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Moneyline for Snyder AND Burroughs

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Snyder and Burroughs winning -4,000

 

Gadsen and Imar winning +2,500

 

Are these numbers big enough?

 

Are these real? What sports book? Asking for a friend that would put $100 on an IMar longshot...

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You can’t have the odds of both imar and Gadsen winning pay less than either Burroughs or Snyder losing (the opposite side of your first bet).

 

I don't. If you think Burroughs and Snyder will both win, you risk 4,000 for 100.

 

If you think IMAR and Gadson will both win, you risk 100 for 2,500.

 

I don't think they have to be symmetrical.

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I don't. If you think Burroughs and Snyder will both win, you risk 4,000 for 100.

 

If you think IMAR and Gadson will both win, you risk 100 for 2,500.

 

I don't think they have to be symmetrical.

So you’re saying that 1 out of 40 times, either Snyder or Burroughs will lose. Then you’re saying 1 out of 25 times both Imart and Gadsen will win. It doesn’t make any sense the way you’ve put these odds together. It’s basic mathematics: you need to understand the difference between an “and” vs “or” logic gate. Maybe I’m wrong here, but I don’t think I am.

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So you’re saying that 1 out of 40 times, either Snyder or Burroughs will lose. Then you’re saying 1 out of 25 times both Imart and Gadsen will win. It doesn’t make any sense the way you’ve put these odds together. It’s basic mathematics: you need to understand the difference between an “and” vs “or” logic gate. Maybe I’m wrong here, but I don’t think I am.

 

Billyshole, I understand AND/OR well enough and I can add and subtract as well as the next guy. I will turn this around, you should learn how to read. Where did I use the "OR" operator (also known as "||" in the C based languages OR "|" in R).

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It isn't just that the odds are asymetric, which is expected to a certain degree for the book to make money, AKA the vig.  The problem is that the two sets of odds are ridiculously out of whack.  I will try to explain this very simply. 

 

There are two matches: 74 and 97 kg, and each match has two possibilities, which I will list below.  

 

For 74:

 

Possibility A:  Burroughs wins, Imart Loses 

Possibility B: Burroughs Loses, Imart Wins

 

For 97:

Possibility X:  Snyder wins, Gadsen loses

Possibility Y: Snyder loses, Gadsen Wins

 

 

Saying "A AND X" will happen is the opposite side of the bet as saying "B OR Y" will happen.  Therefore, you are placing the odds of Imart OR Gadsen" at 40:1 when you have Burroughs AND Snyder winning as -4000.  

 

However, you then list Imart AND Gadsen as 25:1 when you have them at +2500.  

 

If you think Imart and Gadsen each individually has a 10% chance of winning, the odds of Imart OR Gadsen winnings is 19%.  However, the odds of Imart AND Gadsen winning is 1%.  

 

I can keep going with this, but this is basic probability-you can't have the AND event as more likely than the OR event.  

 

You asked if your numbers are big enough, and I'm trying to explain to you that your numbers are inherently flawed.  If you want to calculate this quickly, just decide on your odds for the individual matches.  From there calculate your AND gates and substract what you think is a fair vig.  

 

It's very possible I have some calculation errors somewhere in this post because I haven't had to study probability for a very long time, but the general principle is correct.  

Edited by Billyhoyle

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I know I seemed to have killed discussion in this thread with my explanation of basic probability, but Flowrestling has posted some betting odds for Final X from a sketchy foreign website:  https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6212375-final-x-betting-odds-for-lincoln

 

Now, I don't recommend placing a bet with them given that it is against U.S. law and these gambling sites can always potentially be fraudulent (unless they are run by a western government).  With that said, I went ahead and calculated odds for the AND gates discussed above based on their odds of the individual matches. 

 

Burroughs AND Snyder winning:  -280 (based off of Burroughs being -500 and Snyder being -750).  

 

Imart AND Gadson winning:  +2600 (Based off of Imart being +350 and Gadson being +500)  

 

These calculations include the vig that they have already determined for the individual bets, and all I did was create a parlay by converting the odds to probability, multiplying, and then back to odds. 

 

Based off of these odds, what would you bet?

Edited by Billyhoyle

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