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TBar1977

What it takes for Penn St to close the gap at NCAA's

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All it will take for PSU to win at NCAA's is for Penn St to wrestle the way they normally wrestle, and Ohio State to just not be perfect. Any two wrestlers at Ohio State that fall just slightly from their finishing place at Big Tens and Penn State over takes them.

 

A wrestler who finished first at Big Tens received 16 Placement points and 3 (out of 3 possible) Advancement points. Same wrestler finishes 3rd at NCAA they receive 10 Placement and 3.5 (out of 4 possible) Advancement points. That loss of 6.5 pts happens 2x and the gap is closed. 

 

What are the odds that all of these things happen at NCAA's:

NaTo places 1rst

Pletcher gets 2nd

McKenna takes 1rst

Hayes takes 3rd

Micah Jo takes 2nd

Bo Jo takes 3rd

MyMar takes 2nd

Moore places 1rst

Snyder places 1rst

 

Some of those placements will certainly happen, but not all of them. Ohio State really has to wrestle a 2nd perfect tournament in a row, just this time against an even tougher field, to win NCAA's. That or Penn State has to wrestle below what they normally accomplish at NCAA's. 

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I'm a homer, but a realistic one.  I think that:

* NaTo taking 1st is realistic, but also, the difficulty increases

* Pletcher taking 2nd feels very unrealistic.  Podium?  Sure.  But there are some 133 studs coming from outside the Big 10 that will make even podium placement difficult.

* McKenna is looking great!  BUT... there's Meredith, Eierman, Yianni, Jack, and Heil, all absolute studs in their won right.  Replicating 1st will be a TALL order, and highly unlikely.

* Hayes taking 3rd was a great placement, and will also be difficult to mimic.  He's podium worthy and caliber though. 

* MiJo at 2nd is feasible, but, Hidlay gets thrown into the mix now.  I see podium, but not a 2nd place finish.

* BoJo at 3rd or 4th is absolutely feasible.  1st or 2nd I think is out of reach.

* MyMar at 2nd is more likely than not. 

* Moore at 1st is plausible, but the road becomes more difficult with Haught, Darmstadt and Machiavello joining the party.

* Snyder at 1st is plausible.   The Snyder/Coon duo will be 1/2, it's just who can win the rubber match, and my money is on Snyder, now that he has the game plan.  

 

So.. TBar... I AGREE.  

 

PSU replicating their individual finishes (or better) are just as likely, if not slightly better.

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B10s have lots of talent and its compacted.  NCAA's will be more wide open with more bonus opps with guys from other conferences.

 

NaTo gets top 4...anywhere from 1st to 4th would not be a shock. He's looking real good but the top 4 are all super tough.  PSU get's a big zero (0) here...obviously.

 

With Pletcher's no-margin-for-error style he could take 3rd...or 8th.  PSU?  Another goose egg here too.

 

McKenna's looking Super...firing on all cylinders.  But 141 is so tough.  I can see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.  PSU's Lee could be 7th or 8th here.

 

There is no way Hayes takes 3rd...NO WAY.  He'd be extremely lucky to AA.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here.

 

Micah?  Anywhere from 6th to 8th seems like about right.  PSU could be at a huge points advantage here if Nolf really is healthy.

 

Campbell? Please. 0-2.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here with Cenzo likely anywhere from 1st to 4th.

 

BoJo.  Anywhere from 1st to 4th. 3rd seems most likely.  Points could be close here.  But with the talent watered down, Hall should pile up bonus points while BoJo who is really good isn't a bonus machine.

 

MyMar...also looking good but...Nickal has the formula.  2-6 against Bo should put a stop to this Nickal Kryptonite BS.  PSWC doesn't have all their historical points stuff up right now but my guess is these guys generate similar points.

 

Moore seems to have done what he needs to adjust.  Darmstadt and Haught are also tough. 1st to 3rd seems likely.  PSU has to be hoping the thinning of the field at NCAAs gives Rasheed some bonus opps.

 

Snyder also looking good to place 1st...but 2nd is a possibility.  Again, my guess here is these guys generate similar points if Nevills can place high enough.

 

Should be razor thin margin either way.

Edited by PANewbie

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B10s have lots of talent and its compacted.  NCAA's will be more wide open with more bonus opps with guys from other conferences.

 

NaTo gets top 4...anywhere from 1st to 4th would not be a shock. He's looking real good but the top 4 are all super tough.  PSU get's a big zero (0) here...obviously.

 

With Pletcher's no-margin-for-error style he could take 3rd...or 8th.  PSU?  Another goose egg here too.

 

McKenna's looking Super...firing on all cylinders.  But 141 is so tough.  I can see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.  PSU's Lee could be 7th or 8th here.

 

There is no way Hayes takes 3rd...NO WAY.  He'd be extremely lucky to AA.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here.

 

Micah?  Anywhere from 6th to 8th seems like about right.  PSU could be at a huge points advantage here if Nolf really is healthy.

 

Campbell? Please. 0-2.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here with Cenzo likely anywhere from 1st to 4th.

 

BoJo.  Anywhere from 1st to 4th. 3rd seems most likely.  Points could be close here.  But with the talent watered down, Hall should pile up bonus points while BoJo who is really good isn't a bonus machine.

 

MyMar...also looking good but...Nickal has the formula.  2-6 against Bo should put a stop to this Nickal Kryptonite BS.  PSWC doesn't have all their historical points stuff up right now but my guess is these guys generate similar points.

 

Moore seems to have done what he needs to adjust.  Darmstadt and Haught are also tough. 1st to 3rd seems likely.  PSU has to be hoping the thinning of the field at NCAAs gives Rasheed some bonus opps.

 

Snyder also looking good to place 1st...but 2nd is a possibility.  Again, my guess here is these guys generate similar points if Nevills can place high enough.

 

Should be razor thin margin either way.

 

Since there is no way that Martin can beat Bo. Would you give me 100 to 1 for 20 dollars.

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B10s have lots of talent and its compacted.  NCAA's will be more wide open with more bonus opps with guys from other conferences.

 

NaTo gets top 4...anywhere from 1st to 4th would not be a shock. He's looking real good but the top 4 are all super tough.  PSU get's a big zero (0) here...obviously.

 

With Pletcher's no-margin-for-error style he could take 3rd...or 8th.  PSU?  Another goose egg here too.

 

McKenna's looking Super...firing on all cylinders.  But 141 is so tough.  I can see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.  PSU's Lee could be 7th or 8th here.

 

There is no way Hayes takes 3rd...NO WAY.  He'd be extremely lucky to AA.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here.

 

Micah?  Anywhere from 6th to 8th seems like about right.  PSU could be at a huge points advantage here if Nolf really is healthy.

 

Campbell? Please. 0-2.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here with Cenzo likely anywhere from 1st to 4th.

 

BoJo.  Anywhere from 1st to 4th. 3rd seems most likely.  Points could be close here.  But with the talent watered down, Hall should pile up bonus points while BoJo who is really good isn't a bonus machine.

 

MyMar...also looking good but...Nickal has the formula.  2-6 against Bo should put a stop to this Nickal Kryptonite BS.  PSWC doesn't have all their historical points stuff up right now but my guess is these guys generate similar points.

 

Moore seems to have done what he needs to adjust.  Darmstadt and Haught are also tough. 1st to 3rd seems likely.  PSU has to be hoping the thinning of the field at NCAAs gives Rasheed some bonus opps.

 

Snyder also looking good to place 1st...but 2nd is a possibility.  Again, my guess here is these guys generate similar points if Nevills can place high enough.

 

Should be razor thin margin either way.

Nice analysis.

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B10s have lots of talent and its compacted.  NCAA's will be more wide open with more bonus opps with guys from other conferences.

 

NaTo gets top 4...anywhere from 1st to 4th would not be a shock. He's looking real good but the top 4 are all super tough.  PSU get's a big zero (0) here...obviously.

 

With Pletcher's no-margin-for-error style he could take 3rd...or 8th.  PSU?  Another goose egg here too.

 

McKenna's looking Super...firing on all cylinders.  But 141 is so tough.  I can see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.  PSU's Lee could be 7th or 8th here.

 

There is no way Hayes takes 3rd...NO WAY.  He'd be extremely lucky to AA.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here.

 

Micah?  Anywhere from 6th to 8th seems like about right.  PSU could be at a huge points advantage here if Nolf really is healthy.

 

Campbell? Please. 0-2.  PSU should be at a huge points advantage here with Cenzo likely anywhere from 1st to 4th.

 

BoJo.  Anywhere from 1st to 4th. 3rd seems most likely.  Points could be close here.  But with the talent watered down, Hall should pile up bonus points while BoJo who is really good isn't a bonus machine.

 

MyMar...also looking good but...Nickal has the formula.  2-6 against Bo should put a stop to this Nickal Kryptonite BS.  PSWC doesn't have all their historical points stuff up right now but my guess is these guys generate similar points.

 

Moore seems to have done what he needs to adjust.  Darmstadt and Haught are also tough. 1st to 3rd seems likely.  PSU has to be hoping the thinning of the field at NCAAs gives Rasheed some bonus opps.

 

Snyder also looking good to place 1st...but 2nd is a possibility.  Again, my guess here is these guys generate similar points if Nevills can place high enough.

 

Should be razor thin margin either way.

Hayes extremely lucky to AA? I'm willing to put some money on that...

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Hayes extremely lucky to AA? I'm willing to put some money on that...

 

OK.  Maybe a little over stated. He's barely 6th now.  He's loses to any of the top 5 now he's 50-50 with 7-11. How much money?  I wouldn't put any more than $10 either way.

Edited by PANewbie

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Also worth considering that PSU has to do something similar

 

133: Will Keener score any points? 2-4 would be ideal for PSU

141: Placed 3rd. Very unlikely to happen at NCAAs. Lee is solid, but this weight is stacked. He will battle to make the podium. I expect 7th or so. 

149: Same but with more bonus

157: higher assuming injury is resolved - may take a a small hit on bonus points as compared to last year due to the injury

165: He could place higher, but there is maybe a total of 6 additional points he could score (1st + bonus)

174: Has to deal with an always dangerous Daniel Lewis and Zahid, a guy who could certainly beat him. He is more likely to score less than more at NCAAs as compared to Big10s

184: Likely will score 2-4 more points due to bonus. He does have a few guys that can challenge him, but he is a heavy favorite

197: I like Rasheed. I said he would make the podium during his career back when he was at 165 and fighting for a starting spot. 2nd though? That will be tough for him

285: Nevills could place 3rd, but that is his ceiling. There are plenty of guys that can challenge him. I see him placing anywhere from 3rd-6th 

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I sure hope you're right, TBar!  Talk about a Cinderella story if it happens!  And how!

 

 

I hope they write it up that way, Frank Rizzo, but I think it is almost a 50-50 proposition. If you look at the rankings at Intermat tomorrow, even after Big10's, then use those rankings for NCAA placement, then Ohio State will lose a lot of points. Ohio State might need to/probably need to replicate their placement finish at Big Tens for 7 out of their 9 placers. I think that is an extremely tall order. 

 

PANewbie suggested My Mar and Nickal score about the same number of points, but if Nickal places 1rst he scores 4 more automatically and I think he easily out bonuses Martin as well. PSU as a whole will substantially out bonus Ohio State. I think Penn State is at least as likely to accomplish what it needs to get done to win as tOSU, and given history at NCAA's since 2010 I would not bet against just that. 

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OK.  Maybe a little over stated. He's barely 6th now.  He's loses to any of the top 5 now he's 50-50 with 7-11. How much money?  I wouldn't put any more than $10 either way.

 

What does "barely 6th" mean?  There are two guys in the weight class that he definitely loses to.  Let's go through the rest:

 

Leeth -- has had a great season and should be favored over Hayes, but definitely not a certainty.  

Oliver -- placed 4th in the MAC.  Otherwise, similar results against common opponents. 

Deakin -- similar results against common opponents.  Also Deakin defaulted out of Big Tens... not sure what the story is there.  

 

The next group of guys are all potentially capable of beating Hayes, but he should be favored over all of them.  149 is not 165.  I wouldn't predict Hayes to finish 3/4, but it's not highly unlikely.  To say Hayes would be "extremely lucky" to AA is just wrong.  Unless you mean it in the general sense like, we're all just "lucky" to be alive.  

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Honestly,

It is more simple than all that.

 

The answer to closing the gap is the same as it was last year, a deeper field than the B10.

 

No matter how many sharks enter the pool, PSU is still going to punch Zain, Hall, and Nickal through to the finals no matter what.

Joseph and Nolf are also contenders, Nolf hurt or not, and add Rasheed and Nevells and it is closer if not tipping in PSU's favor.

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What does "barely 6th" mean?  There are two guys in the weight class that he definitely loses to.  Let's go through the rest:

 

Leeth -- has had a great season and should be favored over Hayes, but definitely not a certainty.  

Oliver -- placed 4th in the MAC.  Otherwise, similar results against common opponents. 

Deakin -- similar results against common opponents.  Also Deakin defaulted out of Big Tens... not sure what the story is there.  

 

The next group of guys are all potentially capable of beating Hayes, but he should be favored over all of them.  149 is not 165.  I wouldn't predict Hayes to finish 3/4, but it's not highly unlikely.  To say Hayes would be "extremely lucky" to AA is just wrong.  Unless you mean it in the general sense like, we're all just "lucky" to be alive.  

 

You've moved me off "lucky"!  I'm going 6th to 8th.

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Penn state normally wrestles basically perfect anyway when it comes to ncaas, so its easy to say if they wrestle like they normally do they will win. This ones gonna be about which team is closer to perfect hopefully. If Ohio state has some bumps in the road, it makes the ncaas a lot less interesting because psu would run away with it.

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Small tournament favors the team with a more balanced lineup (Ohio State)

 

Big tournament favors the team with more all-stars (Penn State)

 

I think it all comes down to whether Nolf is 100%. He wins and Penn State probably gets it. He's still hurt and doesn't place, I could see Ohio State winning it.

Edited by TurdFerguson

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this tournament could go....who knows for sure? could come down to Snyder needing to beat Coon in last match of the night for tOSU to win team title, or maybe PSU wins 5 again and one or two tOSU guys slip up and it's a blow out. Or one or two PSU guys slip and tOSU has 8 or 9 top 4 with 2-3 champs and they win big. 

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Penn State has got to rely on two things to pull off another title. Bonus points, and above average performances from Lee and Nevills. Nevills will likely be the 3 seed and would most likely meet up with Coon in the semis, but he has to maintain and get to the semis. Lee on the other hand is a true wildcard for the lions. He is in the sink or swim deep end of 141. He needs to wrestle above his seed, whatever it may be, make the podium, and pick up bonus points along the way. It is not out of the realm that he could end up 1-2 or 2-2 in Cleveland, which would leave PSU with 7, possibly 6 wrestlers in the field depending on Nolf. 

 

Nato avenged his only loss of the season. Pletcher, Hayes, and MJordan I would expect to be low AA 6-8. BoJo, MyMar, and Nato will be higher AA 2-4. Snyder is almost a certain will repeat. Moore, I expect to be in the finals, but a slip could hurt Ohio's chances.

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Penn State has got to rely on two things to pull off another title. Bonus points, and above average performances from Lee and Nevills. Nevills will likely be the 3 seed and would most likely meet up with Coon in the semis, but he has to maintain and get to the semis. Lee on the other hand is a true wildcard for the lions. He is in the sink or swim deep end of 141. He needs to wrestle above his seed, whatever it may be, make the podium, and pick up bonus points along the way. It is not out of the realm that he could end up 1-2 or 2-2 in Cleveland, which would leave PSU with 7, possibly 6 wrestlers in the field depending on Nolf. 

 

Nato avenged his only loss of the season. Pletcher, Hayes, and MJordan I would expect to be low AA 6-8. BoJo, MyMar, and Nato will be higher AA 2-4. Snyder is almost a certain will repeat. Moore, I expect to be in the finals, but a slip could hurt Ohio's chances.

 

 

 

Good chance Nevills and Lee get the job done. Nevills or Kasper will have the 3 seed. Kasper has 2 losses, but one of them is to Nevills. Nevills have 5 losses, but 3 are to Coon or Snyder. Let's assume Nevills gets 4th. It doesn't really matter since he can't beat Snyder or Coon. But he'd wrestle the 5 seed in the qrtrs. Normally you'd expect the 2 loss Dhesi to be the 5 seed, but his 2 losses he got hammered by guys Nevills owns and who will take the 5th spot from him. I think the 5th spot goes to either Hemida who beat Dhesi, or to Sam Stoll. Nevills has consecutive wins over both. 

 

Lee probably gets seeded somewhere around 8 or 9. So if he should win in round 1 and in round 2 he gets a guy like Mason Smith or Josh Alber. This is a pivotal match to watch. If he wins then great. He'll drop the next one to a guy like Meredith and go to the back side where he can maybe win 1 or 2 more. Keep in mind to that he scored as much bonus at Big10's as McKenna did, and he wins a lot of matches by major so this can help as well. 

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I hope they write it up that way, Frank Rizzo, but I think it is almost a 50-50 proposition. If you look at the rankings at Intermat tomorrow, even after Big10's, then use those rankings for NCAA placement, then Ohio State will lose a lot of points. Ohio State might need to/probably need to replicate their placement finish at Big Tens for 7 out of their 9 placers. I think that is an extremely tall order. 

 

PANewbie suggested My Mar and Nickal score about the same number of points, but if Nickal places 1rst he scores 4 more automatically and I think he easily out bonuses Martin as well. PSU as a whole will substantially out bonus Ohio State. I think Penn State is at least as likely to accomplish what it needs to get done to win as tOSU, and given history at NCAA's since 2010 I would not bet against just that. 

 

That's what I'm saying.  Penn State is totally a Cinderella team this year.  And they're doing it with guys that weren't that highly regarded in high school. 

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Seeds are going to be very interesting. 

Cruz is the top seed at 125. I imagine that NaTo and Suriano are 2-3. Lee at 4? I think Lee has the best shot at upsetting NaTo, so it will be interesting to see if they end up in the same half.

 

I don't think it matters as  much where Pletcher gets seeded - I agree with someone else that he'd be the one to pick against anyone besides the top three, but he shows some vulnerability against most of the top 8.

 

I can't wait to see where Heil ends up. I'd be surprised if anyone could pick this bracket successfully. 

 

Ke-Shawn could be a 4-5 seed. Jordan Oliver's 4th place finish at the MAC will probably keep Ke-Shawn in the top half, as opposed to pushing him down to a 6 seed.

 

157 gets really interesting. TBar's sarcasm about seeding Nolf low enough to meet Jordan in the quarters is pretty funny. I don't think Jordan beats the Nolf that majored Jake Short in the quarters, and Nolf probably isn't going to be in any worse shape in two weeks. This could be the biggest point swing compared to B1G.

 

165 won't be much different than the B1G, except that Campbell can't do any worse than he did at B1G. It's not like he's losing to slouches, but nobody's betting on him.

 

174 By all measures, BoJo has lost a step. Amine has also gained a step - kept it close with Hall in the finals. Predicting a better performance out of Jordan would be pure homerism.

 

184 not particularly compelling outside of the presumed finals. It's hard to believe in Myles after the last two controlled wins by Nickal. The last time Myles beat him he took some big risks. He'll probably have to do that again, and the probability of that working out for him isn't that good. 

 

197 is very compelling. If either Moore or Rasheed make it through their half, but not both, it's another big point swing. 

 

HWT will be interesting to see where Nevills ends up. Also, Snyder vs Coon is still a tossup. Props to Snyder for finishing that shot!...but there's not guarantee that he can do it again. I'll be curious to see how Coon adjusts. If it goes down to ride-outs, advantage to Coon.  And as hammers go, Snyder's not scoring much bonus without any turns. I'd say Nevills is about as likely to repeat his performance as Snyder is.  

Edited by denger

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All it will take for PSU to win at NCAA's is for Penn St to wrestle the way they normally wrestle, and Ohio State to just not be perfect. Any two wrestlers at Ohio State that fall just slightly from their finishing place at Big Tens and Penn State over takes them.

 

A wrestler who finished first at Big Tens received 16 Placement points and 3 (out of 3 possible) Advancement points. Same wrestler finishes 3rd at NCAA they receive 10 Placement and 3.5 (out of 4 possible) Advancement points. That loss of 6.5 pts happens 2x and the gap is closed. 

 

What are the odds that all of these things happen at NCAA's:

NaTo places 1rst

Pletcher gets 2nd

McKenna takes 1rst

Hayes takes 3rd

Micah Jo takes 2nd

Bo Jo takes 3rd

MyMar takes 2nd

Moore places 1rst

Snyder places 1rst

 

Some of those placements will certainly happen, but not all of them. Ohio State really has to wrestle a 2nd perfect tournament in a row, just this time against an even tougher field, to win NCAA's. That or Penn State has to wrestle below what they normally accomplish at NCAA's. 

 

Keep sipping the Kool-Aid!

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TOSU

 

125 Nato taking 2-4

133 Pletcher taking 3-5

141 McKenna 4-5

149 Haynes 4-6

157 Micah 4-6

165 Campbell DNP

174 Jordan 4-5

184 Martin 2-3

197 Moore 1-4

285 Snyder 1-2

 

PSU

 

133 Keener DNP

141 Lee 6-8

149 Retherford 1

157 Nolf 1-4

165 Joseph 1-3

174 Hall 1-2

184 Nickal 1

197 Rasheed 1-6

285 Nevils 3-5

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