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WTT Betting Odds. Thoughts? Deron Winn +900?


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#21 PSUMike

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 08:02 AM

Definitely like Gadsen. 



#22 rpm002

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:08 AM

55 kilograms:
Daton Fix +160  At these odds, you need to win more than 38% of the time for there to be value.  I think Fix is about 80% to get to the final and about 50-50 to beat Ramos, so there's a tiny bit of value here.  


61 kilograms:
Field +450 At these odds, you need to win more than 18% of the time for there to be value.  I think I'd make this wide open weight something like 35% Garrett, 25% Mega, 15% Graff, 10% Wright, 10% Gross, and 5% Morrison/Little.  So this wins 30% of the time, so there's a lot of value here.


65 kilograms:
Logan Stieber -210 At these odds, you need to win 68%.  I'd put Steiber around 75% as he will be ready for Eierman and just teched most of the rest of the field at the Open, so a bit of value here. 


70 kilograms:
Frank Molinaro +150 Need to win more than 40% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Frank gets to the best of 3 final 70% of the time and wins the final 60%, which comes out to 42%.  So not as great as I thought at first, but still has value.

74 kilograms:
Isaiah Martinez -235  Need to win 70% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say the best of 3 helps him here.  I could see Nazar beating him once, but not 2 our of 3.  I'd say 90% IMar gets to the final and 80% he wins the final.  So 72%, which means there's a bit of value here.

79 kilograms:
Alex Dieringer -400  Need to win 80% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Alex is just a bit over that, but it is hard to lay this price with an X-factor like Zahid sitting out there.

86 kilograms:
Richard Perry -280 Need to win 74% of the time.  Perry is around 80% here in my book, so this seems like a pretty solid play.

92 kilograms:
Hayden Zillmer +125 Need to win 44% of the time for this to have value.  This is an interesting one.  I happened to see Heflin's injury in Ukraine live and it looked brutal, but he is a really tough guy, so I suspect he'll give it a go.  If Heflin can't go or gets reinjured, I'd say Zilmer would be a huge favorite.  If Heflin can go, but is at all limited, I think Zilmer would probably be a slight favorite (his only 2 losses in the past year were 5-4 to Salas and 2-0 to Cox).  If Heflin is full go, he'd be the favorite, but Zilmer would still have a shot.  It depends how likely you think each of those cases are, but I think it adds up to Zilmer being around 50-50 here.

97 kilograms:
Kyven Gadson +140 - Need to win more than 42% of the time for this to have value.  Pretty similar situation to Molinaro above.  I don't love this play, but it is the best one on the board at this weight.

125 kilograms:
Dom Bradley +450 - Need to win more than 18% of the time.  I think Dom gets to the final 50% of the time and beats Coon 2 out of 3 40% of the time, so that's 20%, so this is playable.
 

 

So in conclusion, I'd say 61kg field is the best play and Steiber and Perry are also very strong plays at these odds.  

 

Update:  Looks like the website dropped the 61 field odds from +450 to +400 and Steiber from -210 to -230, but there's still lots of value, even at the new numbers.  They also moved IMAR to -250, which sucks out what little value was there IMO.


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#23 GoNotQuietly

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:59 PM

So, pretty happy about the Supreme Court ruling, rpm002 ?


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#24 Ogalthorpe Haywood

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:30 PM

55 kilograms:Daton Fix +160  At these odds, you need to win more than 38% of the time for there to be value.  I think Fix is about 80% to get to the final and about 50-50 to beat Ramos, so there's a tiny bit of value here.  [/size]61 kilograms:Field +450 At these odds, you need to win more than 18% of the time for there to be value.  I think I'd make this wide open weight something like 35% Garrett, 25% Mega, 15% Graff, 10% Wright, 10% Gross, and 5% Morrison/Little.  So this wins 30% of the time, so there's a lot of value here.[/size]65 kilograms:Logan Stieber -210 At these odds, you need to win 68%.  I'd put Steiber around 75% as he will be ready for Eierman and just teched most of the rest of the field at the Open, so a bit of value here. [/size]70 kilograms:Frank Molinaro +150 Need to win more than 40% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Frank gets to the best of 3 final 70% of the time and wins the final 60%, which comes out to 42%.  So not as great as I thought at first, but still has value.[/size]74 kilograms:Isaiah Martinez -235  Need to win 70% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say the best of 3 helps him here.  I could see Nazar beating him once, but not 2 our of 3.  I'd say 90% IMar gets to the final and 80% he wins the final.  So 72%, which means there's a bit of value here.[/size]79 kilograms:Alex Dieringer -400  Need to win 80% of the time for there to be value.  I'd say Alex is just a bit over that, but it is hard to lay this price with an X-factor like Zahid sitting out there.[/size]86 kilograms:Richard Perry -280 Need to win 74% of the time.  Perry is around 80% here in my book, so this seems like a pretty solid play.[/size]92 kilograms:Hayden Zillmer +125 Need to win 44% of the time for this to have value.  This is an interesting one.  I happened to see Heflin's injury in Ukraine live and it looked brutal, but he is a really tough guy, so I suspect he'll give it a go.  If Heflin can't go or gets reinjured, I'd say Zilmer would be a huge favorite.  If Heflin can go, but is at all limited, I think Zilmer would probably be a slight favorite (his only 2 losses in the past year were 5-4 to Salas and 2-0 to Cox).  If Heflin is full go, he'd be the favorite, but Zilmer would still have a shot.  It depends how likely you think each of those cases are, but I think it adds up to Zilmer being around 50-50 here.[/size]97 kilograms:Kyven Gadson +140 - Need to win more than 42% of the time for this to have value.  Pretty similar situation to Molinaro above.  I don't love this play, but it is the best one on the board at this weight.[/size]125 kilograms:Dom Bradley +450 - Need to win more than 18% of the time.  I think Dom gets to the final 50% of the time and beats Coon 2 out of 3 40% of the time, so that's 20%, so this is playable.[/size]
 
 
So in conclusion, I'd say 61kg field is the best play and Steiber and Perry are also very strong plays at these odds.  
 
Update:  Looks like the website dropped the 61 field odds from +450 to +400 and Steiber from -210 to -230, but there's still lots of value, even at the new numbers.  They also moved IMAR to -250, which sucks out what little value was there IMO.


Great breakdown
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#25 spladle08

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:16 AM

Reenan +750 gets award for biggest dog winner 
while 
Zahid +300 comes in a respectable second 



#26 Billyhoyle

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:19 AM

Reenan +750 gets award for biggest dog winner 
while 
Zahid +300 comes in a respectable second 

Zahid +300 would drop very quickly.  How do you not have Gadsen and Zilmer as a bigger underdogs?  Dake has never made a world team.  



#27 spladle08

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:21 AM

Zahid +300 would drop very quickly.  How do you not have Gadsen and Zilmer as a bigger underdogs?  Dake has never made a world team.  

The odds on the first page were the actual lines from BetDSI 

I was just saying those 2 dogs came through very big 


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#28 Billyhoyle

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:25 AM

The odds on the first page were the actual lines from BetDSI 

I was just saying those 2 dogs came through very big 

Ohhh I was confused.  I thought you were saying that those would be the odds for Final Ten. Thanks for clarifying.  


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#29 rpm002

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:43 AM

Reenan +750 gets award for biggest dog winner 
while 
Zahid +300 comes in a respectable second 

 

Actually Schafer was part of the field at the Open, which was listed at +2500!

 

Hope no one lost too much money betting on Perry.... really didn't see that coming.  Fix, Zilmer, and Gadsen all came through at plus money, in addition to the strong play on Steiber, so at least a few things went right.


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