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Ohio State 22 vs Arizona State 17

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4 hours ago, JBluegill133 said:

They have heinselman but are shirting him this year I believe.  "Normal" starter is brakan mead.  Probably would've had a better showing with him.

I'm pretty confident they will pull Heinselman's shirt, just not until January. They didn't shirt Martin, which suggests they are planning on fighting for the title this year. It is a long shot, but Tom Ryan believes they can do it I'm sure. With that in mind, if Heinselman shows he has a shot at AAing (he hasn't yet...) they will pull his shirt. I think he will make it into the rankings and they pull it.

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

If Ohio St wrestles their best guy at every weight they can beat out Iowa for 2nd place. 

True 

I do think a lot of the early season predictions are putting way too much stock in:

1. Kemerer at 174 - I think there are 5 guys who are better than him (valencia, hall, amine, kutler, Lewis) at least. 

2. Stoll - he isn't going to get near a title

3. 157 - Iowa isn't AAing here

4. Desanto - isn't a lock to AA. This weight is stacked. This will depend on draw. I will say if you aren't ready for his pace, anyone can lose to him, including Gross, Micic, Fix, etc. Doubt it happens at NCAAs though.

5. Lugo - he isn't a serious title contender. Yes, it wouldn't be super shocking if he beat Micah, Kolodzik or Ashnault, but winning 1 match isn't always an indication of NCAA success. He has never shown the type of consistency champions almost always do. I think AAing is reasonable for him, but even that isn't a lock.

6. Wilcke has never beaten an AA. I think he is 0-12 vs AAs. He could sneak on the podium, but it is under 50% based on his results. 

I do think Iowa looks great at 125, 141, 165, and 197 (maybe). 

Best guess is Iowa ends up with 6 AAs and is fighting for 2nd, but ends up 3rd.

 

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22 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

True 

I do think a lot of the early season predictions are putting way too much stock in:

1. Kemerer at 174 - I think there are 5 guys who are better than him (valencia, hall, amine, kutler, Lewis) at least. 

2. Stoll - he isn't going to get near a title

3. 157 - Iowa isn't AAing here

4. Desanto - isn't a lock to AA. This weight is stacked. This will depend on draw. I will say if you aren't ready for his pace, anyone can lose to him, including Gross, Micic, Fix, etc. Doubt it happens at NCAAs though.

5. Lugo - he isn't a serious title contender. Yes, it wouldn't be super shocking if he beat Micah, Kolodzik or Ashnault, but winning 1 match isn't always an indication of NCAA success. He has never shown the type of consistency champions almost always do. I think AAing is reasonable for him, but even that isn't a lock.

6. Wilcke has never beaten an AA. I think he is 0-12 vs AAs. He could sneak on the podium, but it is under 50% based on his results. 

I do think Iowa looks great at 125, 141, 165, and 197 (maybe). 

Best guess is Iowa ends up with 6 AAs and is fighting for 2nd, but ends up 3rd.

 

 

There are 9 or 10 different 133's that I like more than DeSanto at NCAAs. He could AA, or not. 

The other part at the end that you bolded, 125 they are basically getting max points. Now their upside at NCAA at 141 is about 5th, but their low end is probably R12. 165 is totally stacked weight so anything for Marinelli from 2 to 6 could happen. 197 for Warner I have his upside at 3 but his downside could be 7th or 8th. He lost a bunch of times at Midlands (to guys that are back), so he could lose a bunch of times at NCAAs too!

If Tom Ryan puts Heinselman out there then he thinks he can beat Iowa for 2nd and I'd agree with him. 

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Heinselman's early season results show a guy you probably bet to not make it on the podium.  The skill is there, but he definitely needs a year.  He is their best guy by far but I don't think you can count on major points from him unless he makes a big leap.  That said, do you pull the shirt?  Really tough call...

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2 minutes ago, Gantry said:

Heinselman's early season results show a guy you probably bet to not make it on the podium.  The skill is there, but he definitely needs a year.  He is their best guy by far but I don't think you can count on major points from him unless he makes a big leap.  That said, do you pull the shirt?  Really tough call...

Heinselman might not score 1 point, but if Ryan pulls his redshirt then Ryan has calculated he can beat Iowa and I would trust that calculus. Given all of Iowa's question marks I think they are the more likely to underperform expectations than Ohio State is. 

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Bucks are slightly overrated at moment.  The four M's--McKenna, Martin, Moore and Micah are all potential finalists.  But the drop off is huge.  Pletcher is the only other guy I can see on the stand and he's got to contend with Micic, Gross, Fix, Wilson, Suriano and Lizak among others at a deep weight.  Hayes at 157 is just another solid guy.  Same for Campbell at 174.  Romero is a question mark at present.  Same for Singletary.  Heinselman is their best option at 125 but he's not close to AA status at present.  Iowa looks to be overrated as well as they have a lot of potential low placers but only Lee is a likely champ.  I like Michigan and Cornell among others if they stay healthy.  The only sure thing is PSU.  They may win it by 50 points.  

 

Edited by silvermedal

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I agree with your analysis by and large (as usual).  A couple of things to think about, however. 

You say the four M's are all potential finalists, and you're right, but I'd go so far as to say that you could easily see four finalists and two champs out of the group. So that's a LOT of points.  Martin is an overwhelming favorite, if Moore is back to form he could be a tough matchup for Bo Nickal, and if Yianni isn't 100 percent you sure have to like McKenna's chances considering he almost made the world team this spring and has two 3rd place medals to his credit. Also have to like Micah's chances consider Kolodzik is #1 and I don't see him beating Micah. If everything fell right you could see three champs out of this group.

Romero will take his lumps, but I think he has a huge upside and may progress tremendously.  The talent is there, this is a guy who has always been a three sport athlete wrestling a D-3 schedule a few months a year getting his first look at elite competition week in and week out.  I could see a huge progression- unfortunately, this is the toughest weight other than 133.

Singletary doesn't exactly set my pulse racing to be honest, but he's currently 10-0 as a freshman in what is without a doubt the worst heavyweight field in the modern era of wrestling.  Just based on how bad the field is, I'd say he's a dark horse AA contender (again, figuring the progress a freshman heavyweight can make).

Hayes is another one that I wouldn't write off just yet.  Sure he's light, but he's pretty tall so I think they can put some mass on him over the course of the year, and he'll be competing with a lot of energy not cutting.  After the top five here, there's a huge drop off- the next best guys are people like Kennedy Monday and Taleb Rahmani, I think he's got a 50 percent chance or better against wrestlers of this caliber.   I'm not sure why people are down on Hayes- wrestlestat shows him as having a 66-9 career record which is pretty damn good.  He's only lost to one non All-American in his entire career so far.  Took down Zane Retherford twice in one match.  Has a 2-1 career record against the #1 ranked 149.  I like his chances here.

Luke Pletcher is a guy that gets overlooked in the insane 133 field- but this guy is a winner.  Last year in his first year at his legitimate weight (in what would have typically been his freshman year if he had redshirted instead of competing up a weight as a true frosh), he was unbeaten until his second match with the outstanding Micic on February 11th. He's the sort of guy that could catch one of the frontrunners here by surprise in my view, and I like his chances in a rematch with Wilson (who obviously caught fire at NCAAs) and/or against Desanto or Lizak.

Agreed that Heinselman needs a redshirt to get bigger and more experienced for next year- and I hope that's the route they go. 

 

 

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The point is you’re searching for the upside. With tOSO there is some for sure. With PSU you’re searching for the downside. There isn’t much, unfortunately.

As for overrated/underrated stuff...means little come March.

PSU could lap the field.
Looks like Iowa, Okie St, OSU, Michigan in there for a trophy and a team like Cornell to jump into it somewhere as well.



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1 hour ago, LordNelson said:

The point is you’re searching for the upside. With tOSO there is some for sure. With PSU you’re searching for the downside. There isn’t much, unfortunately.

As for overrated/underrated stuff...means little come March.

PSU could lap the field.
Looks like Iowa, Okie St, OSU, Michigan in there for a trophy and a team like Cornell to jump into it somewhere as well.



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NC State too. They have 3 AAs, likely at least 9 maybe 10 qualifiers, 8 top 20 guys, 5 ranked as AAs, and 3 potential finalists. 

Best case would be around 100 points, which could even land them in 3rd. 

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NC State too. They have 3 AAs, likely at least 9 maybe 10 qualifiers, 8 top 20 guys, 5 ranked as AAs, and 3 potential finalists. 
Best case would be around 100 points, which could even land them in 3rd. 

Hope so. Nothing they accomplish will surprise me. Pop has built a powerhouse and has to be considered in the top tier of the coaching ladder.


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On 11/19/2018 at 4:47 PM, jchapman said:

How old is Tanner Hall?

In this article dated Jan. 27, 2016, i.e., roughly 34 months ago, it was mentioned that Tanner Hall had just turned 23 one week prior.   That means he is currently 25 years old and will be 26 in mid-January 2019.   But that happens all the time with LDS athletes.   As most of them go on LDS missions for 2 or 3 years.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2016/01/27/asu-heavyweight-hall-making-mark-23-year-old-freshman/79408712/

Which is why BYU regularly has pretty good football teams - when they are starting guys who are 26 or 27 years old against 20 year olds.

Edited by Bronco
addition

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On 11/20/2018 at 1:48 PM, Gantry said:

Heinselman's early season results show a guy you probably bet to not make it on the podium.  The skill is there, but he definitely needs a year.  He is their best guy by far but I don't think you can count on major points from him unless he makes a big leap.  That said, do you pull the shirt?  Really tough call...

Best guy by far based on what? His 1 point margin of victory wins against two of their other 125# in wrestle offs? If he is their best guy (he is), by far, there would be no question regarding pulling his redshirt. 

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His ability to beat other opponents, not teammates.    I don't want to split hairs over "by far" but based on early season tournies he looks like their best guy by a decent margin.  That said is it enough to AA?  That is the question to me for his coaches - moreso than if he's clearly better than his teammates... 

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