Freestyle team champ odds

[maligned 529]

For the team competition, I have to be honest, I don't think we have as good of a chance of winning as some people think. I think we performed unbelievably well, got a little luck, and saw some bad luck for the Russians in 2017. Especially with the new scoring system, I think Russia should be considered big favorites. Even when they perform badly, I think they're still going to pick up 10s and 15s where our "bad" weights in several cases could easily be 0-4 points. (Sidenote: I don't think anyone other than the U.S. or Russia is deep enough to win it; and with 10 weights, it will be very, very difficult to pull off a "surprise" team win.)

If I were trying to give objective odds, I think I'd put them somewhere around this:

Russia 2/5

United States 3/1

Field 6/1

What do others think?

[Housebuye 2,437]

I mostly agree. Worth remembering that the only reason Russia was close to the US scoring wise was because of a gift at 86kg. Russia actually lucked out last year and still lost. 

 

This year Russian is the favorite. The US has less room for error than Russia. With that said, one major upset puts the US ahead. For example, off russia scores 0 at 57 and the US gets a silver, we are in the drivers seat most likely. That’s a 20 point spread. This is exactly what happened last year, but with a different scoring system. 

 

I agree with your odds. Spot on.