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Housebuye

Who makes the podium at NCAAs?

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Now that the regular season is over (besides one dual), who do you think makes the podium?

Virtually everyone will have PSU and tOSU top 2, but 3-4 have plenty of contenders.

Iowa

Came on strong in the second half of the season. They have 6 possible AAs and 4 possible top 3 guys. If all 4 place top 3, they will be almost a Lock for 3rd

Oklahoma State

While they haven’t had a good season, they have 8 possible AAs. Their current ranking (8th) is a worst case scenario. They have plenty of guys who could outperform their ranking. Would anyone be shocked if Heil won? Or Brock made the finals? Or Picc places too 4? Or Lewellen snuck on the podium? Rogers top 5? Etc. lots of potential for them

Lehigh

Lehigh has 7 possible AAs but most will be in the 6-8 range it appears. They need Kutler, Preisch and of course Cruz to place highly, but they have the talent to do it.

 

N.C. State

 N.C. State looked great last season too but fell apart at NCAAs. They have an even better team this year though. They have 8 possible AAs with 4 possible top 3 guys. If guys like Jack perform up to their potential, they have a great shot at their first podium finish ever. If they make the podium and tOSU doesn't win, Coach Pop will be coach of the year.

Missouri

like always, they have an incredible team but are under the radar. They had an undefeated dual season for the 2nd time in the last few years. They have 7 possible AAs, but 5 possible high AAs. If a guy like Erneste can go from r12 type guy to top 5 (certainly possible) and everyone else performs as expected, they will make the podium. There are multiple scenarios where they make the podium

Michigan 

Preseason they were ranked to end up on the podium. They have had some poor performances, but recently have turned it around. Micic for example looks like a legit finalist contender and Coon has to be considered a true threat for the title. Panteleo could place anywhere from 1st to DNP if Nolf is out and could be top 3 with him. Abounader is Wrestling better than ever. Amine had the biggest win of his career last week. Massa is getting back to form. They have 8 possible AAs and 6 possible top 4 guys. Their upside is arguable the best on the list to beat out PSU or tOSU for 2nd if either of them stumble. Michigan scoring over 110 points is possible, but they would have to do well at Big10s and not have any of their top 6 guys stumble.

My picks:
1. PSU
2. TOSU
3. Iowa (impressive turnaround, especially with their freshman)
4. N.C. State (Hidlay wins the title if Nolf is out!) and they end up with 6 AAs

Edited by Housebuye

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There are a lot of teams with 3/4 potential, maybe even add in Virginia Tech and Arizona State to have an outside shot if things fall their way.

 

At least at the moment, I think it ends up being Michigan at 3, and Iowa at 4. However, I'd love to see a non Big Ten team sneak in there.

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There are a lot of teams with 3/4 potential, maybe even add in Virginia Tech and Arizona State to have an outside shot if things fall their way.

 

At least at the moment, I think it ends up being Michigan at 3, and Iowa at 4. However, I'd love to see a non Big Ten team sneak in there.

Yeah I thought about including ASU, VT and Cornell, but I feel like they are a tier below the teams listed

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Mizzou will have 5 top 3 seeds, you watch. According to the OP, that’s a lock for 3rd with no under performers. Erneste has 8 quality wins and no bad losses. Flynn and Marriott will contribute a few wins. For Mizzou to finish off the podium, At least 3 of Eierman, Leerh, Lavallee, Lewis, and Miklus will have to get upset before the semis. Could happen of course, but on paper they’re a strong candidate. Would anyone be shocked if Eierman, Lavallee, and Miklus were in the finals?

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Mizzou will have 5 top 3 seeds, you watch. According to the OP, that’s a lock for 3rd with no under performers. Erneste has 8 quality wins and no bad losses. Flynn and Marriott will contribute a few wins. For Mizzou to finish off the podium, At least 3 of Eierman, Leerh, Lavallee, Lewis, and Miklus will have to get upset before the semis. Could happen of course, but on paper they’re a strong candidate. Would anyone be shocked if Eierman, Lavallee, and Miklus were in the finals?

Ladies and gentlemen, batten down the hatches.  There is a hurricane coming!

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Mizzou will have 5 top 3 seeds, you watch. According to the OP, that’s a lock for 3rd with no under performers. Erneste has 8 quality wins and no bad losses. Flynn and Marriott will contribute a few wins. For Mizzou to finish off the podium, At least 3 of Eierman, Leerh, Lavallee, Lewis, and Miklus will have to get upset before the semis. Could happen of course, but on paper they’re a strong candidate. Would anyone be shocked if Eierman, Lavallee, and Miklus were in the finals?

3rd place is 13.5 points at a minimum without bonus points, so 5 top 3 placers worst case is 67.5 points. Lewis, Lavallee and especially Eierman will all score at least some bonus, plus the points other guys score (whether they place or not) means Mizzou will be at 85 or so points at least if they have 5 top 3 guys. That is almost certainly enough to make the podium. If you add Erneste placing, they may even be close to 100 points.

 

Problem is, Leeth has plenty of guys who may be able to beat him plus has the injury to worry about, Miklus could be anywhere from 2nd to DNP, Lavallee could lose to at least 3 of the guys in the field, if not more, Lewis has to beat Boj/Hall/Zahid to place 3rd or higher, Eierman is just as likely to win as place 7th or worse I think, etc. Missouri has HUGE potential but they don't have anyone who is a lock to be a high placer. It could certainly happen. 

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While it is a little counter-intuitive if I was an Iowa fan I wouldn't be all that sad if Lee got upset in the first round. If that happens he'll tech or pin his way at least through the blood round and score a whole bunch of bonus.  If he's going to end up in the 3rd place match (I think it is about 50/50 whether he ends up there or in the finals, can't see him lower than that) he'd score more points going through the backside than he would through the frontside. Those extra points could end up being the difference for Iowa getting hardware.

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While it is a little counter-intuitive if I was an Iowa fan I wouldn't be all that sad if Lee got upset in the first round. If that happens he'll tech or pin his way at least through the blood round and score a whole bunch of bonus. If he's going to end up in the 3rd place match (I think it is about 50/50 whether he ends up there or in the finals, can't see him lower than that) he'd score more points going through the backside than he would through the frontside. Those extra points could end up being the difference for Iowa getting hardware.

True but the half point bonus for wins note top side adds up too.

 

My biggest concern for him is his gas tank. He can tech/pin almost anyone, but f he gets tired in the third even against guys who don’t push him, how is he going to wrestle for 3 days straight against increasingly better competition? Skill for skill I think he is the best wrestler at 125, but that might not be enough.

 

Rooting for him. He has legitimate shot at being a 4 timer or not winning any. It is a weird situation at the top of 125 with Suriano being there for three more years and Fix joining the mix

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Yeah I thought about including ASU, VT and Cornell, but I feel like they are a tier below the teams listed

 

I'm hoping for a top 10, but for VT to sniff the podium, everything would have to be perfect.  Now if Chishko was up to form and Epperly stuck around for his senior year things might be different.  Still a lot to cheer for though.

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I'm hoping for a top 10, but for VT to sniff the podium, everything would have to be perfect. Now if Chishko was up to form and Epperly stuck around for his senior year things might be different. Still a lot to cheer for though.

Yeah. I expect them to finish top 10

 

They can AA at:

133 (long shot, but possible)

149 (long shot, but possible)

157 (if Chisko gets back to form he certainly could AA)

165 (finalist potential)

174 (long shot, but possible)

184 (should AA, but he tends to underperform at NCAAs for some reason)

197 (title contender if he manages to avoid Moore)

285 (super long shot, but hvwt matches are 2 takedown half the time and he is on the level of the 14-20 ranked guys, meaning 2 upsets gets him on the podium)

 

I expect 3 AAs, with realistically 5 being best case scenario.

 

3 gets them into the top 10 most years. 5 means they could place as high as 4th.

 

The good news is they have a lot of non senior ranked guys, but they are in the 15-20 range. If they can level up over the summer VT could make some noise next year

Edited by Housebuye

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Yeah. I expect them to finish top 10

 

They can AA at:

133 (long shot, but possible)

149 (long shot, but possible)

157 (if Chisko gets back to form he certainly could AA)

165 (finalist potential)

174 (long shot, but possible)

184 (should AA, but he tends to underperform at NCAAs for some reason)

197 (title contender if he manages to avoid Moore)

285 (super long shot, but hvwt matches are 2 takedown half the time and he is on the level of the 14-20 ranked guys, meaning 2 upsets gets him on the podium)

 

I expect 3 AAs, with realistically 5 being best case scenario.

 

3 gets them into the top 10 most years. 5 means they could place as high as 4th.

 

The good news is they have a lot of non senior ranked guys, but they are in the 15-20 range. If they can level up over the summer VT could make some noise next year

That's about right. Norstrem likely doesn't qualify though and not sure if it will be Chishko or Laprade for the post season. I believe either one would need to steal a spot at ACCs just to qualify.

 

Add Lewis next year at 57 or 65. I expect him to make some noise.

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3rd place is 13.5 points at a minimum without bonus points, so 5 top 3 placers worst case is 67.5 points. Lewis, Lavallee and especially Eierman will all score at least some bonus, plus the points other guys score (whether they place or not) means Mizzou will be at 85 or so points at least if they have 5 top 3 guys. That is almost certainly enough to make the podium. If you add Erneste placing, they may even be close to 100 points.

 

Problem is, Leeth has plenty of guys who may be able to beat him plus has the injury to worry about, Miklus could be anywhere from 2nd to DNP, Lavallee could lose to at least 3 of the guys in the field, if not more, Lewis has to beat Boj/Hall/Zahid to place 3rd or higher, Eierman is just as likely to win as place 7th or worse I think, etc. Missouri has HUGE potential but they don't have anyone who is a lock to be a high placer. It could certainly happen.

Count me as one who would be shocked if those 3 ended up finalists, with Eierman being the least shocking of the 3.

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