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Jimmy Cinnabon

How can another school overtake PSU and OSU?

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I am a PSU fan but am impressed by Tom Ryan and the Buckeyes.  Ryan isn't a legend in the sport like Cael yet he is able to recruit just as well as Cael and has just as much blue chip talent coming in.  OSU is the only team that I think can challenge PSU for the foreseeable future for the team title.

 

What will it take for Iowa, OK St, Minny, Cornell Michigan, and other "tier 2" schools to reach "tier 1" that is currently occupied only by PSU and OSU?

My theory is that it will take a big coaching shakeup - e.g. if John Smith retires and is replaced by a young hotshot coach like David Taylor or Dake.

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16 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I am a PSU fan but am impressed by Tom Ryan and the Buckeyes.  Ryan isn't a legend in the sport like Cael yet he is able to recruit just as well as Cael and has just as much blue chip talent coming in.  OSU is the only team that I think can challenge PSU for the foreseeable future for the team title.

 

What will it take for Iowa, OK St, Minny, Cornell Michigan, and other "tier 2" schools to reach "tier 1" that is currently occupied only by PSU and OSU?

My theory is that it will take a big coaching shakeup - e.g. if John Smith retires and is replaced by a young hotshot coach like David Taylor or Dake.

Consistently keep up in recruiting every year. Thats what it will take.

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34 minutes ago, headshuck said:

Merge two teams together.  Works every time.  

Bingo! The math on this actually checks out!  If we take the best wrestlers from Iowa(3rd last year) and Michigan(4th last year) to make a super-team they would beat at least one of those teams.... barely...

125-Lee 27pts

133-Micic 19pts

141-Turk 3.5pts

149-Sorenson 13pts

157-Kemerer 16pts

165-Marinelli 13pts

174-Amine-15pts

184-Abounader 10pts

197-Wilcke 4pts

285-Coon 19pts

The Iowa Wolverines would have scored 139.5pts, edging out Ohio States 134.5pts and falling just short of Penn State's 141.5.  Feel free to check my math, i calculated all of their points by hand.  This obviously doesn't account for certain variables but goes to show just how good OSU and PSU were last year.

Edited by SteelwoodRadio

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Ohio State's 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes are exceptional, but in all likelihood they're going to be returning less than 35 team points from NCAA's next year.   Penn State will lose 2 of the top 30 wrestlers in NCAA history, and in two years lose their two other current returning NCAA champs.

Granted, both have exceptional talent in the pipeline, but their reliance on youth over the next 2-3 seasons creates opportunity for the likes of Iowa and Michigan.  

What't it going to take long-term?  Someone to identify and be able to recruit/develop multiple transcendent talents in a single or back-to-back classes. Team titles are built on the backs of individual champions.  

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One word... WIN

Seriously... it's about two things:

a.) Recruiting

b.) Developing

BOTH PSU and OSU have the recruiting thing down, and they BOTH have become bastions for post-collegiate wrestling success.  

PSU had "Cael", and the Cael effect.  This DRAMATICALLY affected recruiting (a la Taylor/Ruth), which in turn affected future recruiting, but also development.  Steel sharpens steel, and they are Ginsu level right now.  Compound that with the Regional OTC at their facility, and boom.

tOSU had a catalyst, and if I look back, I would suggest that it was more recent, and (believe it or not) was Jaggers.  He was a tremendous recruiter, landing the biggest recruit (Logie Bear) which in turn, landed others around his weight class (NaTo, Pletcher, Mckenna, Hayes, Jordans).  BUT... Because of the ORTC, Tervel was their.  Again, he "recruited" Kyle Snyder (maybe not recruited, but tempted and showed the way, per se), and that filled out the upper weights.  

Both schools have recruiting and post-collegiate options.  

Other schools that MAY fit that bill include:

* Cornell, Minny, Okie State, Meechigan, and NC State.  

I predict that one of these schools, or more, begin to truly rival PSU/tOSU very soon.

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While I think they've been the 2 best teams for the last 5-10 years, I don't think the gap between 2 and 3 is as sizable as most think. Iowa is only a baby step behind OHST right now and will likely have a better finish come March. 

Ultimately, I don't think the formula is complicated but pulling it off consistently is. You need a big name as a coach, an RTC with a good name in association with the school, and you need your guys to perform when it matters. That will make the recruiting easier all around and you can take some of the blue chippers away from the big guys.

People are high on AZ State being able to break that ceiling to the top teir and their recruiting has taken a major uptick in the last 4 years but I'm still not sold on them. I don't feel the results have quite been up to expectations. Maybe with the new crop like Schultz, Richie Figs, etc., they'll go the Zahid route but that remains to be seen. I don't think any program right now has their ducks in a row to make that leap. I thought Oklahoma could have with Roselli and I thought Iowa State could have as well but they are still a few years and recruiting cycles away if ever.

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5 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I am a PSU fan but am impressed by Tom Ryan and the Buckeyes.  Ryan isn't a legend in the sport like Cael yet he is able to recruit just as well as Cael and has just as much blue chip talent coming in.  OSU is the only team that I think can challenge PSU for the foreseeable future for the team title.

 

What will it take for Iowa, OK St, Minny, Cornell Michigan, and other "tier 2" schools to reach "tier 1" that is currently occupied only by PSU and OSU?

My theory is that it will take a big coaching shakeup - e.g. if John Smith retires and is replaced by a young hotshot coach like David Taylor or Dake.

If you Replace John Smith there is A MAJOR DANGER of the program becoming like former powers Oklahoma and Iowa State,  FALL WAY OFF, a lot of Great Wrestlers are Not great coaches.

Current Coaches with NCAA Titles

Sanderson-6

John Smith-5

Tom Brands-3 (combined 2 teams and won first 3 years and none since)

J. Zalesky-3 (Won first 3 years with many Gable Recruited and developed Wrestlers)

Tom Ryan-1 (the year Sanderson basically sacrificed the year by redshirting most of his top point scorers)

 

Dake and D. Taylor will get TOP recruits based on their Wrestling name, they are more recent, but NOT as big a name and like almost everybody their Wrestling credentials fall short of John Smith, though Dake would be ahead as a college wrestler in credentials, but Dake has ZERO Olympic Gold Medals as does D. Taylor, The Oklahoma State Tradition also helps recruiting,  Still the odds of them being a better coach than J. Smith is close to Zero.

 

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1 hour ago, dougb said:

If you Replace John Smith there is A MAJOR DANGER of the program becoming like former powers Oklahoma and Iowa State,  FALL WAY OFF, a lot of Great Wrestlers are Not great coaches.

Current Coaches with NCAA Titles

Sanderson-6

John Smith-5

Tom Brands-3 (combined 2 teams and won first 3 years and none since)

J. Zalesky-3 (Won first 3 years with many Gable Recruited and developed Wrestlers)

Tom Ryan-1 (the year Sanderson basically sacrificed the year by redshirting most of his top point scorers)

 

Dake and D. Taylor will get TOP recruits based on their Wrestling name, they are more recent, but NOT as big a name and like almost everybody their Wrestling credentials fall short of John Smith, though Dake would be ahead as a college wrestler in credentials, but Dake has ZERO Olympic Gold Medals as does D. Taylor, The Oklahoma State Tradition also helps recruiting,  Still the odds of them being a better coach than J. Smith is close to Zero.

 

Playing devil's advocate here... but... 

Who would a 16-18 year old, who is making their immediate college choice, rather be coached by (if I'm that person):  Jake Varner, or David Taylor?  Jake Varner or Kyle Dake?  

Varner has the OLY Gold.  The other two do not.  Who wins?  

My money is that a kid coming out of high school, if those were the options, would pick Taylor or Dake almost every time.  

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When Iowa landed Spencer Lee, they got right back into the thick of contention.  He's a serious contender for 4 timer and every home match shows him stepping onto the mat in front of 12K fans at Carver Hawkeye.  The Iowa tradition lives and the chance to wrestle in front of the most rabid fan base (only Penn State rivals) has to appeal to every major high school stud.  

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1 hour ago, red blades said:

No.  There is a reason Cael left ISU for PSU.  And while I concede that Cael is an essential part of PSU's success, he is not the only factor there.


Wasn't a big part of that reason money?  Although yes you can probably relate money to good facilities which would likely be needed   And yes I know being in PA helped.

Regardless, Cael got 2nd, 3rd and 5th in his first 3 years as ISU (and as a HC at all), which I would think would qualify as "Tier 1," so IMO Cael could likely turn nearly any existing decent program into a "Tier 1" team.  Maybe not 7 out of 8 championships, but "Tier 1" nonetheless

Edited by 1032004

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1 hour ago, red blades said:

No.  There is a reason Cael left ISU for PSU.  And while I concede that Cael is an essential part of PSU's success, he is not the only factor there.

Conceding Cael as an essential part of PSU's success is like saying water is wet.

If Cael left PSU for Maryland, Oklahoma, or Sacrid Heart they would be contending for National titles within a few seasons.

Edited by BigTenFanboy

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