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unbiased

Iowa at NCAA's

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I believe their ceiling is 2nd but what I am most surprised about is the possibility that Kaleb Young could be their 3rd highest scoring wrestler behind Lee and Marinelli. Before the season started I would have never guessed this but now I am not too sure it won't happen. I would have picked Desanto, Murin, Lugo, Wilke, Warner and Stoll all to score more than him. Things sure are changing for their program as the season progresses. I really hope they have a full healthy squad in March.

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4 minutes ago, unbiased said:

Worst case scenario, 7th.

 

I don't know about that. Iowa's only got 2 guys with legit title hopes this year, Marinelli and Lee. Lee just got handled by Rivera and it's not incomprehensible that Rivera wins the NCAA title. I like Marinelli, his aggressiveness, but I highly doubt he can upset Joseph at NCAAs. So conceivably the Hawkeyes could have no champs at all. Do they have enough depth and low-mid AAs to put them to #2 if that was to happen? Unlikely.

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15 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Unless there is some massive injury, Iowa's absolute floor is 4th., IMO.  It would take a serious string of events for either Mizzou and Michigan to pass them

I'd normally agree but I was reading about an upcoming match with Michigan and was surprised at how many AA candidates Michigan has this year.

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Worth noting that Iowa placed 3rd last year after wrestling outlets had them at 6th based on rankings. 

Looking at last year, there are 2 AAs out of the lineup (5th, 4th) - this can be replicated by 2 AAs between 133, 141, 149, 157, 184, 197. I am very confident at least 2 AAs come out of that group, and possibly 3 or 4. Even accounting for a slight decrease in points scored by Spencer Lee, Marinelli should cover that by placing higher than 6th. 

Basically, Iowa is going to score a lot of points at NCAAs. There are questions, but even if Lee places 2nd he is going to score a lot (16 minimum, with bonus probably 22 or so). Warner underperforms? That's ok. They just can't have half their lineup underperform. They have 9 legitimate AA threats.

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2 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Iowa did not come close to replicating their NCAA bonus pts at Midlands. Maybe last year's NCAA Tournament was an outlier to a degree. 

Brands ripping the redshirt off Lee is the only thing that kept them in the top 5 at NCAAs last year. 

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44 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

I'd normally agree but I was reading about an upcoming match with Michigan and was surprised at how many AA candidates Michigan has this year.

125:  Spencer Lee - Drew Mattin - Obviously huge disparity of points here

133:  Stevan Micic - Austin Desanto - Lopsided in favor of Micic, but could be minimized if Micic finishes near the bottom of his probability (3rd) and Desanto maxes out his (5thish), plus Desanto is big on bonus

141:  Max Murin - Kanen Storr - I'm not totally sold on Storr, but then, I'm not totally sold on Murin, and Storr is better thusfar.  In favor of Storr.

149:  Pat Lugo - Malik Amine - Amine is tough, but not on Lugo's level, but Lugo has not shown himself to be any kind of high AA threat.  In favor of Lugo, but anyone who doesn't AA, the difference is minimal

157: Kaleb Young - Alex Pantaleo - Pantaleo has the better results and history, but he has looked actively bad this year at times.  Young has looked good at times, but has slow feet to me.  Still favor Pantaleo.

165:  Alex Marinelli - Logan Massa - Alex Marinelli has just looked much better.  Decent edge to Marinelli

174:  Mitch Bowman - Myles Amine - Huge edge to Michigan.

184:  Cash Wilcke - Reece Hughes - Huge edge to Iowa in terms of quality, although mitigated by Wilcke being a low AA threat,which doesn't score a whole lot.

197:  Jacob Warner - Jackson Striggow - Warner is the much better wrestler, but also maybe a total head case.  If you told me that Warner finished third or that he went 0-2, I wouldn't be shocked.  Big edge to Iowa, though temperamental.

HW:  Sam Stoll - Mason Parris - Parris is a true freshman wrestling the man weight.  If I'm guessing Pantaleo will be fine by the end of the year, I have to think the same for Stoll.  Advantage Iowa.

 

Iowa has the advantage at (arguably) 7 weights over Michigan.  I still feel like a lot has to go wrong for Iowa and right for Michigan for  Michigan to pass Iowa.  None of Michigan's guys are threats for huge points except for Micic and Amine.

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16 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

125:  Spencer Lee - Drew Mattin - Obviously huge disparity of points here

133:  Stevan Micic - Austin Desanto - Lopsided in favor of Micic, but could be minimized if Micic finishes near the bottom of his probability (3rd) and Desanto maxes out his (5thish), plus Desanto is big on bonus

141:  Max Murin - Kanen Storr - I'm not totally sold on Storr, but then, I'm not totally sold on Murin, and Storr is better thusfar.  In favor of Storr.

149:  Pat Lugo - Malik Amine - Amine is tough, but not on Lugo's level, but Lugo has not shown himself to be any kind of high AA threat.  In favor of Lugo, but anyone who doesn't AA, the difference is minimal

157: Kaleb Young - Alex Pantaleo - Pantaleo has the better results and history, but he has looked actively bad this year at times.  Young has looked good at times, but has slow feet to me.  Still favor Pantaleo.

165:  Alex Marinelli - Logan Massa - Alex Marinelli has just looked much better.  Decent edge to Marinelli

174:  Mitch Bowman - Myles Amine - Huge edge to Michigan.

184:  Cash Wilcke - Reece Hughes - Huge edge to Iowa in terms of quality, although mitigated by Wilcke being a low AA threat,which doesn't score a whole lot.

197:  Jacob Warner - Jackson Striggow - Warner is the much better wrestler, but also maybe a total head case.  If you told me that Warner finished third or that he went 0-2, I wouldn't be shocked.  Big edge to Iowa, though temperamental.

HW:  Sam Stoll - Mason Parris - Parris is a true freshman wrestling the man weight.  If I'm guessing Pantaleo will be fine by the end of the year, I have to think the same for Stoll.  Advantage Iowa.

 

Iowa has the advantage at (arguably) 7 weights over Michigan.  I still feel like a lot has to go wrong for Iowa and right for Michigan for  Michigan to pass Iowa.  None of Michigan's guys are threats for huge points except for Micic and Amine.

Good info here. 

I think Parris might score a bunch of points. If Massa can get back to his freshman year form, him too but yeah that’s unlikely. 

Iowa is a similar spot though. Lee, Marinelli and maybe Stoll. The major difference is Lee should score more team points than anyone, which could be an entire AA. 

The NCAA race outside of 1st is going to be exciting. I feel like it was mostly ignored last year because tOSU vs PSU was so interesting. There are 10 teams that are going to fight for 3 spots. 6 can place 2nd. 

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6 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Good info here. 

I think Parris might score a bunch of points. If Massa can get back to his freshman year form, him too but yeah that’s unlikely. 

Iowa is a similar spot though. Lee, Marinelli and maybe Stoll. The major difference is Lee should score more team points than anyone, which could be an entire AA. 

The NCAA race outside of 1st is going to be exciting. I feel like it was mostly ignored last year because tOSU vs PSU was so interesting. There are 10 teams that are going to fight for 3 spots. 6 can place 2nd. 

I agree, those things COULD happen.  But not only do good things have to happen for Michigan, bad things have to happen to Iowa.  It's possible, but unlikely, IMO.  I see Iowa as an underdog for second right now given Ohio State's high end talent and Iowa's injuries, but it's not that out of the realm of possibility.  For Ohio State, a lot depends on Pletcher and Micah, IMO.

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47 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

I agree, those things COULD happen.  But not only do good things have to happen for Michigan, bad things have to happen to Iowa.  It's possible, but unlikely, IMO.  I see Iowa as an underdog for second right now given Ohio State's high end talent and Iowa's injuries, but it's not that out of the realm of possibility.  For Ohio State, a lot depends on Pletcher and Micah, IMO.

agreed. Iowa, tOSU and OSU are in control of who places second, meaning if any of them perform optimally, nobody else can catch them. Chances are, 1 will perform optimally (like Iowa last year). When a few of those team don't perform optimally, they might be off the podium all together.

For Iowa, if Lee or Marinelli doesn't AA (could be injury, illness, or just a bad performance) they go from fighting for 2nd to fighting for a podium spot. Every team has this risk though. 

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