The official SetonHallPirate at-large projection thread

[wreferee 8]

141:

 

Julian Feikert, Oklahoma State

Ridge Kiley, Nebraska

Nathan Pennesi, West Virginia

Nicholas Hucke, Missouri

 

Hate to quibble over the bases for your projections, but it seems more recent performances in venues of greater import (eg qualifying/conference tourneys) should hold sway. As such, it seems inconceivable that a wrestler (Kiley) who failed to score ANY offensive points in his qualifying tourney should deserve a spot ahead of either the guy (Kelliher) who beat him 5-1 in the consis or the guy (Jackson) who then pinned (at 3:25) that guy (Kelliher) to finish in 7th place, one spot ahead of his original seed (8th) and one spot away from automatic qualification. (Seeded 6th, Kiley was the only seeded wrestler that failed to win a match or place in this weight class at this year's tournament.)

 

As for Pennesi's medical defaults, he is no Hamlin, and this year's Big 12 "tournament" certainly was no EIWA let alone B1G competition. Please reconsider Jackson, who can count among his "quality" wins an impressive come-from-behind victory over OSU's Mangrum in their (albeit) early dual out West, and before his season-shortening injury. Oh and btw, Jackson is now healthy. I have no comments re: Feikert and Hucke. (Scratching my head.....Feikert was at the same "qualifier" as Pennesi and Hucke wudda been too, if his team hadn't moved onward and upward to the MAC, right?)

The NCAA has narrowly defined "quality win" as a win over a wrestler who earned a gold/silver spot for the conference as of February 28th, and has prioritized that criteria ahead of all others. Kiley had three such quality wins over the course of the season (Melde, Jackson, and Spisak), Camryn Jackson had just one.

 

 

Thanks for the clarification ("The NCAA has narrowly defined "quality win" as a win over a wrestler who earned a gold/silver spot for the conference as of February 28th, and has prioritized that criteria ahead of all others.") but to further clarify my overarching concern ("...it seems more recent performances in venues of greater import (eg qualifying/conference tourneys) should hold sway.") : I believe that this situtation involving Jackson and Kiley is one that deserves more scrutiny, particularly if one considers that Jackson's previous loss (when he wasn't 100% physically) to Kiley very likely would have been avenged now that he is not fully recovered but in much better shape than before.

 

While I can certainly appreciate the "body of work" arguments, I tend to favor those favoring "peak" theories in support of having the MOST able combatants CURRENTLY competing for the most important FINISHES. Unfortunately, I cannot come up with a more appropriate analogy in another sport, but it's kinda like rewarding (because of an earlier good time in the season) a sprinter a spot in the final heat despite not coming close to the qualifying times of the others in the preliminaries for that particular meet.

 

Oh, and notfernuthinbut, Camryn's lone "quality win" was a VERY impressive come from behind win against the then SECOND-ranked Mangrum on his home mat. What are the highest rankings of opponents designated "quality wins" by these other 141-lbers being mentioned?

[rdbstc 0]

How did you come up with the choices at 165? And where does Wilson from Nebraska fit in? All of the four listed have 3 quality wins, so does wilson. Then all of the other criteria are pretty even.

[juicebox215 0]

Regardless of our opinion of what the criteria should be, the committee already has a criteria set in place and will use it to determine the qualifiers. Based off of the criteria they will use, here was my breakdown of 141. I think Penessi and Kiley are in with 2 of the next 3 getting in – Jackson, Fiekert, and Hunt. Fanta and Hucke just on the outside of that group.

 

1. Pennessi (WVU). Quality Wins (3) – Lazor (UNI), Neff (LH), Melde (Rutgers). Head-to-head wins over Feikert and Box. #13 coach’s poll, #11 rpi. Wins over other qualifiers – Goettl (ISU). 64% Win Percentage. 4th at Big 12. Common opponent wins – Lazor (Fanta, Feikert, Hucke), Shaffer (Kiley). 25 matches at 141.

 

2. Kiley (Nebraska). Quality Wins (3) – Melde (Rutgers), Spisak (UVA), Jackson (Mich). Head-to-head wins over Jackson, Hucke, and Box. Ranked #22 in coach’s poll, #33 rpi. Wins over other qualifiers – Greco (Northwestern), Goodwin (Maryland), Richardson (Wyoming). 54% win percentage. DNP Big 10. Common opponent wins – Bagheri (Jackson), Hucke (Fiekert/split, Mattingly), Spisak (Hunt). 23 matches at 141.

 

3. Jackson (Michigan). Quality Wins (1) – Mangrum (OSU). No head to head wins. Ranked #25 coach’s poll, not in rpi. Wins over other qualifiers – none. 67% win percentage. 7th Big Ten. Common opponent wins – Mangrum (Kiley, Box), Shaffer (Kiley, Fiekert), Kelliher (Kiley), Rodrigues (Fiekert/split). 15 matches at 141.

 

4. Fiekert (Ok St.). Quality Wins (3) – Pavlou (Chatt), Pearsall (PSU), Dardanes (Minn). Head-to-head wins over Hucke (split), Penessi (inj def). Wins over other qualifiers – Ford (Wyoming). Not ranked in coach’s poll, #32 rpi. 3rd at Big 12. 52% win percentage. Common opponent wins – Pearsall (Jackson, Kiley, Penessi). 32 matches at 141.

 

5. Tyler Hunt (NC St.). Quality Wins (1) – Pearsall (PSU). No head to head wins. #31 coach’s poll, #27 rpi. Wins over other qualifiers – Goodwin (Maryland). 65% win percentage. DNP at ACC. Common opponent wins – Boyle (Jackson), Goodwin (Kiley/split). 29 matches at 141.

 

6. Kevin Fanta (N. Ill.). Quality wins (0). Head-to-head wins over Hucke and Mattingly. #30 in the coach’s poll, not in the rpi. 2nd at MAC. 71% win percentage. 14 matches at 141.

 

7. Hucke (Mizzou). Quality wins (2) – Nevinger (Cornell) and Nelsen (Purdue). Split with Fiekert. 3rd at MAC. 50% win percentage. #32 coach’s poll, #26 rpi. 24 matches at 141.

 

8. Others – Box, Mattingly, Locksmith.

[Show_Me 340]

141:

 

Julian Feikert, Oklahoma State

Ridge Kiley, Nebraska

Nathan Pennesi, West Virginia

Nicholas Hucke, Missouri

 

I do respect your opinions greatly, but I can't see Hucke getting in.

 

Hope I am wrong being a Mizzou fan :D

[jenksy 0]

165...n. jones Ncsu.....when I the last time he won a match? Does he get in from Vegas results?

[SetonHallPirate 990]

165...n. jones Ncsu.....when I the last time he won a match? Does he get in from Vegas results?

If Nijel Jones gets in from Vegas results, then he's really in trouble, given that North Carolina State didn't enter a single wrestler in Vegas.

 

Jones actually has had three quality wins. Two of them were at the Keystone Classic (over Ryan Leblanc and Casey Kent), and another was over Peyton Walsh at the Southern Scuffle.

 

As for his last victory, he had two of them this past Saturday. Neither of them were anything to write home about (Randy Roden and Dominic Derobertis), but they are victories.

[rdbstc 0]

How did you come up with Jones and the rest at 165, how to their compare to Wilson from Nebraska?

[Coachp 50]

SHP, I apreciate your efforts. Could you tell me who Kolb's extra match was against, and how it went.I heard the match announced just before coverage stopped for the session. Also, could you break down his criteria. TIA

[wreferee 8]

Research very much appreciated, Juice! Thanks!

[SetonHallPirate 990]

SHP, I apreciate your efforts. Could you tell me who Kolb's extra match was against, and how it went.I heard the match announced just before coverage stopped for the session. Also, could you break down his criteria. TIA

Kolb beat Polizzi 3-2 in that match, finishing ninth.

 

As far as his criteria, he has three quality wins (over Bennett, Hecox, and Polizzi). That alone should put him in very good shape.

[SetonHallPirate 990]

Minor correction at 285 to account for some matches that I missed (the bronze standard matches, primarily because not even everybody at floor level in the building knew were going on)...specifically Spencer Johnson of Nebraska replacing Jacob Kettler of George Mason.

[mcginnij 0]

SHP,

 

What about Scotty Bacon from Boise State. He was a qualifier for the conference and he has a head to head over Wheeler from Kent State.

[jenksy 0]

165...n. jones Ncsu.....when I the last time he won a match? Does he get in from Vegas results?

If Nijel Jones gets in from Vegas results, then he's really in trouble, given that North Carolina State didn't enter a single wrestler in Vegas.

 

Jones actually has had three quality wins. Two of them were at the Keystone Classic (over Ryan Leblanc and Casey Kent), and another was over Peyton Walsh at the Southern Scuffle.

 

As for his last victory, he had two of them this past Saturday. Neither of them were anything to write home about (Randy Roden and Dominic Derobertis), but they are victories.

 

You are correct I meant Reno. Ncsu used to attend Vegas tournament but made a change. Will those 3 wins do more to get him in then bad losses though?

[HokiesFan 0]

197:

 

Conner Hartmann, Duke

Caleb Kolb, Nebraska

Alex Polizzi, Northwestern

Phillip Wellington, Ohio

Derrick Borlie, Virginia Tech

 

Unfortunately I have Borlie as either the last in or the 1st out. Do you think that they'll go both Kolb & Polizzi & give B1G 10 197's out of 33? Were the Bronze Standard points for the 9th place match that much of a factor?

[SetonHallPirate 990]

197:

 

Conner Hartmann, Duke

Caleb Kolb, Nebraska

Alex Polizzi, Northwestern

Phillip Wellington, Ohio

Derrick Borlie, Virginia Tech

 

Unfortunately I have Borlie as either the last in or the 1st out. Do you think that they'll go both Kolb & Polizzi & give B1G 10 197's out of 33? Were the Bronze Standard points for the 9th place match that much of a factor?

Yes, and no, in that order.

[NJWC 305]

I take it wreferee is a Michigan homer? Lol, wow.

[wreferee 8]

I take it wreferee is a Michigan homer? Lol, wow.

 

Proudly so, and pleased to have (in a forum such as this) an opportunity (as a true, unbiased supporter of the program) to advance any rational argument in support of all Wolverine team members past or present. So,....I'm sure we're all curious, NJWC. Please tell everyone (without a solitary "heehaw," if possible) just how (with comments such as yours above) anyone should imagine you?

[SetonHallPirate 990]

Note that my projections are based on number quality wins (specifically and narrowly defined as wins over those who earned gold/silver status on February 28th) and head-to-head competition, with some diving deeper into the numbers beyond that, as the NCAA has stated that they will give those two criteria priority. Note that there may be some surprises in there as a result.

 

125:

 

Rob Deutsch, Old Dominion

Christian Cullinan, Central Michigan

Evan Silver, Stanford

Joseph Langel, Rutgers

Got three out of four. Eric Montoya (Campbell) got in over Langel. Not overly surprised that Langel didn't get in, as he was my last man in, but am surprised that Montoya did. His only QW was over David Terao at the Scuffle, and there were at least five ahead of him on my at-large board.

[TFBJR 464]

is there a way to determine if Langel was in the mix, or if his injury precluded his selection? Just curious.

[NJWC 305]

I take it wreferee is a Michigan homer? Lol, wow.

 

Proudly so, and pleased to have (in a forum such as this) an opportunity (as a true, unbiased supporter of the program) to advance any rational argument in support of all Wolverine team members past or present. So,....I'm sure we're all curious, NJWC. Please tell everyone (without a solitary "heehaw," if possible) just how (with comments such as yours above) anyone should imagine you?

 

First of all, you're hardly an unbiased supporter. Those on the boards who have any interest can imagine me any way that they like. Did I hurt your feelings or something? Kind of a bitter response for my laughing at your biased lobbying, no?

[SetonHallPirate 990]

133:

 

Joseph Ward, North Carolina

Jimmy Morris, Rider

Vincent Dellafave, Rutgers

Cashe Quiroga, Purdue

Missed on McGuire, had Quiroga instead. Not surprised. McGuire was my first out, and Quiroga hasn't had a ton of matches this year. That had to have factored in.

[SetonHallPirate 990]

141:

 

Julian Feikert, Oklahoma State

Ridge Kiley, Nebraska

Nathan Pennesi, West Virginia

Nicholas Hucke, Missouri

4-for-4 at 141.

[MSU158 2,012]

141:

 

Julian Feikert, Oklahoma State

Ridge Kiley, Nebraska

Nathan Pennesi, West Virginia

Nicholas Hucke, Missouri

4-for-4 at 141.

 

10-12. Not bad. I would be more impressed, however, if you could predict the seeds at that high of a percentage! :D

[SetonHallPirate 990]

141:

 

Julian Feikert, Oklahoma State

Ridge Kiley, Nebraska

Nathan Pennesi, West Virginia

Nicholas Hucke, Missouri

4-for-4 at 141.

 

10-12. Not bad. I would be more impressed, however, if you could predict the seeds at that high of a percentage! :D

Ironically, I had mistakenly left Gentry off the list at 125 (not sure how...only thing I could think of is I typoed his name searching the CR and RPI, and didn't think he was eligible). He would have bumped Langel, however, so my picks would still have been 10-for-12.

[pushout 0]

No Jackson, SHP called it right.