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Housebuye

World Championships 2018 - Discussion Thread - Day 1

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Who

61 KG - Joe Colon

74 KG - Jordan Burroughs

86 KG - David Taylor

125 KG - Nick Gwizdowski

When

https://www.flowrestling.org/events/6245648-2018-uww-world-championships/schedule

Saturday, October 20

4:30AM ET to 9:30AM ET - Preliminary rounds for 61, 74, 86 & 125 kg in Men's Freestyle.

9:45AM ET to 10:15AM ET - Draws revealed for 57, 65, 79 & 92 kg in Men's Freestyle.

10:45AM ET to 11:45AM ET - Semifinal rounds for 61, 74, 86 & 125 kg in Men's Freestyle.

What to Watch For

61 KG

Joe Colon is a late replacement. He is the #4 seed, so he will avoid the #1 seed (russia) until the finals if he makes it. Interesting, Russia has the only real threat to his title on his side, which is good for us! Russia needs a lot of points here to make up for heavyweight and possibly the 74kg spread. This weight is a big insurance policy for them, so anything less than a 15 point advantage for them is under performing, and gives us a tiny bit of wiggle room, just in case Sadulaev beats Snyder, or Uguev goes on a run.

Joe's job is to win one match. He has a bye into the R16, so one win will score us team points. Two wins in a row means he scores us a minimum of 10 points, which honestly could be the difference in the team race, but not what we are counting on. 

74 KG

Jordan Burroughs has an insanely difficult draw. The good news is, Russia is likely to meet JB in the quarters. Burroughs has to go through 3 legit opponents, including Chamizo, to make the finals. Even if JB loses to Chamizo, we are likely in a good spot team race wise. it eliminates the Russian and we will outscore them. Obviously it would be better for JB to win it all (25 points) and the Russian has to face Chamizo for bronze (although he does have a win over chamizo). A JB gold here would be enourmous given the draw. A JB loss in the semis is still fine, team race wise. 

86 KG

DT's first match is against Yazdani. If he wins that, he has the stingy Cuban. If he wins that one he most likely has that stingy Cuban who gives him trouble. Suleymanov (AZE) or Kurgliev (Russia) would be his semi. Basically, if DT wins against Yaz, he is likely to win gold. Best case for the US would be Suleymanov beating Kurgliev, DT beating Yazdani, and DT beating Suleymanov in the semis. If that occurs, Russia would only score a few points at the weight and the US would have at least a 20 point advantage here. A lot is riding on DT vs Yaz. 

The other scenario is Yazdani beating DT. I think it is fair to assume Yaz would then beat Cuba, and either Suleymanov or Kurgliev. Worst case in this scenario is DT facing Kurgliev for bronze. If we win, we get a 5 point advantage. We could very well end up with a bronze here and Russia will just a couple points, giving us over a 10 point advantage. 

125 KG

Gwiz got an incredible draw. He has a path to the finals. He has the ability to do this. It reminds me of Jden's draw last year (he lost in the semis to someone he should've beat). This isn't a cakewalk, but Gwiz doesn't need any major upsets to make it that far. Russia's best case in bronze. They are on the same side as the clea cut #1 and #2, along with a solid Ukrainian. It is relatively unlikely that Russia medals here. We could have a 20 point advantage at this weight. HUGE deal.

The USA got 2 terrible draws, 1 mediocre draw and 1 incredible draw. 

Russia got 2 terrible draws, and 2 mediocre draws

Edited by Housebuye

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Nice Analysis..

Based on the draw, here are my picks for Gold.

* 61kg  - Finals Bonnie vs Rashidov - I am picking Bonnie here :-). Few other things to note 

  • Colon has a good chance for Bronze. I doubt if he can get past Bonnie if he meets in Semis thus settle to Bronze
  • Note that Erdenbat (MGL) is not in the draw.    Note: my bad, for a while i thought he is of 61kg, but actually he is for 57kg

 

 

* 74kg -  Finals  Chamizo vs S. Demirtas. Chamizo Gold

  • Interesting to see Ganzorig Mandhkaran (MGL) in 74kg and also bottom half.  He has a good chance to win Bronze
  • JB and Sidakov will meet in quarters. Very interesting to see how Sidakov performs against JB. I am picking Sidakov here

 

* 86kg - one hell of a draw in bottom half, I think Yazdani would emerge out of this beating Kurugliev in Semis. From top half, i think B.Makoev (SVK) will reach Finals. Yazdani Gold.

  • I.VEREB (HUN) good chance for Bronze.
  • DT wins Bronze

 

* 86kg - Again, one hell of a draw in bottom half, i think Taha Akgul will come out and enter into Finals.  From top half, Gwiz will make into finals. Taha Gold, Gwiz Silver.

  • Geno Bronze  from bottom half.
  • MGL Bronze from top half

 

 

Best Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Gold, 74kg - Gold, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

USA: 61kg - Bronze, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - Gold, 125kg - Silver

 

Worst Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Silver, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - No Medal, 125kg - No Medal

USA: 61kg - No Medal, 74kg - No Medal, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

 

Edited by freestyle_fan
made an edit to 61kg

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2 minutes ago, freestyle_fan said:

Interesting to see Ganzorig Mandhkaran (MGL) in 74kg and also bottom half.  He has a good chance to win Bronze

  •  

he wrestled at the Asian Games in this weight and he was terrible (teched by Fujinami) he has no chance for anything

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56 minutes ago, freestyle_fan said:

Best Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Gold, 74kg - Gold, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

USA: 61kg - Bronze, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - Gold, 125kg - Silver

 

Worst Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Silver, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - No Medal, 125kg - No Medal

USA: 61kg - No Medal, 74kg - No Medal, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

 

 

giphy.gif

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2 hours ago, freestyle_fan said:

Best Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Gold, 74kg - Gold, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

USA: 61kg - Bronze, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - Gold, 125kg - Silver

 

Worst Case Scenario:

Russia: 61kg - Silver, 74kg - Bronze, 86kg - No Medal, 125kg - No Medal

USA: 61kg - No Medal, 74kg - No Medal, 86kg - Bronze, 125kg - Bronze

 

Thanks for the analysis! 

I would be shocked if Russia won a bronze at 125. I don't think they will even be in a medal match. That draw is brutal. 

How is our ceiling at 74 bronze? You don't see any way for Burroughs to do what he has done most of the time he has competed at worlds? Strongly disagree here. I would say worst case is accurate though. If JB loses in the quarters, he may get eliminated if Chamizo wins in the semis. 

Also - at 61kg, Russia could very well end up with a bronze. Lomtadze is a live underdog vs Rashidov and could take him out in the semis.

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Hi all, is the bout number on the bracket the order of the wrestling matches?

 

For example, I see Taylor's match is bout 48.  Is this expected to be the 48th match wrestled (roughly) tomorrow morning?

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9 minutes ago, nom said:

Hi all, is the bout number on the bracket the order of the wrestling matches?

 

For example, I see Taylor's match is bout 48.  Is this expected to be the 48th match wrestled (roughly) tomorrow morning?

 

One mistake = Yaz vs Taylor is on Mat C

Edited by Housebuye

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One match at a time...but David winning the semis would be amazing. He does have a tough Cuba next match, but I think he is 2-0 against him

I don't think anyone stops him. I'm so impressed. Yazdani doesn't get the respect most Olympic champs get, but he is P4P one of the best wrestlers in the world. I have him 4th. Now America might have 3 top 5 P4Ps if DT can bring this thing home

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