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#1 spladle08

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 08:16 AM

We obviously have Final X still to go, but with the contestants set, how many world medals we expecting this year. I'm making my medal percentages now. 
 

57kg MFS: Thomas Gilman vs. Daton Fix
Last year  I had Gilman at 10%... shows what I know, I will give us a 50% chance at the lightest weight, both men are capable of medaling.

 

61kg MFS: Joe Colon vs. Nahshon Garrett 
15% Our 2 most rollie-pollie guys, If we lose to a good guy early maybe we can win a bronze depending on who else lost to that same guy (I hate that rule)

 

65kg MFS: Joey McKenna vs. Logan Stieber (*no reason this is bolded)
30%... Logie can beat anyone or lose to anyone, no idea what to expect, Mckenna is solid but it's just a tough weight and I'm not thrilled with him either


70kg MFS: James Green vs. Jason Chamberlain
70% ...James G has proven it time and again he just wins at this weight, no other weight, but this one he is top 3 

 

74kg MFS: Jordan Burroughs vs. Isaiah Martinez
90%... JB has been more "in form" the last year than he has in a long time, I wouldn't expect him to miss a medal all together. 
 

79kg MFS: Kyle Dake vs. Zahid Valencia
I would give Dake 80% chance, so if Zahid beats him after smashing RInger (who I also would have given 80% chance to) I have to give him at least 80 right?
 

86kg MFS: David Taylor vs. Nick Reenan
I think only Yaz can decisively beat Taylor, but between Russia, Cuba, and Turkey, he has some very stiff competition, 70% 
 

97kg MFS: Kyle Snyder vs. Kyven Gadson
100% the Salas ice-rink match aside, nobody is close but The Tank,  Snyder will medal 
 

92kg MFS: J'den Cox vs. Hayden Zillmer
I think Cox can beat everyone in the weight. Not saying he will, he really shuts down once he gets a point or 2. I will go 70%
 

125kg MFS: Nick Gwiazdowski vs. Adam Coon
70% Gwiz has really separated himself from the field, while he has 0 chance against the top 2, he has a good shot against everyone else, If Coon beats him I will expect the same 

So basically after the first 3 weights, I assume we comfortably medal at all the others. 
I can't tell if I am a ridiculous homer this year or if our team is legitimately that stacked.


Edited by spladle08, 24 May 2018 - 08:19 AM.


#2 LoStNuMbEr

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 08:29 AM

There is danger in using past results to justify future returns, but other than 61, 79, and 86, we have a medalist returning at every weight.  And I think most would agree that Dake/Taylor have been world class for several years but stuck behind Burroughs/Cox.



#3 CaliWrestler

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 08:31 AM

We obviously have Final X still to go, but with the contestants set, how many world medals we expecting this year. I'm making my medal percentages now. 
 

57kg MFS: Thomas Gilman vs. Daton Fix
Last year  I had Gilman at 10%... shows what I know, I will give us a 50% chance at the lightest weight, both men are capable of medaling.

 

61kg MFS: Joe Colon vs. Nahshon Garrett 
0% Our 2 most rollie-pollie guys, If we lose to a good guy early maybe we can win a bronze depending on who else lost to that same guy (I hate that rule)

 

65kg MFS: Joey McKenna vs. Logan Stieber (*no reason this is bolded)
10%... Logie can beat anyone or lose to anyone, no idea what to expect, Mckenna is solid but it's just a tough weight and I'm not thrilled with him either


70kg MFS: James Green vs. Jason Chamberlain
80% ...James G has proven it time and again he just wins at this weight, no other weight, but this one he is top 3 

 

74kg MFS: Jordan Burroughs vs. Isaiah Martinez
100%... JB has been more "in form" the last year than he has in a long time, I wouldn't expect him to miss a medal all together. 
 

79kg MFS: Kyle Dake vs. Zahid Valencia
I would give Dake 90% chance, so if Zahid beats him after smashing RInger (who I also would have given 80% chance to) I have to give him at least 80 right?
 

86kg MFS: David Taylor vs. Nick Reenan
I think only Yaz can decisively beat Taylor, but between Russia, Cuba, and Turkey, he has some very stiff competition, 100% 

I dont think Yaz beats him decisively based on him pinning Yaz and DT hasn't lost since I dont even know when.
 

97kg MFS: Kyle Snyder vs. Kyven Gadson
100% the Salas ice-rink match aside, nobody is close but The Tank,  Snyder will medal 
 

92kg MFS: J'den Cox vs. Hayden Zillmer
I think Cox can beat everyone in the weight. Not saying he will, he really shuts down once he gets a point or 2. I will go 70%

Cox has not looked good at this weight and your right he shuts down once he's up
 

125kg MFS: Nick Gwiazdowski vs. Adam Coon
80% Gwiz has really separated himself from the field, while he has 0 chance against the top 2, he has a good shot against everyone else, If Coon beats him I will expect the same 

So basically after the first 3 weights, I assume we comfortably medal at all the others. 
I can't tell if I am a ridiculous homer this year or if our team is legitimately that stacked.

 

I dont think Coon beats him and give him 80% chance to medal

 

Not bad predictions



#4 Lurker

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 08:34 AM

Don't think it's homer....Gold medal contenders:

Green: Bronze and silver the last two years of a true 70kg world. And if Chamizo is up a weight...
JB: nuff said
Dake: He's beaten some studs. Not at all a gold medal favorite, but a contender
DT: Has beaten some studs. Certainly in the mix.
Cox: if Sad is up again this year he's right there in the hunt
Snyder: Nuff said

And we still have two returning medalists and a *world champ* not mentioned. It is as stacked a team we've had in some time.
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#5 spladle08

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 08:57 AM

There is danger in using past results to justify future returns, but other than 61, 79, and 86, we have a medalist returning at every weight.  And I think most would agree that Dake/Taylor have been world class for several years but stuck behind Burroughs/Cox.

Yeah 61 is the only weight I really feel like we don't have much of a chance 

 

I dont think Coon beats him and give him 80% chance to medal

 

Not bad predictions

On your Taylor pinning Yaz comment, we gotta take that one with a grain, I think that was Yaz's last loss as well and one of his first events up in weight (look at DT's early struggles when he tried to bump), and DT couldn't make our national team. I think DT can pin anyone but his closeness to Torreblanca reminds me there are some tough dudes out there and YAZ is the toughest. 
 

 

Don't think it's homer....Gold medal contenders:

Green: Bronze and silver the last two years of a true 70kg world. And if Chamizo is up a weight...
JB: nuff said
Dake: He's beaten some studs. Not at all a gold medal favorite, but a contender
DT: Has beaten some studs. Certainly in the mix.
Cox: if Sad is up again this year he's right there in the hunt
Snyder: Nuff said

And we still have two returning medalists and a *world champ* not mentioned. It is as stacked a team we've had in some time.

Really is such a great team. Hoping everyone performs at the top of their game 



#6 spladle

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 03:29 PM

And there lies the rub. Weird things happen at the worlds and we get bad calls or bad match ups, etc. Of ten weights, realistically I think we will have 3 medals with 2 fifth place finishes,

Edited by spladle, 24 May 2018 - 03:30 PM.


#7 Housebuye

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 11:41 PM

And there lies the rub. Weird things happen at the worlds and we get bad calls or bad match ups, etc. Of ten weights, realistically I think we will have 3 medals with 2 fifth place finishes,

This is possible. I don’t agree but possible.

Who do you have finishing where?

#8 spladle08

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 11:59 PM

And there lies the rub. Weird things happen at the worlds and we get bad calls or bad match ups, etc. Of ten weights, realistically I think we will have 3 medals with 2 fifth place finishes,

Low balling me ;) 
but 5 in medal contention doesn't sound bad either. 
I just cant see us with less than 4 medals between Green/Burroughs/Dake/Taylor/Cox/Snyder/Gwiz
throw in Fix/Gilman and Steibler if the over under was set at 5.5 I think I would take over. I would be nervous but feels like the right line



#9 rpm002

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 02:11 AM

I think the original post odds are mostly too high... crazy stuff happens with officiating, injuries, etc. and there are tons of good wrestlers in the world. Also, the repechage introduces more randomness.  For example, if Synder gets upset in the quarters and the guy who beat him has Sadulaev in the semis, Snyder is very unlikely to medal.

 

57kg: 20% - I still think medalling last time was mostly due to a very kind draw. 

61kg: 15% - Would need a great draw to have a chance.

65kg: 20% - Not as down on this one as you.... Steiber can beat anyone

70kg: 65% 

74kg: 75%

79kg: 50%

86kg: 70%

92kg: 50%

97kg: 85%

125kg: 50%



#10 spladle08

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 02:29 AM

I think the original post odds are mostly too high... crazy stuff happens with officiating, injuries, etc. and there are tons of good wrestlers in the world. Also, the repechage introduces more randomness.  For example, if Synder gets upset in the quarters and the guy who beat him has Sadulaev in the semis, Snyder is very unlikely to medal.

 

57kg: 20% - I still think medalling last time was mostly due to a very kind draw.  50%

61kg: 15% - Would need a great draw to have a chance. 15%

65kg: 20% - Not as down on this one as you.... Steiber can beat anyone  30%

70kg: 65% 70%

74kg: 75% 90

79kg: 50% 80

86kg: 70% 70

92kg: 50% 70%

97kg: 85% 100%

125kg: 50% 70%

So I put my numbers to the right of all yours and we are generally the same, the biggest disparity obviously being at 57kg (admittedly a Fix homer but Gillman is right there with everyone except Japan. 
61 kg Same 
65kg you claimed to have more faith in Stiebs but gave him a lower #
70kg 5% diff on James G, negligible 
74kg surprised you think there is a 1 in 4 chance JB wiffs (only previous DNP being that dreadful RIO)
79kg 50/50 for ole Dake huh, a bad draw could hurt him but I think he is medals more than he doesnt 
86kg Same 
92kg Wont argue who knows what Cox shows
Snyder Aint missing, hasn't and wont 
125kg Same as Cox, its draw based essentially just feel Gwiz has the stuff
 



#11 rpm002

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 03:45 AM

Meant to say 35% for 65.  Not much higher, but a bit and worth noting since it was the only one in that direction.

 

I would say there are a few of the better wrestlers that I would bump up 5% or so on the day of weigh-ins at Worlds.... looking at it today, there is injury risk and a chance of a big upset at Final X that I am pricing in.


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#12 Gantry

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 04:07 AM

Is day two semis and finals or just finals and placing matches?  Also is day two 2kg this year or not?

 

Even if it is 2kg on day two I think the US wrestlers will have an advantage in terms of weight because they spent most of their lives doing same day and multi-day weighins.  This is new to the foreign competitors.  If the semis are on day two right after a second weighin, that could definitely help some of our guys who get there...


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#13 spladle

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 04:57 AM

The medal potential ceiling is really high, however the only 2 I would be willing to bet on making the finals is Burroughs and Snyder.
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#14 sgallan

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 05:18 AM

We obviously have Final X still to go, but with the contestants set, how many world medals we expecting this year. I'm making my medal percentages now.

57kg MFS: Thomas Gilman vs. Daton Fix
Last year I had Gilman at 10%... shows what I know, I will give us a 50% chance at the lightest weight, both men are capable of medaling.


61kg MFS: Joe Colon vs. Nahshon Garrett
15% Our 2 most rollie-pollie guys, If we lose to a good guy early maybe we can win a bronze depending on who else lost to that same guy (I hate that rule)


65kg MFS: Joey McKenna vs. Logan Stieber (*no reason this is bolded)
30%... Logie can beat anyone or lose to anyone, no idea what to expect, Mckenna is solid but it's just a tough weight and I'm not thrilled with him either


70kg MFS: James Green vs. Jason Chamberlain
70% ...James G has proven it time and again he just wins at this weight, no other weight, but this one he is top 3


74kg MFS: Jordan Burroughs vs. Isaiah Martinez
90%... JB has been more "in form" the last year than he has in a long time, I wouldn't expect him to miss a medal all together.

79kg MFS: Kyle Dake vs. Zahid Valencia
I would give Dake 80% chance, so if Zahid beats him after smashing RInger (who I also would have given 80% chance to) I have to give him at least 80 right?

86kg MFS: David Taylor vs. Nick Reenan
I think only Yaz can decisively beat Taylor, but between Russia, Cuba, and Turkey, he has some very stiff competition, 70%

97kg MFS: Kyle Snyder vs. Kyven Gadson
100% the Salas ice-rink match aside, nobody is close but The Tank, Snyder will medal

92kg MFS: J'den Cox vs. Hayden Zillmer
I think Cox can beat everyone in the weight. Not saying he will, he really shuts down once he gets a point or 2. I will go 70%

125kg MFS: Nick Gwiazdowski vs. Adam Coon
70% Gwiz has really separated himself from the field, while he has 0 chance against the top 2, he has a good shot against everyone else, If Coon beats him I will expect the same

So basically after the first 3 weights, I assume we comfortably medal at all the others.
I can't tell if I am a ridiculous homer this year or if our team is legitimately that stacked.

This. I agree with all of it.
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#15 Housebuye

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 05:22 AM

The medal potential ceiling is really high, however the only 2 I would be willing to bet on making the finals is Burroughs and Snyder.

With the way team score works, a finalist isnt that big of a bump va medalists. In fact, two 5ths = 1 gold.

Super interesting with 10 weights. We could theoretically:
57 - 5th
61 - no placement
65 5th
70 - 5th
74 - gold
79 - 3rd
86 - 3rd
92 - 3rd
97 - gold
125 - 5th

5 medals, but still win. Still a ton of points
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#16 CaliWrestler

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 08:00 AM

With the way team score works, a finalist isnt that big of a bump va medalists. In fact, two 5ths = 1 gold.

Super interesting with 10 weights. We could theoretically:
57 - 5th (I think Fix can get here)
61 - no placement (Correct)
65 5th (Doubtful)
70 - 5th (He's been not wrestling good I could see 5th)
74 - gold (Agree)
79 - 3rd (him being mostly defense wrester I think will hurt him here I say DNP)
86 - 3rd (1st-3rd) Agree with you probably 3rd
92 - 3rd (Depends on who shows up and if he's ready)
97 - gold (agree)
125 - 5th (I see 3rd or 5th) agree

5 medals, but still win. Still a ton of points

 

see above 



#17 2td3nf

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Posted 30 May 2018 - 02:25 PM

The Final X for 125kg is scheduled for Saturday June 23 in Bethlehem, PA. The Greco WTT are scheduled for June 21-22 in Tulsa, OK. Will Coon be at both?

Also, just watched the Robbie Smith vs Coon US Open final again and was amazed at how much Robbie moved Coon all over the mat. Perhaps Coon was fatigued from wrestling both styles that day?

#18 Lurker

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Posted 31 May 2018 - 02:30 AM

That’s probably a pretty good guess. Haven’t heard anything about whether or not he will be at both. Just taking a guess, based on you said how he was just pushed around by Robbie, he may be thinking his best bet for 2017 is to focus all his attention on the 2-3 matches on the 23rd.
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#19 Buckeyebison

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Posted 31 May 2018 - 03:41 AM

Coon’s GR skills wasn’t enough. Robbie used the GR skills and experience to beat Coon. Once Coon get more experience and GR skills, Coon would be able to beat Robbie.

Just that Robbie had more experience than Coon at GR.

#20 2td3nf

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:41 AM

The Final X for 125kg is scheduled for Saturday June 23 in Bethlehem, PA. The Greco WTT are scheduled for June 21-22 in Tulsa, OK. Will Coon be at both?

Also, just watched the Robbie Smith vs Coon US Open final again and was amazed at how much Robbie moved Coon all over the mat. Perhaps Coon was fatigued from wrestling both styles that day?

 

So there it is, looks like Coon will enter both Greco and the freestyle Final X. Gotta love this kid.

 

Interesting interview and I was wondering about this, but Adam does talk about possible travel difficulties from Greco Trials in Tulsa to Final X in Bethlehem the next day.

 

https://www.flowrest...212298&limit=27


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