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spladle08

133 Next Year

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Well said

 

Yes I can now see I was out of bounds when I asked why you cited that he would crush the top 4 returning guys + suriano in folk.

 

I agree. the top guys get trap armed in folk and it's very easy to hit without locking your hands and to hold a guy there for the actual count you need to score points.

 

Sifting through my limited wrestling knowledge, I've actually never seen a solid neutral wrestler prosper in freestyle and it not translate to folk.

 

I now see that you said the words "Gut feeling" before you told me specifically how much better he was than the rest of the weight even going as far as saying his top skills rival Lee and he would tech the returning 3rd place finisher who majored his highly touted teammate.

 

I am wrong and simply shouldn't have said anything. Thank you for the education .

 

 

 

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Edited by spladle08

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And dont read that as I dont think he can beat anybody it's just a completely different style of wrestling, matches are tighter and points are harder to come by I'm from Oklahoma and I hope he beats Lee in the national finals but at this point we have super limited data.

 

It's like everyone thinks Lee is his only competition at either weight. Again being a huge homer I wouldn't even favor him by 3 over Sebastian Rivera

 

 

But we will see in a few months

 

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Sifting through my limited wrestling knowledge, I've actually never seen a solid neutral wrestler prosper in freestyle and it not translate to folk.

 

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There are plenty of examples. Ali Naser and Jamal Kelly come to mind, but there are much better examples

 

I know I tend to overvalue freestyle performance myself on future folk results

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There are plenty of examples. Ali Naser and Jamal Kelly come to mind, but there are much better examples

 

I know I tend to overvalue freestyle performance myself on future folk results

Oh I'm fully aware there are plenty of results... I didnt believe a word in that post but I'm done with the argument

 

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Well said

 

Yes I can now see I was out of bounds when I asked why you cited that he would crush the top 4 returning guys + suriano in folk.

 

I agree. the top guys get trap armed in folk and it's very easy to hit without locking your hands and to hold a guy there for the actual count you need to score points.

 

Sifting through my limited wrestling knowledge, I've actually never seen a solid neutral wrestler prosper in freestyle and it not translate to folk.

 

I now see that you said the words "Gut feeling" before you told me specifically how much better he was than the rest of the weight even going as far as saying his top skills rival Lee and he would tech the returning 3rd place finisher who majored his highly touted teammate.

 

I am wrong and simply shouldn't have said anything. Thank you for the education .

 

 

 

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You're welcome!  

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Yeah 2 threads, both asking why he is shoe-in for the finals at 133 and nobody has given me a reason.

You have said "predicting future results on margin of victory is foolish" to which I have to ask...

What should I be basing them on, when all we have of his college career is that Snapshot?

I'd take margin of victory vs freestyle results anyday.

From those wins we can see he wrestled low scoring matches against 2 ~top 10 guys .

I guess it would be reasonable to say against top 4 guys at either weight we dont expect his dominance to go up?

 

I'll pose the question as basic as possible

"What makes anyone think Daton Fix has a good shot at the 133 finals based on his 2017/18 results" ?????

 

 

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It doesn't matter how many dumb statements about freestyle results you are trying to dispute, close wins over good wrestlers are not indicators of future losses against better wrestlers.  

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It doesn't matter how many dumb statements about freestyle results you are trying to dispute, close wins over good wrestlers are not indicators of future losses against better wrestlers.  

"You have said "predicting future results on margin of victory is foolish" to which I have to ask...

What should I be basing them on, when all we have of his college career is that Snapshot?

I'd take margin of victory vs freestyle results anyday.

 

I'll pose the question as basic as possible

"What makes anyone think Daton Fix has a good shot at the 133 finals based on his 2017/18 results" ????? "

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"You have said "predicting future results on margin of victory is foolish" to which I have to ask...

What should I be basing them on, when all we have of his college career is that Snapshot?

I'd take margin of victory vs freestyle results anyday.

 

I'll pose the question as basic as possible

"What makes anyone think Daton Fix has a good shot at the 133 finals based on his 2017/18 results" ????? "

Beating a guy H2H in a FS match absolutely says more about a future folkstyle result than two guys both beating a 3rd guy by different amounts in folkstyle.  

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Beating a guy H2H in a FS match absolutely says more about a future folkstyle result than two guys both beating a 3rd guy by different amounts in folkstyle

:) Alright I'm done with it, if you feel like it review u23's from any year and see some great folk wrestlers, All Americans even, get handled by guys who can't make their own team. If not no worries. Here's last years https://www.flowrestling.org/results/6208523-2018-uww-cadet-and-u23-world-team-trial-qualifier/24572

 

but I made the thread to talk about how savage the weight would be so hopefully it drifts back to that.

*Last I'm arguing anything about Fix.

Edited by spladle08

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Fine fine fine fine fine... I'll concede.  I'll concede that I have NO facts to support my "gut feeling".  Oh what a world, what a world.  Your incessant and OCD need to have facts is blindly ignoring the fact that I was simply sharing a gut opinion.  You know... something that is done DAILY by nearly EVERYONE on this forum.  

 

Now... if you can must the self-control... back away from the fact-checking needs that you have... and realize... my post that triggered you was a "gut feeling".  The only thing I can say to help you is that I was basing my gut feeling on not only his few matches his RS year, but also, how he has looked, ON HIS FEET, in freestyle.  The analog, whether anyone wants to believe it or not (and I don't really care) is Kyle Snyder.  If Fix can stay on his feet, his in a good position to defeat everyone at 133.  A corollary to this is that he SHOULD be pretty decent on top.  That trapped arm can be a nasty tilt in Folk.

 

So... you have Fix storming to an NCAA title via trap arm gut? 

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:) Alright I'm done with it, if you feel like it review u23's from any year and see some great folk wrestlers, All Americans even, get handled by guys who can't make their own team. If not no worries. Here's last years https://www.flowrestling.org/results/6208523-2018-uww-cadet-and-u23-world-team-trial-qualifier/24572

 

but I made the thread to talk about how savage the weight would be so hopefully it drifts back to that.

*Last I'm arguing anything about Fix.

57 AA Mueller won it over a bunch of non-AAs.  

61 Arujau won it.  Picc is the only AA in the weight and he lost to Arujau in the semis.  I'd 100% expect Arujau to beat Picc this year if they go at 133.

65 McKee won it over Brock.  Brock has beaten McKee repeatedly in Folk so this is an example of the result not playing out.  I do think weight is a big part of that as Brock always beat McKee at 133.  Jack got beat in the semis so that's another example of results being different than Folk.  

70 Hidlay won it.  Deakin was 2nd and Berger was a semis guy.  That's all like Folk.  

74 Shields is the only AA and he got beat, but again up a whole weight from his folk success.

79 McFadden and Lewis are both Folk studs

86 Martin and Rogers are both folk studs.

97 Moore is the only guy with Folk credentials and he killed everyone

125 Hughes beat Hemida in folk and that was reversed here.

 

So Jack got beat and Hughes and Hemida flipped (though both are folk AAs).  Jack and Hughes are both killers on top in Folk.  Additionally Brock and Shields got beat while up in weight.  So a few matches were reversed out of about 200, but in almost every case the folkstyle studs were also freestyle studs.  Guys who won this tournament would be expected to win it in Folk at 7 out of 9 weights.  The overall results were at least that percentage but let's just say 7 out of 9.  

 

I am quite certain that if you were to compare 'A' beats 'C' 2-1 and 'B' beats 'C' 4-1 you wouldn't have 'B' beats 'A' 7 out of 9 times.  

 

A Freestyle H2H is absolutely a better predictor of Folk results than a common opponent margin of victory.  

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57 AA Mueller won it over a bunch of non-AAs.

61 Arujau won it. Picc is the only AA in the weight and he lost to Arujau in the semis. I'd 100% expect Arujau to beat Picc this year if they go at 133.

65 McKee won it over Brock. Brock has beaten McKee repeatedly in Folk so this is an example of the result not playing out. I do think weight is a big part of that as Brock always beat McKee at 133. Jack got beat in the semis so that's another example of results being different than Folk.

70 Hidlay won it. Deakin was 2nd and Berger was a semis guy. That's all like Folk.

74 Shields is the only AA and he got beat, but again up a whole weight from his folk success.

79 McFadden and Lewis are both Folk studs

86 Martin and Rogers are both folk studs.

97 Moore is the only guy with Folk credentials and he killed everyone

125 Hughes beat Hemida in folk and that was reversed here.

 

So Jack got beat and Hughes and Hemida flipped (though both are folk AAs). Jack and Hughes are both killers on top in Folk. Additionally Brock and Shields got beat while up in weight. So a few matches were reversed out of about 200, but in almost every case the folkstyle studs were also freestyle studs. Guys who won this tournament would be expected to win it in Folk at 7 out of 9 weights. The overall results were at least that percentage but let's just say 7 out of 9.

 

I am quite certain that if you were to compare 'A' beats 'C' 2-1 and 'B' beats 'C' 4-1 you wouldn't have 'B' beats 'A' 7 out of 9 times.

 

A Freestyle H2H is absolutely a better predictor of Folk results than a common opponent margin of victory.

Cool

 

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If OSU thinks they have a chance to win a title, which they arguably do (my money is on PSU), their best scenario is Picc at 125 and Fix at 133. The logic being, I don't think Picc has much of a chance AA'ing in the minefield of 133 but could do rather well at 125. Meanwhile Fix may not win 133, but I think most people think he can place high. Two high placing AA's is better than one.

 

My money is on Gross not repeating.

 

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If OSU thinks they have a chance to win a title, which they arguably do (my money is on PSU), their best scenario is Picc at 125 and Fix at 133. The logic being, I don't think Picc has much of a chance AA'ing in the minefield of 133 but could do rather well at 125. Meanwhile Fix may not win 133, but I think most people think he can place high. Two high placing AA's is better than one.

 

My money is on Gross not repeating.

 

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Tough spot, dont know if Picc could put on a little mass in the offseason but I agree he seems more equipped for 125. wish we knew more about the Brock situation, but we don't.

 

My ideal lineup goes

FIX-BRock-Gfeller-Lewallen-Martinez-Rogers-Jo Smith-Jacobe Smith-Weigel-White

 

84 may be too big for Jacobe and who knows with Wittlake coming in... guess we will see.

 

I'D like to see 125-141 shake out like that though but a lineup with Nicky P in it, wont hurt my feelings either

 

Micic is my front-runner here,

 

then probably Suriano, Gross, Wilson, Pletcher, Lizak, Brock (until proven otherwise),.... and the a free for all.

 

 

 

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Edited by spladle08

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Not questioning the move, but why is suriano moving up? My motivation for asking is that he  doesn't get tired...which is what I usually look for in terms of high level, high discipline, guys moving up. 

 

My best guess is that he only cut weight this year... left no room for technical development. This is a pretty good explanation considering he left the best room in the country for development....

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Not questioning the move, but why is suriano moving up? My motivation for asking is that he doesn't get tired...which is what I usually look for in terms of high level, high discipline, guys moving up.

 

My best guess is that he only cut weight this year... left no room for technical development. This is a pretty good explanation considering he left the best room in the country for development....

I dunno how (I don't follow Suriano in any capacity), but between flo, and chamizo and whatever other wrestling outlets I have on social media, he keeps popping up and one thing is for sure, he is super proud of that body. Flexing Abs and Biceps no matter the occasion.

That said, I think he wanted to get bigger. I dont think he is "running from Lee", just think he is really into the weights and with their 33 slot graduated it doesn't necessarily hurt the team, with him bumping up ( I'll admit I dont know the depth chart aside from him at either weight but I'll assume they dont have a stud 133 hes bumping out of the lineup. )

 

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FWIW, Arujau teched Picc at U23 this summer in about a minute and a half.  Not sure if that says more about Arujau or Picc, or both.  Or just freestyle.

 

I've seen too many FS studs get hammered in folkstyle matches. Not saying Arujau won't beat Picc in folk, just saying that FS isn't a great predictor of success in folk. All FS can show is which wrestler is better in neutral.

 

Also FS "techs" are ridiculous, there is no comparison between that and a tech in folk. A FS tech could be due to one mistake, thanks to that stupid ass gator roll or whatever it's called, but a tech in folk is a thorough beatdown.

Edited by TobusRex

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I dunno how (I don't follow Suriano in any capacity), but between flo, and chamizo and whatever other wrestling outlets I have on social media, he keeps popping up and one thing is for sure, he is super proud of that body. Flexing Abs and Biceps no matter the occasion.

That said, I think he wanted to get bigger. I dont think he is "running from Lee", just think he is really into the weights and with their 33 slot graduated it doesn't necessarily hurt the team, with him bumping up ( I'll admit I dont know the depth chart aside from him at either weight but I'll assume they dont have a stud 133 hes bumping out of the lineup. )

 

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I think he's running from Lee. And with good reason.

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That NCAA match looked identical to the 2nd period of when they wrestled in the dual.  When Lizak gets on top of Picc it's over.  Picc is good in neutral, very good on top, and awful on bottom.  OSU has no RTC so to speak and no lightweight coach on staff, and all of their lightweights looked like they don't get coached at all.  Tons of talent and no development last year.  

 

Pretty crazy, huh? I'm not sure if I've ever seen a guy so good on top and so bad on bottom.

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97 Moore is the only guy with Folk credentials and he killed everyone

 

 

Not sure what anyone's point is by now, but Moore only beat Honis 11-8 (and it was a very tight match), and Honis didn't even make his own team (thanks, Darmstadt!).

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I've seen too many FS studs get hammered in folkstyle matches. Not saying Arujau won't beat Picc in folk, just saying that FS isn't a great predictor of success in folk. All FS can show is which wrestler is better in neutral.

 

Also FS "techs" are ridiculous, there is no comparison between that and a tech in folk. A FS tech could be due to one mistake, thanks to that stupid ass gator roll or whatever it's called, but a tech in folk is a thorough beatdown.

 

It was 2015, but Arujau also beat Fix in folk (their only meeting?).

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Lizak minus the brutal weight cut will be fun to watch. High expectations.

 

Is it confirmed that Tariq will be at 133 again? I thought someone commented during NCAAs last season that it was a really steep cut.

Not confirmed, however that is what they are trying.

 

Fausz has agreed to try and make 125 again. If he does that, Tariq is staying at 133. If not, Tariq moves up.

 

I got that info from a good source

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Thanks! Does anyone know if Jrent wants to or will wrestle 133? I was wondering if he could make weight. This is assuming he doesn't RS this season, I don't know what the situation is with him and ADS, Murin, Snapple and maybe Turk.

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