Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Housebuye

Facts about junior world medalists in college

Recommended Posts

oing into NCAAs, here is a recap of what we "should" see happen. This isn't scientific by any means and if you use this as a prediction engine that would be dumb, but I enjoy messing around with the data and wanted to share.

All 12 qualified for NCAAs, 10/12 are seeded to AA, 8/12 are seeded top 3. It appears that junior world medals are an excellent predictor of AAing in college if the seeds hold.

 

Junior World Freestyle Medalists who used eligibility this year, with their seed, record, and a prediction loosely based on the data:

#8 Mekhi Lewis (GOLD) 
23-2
Expectation: NCAA title at some point in college (75%), 82% chance he AAs this season (11 seasons completed by junior world gold, 9 ended in AAs) 
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49338/lewis-mekhi/profile

#20 Zach Elam (SILVER) 
22-9
Expectation: 85% chance of AAing twice over the course of his career, 92% chance of AAing once over the course of his career, if we remove Pat Downey, Silver Medalists AA 76% of the seasons they wrestle. Removing Mitch Mckee and Ryan Deakin (0-3) bumps that to 93% of seasons. 50% of the time a junior world silver medalist wrestles at NCAAs, they win a title. 
Seems unlikely given his season and the weight class, plus the recent lack of AAs from junior world silvers, but still interesting. Here is the complete list of US Junior world silvers. It is full of super talents: Logan Stieber, Pat Downey, Alex Deringer, Joey McKenna, Zahid Valencia, Ryan Deakin, Mitch McKee, Zach Elam (soon Aaron Brooks, Greg Kerklevit)
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/51612/elam-zach/profile

#1 Daton Fix (Gold)
31-1
Expectation: NCAA title at some point in college (75%), 82% chance he AAs this season (11 seasons completed by junior world gold, 9 ended in AAs) 
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49263/fix-daton/profile

#12 Brady Berge (Bronze)
18-3
Expectation: 69% chance of AAing three times, 85% chance of AAing twice over the course of his career, 92% chance of AAing once over the course of his career
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49277/berge-brady/profile

#7 Mitch McKee
20-5
Expectation: 85% chance of AAing twice over the course of his career, 92% chance of AAing once over the course of his career, if we remove Pat Downey, Silver Medalists AA 76% of the seasons they wrestle. 50% of the time a junior world silver medalist wrestles at NCAAs, they win a title. McKee is seeded to AA for the first time. He is statistically the worst performing junior world silver medalist at NCAAs ever but if he AAs he will at worst be tied (Downey). He has made R12 twice.
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45139/mckee-mitch/profile

#3 Ryan Deakin
28-4
Expectation: 85% chance of AAing twice over the course of his career, 92% chance of AAing once over the course of his career, if we remove Pat Downey, Silver Medalists AA 76% of the seasons they wrestle. 50% of the time a junior world silver medalist wrestles at NCAAs, they win a title. Deakin is seeded to AA for the second time, but hasn't AAd yet.
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44716/deakin-ryan/profile

#1 Mark Hall
26-0
Expectation:100% chance he AAs this season (every junior world gold has AAd every season after their first AA)
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49338/lewis-mekhi/profile

#3 Zahid Valencia
26-2
Expectation: 85% chance of AAing twice over the course of his career, 100% of the time a Junior world silver wins a title they don't ever not win the title (Ringer, Stieber) but I'm not suggesting he is 100% to win. 
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39501/valencia-zahid/profile

#2 Kollin Moore
19-2
Expectation: 100% to AA (no medalist has ever AAd and then not AAd in a later season...that will definitely change at some point)
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39638/moore-kollin/profile

#3 Gable Steveson
23-2
Expectation: NCAA title at some point in college (75%), 82% chance he AAs this season (11 seasons completed by junior world gold, 9 ended in AAs) , all 3 junior world golds who wrestled their true freshman years made the NCAA finals (Snyder, Lee, Hall).
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/50624/steveson-gable/profile

#3 Spencer Lee
28-3
Expectation:100% chance he AAs this season (every junior world gold has AAd every season after their first AA), 
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49146/lee-spencer/profile

#2 Stevan Micic
14-0
Expectation: 100% to AA (no medalist has ever AAd and then not AAd in a later season...that will definitely change at some point), 50% of junior world bronze guys have won an NCAA title, and only 1 that made a final didn't win at least 1 title.
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20223/micic-stevan/profile

 

Edited by Housebuye

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I know that this is a college forum, but I wonder what the predictor is for a wrestler who wins a Junior World medal/title, to go on to win a Senior World/Olympic medal/title. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UPDATE before semis and R12

12/13 medalists are still alive (I left Joey McKenna off my list above)

9/13 are in the semis and already AAd (placed 6th at a minimum)

4/4 active gold medalists made the semis and AAd

3 medalists are in the R12 (Elam, Deakin, McKee)

Junior world medals continues to be an excellent predictor of success. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Steveson the first Junior World Champ to not make the NCAA finals in their first attempt?

 

Off the top of my head: 

Snyder - 2nd as a true frosh

Hall - Champ as a true frosh

Lee - Champ as a true frosh

Fix - in the finals, TBD

Lewis - in the finals, TBD 

Steveson - 3rd

 

Edit: NVM, I see Bradley did not ever make the finals at any point in his college career. 

Edited by goStanford18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×