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MSU158

Did tOSU underperform, PSU overperform, or both do as expected?

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I have to say that I think both teams had great tournaments.  PSU is just so top heavy and tOSU just got unlucky that Hayes hit a pissed off Sorenson in the R12.

 

125:NaTo scored 20.5 points.  No shame in taking 3rd to a phenom, deserving of the Most Outstanding Wrestler award.  

       PSU had no one here.

 

133:Pletcher taking 4th was solid.  His style lends to upsets and he didn't take any.  You may want to call Wilson an upset, but except for a little brain fart against Gross, he wrestled the best out of any 133lber this past weekend.  Keener got a win, which is about all you should have expected.

 

141:McKenna looked super motivated.  He wrestled a great tournament, capping it off by controlling a very good Eierman.  Lee's backside run was amazing.  5 of the 6 guys he beat on the backside were seeded and the only one that wasn't became an AA.

 

149:Hayes simply fell victim to a bad draw.  He lost a heartbreaker in OT to Heilman and then drew Sorenson.  Retherford won handily, but wasn't quite as dominant as expected(crazy to think 5 bonus is a down year!).

 

157:Jordan actually scored 4 bonus pts and took 6th as the 7 seed.  The Berger loss was a bit surprising, but he still exceeded his seed.  Nolf was a true warrior.  Just how good do you have to be to dominate your way through NCAA's when you are obviously still injured and favoring that injury?

 

165:Campbell did exactly as a 13 seed should.  He lost in the R16 match to the 12 seed by 1 pt.  Joseph had his quarterfinal scare, similar to last season.  Besides that he was impossible to score on and beat IMAR for the 2nd year in a row, when it counted!

 

174:Jordan taking 5th may be a letdown from pre-season expectations.  But, he deserved to be the 6 seed and Amine proved that he had ever so slightly passed him by.  Hall is a beast, but Valencia is so gifted in Neutral that I would have a hard time picking Hall going forward.

 

184:Martin is incredible.  Nickal is even beyond that.  

 

197:Moore fell victim to a great story TWICE!  Still, 4th is solid and he didn't pack it in after the surprise loss.  Rasheed got to the podium from the 5 seed, only underachieving by 2. Plus, it is hard to blame him since he also fell victim to a bad draw and hit Moore on the backside due to his being upset in the quarters.

 

285:Snyder took out the Big Man, again!  Enough said.  Nevills was simply unlucky that Dhesi was the 6 seed.  He was clearly the best of the rest.  Losing to Stoll was a let down, but it is hard to keep beating the same guy at that level.

 

You may be able to point to 1 or 2 that could/should have done a bit better, but overall I don't think you could rightly have asked for more!

Edited by MSU158

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The bucks had a good run, but Penn State is Penn state. Much like Adam Coon experienced versus Snyder - against the most elite opponents you cant even afford one slip up, because you'll pay for it - tOSU had a few slips where as PSU had virtually none. 

 

I had a blast. Every Penn State fan I met was really respectful and gave props to other fans, and teams. I hope they all received the same kind of respect. 

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Both performed great.  PSU underperformed slighty w/ bonus, but exceeded expectations with placement.  tOSU met expectations with placement and slightly overperformed with bonus. 

 

1,1,1,1, 2, 5, 7, 7

 

vs.

 

1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6

 

PSU should have won by more, but NATO basically scored like a national champion

Edited by LemonPie

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Ohio State did fine. I get that a lot of fans had higher expectations especially after the Buckeyes got off to that incredible start on the first day, but since last year people have been saying that Penn State would run away with the team championship, without Nick Suriano. Not sure anyone expected it to be this close.

 

It's also easy to dwell on MyMart's loss, but if a match or two swung in Ohio State's favor earlier  - like what if McKenna chose down or if Hayes beat Heilman or if Pletcher racked up some bonus points early? - the outcome could have been way different. The season was far from disappointing for Ohio State.

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I'm not going to criticize either team, but:

 

Of PSU's 9 competitors, 3 outperformed their seed and 2 placed below their seed. The overall +/- was +2 (overperforming).  This is counting Keener (unseeded, 1-2) as a wash, along with Hall, Zain and Bo.

 

Of tOSU's 10 competitors, 3 outperformed their seed (each by 1 place), and 4 placed below their seed.  The overall+/1 was -7 (treating Hayes as 9th, or -4). This is counting Campbell (13 seed, R16) as a wash, along with Snyder and Martin.

 

So if we define expectations as seed vs. placement -- which isn't perfect, but at least is objective -- PSU performed a bit better than tOSU. 

 

What probably evens it out for most people (myself included) is subjective expectations of bonus points.  I did not check to see who had more bonus points overall.  But either way, I think most would say PSU had fewer than expected, and tOSU had more than expected. 

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That semifinal meltdown they had up to 174 certainly hurt their title chances.

Wouldn't you have to be the favorite to have a meltdown? NATO was the only guy seeded to make the finals that didn't and he ran into an absolute buzzsaw. Pletcher actually wrestled Micic closer than the two prior times they met. McKenna lost 1-0 to the 1 seed. Jordan couldn't beat Nolf if he tagged his older brother in for a period.

 

Moore was the only guy that really lost to a surprise and that surprise proved himself by beating him again for 3rd.

 

Meltdown is completely inaccurate.....

Edited by MSU158

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Excellent summary. Hopefully Rutgers will be in this type of conversation. I thought all the fans were great. I was in the midst of PSU fans Saturday at dinner and they could not have been more gracious. (I’m still embarrassed about how we behaved in the PSU match.)

 

It was a great tournament but wrestling needs new blood at the top. Hopefully in my lifetime, I’ll see my Scarlet Knights there!

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I'm not going to criticize either team, but:

 

Of PSU's 9 competitors, 3 outperformed their seed and 2 placed below their seed. The overall +/- was +2 (overperforming).  This is counting Keener (unseeded, 1-2) as a wash, along with Hall, Zain and Bo.

 

Of tOSU's 10 competitors, 3 outperformed their seed (each by 1 place), and 4 placed below their seed.  The overall+/1 was -7 (treating Hayes as 9th, or -4). This is counting Campbell (13 seed, R16) as a wash, along with Snyder and Martin.

 

So if we define expectations as seed vs. placement -- which isn't perfect, but at least is objective -- PSU performed a bit better than tOSU. 

 

What probably evens it out for most people (myself included) is subjective expectations of bonus points.  I did not check to see who had more bonus points overall.  But either way, I think most would say PSU had fewer than expected, and tOSU had more than expected. 

 

Ohio State had 24 (NaTo had 7 alone, they got 4 thru inj def)

Penn State 23.5 (PSU were pretty evenly spread out, 0 via inj def)

 

Penn State typically kills everyone this way, so I would say this is a combination of Ohio State over performing and PSU under performing. I honestly thought they'd get 30 bonus. 

Edited by TBar1977

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I'm not going to criticize either team, but:

 

Of PSU's 9 competitors, 3 outperformed their seed and 2 placed below their seed. The overall +/- was +2 (overperforming).  This is counting Keener (unseeded, 1-2) as a wash, along with Hall, Zain and Bo.

 

 

PSU overperforming on seeds, technically correct, but skewed by Nolf being the 3. 

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Evened out by Nevils who was seeded 3rd but finished 7th.

you miss my point. Nolf out performed his seed but everyone, ok almost everyone, knew he was underseeded as the 3. Nevills was 'rightly seeded' at 3, but fell short.

 

PSU getting credit for outperforming seeds, in my mind, is skewed in their favor by Nolf out performing his seed. like I said technically correct, but realistically he was the 1. 

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you miss my point. Nolf out performed his seed but everyone, ok almost everyone, knew he was underseeded as the 3. Nevills was 'rightly seeded' at 3, but fell short.

 

PSU getting credit for outperforming seeds, in my mind, is skewed in their favor by Nolf out performing his seed. like I said technically correct, but realistically he was the 1. 

 

See, comments like this are where bias starts to creep in.  You also could say "realistically" Bo Jordan should've been a 3 seed as he'd never finished worse than 3rd his past 3 years so his 6 seed was skewed (as multiple tOSU people said pre-tournament).  Or "realistically" Rasheed would've placed better than 7th if he didn't draw #1 Moore in consi quarters.  And tOSU says "realistically" Hayes would've placed top 5 if he didn't draw Sorenson on the backside.  In Nolf's case, yeah I get he's defending champ, but his health was suspect; if he took 7th, we'd say "realistically" he was over-seeded as he'd never fully recovered from his injury.  Coulda woulda shoulda.  If you are going to be objective, take the seeds as you find them.   

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I believe things played out the way most reasonable people expected between OSU/PSU. At least as far as relative standings between PSU/OSU. What surprised people was PSU didn't get near as many bonus points as usual and still won. Most were saying bonus points would win it for PSU.

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Ohio State had 24 (NaTo had 7 alone, they got 4 thru inj def)

Penn State 23.5 (PSU were pretty evenly spread out, 0 via inj def)

 

Penn State typically kills everyone this way, so I would say this is a combination of Ohio State over performing and PSU under performing. I honestly thought they'd get 30 bonus. 

 

Thanks for checking.  And I agree.  That IMO is what balances out PSU's slightly better performance placement-wise compared to tOSU.

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Wouldn't you have to be the favorite to have a meltdown? NATO was the only guy seeded to make the finals that didn't and he ran into an absolute buzzsaw. Pletcher actually wrestled Micic closer than the two prior times they met. McKenna lost 1-0 to the 1 seed. Jordan couldn't beat Nolf if he tagged his older brother in for a period.

 

Moore was the only guy that really lost to a surprise and that surprise proved himself by beating him again for 3rd.

 

Meltdown is completely inaccurate.....

 

You are correct and I was wrong. I clearly misstated the reality of what took place. Thank you for calling me out on it. Mea culpa.

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When you look at all the expected bonus points Penn State did not do as well as expected.

Yes, they took the title. But four or five more bonus victories by the Big5 would have given them the Title without the need for last match heroics.

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As an Ohio State booster I just want to thank everyone who came out to support us in Cleveland for the duration of the event from March 15th to March 17th of 2018.  "My guys" "fought" "valiantly" but upon the culmination* of the ultimate contest, we fell a hair short.  If one whistle gets blown one second earlier, we have it.  If Ronny Perry were able to upset Zain Retherford (as many people agree he probably should have), we have it.  If Kollin Moore hadn't cut kale from his diet, we probably have it.  It's time to turn a page. 

 

As a mixed martial artist, I'm proud of the past 4 years that the greatest warrior in American history ("Kyle" Snyder) put together (in what was a selfless and arduous tenure).  I'm excited to see what his future in the mixed martial arts holds, as I think he has the potential, the stamina, the know-how, and the grit to become a top 12 competitor in the UFC's heavyweight division.  I'm looking forward to joining the rest of you on that journey with Mr. "Snyder." 

 

When you think about it, the Nittany** Lions were surprisingly disappointing this weekend, but they showed at the end that luck does often fall upon those that truly have "fun."  To every graduating senior, I salute you.  To referee #3, I wish fortune and fame upon you as you move on to your next pit stop in Division 2 NCAA Volleyball.  God Bless.

 

*I haven't used this word before but it feels right

**The word Nittany is derived from the Algonquian word Nit-A-Nee meaning "single mountain"

Edited by steamboat_charlie

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When you look at all the expected bonus points Penn State did not do as well as expected.

Yes, they took the title. But four or five more bonus victories by the Big5 would have given them the Title without the need for last match heroics.

 

Prior to the tournament I would hear people say that everything had to go right for tOSU to pull it off and they had a very narrow margin of error, where as PSU could afford to make some big mistakes and still win it. If felt the exact opposite.

 

TOSU was right there with PSU until their final match and a lot went wrong for them. 

 

TOSU slip ups IMO were..

Nato could have won in the semis (on paper atleast) and likely wins the whole thing...

McKenna could have won in the semis... 

Hayes could have won in the quarters and atleast finishes 6th probably higher...

Micah could have won in the consi semis and likely finishes 3rd...

Mymar could have pinned/beat Nickal...

Moore's second round loss by fall...

 

PSU slipups IMO were... 

 

Shakur in the quarters losing in the last few moments...

Nevils in the quarters and consi quarters...

Nick Lee in the first round...

 

The seeds absolutely favored tOSU and on paper they were slated to win this thing.

PSU did not deliver on the bonus points like they were expected to, but they didnt suffer any huge slipups either and still barely came away with the title. If they did, tOSU wins.

 

This year's battle between tOSU vs PSU series reminded of the 1998 NBA Finals. The Utah Jazz were custom built to knock off and defeat the Chicago Bulls, but in the end the Bulls still prevailed. 

Edited by BigTenFanboy

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