Points Projections off Rankings

[JCG 0]

For those who like this sort of thing...just calculated the top four teams off AWN's new rankings. This is advancement and place point projection if wrestlers finish next week as ranked:

 

Oklahoma State 98.5

Penn State 95

Minnesota 82.5

Iowa 77.5

 

And, of course, those totals do not predict nor project bonus points. And the seeds coming out tomorrow probably will have a few differences from AWN.

[JCG 0]

Just for discussion, how many bonus points do you think these teams can/will score? And which team do you think has the best chance to have wrestlers do better than seeded (or not seeded)?

[TBar1977 4,533]

Just for discussion, how many bonus points do you think these teams can/will score? And which team do you think has the best chance to have wrestlers do better than seeded (or not seeded)?

 

 

Based solely on AWN rankings, the Altons are ranked lower than their ability for certain. Penn State has scored a lot more bonus than their nearest competitors the past few years, a trend I expect will continue at NCAA's.

[BRGuy 37]

okla state getting an at large bid will be huge since that will give them another chance to get a win

 

looking at awn rankings this is how i have the teams best performing

u for underperform

o for over perform

e for even

 

minny

o thorn r12

u dardanes top 5

o ndardanes top 8

o ness top 3

e zilverberg wins 2 or three

e yohn r 12

e storley top 3

e steinhouse top4

o schiller allamerican

u nelson finalist

 

psu

u mega finishing lower than 4

e conaway maybe round of 12

e pearsal as expected not much for points

e aalton at best round of 12

o dalton maybe 8th though probably will fall short

e taylor falls to dake

u brown lower thank ranking no better than 5th

e ruth wins it but no bonus in the finals

u wright wont beat kilgore and is a toss up to make the finals

u lawson stumbles and finishes lower than ranking

 

oklahoma state

e wins a match or two at 125

e morrison allamerican

o gets atlarge and wins matches

e oliver wins it all

u deiringer allamerican but not top 6

o caldwell beats yates to take 3rd

e perry is the national champ

u chionuma falls short match before r12

o rosholt finishes on the podium

o z wins a title

[IRTYTKY 67]

Just for discussion, how many bonus points do you think these teams can/will score? And which team do you think has the best chance to have wrestlers do better than seeded (or not seeded)?

 

 

Based solely on AWN rankings, the Altons are ranked lower than their ability for certain. Penn State has scored a lot more bonus than their nearest competitors the past few years, a trend I expect will continue at NCAA's.

 

But Molinaro let out Penn States secret this year about scoring bonus points. Smith, JRob, and Brands are catching on.

[JCG 0]

Interesting analysis. Can't really disagree too much on any of the individuals. But as we know, at this tournament No. 1s can end up 5th and No. 10s can win the thing. You just never know. The Altons certainly had all the credentials coming into college. Don't know why they are not performing quite at the level most people expected. But March 23 is the day you can cure all ills.

[Mr_T 0]

Here is WIN's take on the subject. http://www.win-magazine.com/2013/03/fin ... -and-iowa/

[JCG 0]

You can always argue about rankings. WIN does a good job. But they are missing points in their projections. For example, they are giving 20 to a champion. Champs score 21 (not counting bonus). Five advancement and 16 place points. they've missed one point advancement for the other placers too.

 

the 9-12 wrestlers score a minimum of 3, 13-16 get 2.5, and 16-20 score 1. So that's why WIN's point projections are a bit lower than what I ran using AWN's rankings.

[tech_fall 3]

okla state getting an at large bid will be huge since that will give them another chance to get a win

 

looking at awn rankings this is how i have the teams best performing

u for underperform

o for over perform

e for even

 

minny

o thorn r12

u dardanes top 5

o ndardanes top 8

o ness top 3

e zilverberg wins 2 or three

e yohn r 12

e storley top 3

e steinhouse top4

o schiller allamerican

u nelson finalist

 

psu

u mega finishing lower than 4

e conaway maybe round of 12

e pearsal as expected not much for points

e aalton at best round of 12

o dalton maybe 8th though probably will fall short

e taylor falls to dake

u brown lower thank ranking no better than 5th

e ruth wins it but no bonus in the finals

u wright wont beat kilgore and is a toss up to make the finals

u lawson stumbles and finishes lower than ranking

 

oklahoma state

e wins a match or two at 125

e morrison allamerican

o gets atlarge and wins matches

e oliver wins it all

u deiringer allamerican but not top 6

o caldwell beats yates to take 3rd

e perry is the national champ

u chionuma falls short match before r12

o rosholt finishes on the podium

o z wins a title

 

 

Very Bias and illogical predictions!

[Flying-Tiger 617]

Keep in mind BR is the same guy who was lecturing Penn State fans as if PSU lost the Big Ten Tournament after round 1. His hatred of the Altons simply doesn't allow him to be rational. You can either let it annoy you or be amused by it. I prefer the latter.

[Matburn155 3]

Why do people lump the Alton's together. Does anyone remember D. Alton placing 3rd last year at NCAA's. I'll admit he doesn't look quite as good this year, but he hasn't regressed and doesn't gas like his brother, and D. Alton could certainly win one before all is said and done.

[TBar1977 4,533]

Why do people lump the Alton's together. Does anyone remember D. Alton placing 3rd last year at NCAA's. I'll admit he doesn't look quite as good this year, but he hasn't regressed and doesn't gas like his brother, and D. Alton could certainly win one before all is said and done.

 

I think they get lumped together by Penn State fans who have watched them grow up. Those fans know that Andrew is very dynamic on his feet and can throw and pin just about anyone when he is at his best. Clearly he has not been at his best of late.

[JCG 0]

I don't know who BR is, but I thought his rundown was a realistic scenario and not necessrily slanted toward any school. You could run other scenarios and come with different O, E, U values, but they wouldn't necessarily make his way off base, IMO.

[Mr_T 0]

J Carl: It's like WIN doesn't take into account that the first round matches are worth 2 points. It will be interesting to see how the seeds play out after looking at the final 3 sets of rankings. 5 hours plus until everyone finds out.

[Ryan 2]

I'm shocked that J Carl picked an OK State scenario! :-)

 

Just ribbing ya J.

[JCG 0]

I didn't "pick" any scenario. Just thought his individual rundowns were reasonable for all the teams. Not even saying I agreed with all of them. I didn't, actually, but I think they werre reasonable.

Of course, a guy picked first at 174, for example, could wrestle well and finish fourth. Or at 125, those top four places could be interchangeable according to who's hot next week. Megaludis could win it or finish fourth and not wrestle much differently with either placing.