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CaliWrestler

JG JB, KD, DT, JC, KS, NG

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I would like to know everyone thoughts on gold for each individual athlete that is expected to wrestle for Gold, percentage only please.

 

James Green?    45%

Jordan Burroughs?   95%

Kyle Dake?      85%

David Taylor?    90%

Kyle Snyder?    95%

Nick Gwiazdowski?   30%

That's how I see it. 

mspart

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Bunch of US homers!

I’d be happy with two golds and three other medals of any color. Half the team isn’t heavily favored to win gold. Let’s be realistic. I have Snyder and JB each about 60-65% to win gold. Dake and DT probably not more than 50/50. Everyone else a long shot. 

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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Well I know Gilman isn't mentioned here and I know he did not have the best World Cup or Pan Am's but I have to think the new weigh in rules give him an advantage in the fact that a lot of the heavy hitters will be up a weight class or two. I say he has a good chance of getting a medal. 

Colon, is gritty but I think the best is two or three wins so maybe he strings somethings together, but I think 5th place will be about the best. If he does win a Bronze, it will be great. 

Logiebear, I don't have a clue, but I guess it just depends on Logan getting on and staying on his offense. I think he could medal. 

JG, I think his speed propels him to a medal, most likely a Bronze, maybe a Silver. 

JB, I will be surprised if he does not get the Gold, Silver at the worst. 

KD, has looked really good all year, I believe he has an excellent shot medaling, and it wouldn't surprise me that he goes on a blistering run all the way to the finals. 

DT, Gold or Silver. ( same as KD, has looked great all year ). He will make the most of this opportunity. 

JC, wrestles well enough, and wins enough to win a Bronze. 

SnydeMan, I would be very disappointed if he does not win the title. Silver at the worst. 

NG, I feel very confident that he medals, most likely a Bronze, maybe gets to the finals. 

Unfortunately, a lot will depend of the draws our wrestlers get.  

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The question is gold?  I hope you guys are right.

JG: 10%

JB: 50%

KD: 40%

DT: 35%

JC: 20%

KS: 70%

NG: 10%

Rationale: I used the chances for victory against the perceived best foreign opponent as the starting point.  From there I backed out guys down based on the number and quality of landmine rounding out the field.  For example, I have DT as 40:60 against Hassan Yazdani.  With demonstrated success against the remaining competitors expected to appear, I dropped him back a mere 5% additional points.

I have KS at 80:20 against Abdulrashid Sadulaev.  With losses to others in the field, I wanted to rock an additional 15%, but considering KS history of correcting losses at the culminating event, I settled on just 10%.

Gold for NG will require he beat one of or both of TUR and GEO.  10% is probably generous.

 

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I don't mean to be a naysayer but the percentage of the first two posters are borderline absurd. I love Gwiz, but he got taken down five times IN ONE PERIOD by Akgul last year, and then Akgul got beat.  I know he wrestled Geno tough but Geno was hurt. I say his chances are similar to the percentage of Elizabeth Warren's Native American heritage, recently estimated at  .0009765625%  from what I understand. 

As an Ohio guy I love DT as much as anyone- but he's got the most dominant wrestler from last year's world championships- the three time defending world champ- in his weight class. Yazdanicharati is still only like 23, so he should have only gotten bigger and better than last year.  This is 50/50 at best.  This is the world championships- it's not like there aren't other guys who can knock off DT along the way as well- the Cuban, the Russian, or somebody that nobody is even thinking.

Ditto Kyle Snyder- he looks like a 50/50 against Sadulaev to me, and has lost to Alborov twice, and nearly lost to the Cuban on the slippery mats so anything can happen here. 

I have absolutely no early idea how James Green is almost 50/50.  I feel like his international season since world's last year has been pretty up and down. I get that there's no clear favorite here but I think he's more like not to medal at all than to take the Gold.

JB is 50/50 against Chamizo and could get knocked off by plenty of other guys.  People forget he was a hair away from losing last year in either the second or third round.

 

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2 minutes ago, JHRoseWrestling said:

Fun police

My issue with this goes far beyond this topic.  538 has an entire website stretching statistics to create percentages for literally everything related to sports/politics, when these percentages are no more accurate than simply saying something is "likely," "probable," "unlikely," etc.  

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Well we by no means have to agree.  I, for one, am really enjoying applying numerical values to these probabilities.  It makes one think deeply about the beliefs we hold and this linear method of thinking my even drive us to conclusions divergent from what our initial reactions would be.  Before I give you a final thing to consider,  let’s acknowledge that this board is riddled with topics that I find frivolous.  You can always elect not to continue reading the thread (understanding that the thread title did not indicate we would be assigning numerical values to quantify the strength of ones opinion) but you chose to insult those who did participate (understanding that your statement may not have been a direct attack, but a mildly rude observation).

So the parting shot: there is the opportunity to legally gamble on the event in question.  By following a numerical line of thinking it could help the prospective bettor determine what odds have value based on their self-generated probability.  Since you indicated a lack of understanding of why this exercise would be worthy of time investment, I simply offer a possibility as to why this could be useful.  I won’t be playing for money myself, I simply appreciate the opportunity to do some evaluation of our team through a different metric in anticipation of my favorite week of wrestling this year.

Cheers and go Team USA.

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My issue with this goes far beyond this topic.  538 has an entire website stretching statistics to create percentages for literally everything related to sports/politics, when these percentages are no more accurate than simply saying something is "likely," "probable," "unlikely," etc.  


You are 50.6 % correct.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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On 10/15/2018 at 7:15 PM, mspart said:

I would like to know everyone thoughts on gold for each individual athlete that is expected to wrestle for Gold, percentage only please.

 

James Green?    45%

Jordan Burroughs?   95%

Kyle Dake?      85%

David Taylor?    90%

Kyle Snyder?    95%

Nick Gwiazdowski?   30%

That's how I see it. 

mspart

These are super high! The chances of winning gold requires you to multiply each matches’ odds together. 

 

For example, Taylor will have 4 matches to win gold. Even if he is 90% to win the first three each and 75% to beat Yaz (I think it’s lower), that gives him a 55% of winning gold. 

 

Dake has to beat a guy who dominated him and will face him in the semis. 

Green - 10%

burroughs 60%

Dake 25%

Taylor 40% 

Snyder 40% - two guys in the field can beat him  

Gwiz 5% - two hammers. He will almost certainly have to face both to win gold. Even if you give him a 1/4 chance against each which is way too high, plus you assume he is 90% to win his other two matches, he is at 5%

 

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On 10/15/2018 at 11:44 PM, wrestlingnerd said:

Bunch of US homers!

I’d be happy with two golds and three other medals of any color. Half the team isn’t heavily favored to win gold. Let’s be realistic. I have Snyder and JB each about 60-65% to win gold. Dake and DT probably not more than 50/50. Everyone else a long shot. 

How is a Dake 50/50? He isn’t even 50/50 to make the finals. He has to win two matches and the face a guy who dominated him in the semis. The semis match alone he is far under 50%

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For Gold?

James Green 8.3%  (Can lose to 6 guys at the weight, losing his separation) 

Jordan Burroughs 30% (Chamizo gets the other 30%, the remaining 40% can be spread across the 4 other wrestlers who could easily be finalist)

Kyle Dake 30% (First worlds, been dominated by #1 seed go go )

David Taylor 40% (Yazdani, and a game Torreblanco, keep it below 50/50)

Kyle Snyder 40% (looked semi vulnerable this year, and  Sadulaev is a murderer 

Nick Gwiazdowski 5.5%  (would need a miracle) 


 

 

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If this is GOLD only, I'd go with:

James Green?    10% - Some tough guys at the weight.

Jordan Burroughs?   40% - Chamizo.  Demirtas.  Both contend.

Kyle Dake?      55% - I think it's a toss-up vs. his Russian adversary.  

David Taylor?    60% - I think he can take Yazadani, but still, a large chance he doesn't.

Kyle Snyder?    45% - Looks vulnerable, but we've said that every single year and he's won.

J'Den Cox:?  15% - I am not liking his odds at this weight class.  I have yet to see evidence of his world class athleticism proving out.

Nick Gwiazdowski?   15% - The top 2 are near locks.  Gold is a big stretch

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So I'm going to go against the grain here a bit and say that the American with the best chance is..... Kyle Dake.  Here's why:

Over the past year, it's probably fair to say that Dake, Taylor, JB, and Snyder have been sort of a "fab four". All but Taylor have taken only a single loss despite competing at numerous high level events. Difference between Dake and the other three is that Dake doesn't have a wrestler the caliber of Sadulaev, Yazdanicharati, or Chamizo in his bracket.    People assuming he's a major underdog are falling victim to what I'm calling the "one match fallacy"- thinking you can decide who is the better wrestler based on one good or bad match. If we did that, we might conclude that Nick Marable was better than Burroughs.  Or Kyven Gadsen better than Snyder.  The Russian has had a great year, but he's not exactly some new rising sensation (he's 28). So he has a long track record we can look at. Why hasn't he ever represented Russia in any world or Olympic Championship previously?  They've sent three different guys over the past five years but never Gadz. Looking at his results on Wikipedia he seems sort of hot and cold, one day dominating Tsabolov and Dake, another day getting knocked off early by some unknown guy at Russian Nationals, or by Suleymanov of Aze at Europeans (a quality wrestler, but still a guy who has lost to Mark Hall and David Taylor among others). 

The thing is, that loss for Dake is pretty much the only "bad loss" of his freestyle career.  The guy is something like 20-0 against the likes of David Taylor, Alex Dierenger, Zahid Valenica, Andrew Howe and Nick Marable. Since college no American has beat him other than JB and the much larger J'den.  So he's pretty consistent. He's got as diverse an arsenal of weapons as anyone we have and no apparent weaknesses.  Outside of the Yarygin final, the only way to beat him that I've seen is with elite speed.  Nobody here has JB speed. I like his chances.  For god sake, he almost made the Olympic Team wrestling up 25 lbs. 

 

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Also, while we can all agree that Colon has very little chance (though I believe he may do much better than people expect), it seems kinda random and possibly a bit disrespectful than Stieber and Gilman aren't even listed.  Gilman's the returning silver medalist- there is no true "marquee" guy in his weight and he recently was one of our only guys to win that big event they all went to (name escapes me).  I haven't seen him dominated by anyone. Give him at least a 10 percent here. 

Stieber is everyone's favorite punching bag, and he's had some duds.  However, the fact is that Aliev, Valdes Tobier, and Chakaev seem to be the big three according to most observers.  Logan's 5-0 against them combined so this isn't impossible.  I think it just depends which Logan Stieber shows up. If the guy who beat Romanov a few months before Romanov was Olympic Champ shows up,- the Logan who won in 2016, or the Logan who beat Pico 13-4, he can beat anyone in the field. If the guy who showed up at last year's world championship or this year's Yarygin shows up...not so much.  Everyone acts like his wins are ancient history but he beat Aliev and Tobier THIS YEAR. I'd give him 10%, which is way better than Gwiz's odds in my view- only because Gwiz has to beat the best heavyweight freestyle wrestler to ever lace up a pair of wrestling shoes (and Geno as well).

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On 10/17/2018 at 1:07 AM, Billyhoyle said:

My issue with this goes far beyond this topic.  538 has an entire website stretching statistics to create percentages for literally everything related to sports/politics, when these percentages are no more accurate than simply saying something is "likely," "probable," "unlikely," etc.  

Same reason the weather person doesn't say "it'll be warm and it might rain." "Warm" and "might" mean different things to different people and many of us enjoy more specific context. Tangible estimates rather than a general feeling are what guide oddsmakers, business decision-makers, doctors, engineers, pilots...etc., etc., etc.  Why should we be surprised that a good portion of a well-educated society likes to see tangible probabilities on their entertainment and politics too? 

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9 hours ago, Cradle1 said:

People assuming he's a major underdog are falling victim to what I'm calling the "one match fallacy"- thinking you can decide who is the better wrestler based on one good or bad match.

Looking at his results on Wikipedia he seems sort of hot and cold, one day dominating Tsabolov and Dake, another day getting knocked off early by some unknown guy at Russian Nationals, or by Suleymanov of Aze at Europeans (a quality wrestler, but still a guy who has lost to Mark Hall and David Taylor among others). 

You might be right, and I think Dake is capable of making adjustments and winning that match.  But it's worth noting that Gadzhimagomedov is undefeated at 79kg including Yarygin, Euros, and Russian Nationals, and has 3 Yarygin titles to his name.  It's also worth noting the way the Dake/Gadzhi match played out... he shut Dake's offense down at every turn, and scored from multiple positions, with counter-offense as well as off of his own.  

 

9 hours ago, Cradle1 said:

However, the fact is that Aliev, Valdes Tobier, and Chakaev seem to be the big three according to most observers.  Logan's 5-0 against them combined so this isn't impossible.  I think it just depends which Logan Stieber shows up. 

Gotta disagree with you here.  Those aren't the "big 3," although all 3 are capable of beating Stieber (as he is of beating them, clearly).  

You left out:

Gadzhiev (probably the betting favorite now that he's confirmed 65kg)
Khinchegashvili (teched Stieber with relative ease last year)
Otoguro (beat Stieber 10-5 at the World Cup)
Bajrang (won Dogu at Stieber's weight)
Niyazbekov (Asian champ, bets Stieber at Dogu round 1)
 

It's not that Logan can't beat most of these guys, it's that he hasn't shown nearly enough consistency for us to believe he's going to string together wins over 2 or 3 of these guys in 1 weekend.  If you're one of the favorites, you'd hate to see Stieber as your round 1 opponent... but if you're an unranked/unknown matched up against him, you probably like your chances.  

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Great breakdown and analysis. I did sort of Cherry-pick my Logan resuits lol.  Fair enough.  One thing about Stieber though, his inconsistency seems to be event to event, not match to match.  Once he gets on a roll, he usually stays on a roll. Having watched him for many years I can spot almost right away if he's coming out with that gunslinger mentality or tentative.  Tentative Logan struggles, "caution to the wind" Logan is tough to beat for anyone.  This weight is incredibly deep though- even if he's at his very best, he's just one of about eight guys who could emerge from the pack. Or it could be someone completely unanticipated. This weight is always full of surprises.

You may be right about Gadz.  It could be that the new weight is a much better fit for him.  He did look amazing against KD last time.  He's certainly the odds on favorite on paper. We'll know soon enough! 

 

 

Edited by Cradle1

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