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Jimmy Cinnabon

How can another school overtake PSU and OSU?

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7 hours ago, red blades said:

No.  There is a reason Cael left ISU for PSU.  And while I concede that Cael is an essential part of PSU's success, he is not the only factor there.

 

Actually I think Cael IS the pertinent factor here. I think a lot of guys are fooling themselves that Cael couldn't have done what he's done anywhere but a Pennsylvania school. Cael was pretty impressive at ISU and I feel he'd have done just about as well as he's done at PSU if he'd stayed at ISU. Sure, PSU had a good kernel of talent when he moved there, but he'd assembled some talent at ISU, too. I also feel very strongly that if Cael had never gone to PSU that PSU would still only have the 1 NCAA team championship they had before he came along. His name recognition and recruiting are ridiculously over the top. Every top notch kid wants to wrestle for him, just like they did for Dan Gable back in the day. They'd still want to wrestle for him even if he was in (ugh)...Iowa. Or Stillwater. Or Norman (please Lord!).

 

 

 

Edited by TobusRex

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10 hours ago, PSUMike said:

While I think they've been the 2 best teams for the last 5-10 years, I don't think the gap between 2 and 3 is as sizable as most think. Iowa is only a baby step behind OHST right now and will likely have a better finish come March. 

Ultimately, I don't think the formula is complicated but pulling it off consistently is. You need a big name as a coach, an RTC with a good name in association with the school, and you need your guys to perform when it matters. That will make the recruiting easier all around and you can take some of the blue chippers away from the big guys.

People are high on AZ State being able to break that ceiling to the top teir and their recruiting has taken a major uptick in the last 4 years but I'm still not sold on them. I don't feel the results have quite been up to expectations. Maybe with the new crop like Schultz, Richie Figs, etc., they'll go the Zahid route but that remains to be seen. I don't think any program right now has their ducks in a row to make that leap. I thought Oklahoma could have with Roselli and I thought Iowa State could have as well but they are still a few years and recruiting cycles away if ever.

 

Zeke has done a spectacular job at ASU. If he can keep building on his success and bringing in guys like Zahid he might just crack the PSU machine at NCAAs one of these days.

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3 hours ago, TobusRex said:

 

Actually I think Cael IS the pertinent factor here. I think a lot of guys are fooling themselves that Cael couldn't have done what he's done anywhere but a Pennsylvania school. Cael was pretty impressive at ISU and I feel he'd have done just about as well as he's done at PSU if he'd stayed at ISU. Sure, PSU had a good kernel of talent when he moved there, but he'd assembled some talent at ISU, too. I also feel very strongly that if Cael had never gone to PSU that PSU would still only have the 1 NCAA team championship they had before he came along. His name recognition and recruiting are ridiculously over the top. Every top notch kid wants to wrestle for him, just like they did for Dan Gable back in the day. They'd still want to wrestle for him even if he was in (ugh)...Iowa. Or Stillwater. Or Norman (please Lord!).

 

 

 

I agree that he still would have been successful at ISU, or elsewhere for that matter.  David Taylor was originally committed to ISU before Cael took the job at PSU.

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Cael didn't leave for the money as much as he did to get out of Iowa and into fresh new territory where he could get a clean start. In Iowa he was in the shadow of the Brands and couldn't attract blue chip recruits like he can at PSU. He didn't want to wait around for things to change. Call it a case of impatience and good judgment.

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I think PSU's recruiting momentum has slowed down a little bit.  There's a bunch of PA kids ranked ahead of PSU kids who are wrestling at other schools.  There's also a lot of uncertainty outside of Nolf, Cenzo, Hall, and Nickal.  Once these guys are gone, the gap should close some.  

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30 minutes ago, Chrissn2001 said:

I think PSU's recruiting momentum has slowed down a little bit.  There's a bunch of PA kids ranked ahead of PSU kids who are wrestling at other schools.  There's also a lot of uncertainty outside of Nolf, Cenzo, Hall, and Nickal.  Once these guys are gone, the gap should close some.  

I thought the same thing. I could be wrong but the mold Cael has for replacing graduation losses hasn't been broken. Roman is the beginning of a new nucleus of studs. If the gap does close it won't be by much and will soon open back up again. PSU is in for a long run of success as long as Sanderson & Co. don't get into a plane crash.

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5 minutes ago, Cooch1 said:

I thought the same thing. I could be wrong but the mold Cael has for replacing graduation losses hasn't been broken. Roman is the beginning of a new nucleus of studs. If the gap does close it won't be by much and will soon open back up again. PSU is in for a long run of success as long as Sanderson & Co. don't get into a plane crash.

I don't see this new group maintaining the standard.  The four I mentioned replaced Nico, Taylor, Wright and Ruth.  I"m not saying it's over, but it's going to be tough.

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7 minutes ago, Chrissn2001 said:

I don't see this new group maintaining the standard.  The four I mentioned replaced Nico, Taylor, Wright and Ruth.  I"m not saying it's over, but it's going to be tough.

Agree it'll be tough, but what I see is a pattern emerging, like Iowa/Gable in the 80s.

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PSU has two huge things going for it:

  1. Cael Sanderson: a big name, an effective recruiter, and an effective coach
  2. Being the flagship public university in Pennsylvania, a state that produces more All Americans than any other state

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2 hours ago, Chrissn2001 said:

I think PSU's recruiting momentum has slowed down a little bit.  There's a bunch of PA kids ranked ahead of PSU kids who are wrestling at other schools.  There's also a lot of uncertainty outside of Nolf, Cenzo, Hall, and Nickal.  Once these guys are gone, the gap should close some.  

They said the same thing about "just wait until Taylor and Ruth graduate" I think between Cassar and/or Rasheed getting a 6th year and RBY, Nick Lee, Teske/Teasdale, Verk/Berge and then Aaron Brooks, Michael Beard, Seth Nevills, Joe Lee, Carter Starroci and Robert Howard you will get at least 3-4 studs that could be near the level of the current group of studs.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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You also have to take into account how far scholarship money can stretch. Due to the difference between in-state and out-of-state tuition, Penn State can offer more "full" scholarships to in-state wrestlers than out-of-state wrestlers. Of course every state school can do this, but you need to have a state with a lot of wrestling studs in it to make it work. It's not a surprise that Ohio State and Penn State can recruit MORE elite wrestlers with the same scholarship money than other state schools have, because of in-state tuition discounts. Perhaps Rutgers could take advantage of this as well, since NJ wrestlers seem to be rocking these days.

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21 minutes ago, PUWrestler said:

You also have to take into account how far scholarship money can stretch. Due to the difference between in-state and out-of-state tuition, Penn State can offer more "full" scholarships to in-state wrestlers than out-of-state wrestlers. Of course every state school can do this, but you need to have a state with a lot of wrestling studs in it to make it work. It's not a surprise that Ohio State and Penn State can recruit MORE elite wrestlers with the same scholarship money than other state schools have, because of in-state tuition discounts. Perhaps Rutgers could take advantage of this as well, since NJ wrestlers seem to be rocking these days.

Schnupp, Nolf and Cenzo are their only starters from PA. If you count Berge as the 149 starter.

Edited by unbiased

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10 hours ago, Cooch1 said:

Cael didn't leave for the money as much as he did to get out of Iowa and into fresh new territory where he could get a clean start. In Iowa he was in the shadow of the Brands and couldn't attract blue chip recruits like he can at PSU. He didn't want to wait around for things to change. Call it a case of impatience and good judgment.

I hadn't thought of being in Brand's shadow. Gable's shadow maybe even more so, although Gable was long gone.

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8 hours ago, Cooch1 said:

Agree it'll be tough, but what I see is a pattern emerging, like Iowa/Gable in the 80s.

Yup. It's uncanny. Only where Gable was kind of an intimidating badass figure Cael has a more funloving image. I wonder what similarities/differences there are between their coaching styles in the wrestling room, what differences there are in workouts, etc. I think Cael's PSU team is more technical than Gable's teams, but that might just be because wrestling is flashier now than it was then.

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Cael's PSU team is more technical than Gable's teams ...yes. Gable ground em down as a wrestler and it caught on. Every wrestler had his own style but the conditioning/motivation factor overwhelmed. Cael has that and technique galore.

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20 hours ago, Katie said:

PSU has two huge things going for it:

  1. Cael Sanderson: a big name, an effective recruiter, and an effective coach
  2. Being the flagship public university in Pennsylvania, a state that produces more All Americans than any other state

I would add at third. Casey on the staff. He leaves and Penn State drops a notch or two.  Quality assistants are worth their weight in gold.

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On 12/12/2018 at 6:34 PM, PSUMike said:

While I think they've been the 2 best teams for the last 5-10 years, I don't think the gap between 2 and 3 is as sizable as most think. Iowa is only a baby step behind OHST right now and will likely have a better finish come March. 

Ultimately, I don't think the formula is complicated but pulling it off consistently is. You need a big name as a coach, an RTC with a good name in association with the school, and you need your guys to perform when it matters. That will make the recruiting easier all around and you can take some of the blue chippers away from the big guys.

People are high on AZ State being able to break that ceiling to the top teir and their recruiting has taken a major uptick in the last 4 years but I'm still not sold on them. I don't feel the results have quite been up to expectations. Maybe with the new crop like Schultz, Richie Figs, etc., they'll go the Zahid route but that remains to be seen. I don't think any program right now has their ducks in a row to make that leap. I thought Oklahoma could have with Roselli and I thought Iowa State could have as well but they are still a few years and recruiting cycles away if ever.

One thing I think you're missing is being in a fertile recruiting ground for talent.  The further away a kid has to travel to attend the school the harder it becomes to land them.  That's true of any sport when it comes to recruiting.  Now, having an elite program will certainly bridge that gap and allows programs to land more of those guys who are further away but you need to hit that elite status first and being in a hotbed for recruits is what leads to that.  For tOSU and PSU being located in Ohio and Pennsylvania, arguably the two deepest states for high school wrestling talent is a HUGE advantage.  And then you have NJ east of PA as well.  Penn State's location is a huge plus, although when was the last time Cael landed an elite Ohio kid?  David Taylor?  What PSU has elevated themselves to by being a step above everybody else is the ability to pick the blue chip guys in PA that they want to go after but they also can pull in those blue chip guys from across the country.  Being on their level bridges the geography gap.

Tom and Terry at Iowa have also done a fantastic job of getting kids to Iowa from across the country.  It is not an easy thing to do and Cael and the Brands seem to be the best at doing it.  Tom Ryan has made his hay by recruiting Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the rest of the blue chip talent very close to Columbus.  

While ASU has been recruiting very well it's why I don't think they will make the jump any time soon to challenge PSU, tOSU, or even Iowa.  Sure, they have been bringing in some really nice talent from PA recently (Shields, Maruca, possibly Chlebove) but I think Chlebove would be the only blue chipper of the bunch if he even makes it to ASU.  California is a fantastic recruiting ground for ASU but it's not enough to bridge the talent gap with tOSU, PSU, or Iowa and the rest of the surrounding area for ASU is not great talent wise.  Look at RBY.  If ASU wants to compete they at least have to land the few and far between blue chippers from down the road like RBY.

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22 hours ago, Chrissn2001 said:

I think PSU's recruiting momentum has slowed down a little bit.  There's a bunch of PA kids ranked ahead of PSU kids who are wrestling at other schools.  There's also a lot of uncertainty outside of Nolf, Cenzo, Hall, and Nickal.  Once these guys are gone, the gap should close some.  

 

I'm not sure you want to use the argument of "once X, Y, or Z are gone PSU will come back down to Earth" argument.  It's the exact argument plenty of people used and believed when Taylor and Ruth were dominating and PSU was winning.  It didn't happen then and I have a feeling it won't happen when those guys are gone, either.  PSU has plenty of blue chip talent waiting to wrestle.  Almost their entire 2017 class is greyshirting.  

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8 minutes ago, StallWarning said:

 

I'm not sure you want to use the argument of "once X, Y, or Z are gone PSU will come back down to Earth" argument.  It's the exact argument plenty of people used and believed when Taylor and Ruth were dominating and PSU was winning.  It didn't happen then and I have a feeling it won't happen when those guys are gone, either.  PSU has plenty of blue chip talent waiting to wrestle.  Almost their entire 2017 class is greyshirting.  

We just gonna ignore 2015?  

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Cael being the name he is plus PA is the key to the success.

Currently only Dake, Burroughs, or Taylor, being placed at the right school will be able to overtake Cael and PSU. think Snyder has a much more left in his tank before he enters the coaching relm.

Put any one of those guys at Okie St or Iowa when Smith/Brands want to hang it up in the near future, those schools will be able to battle....Illinois also

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1 minute ago, lurshy92 said:

Cael being the name he is plus PA is the key to the success.

Currently only Dake, Burroughs, or Taylor, being placed at the right school will be able to overtake Cael and PSU. think Snyder has a much more left in his tank before he enters the coaching relm.

Put any one of those guys at Okie St or Iowa when Smith/Brands want to hang it up in the near future, those schools will be able to battle....Illinois also

You know, I remember our middle school wrestling coach, who was a teacher, took time out of a class one day to show everyone a video of Cael winning his 4th title. I can't picture anyone doing that for all those other guys mentioned. Maybe, he isn't the best American wrestler by gold medals, but I think Caels name had an aura that others have yet to achieve, and no one else may ever achieve. When he was competing there was no controversy, no attitude, just winning. On the message boards we follow Burroughs and Snyder and maybe we know better, but I still am shocked at talented youth wrestlers who know nothing about those guy's achievements. Everyone knew what Cael did. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see the next big name at a school just overtaking him. It will take a lot.

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1 hour ago, lurshy92 said:

Cael being the name he is plus PA is the key to the success.

Currently only Dake, Burroughs, or Taylor, being placed at the right school will be able to overtake Cael and PSU. think Snyder has a much more left in his tank before he enters the coaching relm.

Put any one of those guys at Okie St or Iowa when Smith/Brands want to hang it up in the near future, those schools will be able to battle....Illinois also

On the topic of sleeping giants...

Before Cael moved to PSU, the state of Pennsylvania produced more AAs than any other state, but did not have a national-champion caliber college program.  All that changed after Cael moved there.

I'm not sure there are any similar sleeping giants right now. Maybe Illinois, Cal Poly, or Rutgers? 

 

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1 hour ago, russelscout said:

You know, I remember our middle school wrestling coach, who was a teacher, took time out of a class one day to show everyone a video of Cael winning his 4th title. I can't picture anyone doing that for all those other guys mentioned. Maybe, he isn't the best American wrestler by gold medals, but I think Caels name had an aura that others have yet to achieve, and no one else may ever achieve. When he was competing there was no controversy, no attitude, just winning. On the message boards we follow Burroughs and Snyder and maybe we know better, but I still am shocked at talented youth wrestlers who know nothing about those guy's achievements. Everyone knew what Cael did. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see the next big name at a school just overtaking him. It will take a lot.

yup, the big names will eventually retire and probably go into coaching. I  think Taylor would be my choice for having the most success as a HC.  He seems more likable (in interviews anyway) . He won't have as much hardware as Burroughs or Snyder, but I'm sure they are all on the same technical level.

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