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spladle08

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57 - Last year was a very down year. 20% shot at medaling and I think that's generous.

61 - 1%...the stars REALLY need to align here. Neither Colon nor Nashon is that level and I'll be surprised if either win a match against a decent country. If Maple was there, I'd say 10%. 

65 - 15%? Logan is too small for the weight and not sturdy enough defensively. He'll probably win 1-2.

70 - 65% Let's not forget Green DNPd 2 years ago. 

74 - 90% JB is still JB

79 - 75% Dake looks fantastic but he just took a loss at the World Cup. 

86 - 85% Taylor hasn't lost to any international competition in a long time now and he keeps looking better and better. 

92 - 50% Still not sure how Cox will look up a weight. 

97 - 99% Unless he slips on a banana peel and hurts himself, he'll at least make the finals. 

Fatties - 30% I love Gwiz but he had a nice draw last year in a thin field. I think he'll do well and win a few but I don't expect him to place. 

 

EDIT: Forgot about J'den...

Edited by PSUMike

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57 - Last year was a very down year. 20% shot at medaling and I think that's generous.

61 - 1%...the stars REALLY need to align here. Neither Colon nor Nashon is that level and I'll be surprised if either win a match against a decent country. If Maple was there, I'd say 10%.

65 - 15%? Logan is too small for the weight and not sturdy enough defensively. He'll probably win 1-2.

70 - 65% Let's not forget Green DNPd 2 years ago.

74 - 90% JB is still JB

79 - 75% Dake looks fantastic but he just took a loss at the World Cup.

86 - 85% Taylor hasn't lost to any international competition in a long time now and he keeps looking better and better.

92 - 50% Still not sure how Cox will look up a weight.

97 - 99% Unless he slips on a banana peel and hurts himself, he'll at least make the finals.

Fatties - 30% I love Gwiz but he had a nice draw last year in a thin field. I think he'll do well and win a few but I don't expect him to place.

 

EDIT: Forgot about J'den...

Lol did final x already happen....?

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Lol did final x already happen....?

 

57 and 61 were inclusive. I think the rest are foregone conclusions. The only weights where I could conceivably see an upset, no matter how minuscule the chances are 79 and HWT but I don't give the dogs too much of a chance in those fights.  

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57 and 61 were inclusive. I think the rest are foregone conclusions. The only weights where I could conceivably see an upset, no matter how minuscule the chances are 79 and HWT but I don't give the dogs too much of a chance in those fights.

Fair enough

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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The Final X for 125kg is scheduled for Saturday June 23 in Bethlehem, PA. The Greco WTT are scheduled for June 21-22 in Tulsa, OK. Will Coon be at both?

 

Also, just watched the Robbie Smith vs Coon US Open final again and was amazed at how much Robbie moved Coon all over the mat. Perhaps Coon was fatigued from wrestling both styles that day?

Why are people surprised by this? He's done it every time they've ever met. I would put Coon as middle of the road among our top 25 Greco talents. And all but a couple of those don't come close to medaling and get big brothered at worlds. Robbie is one of the rare medal threats we have so it follows that he'll make one of our ho-hum Greco talents look awkward.

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57 - Last year was a very down year. 20% shot at medaling and I think that's generous.

61 - 1%...the stars REALLY need to align here. Neither Colon nor Nashon is that level and I'll be surprised if either win a match against a decent country. If Maple was there, I'd say 10%. 

65 - 15%? Logan is too small for the weight and not sturdy enough defensively. He'll probably win 1-2.

70 - 65% Let's not forget Green DNPd 2 years ago. 

74 - 90% JB is still JB

79 - 75% Dake looks fantastic but he just took a loss at the World Cup. 

86 - 85% Taylor hasn't lost to any international competition in a long time now and he keeps looking better and better. 

92 - 50% Still not sure how Cox will look up a weight. 

97 - 99% Unless he slips on a banana peel and hurts himself, he'll at least make the finals. 

Fatties - 30% I love Gwiz but he had a nice draw last year in a thin field. I think he'll do well and win a few but I don't expect him to place. 

 

EDIT: Forgot about J'den...

 

If you're basing your prediction  on Dake's recent loss at the world cup, perhaps you ought to reconsider

 

"Dake was dominant in each of his first three matches at 79 kg (approximately 174 pounds), all coming by technical superiority, before knocking off two-time Olympian and 2016 bronze medalist Jabrayil Hasanov of Azerbaijan in the gold medal match 5-3. He joined teammates Jordan Burroughs, David Taylor and Kyle Snyder in running through the two-day event with perfect 4-0 records at Iowa's Carver-Hawkeye Stadium."

 

"Dake outscored Sachin Giri of India 11-0 and past world medalist Sohsuke Takatani of Japan 10-0 on day one for wins by technical superiority, then did the same to Tariel Gaphrindashvili of Georgia by a 10-0 score on Sunday morning. After trailing 2-1 in the second period, Dake earned a step-out point, gathered a takedown and was credited with a penalty point to hold off the former Olympic medalist. The United States earned the 6-4 win over Azerbaijan to claim its first team title since 2003, with Dake's bout considered to be a swing match for both sides."

Edited by Cletus_Tucker

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57 - Last year was a very down year. 20% shot at medaling and I think that's generous.

61 - 1%...the stars REALLY need to align here. Neither Colon nor Nashon is that level and I'll be surprised if either win a match against a decent country. If Maple was there, I'd say 10%.

65 - 15%? Logan is too small for the weight and not sturdy enough defensively. He'll probably win 1-2.

70 - 65% Let's not forget Green DNPd 2 years ago.

74 - 90% JB is still JB

79 - 75% Dake looks fantastic but he just took a loss at the World Cup.

86 - 85% Taylor hasn't lost to any international competition in a long time now and he keeps looking better and better.

92 - 50% Still not sure how Cox will look up a weight.

97 - 99% Unless he slips on a banana peel and hurts himself, he'll at least make the finals.

Fatties - 30% I love Gwiz but he had a nice draw last year in a thin field. I think he'll do well and win a few but I don't expect him to place.

 

EDIT: Forgot about J'den...

Dake didn’t lose at the world cup

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If you're basing your prediction  on Dake's recent loss at the world cup, perhaps you ought to reconsider

 

"Dake was dominant in each of his first three matches at 79 kg (approximately 174 pounds), all coming by technical superiority, before knocking off two-time Olympian and 2016 bronze medalist Jabrayil Hasanov of Azerbaijan in the gold medal match 5-3. He joined teammates Jordan Burroughs, David Taylor and Kyle Snyder in running through the two-day event with perfect 4-0 records at Iowa's Carver-Hawkeye Stadium."

 

"Dake outscored Sachin Giri of India 11-0 and past world medalist Sohsuke Takatani of Japan 10-0 on day one for wins by technical superiority, then did the same to Tariel Gaphrindashvili of Georgia by a 10-0 score on Sunday morning. After trailing 2-1 in the second period, Dake earned a step-out point, gathered a takedown and was credited with a penalty point to hold off the former Olympic medalist. The United States earned the 6-4 win over Azerbaijan to claim its first team title since 2003, with Dake's bout considered to be a swing match for both sides."

 

Dake didn’t lose at the world cup

 

Said WC, meant Yarygin. You are correct. 

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My pics

 

57kg Thomas Gilman.  This is a tossup.  Fix has hype and has done well.  So has Gilman.  I take Gilman this year.

61kg MFS:  Nahshon Garrett   I have no reason.  I just think Garrett will pull it off.
 

65kg Logan Steiber.  If he arrives he will win.  I'm guessing he arrives and is ready.


70kg James Green.   I believe Green is the man at this weight for now. 

 

74kg Jordan Burroughs.  This is a really close call but I am going with Burroughs by LANDSLIDE
 

79kg MFS: Kyle Dake.  Tossup to me.  No prediction worth the paper (or digital screen) it is written on.  Ringer was closing in on Dake and Zahid dismantled Ringer.  My gut tells me Dake. 
 

86kg MFS: David Taylor.  Taylor appears to be unstoppable.  I'm guessing that's why a two time bronze medallist at this weight moved up a weight.  Taylor has shown he is on a mission.  I predict fall in both bouts. 
 

92kg MFS: J'den Cox.  Cox has proved he is world class.  It will take a lot to take him out.  I think Taylor would have done it this year.  Good thing 92Kg was provided. 

 

97kg MFS: Kyle Snyder.  Is there any reason to predict a Snyder loss?  Didn't think so.  Snyder wins. 

 

125kg   Nick Gwiz.  I just don't think Coon has the offensive advantage.  In fact, there isn't much offense in his wrestling style.  Plus he is doing GR before FS in this scenario.  I take Gwiz. 
 

mspart

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86kg MFS: David Taylor.  Taylor appears to be unstoppable.  I'm guessing that's why a two time bronze medallist at this weight moved up a weight.  Taylor has shown he is on a mission.  I predict fall in both bouts. 

 

 

You think Cox ran from Taylor!?!  Get real.  Last I checked, Cox beat Taylor (on 1 leg) the last time they wrestled.  Fact is, Cox had a huge cut to get to 86, and he is much better suited at 92.  By separating Dake, Taylor, and Cox, this gives the US by far their best lineup.

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You think Cox ran from Taylor!?! Get real. Last I checked, Cox beat Taylor (on 1 leg) the last time they wrestled. Fact is, Cox had a huge cut to get to 86, and he is much better suited at 92. By separating Dake, Taylor, and Cox, this gives the US by far their best lineup.

You posted almost exactly what I was going to post. Taylor is ecstatic that 92 Kg was created.

 

Huge Taylor fan but he wasn't going to beat J'Den. And Taylor had a much better training situation with the NLWC.

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57kg Gilman: Yes, he was a silver medalist.  However, it seems like we tend to have a "first timer" who has a good run (i.e Logan).  Even Molinaro and Nick Simmons had a good run. Didn't medal but a good run. Maybe it is they aren't scouted, or go for broke and have nothing to lose.  Whatever the case we seem to have someone give a good go or make a run, but then after the first struggle.  I feel this could be the case for Gilman.  He will be more known and better scouted.  For this reason, I give Fix a better chance to medal than Gilman.  Yes, fix is probably a little more known internationally because of his Junior run, but I still give fix a better chance if he makes the team.   

 

61kg: I give Colon no chance.  However, if Garrett makes the team I think he is that "first-timer" in this run if we have one.  You can train and recreate situations as it relates to technique and position.  It is very hard to simulate speed though.  Especially speed like Nashon has.  He is FAST.   While I am not saying that he will place because I think his chances are low, he does have a level of speed that could potentially catch people off guard.  

 

65kg: Logan and McKenna:  The thing about high-level tournaments is you have to be consistent.   You can't have two good matches and a bad match and expect to medal.  You have to be consistent.  You "average" so to speak has to be even.  You need four 80% percents that average 80%.  You can't have two 90% and two 70%'s an average 80%.  In competition, it isn't the same thing.  The two 70% can lose a match that costs despite the win of 90% that the 80% wouldn't have got.  If that makes sense.  An athlete with a constant high percent will get further than having an extremely high percent and then turning around and having a low percentage that averages the same.  For that reason, I give McKenna a much better chance of medaling than Logan.  Logan can have a great match and beat the best guys, but then turn around and lose to someone not as good.  As to where McKenna could pick off a 90% guy who has a bad match but won't lose to a lesser guy because of a bad match. So I give McKenna an outside chance to medal as to where I give logan virtually no chance. 

 

70kg: Green: Again consistency.  Green medals. I see it the same.

 

74kg:  Jordan is a Wiley veteran who wins.  He has had two bad matches in his international career and it cost him another Olympic medal.  I do not see history repeating itself here.  At the very least he medals. 

 

79kg: Dake... Not gonna lie.  I have always been a Taylor fan.  However, bottom line.. DAKE WINS.  Period.  Other than Jordan no US wrestler has beaten him consistently.  He went up from 74kg and wrestled Cox, and almost won.  The kid is insanely explosive and simply wins.  I don't see him not medaling.  Personally, I think it is more likely that everyone else on the team does not medal, who is not named Kyle or Jordan, than Dake. Again it is that consistency.  Dake just does not put together a bad match, and I am one of those who thought Taylor was going to win every time. I just felt statistically Taylor should get at least one... and he never did. 

 

86kg:  Taylor:  I think Taylor has a good chance of medaling.  However, when Taylor has lost, it has been in pressure cooker matches (Dake, Cox, Burroughs, Jenkins).  Taylor is 99%...  99% of the time.  However, he can have a 70% (bad match that cost him).  On paper, and theoretically he should medal, but I also think he is the most likely "highly probable medalist" to not medal on the team.....  Due to his occasional lapses. 

 

92kg: Cox: Again, I go with consistency.  I think he is at least Bronze, maybe Silver.  When the Russians and Iranians lose outside of the Worlds and Olympics we say "they don't worry about those competitions, they train an peak for the big moments".  Yet when a US wrestler loses we say, it depends who shows up.  Cox beat Snyder his senior year in Fargo, won 3 NCAA titles could have been 4 if not been for ankle picks in both his losses his sophomore year, made the U.S. team, qualified the weight in his first senior international competition, medaled in the Olympics, then made the world team without competing international between the qualifier and the worlds, medaled at the worlds (when people acted like the Olympics was a fluke), and is now looking to be on the next world team.  In that process, he beat Dake and Taylor.  Regardless of whatever inconsistencies Cox has outside of the major competitions themselves, the guy is consistent come show time on the biggest stage.  He honestly should medal. 

 

97kg:  Snyder:  Statistically, I am more worried about Snyder than anyone.  Jordan was "all I see is gold" till he missed the gold.  Gold-Gold-Gold-etc....  means 100%.  100% is hard to sustain indefinitely, at some point he will not be at 100%.  I hope that is a long time from now.  However, the more Golds he earns the higher the chance he misses it the next go around.  I don't think that time is upon him yet.  So I think Gold. 

 

125kg: Gwiz is still on an upward trajectory and is consistent.  Bronze is very realistic, and truthfully, he is good enough that if one of the top two have any lapse he could pop into the finals.  

 

So what is my prediciton:

 

Burroughs, Dake, Snyder: I think Gold

Taylor, Cox, Green: Silver or Bronz

 

I really think we have 5 medalist... If we don't wrestle well.  6 if we do.  I just can't see the first 3 medaling and at least 3 of the next 3  not medaling.

 

Gwiz: I think has a strong shot at Bronze, and if it is Fix, I think there is a good shot there as well. 

 

Then I say that McKenna or Nahsan are equal long shots.

 

I think we take home six medals.  We really have 8 who realistically could medal, and if we get McKenna and Nashon through I think that we have two legit outside shot.  However, statistically and taking into account variables I think 6 is very realistic. 7 wouldn't completely shock me.  Yes, I know that is a dream or an over zealous hope.  Nevertheless, if there is a dream year it is this one. 

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You think Cox ran from Taylor!?!  Get real.  Last I checked, Cox beat Taylor (on 1 leg) the last time they wrestled.  Fact is, Cox had a huge cut to get to 86, and he is much better suited at 92.  By separating Dake, Taylor, and Cox, this gives the US by far their best lineup.

 

Well, I was being a little funny with that one.  But with Taylor being a wrecking crew at Yarygin, the toughest tournament in the world, and at the World Cup, yeah, I would think it would cross someone's mind to go up a weight where it is easier to make the weight rather than defend the weight you have wrestled at for the last 3 years.  I'm glad of the new weight because we are almost guaranteed to have them both on the team winning medals.  

 

With regard to could Taylor beat Cox?  I think he has turned the corner and is on a veritable mission now.  I don't think anyone stops him in the US.  That is my opinion, not based on what happened in the trials last year, but based on what Taylor has been doing since.  I never was a Taylor fan but nobody has turned things around like he has this year.  Again, that is just my opinion.

 

mspart 

Edited by mspart

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I agree with Mspart.  Taylor has been wrestling on a level that is WC calibre.  He already owns an individual win over Cox.  The place that he's at psychologically right now, as well as physically, puts him in a situation and position to be the best on the team, not named Kyle Snyder.  

 

To "laugh heartily" at the concept that "Taylor isn't beating Cox" is a bit foolish. Things change.  Variables change.  Dynamics change.  Considering that they were literally a hair apart in their matches, and that DT of "now" is a better version compared to the DT of "then", yeah... 

 

Regardless...  Having a JG/JB/KD/DT/JC/KS/NG lineup from 70kg thru HWT is going to be a AWESOME.

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I agree with Mspart.  Taylor has been wrestling on a level that is WC calibre.  He already owns an individual win over Cox.  The place that he's at psychologically right now, as well as physically, puts him in a situation and position to be the best on the team, not named Kyle Snyder.  

 

To "laugh heartily" at the concept that "Taylor isn't beating Cox" is a bit foolish. Things change.  Variables change.  Dynamics change.  Considering that they were literally a hair apart in their matches, and that DT of "now" is a better version compared to the DT of "then", yeah... 

 

Regardless...  Having a JG/JB/KD/DT/JC/KS/NG lineup from 70kg thru HWT is going to be a AWESOME.

 

Agreed.

 

mspart

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Well, I was being a little funny with that one.  But with Taylor being a wrecking crew at Yarygin, the toughest tournament in the world, and at the World Cup, yeah, I would think it would cross someone's mind to go up a weight where it is easier to make the weight rather than defend the weight you have wrestled at for the last 3 years.  I'm glad of the new weight because we are almost guaranteed to have them both on the team winning medals.  

 

With regard to could Taylor beat Cox?  I think he has turned the corner and is on a veritable mission now.  I don't think anyone stops him in the US.  That is my opinion, not based on what happened in the trials last year, but based on what Taylor has been doing since.  I never was a Taylor fan but nobody has turned things around like he has this year.  Again, that is just my opinion.

 

mspart 

 

I would agree that Taylor is capable of beating Cox, and that he has definitely stepped up his game, but I would still put my money on Cox in a 2 out of 3.  And I think there's no way in hell that Cox was running from Taylor.

And like you, I'm not a DT fan.  After his embarrassing and unsportsmanlike behavior last year,  I'll cheer on a class act like Cox any day over DT.

Edited by KCMO2

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I would agree that Taylor is capable of beating Cox, and that he has definitely stepped up his game, but I would still put my money on Cox in a 2 out of 3.  And I think there's no way in hell that Cox was running from Taylor.

And like you, I'm not a DT fan.  After his embarrassing and unsportsmanlike behavior last year,  I'll cheer on a class act like Cox any day over DT.

 

I cannot fault you at all in what you say.  Taylor did not represent himself well that is for sure.  Cox is a class act I agree.

 

mspart

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I stand by my contention Cox is our most under rated, and under appreciated wrestler. But I get it, you know, Olympic medal, world medal, stellar NCAA credentials..... guy is a bit of a scrub.

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Cox is incredible.  I agree.  I just think Taylor has turned the corner on him.  I could be wrong on that, just my opinion.  I think we are going to have a killer team with Green, Burroughs, Dake (or Zahid), Taylor, Cox, Snyder, and Gwiz there.  I don't see any of these not being at the WC.  That is 7 of 10 weights where I think we should be favored to get a medal. 

 

The complaint years ago going from 10 to 8 weights, and then to 6 weights was that it did not give many people the opportunity.  I think we are seeing an exceptional result coming out of going back to 10 weights now.  This team is just killer.  

 

mspart

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Said WC, meant Yarygin. You are correct. 

 

Dake did lose in the Yarygin finals to Gadzhimagomedov.  But Gadz is ranked 1st in the international rankings, Dake 2nd.  So he's a pretty solid bet despite that loss.  It's not a particularly strong or deep weight class, a lot of tweeners.  

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