Also, he didn't show much offense in the semis or the finals. He hung on a lot and avoided takedowns, but only got one of his own in the two matches.

 

This is the real takeaway. I had no doubt he'd win, and I'm not as bothered by the margins of victory, but for a guy who better make his living from the feet to compete against the likes of Lee, Suriano, Lizak (especially), etc., he didn't show enough from the feet.

 

That said, this was his first NCAA event and he's a pretty big dude for 125 to wrestle that many matches with same-day weigh-ins. He should get a pass. If this becomes a pattern, I'd be more concerned.

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