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Housebuye

Facts about junior world medalists in college

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Over the last few years, the US has dramatically improved it's junior world success. I looked at the last 10 years to try and understand how we can use this larger data set to help predict future college success. 

There is way more you can do with this data. I kind of wish I was still in college so I could spend way more time on this, but I still think this info is interesting. I'm specifically looking at Men's Freestyle.

Facts

  • From 2009-2018, there have been 27 junior world medalists, including 5 who have at least 2 medals. I'm removing Pico from the rest of this as he gave up his college eligibility without wrestling, so I'll be using the 26 number for the rest of this.
  • The USA has won 9 golds from 7 wrestlers (Mark Hall (2x), Spencer Lee (2x), Mekhi Lewis, Daton Fix, Gable Steveson, Kyle Snyder, Dom Bradley)
  • Only 1 of the gold medalists who has competed in college hasn't won an NCAA title (Dom Bradley). That included Hall and Lee, both of whom won titles as true freshman. 
  • Medalists with completed eligibility average 2.8 AAs over the course of their career. That means that a medalist is more likely to AA than not in any given year.  
  • 20 junior world medalists have competed at least 1 year in college. Only 3 haven't AAd and only 1 is out of eligibility (Butler). 
  • 13 of the 26 medalists have used up their NCAA eligibility and 12 AAd at least once. That suggests that junior world medalists have a  92% chance of AAing
  • Only 1 of those 12 out of eligibility AAers AAd once (Pat Downey), wihch suggests junior world medalists have an 85% chance of AAing at least twice.
  • 11 of the 22 wrestlers who have competed in college at least for 1 year were finalists. 
  • 9 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least 3 times! (69%)
  • 10 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least twice 
  • Ryan Deakin and Mitch McKee are at risk of throwing off these numbers, as they are both junior world medalists (and finalist) who haven't AAd. Each still has eligibility, so it is likely they AA. 
  • 7 out of 12 guys without eligibility remaining won an NCAA title. This suggests that  58% of medalists will win a title. What is even crazier is if we include those still with eligibility (excluding those that haven't competed yet), 50% have won an NCAA title! The guys added here include Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall and Spencer Lee. 
  • 6 out of those 12 won multiple titles!

There are all kinds of interesting extrapolations that can be made from the data, but it is pretty clear that being a junior world medalist means it is highly likely you will AA multiple times and you have about a 50/50 chance of winning more than 1 title. For a gold medalist, the likelihood of winning a national title is 75%.

If we take this way too far...

Gable Steveson, Mekhi Lewis and Daton Fix  each have a 75% of winning a national title at some point

Both Mitch McKee and Ryan Deakin are very likely to AA 

Joey McKenna has at least a 69% likelihood of AAing this year (although if we account for it being his senior year, nobody who has AAd previously and won a junior world medal didn't AA their senior year, so 100%) 

Micic is extremely likely to AA and likely to win a title in the next two seasons

Aaron Brooks, Zach Elam and Brady Berge have a 76% chance to AA at least twice and a 58% chance of winning a national title. 

Mark Hall, Zahid Valencia and Spencer Lee are likely to win at least 1 more title 

I can't wait for the season to start

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4 hours ago, BobDole said:

Can you list the medalists and their NCAA credentials?

I didn't design this to be public facing, so it isn't the best format to display it, but sure.

The year listed is the most recent year that they competed. The other medal columns are medals from previous years. 

Name Year Medal Medal Medal AA Champion Eligibility Left
Mekhi Lewis 2018 Gold No No NA NA 4
Aaron Brooks 2018 Silver No No NA NA 4
Zach Elam 2018 Silver No No NA NA 4
Daton Fix 2018 Bronze Gold Bronze NA NA 4
Brady Berge 2018 Bronze No No NA NA 4
Mitch Mckee 2017 Silver No No 0 0 2
Ryan Deakin 2017 Silver No No 0 0 3
Mark Hall 2017 Gold Gold No 2 1 2
Zahid Valencia 2017 Silver No No 2 1 2
Kollin Moore 2017 Bronze No No 2 0 2
Gable Steveson 2017 Gold No No NA NA 4
Spencer Lee 2016 Gold Gold No 1 1 3
Stephan Micic 2015 Bronze No No 2 0 2
Aaron Pico 2015 Bronze Silver No NA NA 0
Nathan Butler 2015 Bronze No No 0 0 0
Thomas Gilman 2014 Bronze No No 3 0 0
Joey McKenna 2014 Silver No No 2 0 1
Gabe Dean 2014 Bronze No No 4 2 0
Kyle Snyder 2014 Bronze Gold No 4 3 0
Adam Coon 2014 Bronze No No 3 0 0
Alex Ringer 2013 Silver No No 4 3 0
Pat Downey 2012 Silver No No 1 0 0
Logan Steiber 2011 Silver No No 4 4 0
Chris Perry 2010 Bronze No No 3 2 0
Dom Bradley 2009 Gold No No 2 0 0
Jordan Oliver 2009 Bronze No No 4 2 0
Andrew Howe 2009 Bronze No No 4 1 0
Edited by Housebuye

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40 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Alex DIERinger. Faked me out.  Anyway, saw him coming out of Hideaway Pizza one time when he was a wrestler at OSU. I threatened to rat him out to John Smith on Twitter and he gave me a thumbs up :D

Pretty crazy a talent like him barely made the US national team in a non Olympic weight. 

I want to see him vs Mark Hall. 

Will he go 86 in 2020? What about 2019? He is a legit medal threat at the right weight. I actually hope he goes 74kg and battles to take over after Burroughs. Dake I imagine also doesn’t have more than a few years left. Ringer is still relatively young. He could make the team in 2021 or 2022, but only at 74kg I think

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1 hour ago, Housebuye said:

Pretty crazy a talent like him barely made the US national team in a non Olympic weight. 

I want to see him vs Mark Hall. 

Will he go 86 in 2020? What about 2019? He is a legit medal threat at the right weight. I actually hope he goes 74kg and battles to take over after Burroughs. Dake I imagine also doesn’t have more than a few years left. Ringer is still relatively young. He could make the team in 2021 or 2022, but only at 74kg I think

I suspect Ringer will make a push for 74kg.  86kg would be just too big in my opinion, and he just lost to Zahid pretty soundly, who is a.) only going to get bigger/better, and b.) will STILL be behind DT.

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33 minutes ago, treep2000 said:

I suspect Ringer will make a push for 74kg.  86kg would be just too big in my opinion, and he just lost to Zahid pretty soundly, who is a.) only going to get bigger/better, and b.) will STILL be behind DT.

I am not all that confident DT wins the spot in 2020. By then, Zahid will have two more years to progress. Aaron Brooks will likely be there too. He would have to make Snyder type gains to be on par with DT, but it is possible. Also, Dake has to choose to go down, which is likely, but isn't a sure thing. DT will likely also have to get past Jden, unless Jden can't make it down there. Jden is not the best style matchup for DT.

I can't see Ringer beating any of those guys at 86. He is more likely to make the team at 74, even if Dake and Burroughs are there. He would have to wrestle the tournament of his life, but I think Molinaro making the team in 2016 was less likely than Ringer making it in 2020, as crazy as that sounds.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Pretty crazy a talent like him barely made the US national team in a non Olympic weight. 

I want to see him vs Mark Hall. 

Will he go 86 in 2020? What about 2019? He is a legit medal threat at the right weight. I actually hope he goes 74kg and battles to take over after Burroughs. Dake I imagine also doesn’t have more than a few years left. Ringer is still relatively young. He could make the team in 2021 or 2022, but only at 74kg I think

 

Don't know, but I've always liked Dieringer. Think he's gonna have to wait Dake out. Hopefully Dake wins a gold, retires, and Dieringer gets the slot.

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1 hour ago, treep2000 said:

I suspect Ringer will make a push for 74kg.  86kg would be just too big in my opinion, and he just lost to Zahid pretty soundly, who is a.) only going to get bigger/better, and b.) will STILL be behind DT.


Zahid is a talent, but like you said I see him moving up out of Ringer's weight range.

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My OTHER bold prediction is that Hall "comes clean", and says... yeah... I DO see 74kg again in my future, and runs amok at 74kg beating BOTH Dake and Ringer in 2020.  

Hall is then quoted as saying:  "yeah... i was just kidding... I really weigh 162lbs anyway, and I just like to mess with people's heads".

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1 hour ago, treep2000 said:

My OTHER bold prediction is that Hall "comes clean", and says... yeah... I DO see 74kg again in my future, and runs amok at 74kg beating BOTH Dake and Ringer in 2020.  

Hall is then quoted as saying:  "yeah... i was just kidding... I really weigh 162lbs anyway, and I just like to mess with people's heads".

Hall fan here. 

He isn’t winning the spot over Dake or JB. I think him vs Ringer would be super interesting. I’ll pick Hall

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