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steamboat_charlie v2

World Championship Seeds and Team Race Implications

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Now that seeds are official, I thought this topic deserves it's own thread.  While I've been very bearish about our chances at repeating as Champs, given where seeds came out I now think there's at least a  clear road map for the US to win the whole thing, of course assuming we perform well.  

For the sake of argument here, I'm only comparing us to Russia as IMO they are the prohibitive favorite. 

57kg
Gilman and Uguev will be split.  Nothing really interesting here, we just need Uguev to choke again and Gilman to pull out a medal.  Decent chance of this actually happening.  

61kg
Given Colon's #4 seed, he never runs into Rashidov (#2) unless he makes a miracle run to the final.  With his seed, Colon at least has a sneaky back door shot at medaling.

65kg
Nothing to see here.  Just hope Logan avoids Bekbulatov's quarter and catches heat.  I expect Bekbulatov to be in the final.  If it's Chakaev here, that's good for us. 

70kg
See: 65kg.  We want to avoid Gazimagomedov here. 

74kg
With Burroughs, Sidakov/Tsabalov, and Demirtas all unseeded, this bracket could turn into a real mess.  If Sidakov runs into Chamizo or Abdurakhmonov early, hope Burroughs is on their side waiting in the semis.  

79kg
Dake (#4) will be on the same half as Gadzhimagomedov (#1).  This is a match we probably need if we're going to win it all.  As we know though, Gadzhi handed Dake his only loss of the past year+, and completely stifled Dake's offense.  Hopefully Kyle can use those new age tech glasses he's wearing to compute a new strategy for this matchup.

86kg
Taylor seeded 2nd.  I wish it was Naifonov... guy is probably still trying to figure out what the @#$! happened to him last time around against Taylor.  Not that I'm worried about Kurugliev, but if it was Naifonov that would guarantee a semifinal matchup. This one could also get weird with Yazdani and Kurugliev both unseeded.  Might need some luck with the brackets here... actually, what am I even saying? David Morris Taylor is going to have his opponents thinking they took some actual D.M.T., as they'll feel like they're hallucinated watching David's "intensely colored, rapidly moving display of visual images," except in this case in the form of relentless leg attacks.  

92kg
Not feeling great about this weight.  There's a good chance Russia wins 92kg and we come out empty-handed.  That being said, Cox has never not medaled, therefore it remains unknown if him not medaling is even possible based on the scientific laws that govern the known universe.  In any case, we're unseeded, they're unseeded, the whole weight class is strange.  If Sadulaev wasn't so immensely selfish in his quest to avenge last year's loss, Russia would have already had this weight in the bag. 

97kg
We're unseeded, they're unseeded.  Best case scenario we're on the opposite side of Sadulaev and Alborov.  We should root for Sadulaev to lose before he hits Snyder but that would rob us of the continuation of a potential all-time series. Let's just hope we get a frozen envelope situation here and Snyder/Sadualaev just so "happen" to land on opposite sides of the bracket.  

125kg
Gwiz is the #1 seed.  As you all know, the #1 seed is reserved for the best wrestler in the bracket.  Ipso facto... alright maybe not.  This weight class is potentially a huge separator in the team race.  Is Russia sending Baitsaev?  He's had some amazing results up at heavy, but also some bad losses.  X factor in this bracket is Akgul.  Imagine earning the #1 seed only to have to line up against that freak in round 1.  Smurfing is frowned upon on the internet, and should also be frowned upon on the mat (or UWW could come up with seeding criteria that isn't stupid).  

 

And with that, after about 9 months of claiming otherwise, I have officially convinced my dumb brain that we're winning the whole thing.  Back 2 back.  Rock flag and eagle baby.  

giphy.gif

 

Edited by steamboat_charlie v2

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So much can go wrong here. 

 

Dake being seeded on the same side as the only guy who will be a favorite over him. It would be better if he wasn’t seeded. Even if Dake wins a bronze here, that hurts us a lot. 

 

Taylor better not hit Yazdani before the finals. That would be so dumb of UWW. That is a match you can hype. 

 

I think Gilman beats Uguev if that match happens. 

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14 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

So much can go wrong here. 

 

Dake being seeded on the same side as the only guy who will be a favorite over him. It would be better if he wasn’t seeded. Even if Dake wins a bronze here, that hurts us a lot. 

 

Taylor better not hit Yazdani before the finals. That would be so dumb of UWW. That is a match you can hype. 

 

I think Gilman beats Uguev if that match happens. 

 

I've got us winning like 7 medals.  Hell I almost convinced myself earlier that Colon is making the finals... had to splash some water on my face and back away from that take.  For us to win it's crucial that Russia doesn't medal at 57, 74, and 125. 

After that, we need a little luck.  

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Now that seeds are official, I thought this topic deserves it's own thread.  While I've been very bearish about our chances at repeating as Champs, given where seeds came out I now think there's at least a  clear road map for the US to win the whole thing, of course assuming we perform well.  
For the sake of argument here, I'm only comparing us to Russia as IMO they are the prohibitive favorite. 
57kg
Gilman and Uguev will be split.  Nothing really interesting here, we just need Uguev to choke again and Gilman to pull out a medal.  Decent chance of this actually happening.  
61kg
Given Colon's #4 seed, he never runs into Rashidov (#2) unless he makes a miracle run to the final.  With his seed, Colon at least has a sneaky back door shot at medaling.
65kg
Nothing to see here.  Just hope Logan avoids Bekbulatov's quarter and catches heat.  I expect Bekbulatov to be in the final.  If it's Chakaev here, that's good for us. 
70kg
See: 65kg.  We want to avoid Gazimagomedov here. 
74kg
With Burroughs, Sidakov/Tsabalov, and Demirtas all unseeded, this bracket could turn into a real mess.  If Sidakov runs into Chamizo or Abdurakhmonov early, hope Burroughs is on their side waiting in the semis.  
79kg
Dake (#4) will be on the same half as Gadzhimagomedov (#1).  This is a match we probably need if we're going to win it all.  As we know though, Gadzhi handed Dake his only loss of the past year+, and completely stifled Dake's offense.  Hopefully Kyle can use those new age tech glasses he's wearing to compute a new strategy for this matchup.
86kg
Taylor seeded 2nd.  I wish it was Naifonov... guy is probably still trying to figure out what the @#$! happened to him last time around against Taylor.  Not that I'm worried about Kurugliev, but if it was Naifonov that would guarantee a semifinal matchup. This one could also get weird with Yazdani and Kurugliev both unseeded.  Might need some luck with the brackets here... actually, what am I even saying? David Morris Taylor is going to have his opponents thinking they took some actual D.M.T., as they'll feel like they're hallucinated watching David's "intensely colored, rapidly moving display of visual images," except in this case in the form of relentless leg attacks.  
92kg
Not feeling great about this weight.  There's a good chance Russia wins 92kg and we come out empty-handed.  That being said, Cox has never not medaled, therefore it remains unknown if him not medaling is even possible based on the scientific laws that govern the known universe.  In any case, we're unseeded, they're unseeded, the whole weight class is strange.  If Sadulaev wasn't so immensely selfish in his quest to avenge last year's loss, Russia would have already had this weight in the bag. 
97kg
We're unseeded, they're unseeded.  Best case scenario we're on the opposite side of Sadulaev and Alborov.  We should root for Sadulaev to lose before he hits Snyder but that would rob us of the continuation of a potential all-time series. Let's just hope we get a frozen envelope situation here and Snyder/Sadualaev just so "happen" to land on opposite sides of the bracket.  
125kg
Gwiz is the #1 seed.  As you all know, the #1 seed is reserved for the best wrestler in the bracket.  Ipso facto... alright maybe not.  This weight class is potentially a huge separator in the team race.  Is Russia sending Baitsaev?  He's had some amazing results up at heavy, but also some bad losses.  X factor in this bracket is Akgul.  Imagine earning the #1 seed only to have to line up against that freak in round 1.  Smurfing is frowned upon on the internet, and should also be frowned upon on the mat (or UWW could come up with seeding criteria that isn't stupid).  
 
And with that, after about 9 months of claiming otherwise, I have officially convinced my dumb brain that we're winning the whole thing.  Back 2 back.  Rock flag and eagle baby.  
giphy.gif
 
Nice write up on Taylor.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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Charlie,

Thanks for a great post.  The unreliable seeding coupled with this team scoring system creates some funky possibilities.  Basically if the top two competitiors hit prior to the finals, the match is more valuable from a team scoring standpoint than if they hit in the final.  This is an interesting juxtaposition against NCAA style scoring where 3rd place finishers have the opportunity to outscore the runner up (and maybe on rare occasions the champion).

As a result, I don’t think we want our guy and the Russian opposite each other. If they hit in the semis or prior, it is likely a 10 point match with the winner taking 1st for 25 points and the loser likely taking 3rd for 15 points.  If they face off in the finals it will be 25-20 for a net 5 point advantage.  If we have to bet on a guy for a win for the team, I would be most comfortable placing the biggest bet on our best guy.  Give me Snyder and Sadulaev on the same side.  We are guaranteed the match and we get maximum reward for a win.

Back to another idiosyncrasy of this system.  Let’s say our returning champion draws and defeats the Russian number two in the world in the first round.  In a vacuum, meaning we don’t need the full 25 points for first to hold off the team sitting in 3rd, we would net more points over Russia by bagging the semi final match.  Our guy could go on to take 3rd (15 points) but leave the Russian frozen out of the backdraw netting the bad guys zero points.  Not that I see this happening but this hypothetical does demonstrate a flaw in the current system.  

 

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9 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

 

86kg
Taylor seeded 2nd.  I wish it was Naifonov... guy is probably still trying to figure out what the @#$! happened to him last time around against Taylor.  Not that I'm worried about Kurugliev, but if it was Naifonov that would guarantee a semifinal matchup. This one could also get weird with Yazdani and Kurugliev both unseeded.  Might need some luck with the brackets here... actually, what am I even saying? David Morris Taylor is going to have his opponents thinking they took some actual D.M.T., as they'll feel like they're hallucinated watching David's "intensely colored, rapidly moving display of visual images," except in this case in the form of relentless leg attacks.  

97kg
We're unseeded, they're unseeded.  Best case scenario we're on the opposite side of Sadulaev and Alborov.  We should root for Sadulaev to lose before he hits Snyder but that would rob us of the continuation of a potential all-time series. Let's just hope we get a frozen envelope situation here and Snyder/Sadualaev just so "happen" to land on opposite sides of the bracket.  

 

 

You were spitting fire here, bro. 

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Well, now that these seeds or in some cases, lack there of, have been announced, I am concerned about our individuals being able to make deep runs into these landmine laiden and possibly lopsided weight classes. I believe this is going to be an absolute dog fight, and I worry about the Metcalf effect, (Metcalf went to the World's a few years ago, and he wrestled his Iranian opponent Tahgavi, I think that was his name, and Metcalf threw everything he had at Tahgavi. Unfortunately Brent lost, and Tahgavi was so pooped in his next match he couldn't do anything and was put out in the next round, thus also ending Brent's tourney as well). I worry that similar things could happen to some of our guy this time as well. Unfortunately, I think a lot will depend on the draw(s), (as per usual), our guys get. However, the optomist in me, thinks that if I our guys are able to start strong and win their early matches, they will be tough to get rid of, and despite the aforementioned, I do believe most of our guys will do well and should medal. Also I will venture to say that if we see Kyle in the finals, I would bet on him even if his opponent was the Incredible Hulk. Hopefully everything goes our way and our guys will get in a position to medal or win a title, and if so, the team title will take care of itself, and if so, it will be icing on the cake of a great World Championships. 

Edited by de4856
Grammar

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On 10/4/2018 at 11:52 AM, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

79kg
Dake (#4) will be on the same half as Gadzhimagomedov (#1).  This is a match we probably need if we're going to win it all.  As we know though, Gadzhi handed Dake his only loss of the past year+, and completely stifled Dake's offense.  Hopefully Kyle can use those new age tech glasses he's wearing to compute a new strategy for this matchup.

86kg
Taylor seeded 2nd.  I wish it was Naifonov... guy is probably still trying to figure out what the @#$! happened to him last time around against Taylor.  Not that I'm worried about Kurugliev, but if it was Naifonov that would guarantee a semifinal matchup. This one could also get weird with Yazdani and Kurugliev both unseeded.  Might need some luck with the brackets here... actually, what am I even saying? David Morris Taylor is going to have his opponents thinking they took some actual D.M.T., as they'll feel like they're hallucinated watching David's "intensely colored, rapidly moving display of visual images," except in this case in the form of relentless leg attacks.  

97kg
We're unseeded, they're unseeded.  Best case scenario we're on the opposite side of Sadulaev and Alborov.  We should root for Sadulaev to lose before he hits Snyder but that would rob us of the continuation of a potential all-time series. Let's just hope we get a frozen envelope situation here and Snyder/Sadualaev just so "happen" to land on opposite sides of the bracket.  

In 79kg - I love Kyle and his style. I always rooted for Kyle when he wrestled JB. I think 2018 is Kyle's year on world stage, he was excellent in world cup and I think he will win gold in this world championships.  I agree Gadzhi is on the way to gold, but i think Kyle will win this time. Watch out for Kyle's front headlock throw !!

In 86kg - want to see Taylor vs Yazdani in finals, going to be fun. Somehow i fee Taylor will fall short for gold in finals with Yazdani. But you never know when Taylor hits his unconventional pins..check this pin he did on Faith Erdin ( TUR)  in Ivan Yariguin this year  

 

In 97Kg -  waiting for Sadulaev vs Snyder   Match-2.  I hope they will have 97kg finals as the final match of world championships ( like they did in 2017).  I think Sadulave will win this time.

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