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Our Men’s FS world team

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My predictions:

 

57k Thomas Gilman : no medal

61k Nahshon Garrett  : no medal

65k Logan Steiber : no medal

70k James Green : bronze

74k Jordan Burroughs : gold

79k Kyle Dake : bronze

86k David Taylor : silver/gold

92k J'Den Cox : no medal

97k Kyle Snyder : silver 

125k Nick Gwizdowski: bronze

 

Its a great team, but won't beat Russia for team title, too weak at the lower weights. It will be a toss up between U.S. and AZE for 2nd. 

 

I'd love for Taylor to win gold but I am not sure he beats Yazdani or Geduev. 

 

I am most curious how Taylor does, IMO, he may be currently the best wrestler in the world and he may prove that at the worlds.

I love watching Taylor and have been a fan since his freshman year.  I have been rooting for him from the beginning....  but

 

Dake, Steiber, Cox, and Snyder all have more NCAA title than Taylor. 

Gwiz and Burroughs have the same number of NCAA titles as Taylor. 

Gwiz, Gilman and Steiber all have world medals

Green and Cox have multiple world medals.

Burroughs and Snyder have multiple gold medals.  

Taylor has also lost to Burroughs, Dake, and Cox multiple times

 

So while I respect everyones opinion, I am not sure the logic behind Taylor coming away with potential gold only to be accompanied by JB and with the exception of Snyder everyone else is Bronze or no medal.  Personally, in the spirit of giving Taylor credit where credit is due, I think he is probably the key to bringing home the team gold again this year. 

 

JB, Snyder, Dake, and Cox I think are our very likely medalists with Green maybe just behind them. One more medal and I think we lock in the team title.  I think Taylor is the key to that. Gwiz is right there with Taylor but when you have 2 other opponents who have separated themselves in the case of 125KG, it leave very little if any room for error.  

 

 

Team wise, I don't think AZE finishes top 4.  Russia, Iran, USA, and Cuba should land top 4.

 

I am really interested to see what happens with Russia.  While they have always been a wrestling power, as a country they seem to be struggling in about every sport compared to the past since they have been cracked down on for doping.  I am curious to see how this impacts even their elite wrestlers.  Even some of their best wrestlers may not have been nailed for PEDS, it makes me question how it affects their depth, and their ability to reload year after year.   It also makes me wonder if some of their elite wrestlers in the past, even recent past, may have not been clean at one time, but are now and is impacted by it.  I am sure this would all be kept pretty hush by Russia, and has that been the reason they have gone with some wrestlers over others.  Are some of the wrestlers that have kept out or replaced in some tournaments because they will come pop up in the testing?  I am not saying I think that is what has happened, but those are variables I do wonder about.  So I will be curious to see if Russia is the same Russia we are use to seeing.

 

I hope the 4 months comes quick!

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57k Thomas Gilman : no medal - loses to Japan in a second proof of Karma match.
61k Nahshon Garrett  : no medal, but looks good doing it.
65k Logan Steiber : no medal.  Not quite big enough to defend the leg attacks for which he is vulnerable.
70k James Green : silver - not quite ripe.
74k Jordan Burroughs : gold
79k Kyle Dake : no medal.  Loses both contacts and can't wrestle blind
86k David Taylor : bronze.  Not bad for a noob
92k J'Den Cox : gold.  He is looking good.
97k Kyle Snyder : gold. Sadulaev is just short of Snyder.
125k Nick Gwizdowski: silver, coming into his own now.

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57k Thomas Gilman : no medal - loses to Japan in a second proof of Karma match.

61k Nahshon Garrett  : no medal, but looks good doing it.

65k Logan Steiber : no medal.  Not quite big enough to defend the leg attacks for which he is vulnerable.

70k James Green : silver - not quite ripe.

74k Jordan Burroughs : gold

79k Kyle Dake : no medal.  Loses both contacts and can't wrestle blind

86k David Taylor : bronze.  Not bad for a noob

92k J'Den Cox : gold.  He is looking good.

97k Kyle Snyder : gold. Sadulaev is just short of Snyder.

125k Nick Gwizdowski: silver, coming into his own now.

 

Okay I am a huge dake fan...but that was funny.

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Very excited about this team and our chances to repeat as team champions. My initial prediction below..

 

 

57kg Thomas Gilman - returning silver medalist, liked what I saw against Fix, but unless he get's a favorable draw I'm not confident in his ability to repeat last year's results.

  • Odds to medal = 30%
  • Odds for Gold  = 5% 
  • My prediction = wins 2-3 matches, comes up just shy of another medal, 5th place finish.

 

61kg Nahshon Garrett - his scoring ability gives him a chance in any match, but his tendency to give up big points could have him losing just about any match, if the Nahshon from match three from last night shows up consistently I could see a medal, but wouldn't bet on it.

  • Odds to medal = 20%
  • Odds for Gold  = 5% (if he catches fire, who knows..)
  • My prediction = wins 1-2 matches, but DNP.

 

65kg Logan Stieber - former gold medalist, but hasn't shown much ability to perform consistently against top talent at 65kg, outside shot at medal, but probably my least optimistic pick for this year's team.

  • Odds to medal = 15%
  • Odds for Gold  = 2%
  • My prediction = wins 1 match, DNP.

 

70kg James Green  - returning silver medalist, has become one of our most consistent performers internationally, top three contender, decent shot at Gold if Chamizo is up at 74kg.

  • Odds to medal = 67%
  • Odds for Gold  = 20%
  • My prediction = repeat Silver finish.

 

74kg Jordan Burroughs - our most decorated athlete, returning Gold medalist, I like his chances to repeat.

  • Odds to medal = 80%
  • Odds for Gold  = 60%
  • My prediction = JB picks up his 6th world Gold.

 

79kg Kyle Dake - first time team member, but has been dominating the competition at 79kg outside of Yarygin finals, love his chance to bring home a medal, possibly Gold. 

  • Odds to medal = 70%
  • Odds for Gold  = 20%
  • My prediction = Kid Dynamite brings home Silver at his first worlds, more competitive w/ the Russian than last time, but still comes up short.

 

86kg David Taylor - similar to KD, I'm super psyched to see him finally compete on the world's biggest stage, think he has a shot against anybody, previous win over Yazdani makes him a serious contender for Gold.

  • Odds to medal = 67%
  • Odds for Gold  = 25%
  • My Prediction = I'll predict Bronze for Taylor in his first outing, think a more conditioned Yazdani avenges his loss in a close one.

 

92kg J'Den Cox - two time medalist, up a weight, definite contender and I like his chances for Gold with Sad at 97.

  • Odds to medal = 70%
  • Odds for Gold  = 30% 
  • My prediction = takes the next step, brings home his first Gold.

 

97kg Kyle Snyder - undefeated at worlds since emerging onto the senior circuit, but have a feeling Sad might pull it out this time.

  • Odds to medal = 90%
  • Odds for Gold  = 50%
  • My prediction = Kyle loses the re-match to Sadulaev in another classic w/ team title on the line, takes Silver.

 

125kg Nick Gwizdowski - returning bronze medalist, has been improving nicely, but with two horses at the top of this weight class, there's not much margin for error and it's tough to see him improving on last year's results.

  • Odds to medal = 60%
  • Odds for Gold  = 10%
  • My prediction = tough draw leads to a 5th place finish in this one.

 

My calculated medals = 5.69 (I predict we bring home six, but I give >50% odds for seven of our guys)

My calculated Golds = 2.27 (I predict we bring home two, but over half our guys have serious gold medal potential)

Team prediction = I believe these medal counts would have us finishing just behind Russia for runner-up as a team

Edited by Lubongo

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Dake is obviously a very good wrestler, but he's never before won a tournament over multiple world-elite wrestlers. He took 5th at the 2013 Golden Grand Prix and 2nd at the 2018 Yarygin. Until he actually wins a truly elite tournament, I have a hard time picking him to be a world gold medalist.

 

I think some fans put too much stock in NCAA accomplishments. The truth is that the world tournament is a completely different level.

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Agree that people put too much stock into NCAA accomplishments when projecting world level potential. But on the other hand Dake also has wins over very high level world class competition. The only thing that would surprise me with Dake and Taylor is if they lost to an opponent that we had never heard of. It could go either way.

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Dake is obviously a very good wrestler, but he's never before won a tournament over multiple world-elite wrestlers. He took 5th at the 2013 Golden Grand Prix and 2nd at the 2018 Yarygin. Until he actually wins a truly elite tournament, I have a hard time picking him to be a world gold medalist.

 

I think some fans put too much stock in NCAA accomplishments. The truth is that the world tournament is a completely different level.

 

It's a different sport though and I don't think folk/free can be compared exactly. It's like saying that the Dallas Cowboys are a better team than Manchester United, if you get my drift. If International wrestling included matwork I have no doubt Dake would be dominating internationally the same way he did in college. Hell, Zain might be a world champ already if folk rules were in place internationally. Granted, a world championship in anything would be a bump up from National Champion in prestige, but there is no world championship in folk wrestling (that I'm aware of at least). NCAA D1 wrestling is about as good as it gets for an old mat guy like me.

 

That said: good luck at Worlds, and hope our boys bring back the bacon.

Edited by TobusRex

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It's a different sport though and I don't think folk/free can be compared exactly. It's like saying that the Dallas Cowboys are a better team than Manchester United, if you get my drift. If International wrestling included matwork I have no doubt Dake would be dominating internationally the same way he did in college. Hell, Zain might be a world champ already if folk rules were in place internationally. Granted, a world championship in anything would be a bump up from National Champion in prestige, but there is no world championship in folk wrestling (that I'm aware of at least). NCAA D1 wrestling is about as good as it gets for an old mat guy like me.

 

That said: good luck at Worlds, and hope our boys bring back the bacon.

 

I think it's our own parochialism that tells us that our NCAA studs should be world studs. We're talking about a small pool of college-age part-time athletes versus a much larger pool of prime-age full-time athletes.

 

I will be cheering for Dake, but at this point he hasn't done anything to earn a world #1 ranking. 

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I think it's our own parochialism that tells us that our NCAA studs should be world studs. We're talking about a small pool of college-age part-time athletes versus a much larger pool of prime-age full-time athletes.

 

I will be cheering for Dake, but at this point he hasn't done anything to earn a world #1 ranking. 

I don't think there is as much of a difference between what you consider "college-age part-time athletes" and  "prime-age full-time athletes".  For example, the average age of gold medalists from the past two world championships was 24 years old.  And, where is Dake ranked #1 in the world?  I haven't seen such a ranking. 

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The Russians have some real beasts coming up from the U23 team....6 freestyle golds this month...crazy.

 

The Russian Nationals will be in Moscow Aug 1 - Aug 6, then the team will be decided.

 

I read Sadulaev just returned from another small Hadj in Mecca and joined the training camp. Sad seems extremely religious. 

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Well we have a vey good team, and I think we will have some great results from 70 on up. However, a lot of other teams will have great teams as well, so we will need everything to come together for success. Also if it comes down to SnyderMan vs whomever, for the Gold and the Team title, I'm putting my money on Capt. America.

As far as 57, 61, and 65, well we will just have to wait and see. I know some people are kind of down on Gilman, but with the same day weigh in's, this may have the same effect as we saw last year, which was a lot of the better known wrestlers up at 61. Also if Gilman, can stay on the gas pedal, he should do alright.

Garrett, has speed and speed can overcome a lot of deficiencies. However, it will be interested to see how he fares over the summer at some international meets. I think with a summer of training, I would not be surprised if he medaled come October.

65, even though Logiebear has a World title under his belt, I think he is the one wrestler with the longest road to climb. The first reason is the 65, is always so very tough, and the other is let's face it, Logiebear isn't exactly Mr. Consistency. Let's hope that everything goes right for all our guys and we have an even better result than we did last year.

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That was great last year when UWW separated Snyder and Sadulaev in the brackets to create the epic final. Story book ending.

 

Would be really cool if UWW separates Yazdani and Taylor as well this year.

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For a little perspective, here are the top ranked Russians:

 

57: #4 Uguev

61: #1 Rashidov, #2 Bogomoev #3 Musukaev

65: #2 Bekbulatov #4 Kuular

70: #1 Ramonov #2 Kurbanaliev #5 Zherbaev

74: #4 Tsabolov

79: #1 Gadzhimagomedov

86: #3 Naifonov #4 Valiev #5 Kurugliev

92: #5 Urishev

97: #2 Sadulaev #3 Baitsaev #5 Magomedov

125: #3 Makhov

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We do have a chance at a medal at all 10 weights, but some are a pretty small chance. I would be shocked if we had 10 medals, but I would also be shocked if we only had 3-4 medals. I think we have 7 guys that are likely to medal (last 7 weights). I feel like it would be hard for all 7 of them to wrestle well enough to medal, so I am guessing we will walk away with 6. Although the one of the three I am predicting to finish without a medal could always over perform and get us back up to 7. It's pretty crazy to think that of the 3 that I (and most others) are picking to not medal, we have a returning Gold and silver medalist! If we do get to 7 medals, I would think that should win us another team title. Excited to see how it plays out! 

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For a little perspective, here are the top ranked Russians:

 

57: #4 Uguev

61: #1 Rashidov, #2 Bogomoev #3 Musukaev

65: #2 Bekbulatov #4 Kuular

70: #1 Ramonov #2 Kurbanaliev #5 Zherbaev

74: #4 Tsabolov

79: #1 Gadzhimagomedov

86: #3 Naifonov #4 Valiev #5 Kurugliev

92: #5 Urishev

97: #2 Sadulaev #3 Baitsaev #5 Magomedov

125: #3 Makhov

 

The rankings are totally insane. I just looked at the UWW site and they had Kyle Snyder ranked #18, and Gadsen was ranked #5! Taylor was ranked #2, and Gwiz, shockingly, #1. Somehow Steiber was #6.

Edited by TobusRex

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I agree that we're not likely to get 10 medals.  In fact, I think 6 is about my over under.  That's a ton!  I know we are going to do battle in a sport that has unbelievable competition at the top.  I just believe that our stock has risen on the world stage.  Our Juniors are better, our guys right out of college are better, the demise of doping in this great sport probably weighs in somewhere.  All of that is important, but the leadership and experience and hunger in this group is truly special.  I think we are just flat out better, and on the brink of becoming THE Team in World Freestyle Wrestling.  These guys are all tougher than hell.  A little concern on just how long we can have the magical JB?  Personally, I want to see him go out as a Champion, and I just don't know how many more of those are going to be physically possible.

Edited by Peso

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That was great last year when UWW separated Snyder and Sadulaev in the brackets to create the epic final. Story book ending.

 

Would be really cool if UWW separates Yazdani and Taylor as well this year.

Snyder and Sadulaev were separated because they were both multiple time World Champions and defending Olympic Champs. 

 

As much as I like David Taylor, I doubt he will get any preferential treatment from UWW without a single World medal on his resume. 

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I am not sure Makhov will wrestle, he has health problems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians try out 2 new guys on the team. 

 

Also, a lot depends on the draw. It'd suck to get Taylor / Yazdani or Burroughs / Chamizo in rd 2.

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I don't think there is as much of a difference between what you consider "college-age part-time athletes" and  "prime-age full-time athletes".  For example, the average age of gold medalists from the past two world championships was 24 years old.  And, where is Dake ranked #1 in the world?  I haven't seen such a ranking. 

 

Even if you believe that there isn't "much of a difference" between a bracket full of NCAA qualifiers and a bracket full of senior-level national champions, how do you get around the fact that the world championships draw on a much larger pool of competitors?

 

Also, I didn't say Dake was ranked #1 in the world.  All I meant to say is he's never done anything to be considered #1 in the world.

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The rankings are totally insane. I just looked at the UWW site and they had Kyle Snyder ranked #18, and Gadsen was ranked #5! Taylor was ranked #2, and Gwiz, shockingly, #1. Somehow Steiber was #6.

It is purely based on a points system. You get points for specific tournaments. It is not meant to be a reflection of who is the best wrestler.

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Snyder and Sadulaev were separated because they were both multiple time World Champions and defending Olympic Champs. 

 

As much as I like David Taylor, I doubt he will get any preferential treatment from UWW without a single World medal on his resume.

 

He attended PENN STATE!

 

You don't think that will have the matchmakers scared of making a mistake?

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