Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
spladle08

WTT Betting Odds. Thoughts? Deron Winn +900?

Recommended Posts

Per Intermat BetDSI has the following lines posted for WTT (and BTS), I hate using them but may throw some $$$ on there to make it all the more interesting, dont sleep on Gantt :)
55 kilograms:
Tony Ramos -200
Daton Fix +160
Zach Sanders +700
Field +1200

61 kilograms:
Nahshon Garrett -170
Nico Megaldudis +275
Field +450
Seth Gross +500

65 kilograms:
Logan Stieber -210
Jaydin Eierman +175
Evan Henderson +650
Field +1200

70 kilograms:
Jason Chamberlain -190
Frank Molinaro +150
Hayden Hidlay +600
Field +900

74 kilograms:
Isaiah Martinez -235
Nazar Kulchytskyy +190
Tommy Gantt + 600
Field +1400

79 kilograms:
Alex Dieringer -400
Zahid Valencia +300
Field +750

86 kilograms:
Richard Perry -280
Joe Rau +240
Nick Reenan +750
Field +1000

92 kilograms:
Nick Heflin -160
Hayden Zillmer +125
Deron Winn +900
Field +1000

97 kilograms:
Austin Schafer -170
Kyven Gadson +140
Ty Walz +500
Field +1000

125 kilograms:
Adam Coon -200
Jake Varner +275
Dom Bradley +450
Gable Steveson +500
Field +2000

*Edit to Add BTS


Helen Maroulis -2.5 -125
Jordan Oliver +2.5 -115
Tamyra Stock -2.5 -115
James Green -2 -130
Jordan Burroughs -2 -125
Kyle Dake -3.5 -125
J'den Cox -2 -125 
Kyle Snyder -4.5 -140
Nick Gwiazdowski -6 -125

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I might be interested in Fix, Molinaro, Eierman, Zillmer, and Varner. 

 

mspart

Love em, I also think Winn, Walz, NICO!!!!, Gantt are very viable dogs. 

 

LOL

I think everyone familiar with this level of wrestling sighed when they saw that. Realistic odds for Perry (though he is the second most favored wrestler across all weights) should be -500. He's just that much better than the rest of the field just cant beat DT.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Field has great value at 61.  +450 would probably be fair for Graff alone, but you get Wright (who made the finals last year), Morrison, and Little thrown in at a wide open weight.  I could see the argument for Mega at +275, but my reservation would be that I think he has by far the best endurance of any of these guys, but you only need to win 4 (or 3 in the case of Garrett) matches over 2 days, so one of his biggest strengths is negated.  Also, I think Little might be able to make things interesting with Mega in round 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How does the betting work if a guy just doesn't show or doesn't wrestle -- e.g., Heflin who has reportedly been injured?  If you place a bet on him, do you just lose your money?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How does the betting work if a guy just doesn't show or doesn't wrestle -- e.g., Heflin who has reportedly been injured?  If you place a bet on him, do you just lose your money?

I'm sure they will have their own rules (which Im too lazy to look up myself, and their live chat will surely answer your question) but for most events that are "Rounds" long (I mess around with tennis a lot), if a competitor shows and plays at all (even just to test if they are can compete on said injury), after then the bet is considered active and a loss, but if the competitor never competes, its usually just voided and the money is credited back to you 

 

Now I feel obligated to look up how wrestling will work please hold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something, or did they not factor in the US Open very well at 61kg or 65kg?  Why are Garrett and Nico favored over Colon (field) who beat both of them fairly convincingly, and why is Logan such a favorite after not even making the finals, nor even losing to the eventual champ? Where is McKenna?

 

Edit: Nevermind, instantaneously realized these don't include finalX guys.  Skipped a step

Edited by GoNotQuietly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Confirmed with Chat, if they do not compete the wager will be voided, Fun side note they have Beat the Streets as well (Just click Fighting then odds to win)
BTS is listed below: 
Helen Maroulis -2.5 -125
Jordan Oliver +2.5 -115
Tamyra Stock -2.5 -115
James Green -2 -130
Jordan Burroughs -2 -125
Kyle Dake -3.5 -125
J'den Cox -2 -125 
Kyle Snyder -4.5 -140
Nick Gwiazdowski -6 -125

Just listed the Americans obviously you can guess the opponents are roughly the opposite.... a few interesting ones in there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Walz, Gantt and Garrett, but impressed that I can't find any really good values. this still rules though. with the recent Supreme Court ruling I hope we see more of these. there is no easier way to leverage your enjoyment of a sporting event. this is a no brainer for bringing in casual fans. tell your friend to 20 bucks over a couple few matches at BtS (or any event you can wager on) and then watch it with them. that is how you do it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forget -170, I think I'd need at least +170 before I would consider betting on Garrett. Remember he looked pretty good at the Open last year, then went 0-2 at WTT (teched by Waters and lost to Cruz). The probability of laying an egg is just too high.

Edited by rpm002

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Field has great value at 61.  +450 would probably be fair for Graff alone, but you get Wright (who made the finals last year), Morrison, and Little thrown in at a wide open weight.  I could see the argument for Mega at +275, but my reservation would be that I think he has by far the best endurance of any of these guys, but you only need to win 4 (or 3 in the case of Garrett) matches over 2 days, so one of his biggest strengths is negated.  Also, I think Little might be able to make things interesting with Mega in round 1.

This answers my question. Getting Graff, Wright, and Morrison is pretty good at that number. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Confirmed with Chat, if they do not compete the wager will be voided, Fun side note they have Beat the Streets as well (Just click Fighting then odds to win)

BTS is listed below: 

Helen Maroulis -2.5 -125

Jordan Oliver +2.5 -115

Tamyra Stock -2.5 -115

James Green -2 -130

Jordan Burroughs -2 -125

Kyle Dake -3.5 -125

J'den Cox -2 -125 

Kyle Snyder -4.5 -140

Nick Gwiazdowski -6 -125

 

Just listed the Americans obviously you can guess the opponents are roughly the opposite.... a few interesting ones in there. 

 

Green and Helen easy $$$. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

55 kilograms:
Daton Fix +160  At these odds, you need to win more than 38% of the time for there to be value.  I think Fix is about 80% to get to the final and about 50-50 to beat Ramos, so there's a tiny bit of value here.  


61 kilograms:
Field +450 At these odds, you need to win more than 18% of the time for there to be value.  I think I'd make this wide open weight something like 35% Garrett, 25% Mega, 15% Graff, 10% Wright, 10% Gross, and 5% Morrison/Little.  So this wins 30% of the time, so there's a lot of value here.


65 kilograms:
Logan Stieber -210 At these odds, you need to win 68%.  I'd put Steiber around 75% as he will be ready for Eierman and just teched most of the rest of the field at the Open, so a bit of value here. 


70 kilograms:
Frank Molinaro +150 Need to win more than 40% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Frank gets to the best of 3 final 70% of the time and wins the final 60%, which comes out to 42%.  So not as great as I thought at first, but still has value.

74 kilograms:
Isaiah Martinez -235  Need to win 70% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say the best of 3 helps him here.  I could see Nazar beating him once, but not 2 our of 3.  I'd say 90% IMar gets to the final and 80% he wins the final.  So 72%, which means there's a bit of value here.

79 kilograms:
Alex Dieringer -400  Need to win 80% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Alex is just a bit over that, but it is hard to lay this price with an X-factor like Zahid sitting out there.

86 kilograms:
Richard Perry -280 Need to win 74% of the time.  Perry is around 80% here in my book, so this seems like a pretty solid play.

92 kilograms:
Hayden Zillmer +125 Need to win 44% of the time for this to have value.  This is an interesting one.  I happened to see Heflin's injury in Ukraine live and it looked brutal, but he is a really tough guy, so I suspect he'll give it a go.  If Heflin can't go or gets reinjured, I'd say Zilmer would be a huge favorite.  If Heflin can go, but is at all limited, I think Zilmer would probably be a slight favorite (his only 2 losses in the past year were 5-4 to Salas and 2-0 to Cox).  If Heflin is full go, he'd be the favorite, but Zilmer would still have a shot.  It depends how likely you think each of those cases are, but I think it adds up to Zilmer being around 50-50 here.

97 kilograms:
Kyven Gadson +140 - Need to win more than 42% of the time for this to have value.  Pretty similar situation to Molinaro above.  I don't love this play, but it is the best one on the board at this weight.

125 kilograms:
Dom Bradley +450 - Need to win more than 18% of the time.  I think Dom gets to the final 50% of the time and beats Coon 2 out of 3 40% of the time, so that's 20%, so this is playable.
 

 

So in conclusion, I'd say 61kg field is the best play and Steiber and Perry are also very strong plays at these odds.  

 

Update:  Looks like the website dropped the 61 field odds from +450 to +400 and Steiber from -210 to -230, but there's still lots of value, even at the new numbers.  They also moved IMAR to -250, which sucks out what little value was there IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

55 kilograms:Daton Fix +160  At these odds, you need to win more than 38% of the time for there to be value.  I think Fix is about 80% to get to the final and about 50-50 to beat Ramos, so there's a tiny bit of value here.  [/size]61 kilograms:Field +450 At these odds, you need to win more than 18% of the time for there to be value.  I think I'd make this wide open weight something like 35% Garrett, 25% Mega, 15% Graff, 10% Wright, 10% Gross, and 5% Morrison/Little.  So this wins 30% of the time, so there's a lot of value here.[/size]65 kilograms:Logan Stieber -210 At these odds, you need to win 68%.  I'd put Steiber around 75% as he will be ready for Eierman and just teched most of the rest of the field at the Open, so a bit of value here. [/size]70 kilograms:Frank Molinaro +150 Need to win more than 40% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Frank gets to the best of 3 final 70% of the time and wins the final 60%, which comes out to 42%.  So not as great as I thought at first, but still has value.[/size]74 kilograms:Isaiah Martinez -235  Need to win 70% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say the best of 3 helps him here.  I could see Nazar beating him once, but not 2 our of 3.  I'd say 90% IMar gets to the final and 80% he wins the final.  So 72%, which means there's a bit of value here.[/size]79 kilograms:Alex Dieringer -400  Need to win 80% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Alex is just a bit over that, but it is hard to lay this price with an X-factor like Zahid sitting out there.[/size]86 kilograms:Richard Perry -280 Need to win 74% of the time.  Perry is around 80% here in my book, so this seems like a pretty solid play.[/size]92 kilograms:Hayden Zillmer +125 Need to win 44% of the time for this to have value.  This is an interesting one.  I happened to see Heflin's injury in Ukraine live and it looked brutal, but he is a really tough guy, so I suspect he'll give it a go.  If Heflin can't go or gets reinjured, I'd say Zilmer would be a huge favorite.  If Heflin can go, but is at all limited, I think Zilmer would probably be a slight favorite (his only 2 losses in the past year were 5-4 to Salas and 2-0 to Cox).  If Heflin is full go, he'd be the favorite, but Zilmer would still have a shot.  It depends how likely you think each of those cases are, but I think it adds up to Zilmer being around 50-50 here.[/size]97 kilograms:Kyven Gadson +140 - Need to win more than 42% of the time for this to have value.  Pretty similar situation to Molinaro above.  I don't love this play, but it is the best one on the board at this weight.[/size]125 kilograms:Dom Bradley +450 - Need to win more than 18% of the time.  I think Dom gets to the final 50% of the time and beats Coon 2 out of 3 40% of the time, so that's 20%, so this is playable.[/size]

 

 

So in conclusion, I'd say 61kg field is the best play and Steiber and Perry are also very strong plays at these odds.  

 

Update:  Looks like the website dropped the 61 field odds from +450 to +400 and Steiber from -210 to -230, but there's still lots of value, even at the new numbers.  They also moved IMAR to -250, which sucks out what little value was there IMO.

Great breakdown

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×