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Iowa 2020 National Champs?

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19 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

If that's all you're going to say, you might as well not reply at all.  

OK, I'll throw in a passel on top. So that is 8 outta 9 + 1 passel. That's a lot. 

Edited by TBar1977

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3 hours ago, Sstern said:

I think Kemerer is an excellent wrestler but I’m not believing he is a finalist contender up two weights with a bad back.  He didn’t look all that big at 57.  I hope he is.

I think he was really big at 157, and was rumored to really struggle with that cut last year. Part of the calculation of calling him a finalist contender is that I am anticipating Zahid will move to 184 to make room for Anthony/prepare for 86 kg. I absolutely believe that Kemerer can compete with the next tier of guys after Hall. Would I necessarily pick him to come out of the group of Amine, Smith, Kutler, or McFadden? No, but I definitely think he'll be in the mix. Also, as was noted by another poster, I think he was out this year with a knee injury, not a back injury. I think it also helps that he'll now have a full year to add a few more lbs of muscle for the weight. I think a lot of people forget how good he was his first two years because we haven't seen him in a while.

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14 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

Hey, HR is calling for Kimmer, the guy whose leg got operated on, to beat Mark Hall. And Kimmer hjas never wrestled a single match at 174 making him unproven too, so if they can make that leap then I can easily make mine. Plus, just look at the PSU track record with guys that good. I'm on solid ground. You don't have to believe me, that's OK. I'm good with that. It will probably still happen and you'll eventually come to see that I was on solid ground here. 

Kemerer is proven to be very good at the collegiate level, but he hasnt factually proven anything at 174 yet. Hr is just always posting overly optimistic stiff like that

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Plus let's also remember message board 101 - if a couple members of a fan base post something optimistic or even outlandish supporting their side, it doesn't represent the overall opinion of said fan base.  Even if the others don't speak up against it...

Edited by Gantry

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4 hours ago, qc8223 said:

I think he was really big at 157, and was rumored to really struggle with that cut last year. Part of the calculation of calling him a finalist contender is that I am anticipating Zahid will move to 184 to make room for Anthony/prepare for 86 kg. I absolutely believe that Kemerer can compete with the next tier of guys after Hall. Would I necessarily pick him to come out of the group of Amine, Smith, Kutler, or McFadden? No, but I definitely think he'll be in the mix. Also, as was noted by another poster, I think he was out this year with a knee injury, not a back injury. I think it also helps that he'll now have a full year to add a few more lbs of muscle for the weight. I think a lot of people forget how good he was his first two years because we haven't seen him in a while.

I stand corrected but I am confident I read back problem on a post here a couple of weeks ago.  That’s what I get for relying on this forum for real news.

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Mark Hall's strengths include him being crazy good in defensive scrambles. Jason Nolf is also crazy good in defensive scrambles, even though he does give up the occasional TD because he knows he will take the opponent down 5x or more in any given match. Here is another guy who was a very good scrambler, Dylan Palacio. 

Kemerer lost to Palacio and lost every single time to Nolf. Now, everyone loses to Nolf, but not everyone lost to Palacio. My take is that while Kemerer is very fundamentally sound, he isn't the best scrambler and Mark Hall would take KemDog into deep scramble water in that match. I would take Hall to win for that reason. 

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4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Mark Hall's strengths include him being crazy good in defensive scrambles. Jason Nolf is also crazy good in defensive scrambles, even though he does give up the occasional TD because he knows he will take the opponent down 5x or more in any given match. Here is another guy who was a very good scrambler, Dylan Palacio. 

Kemerer lost to Palacio and lost every single time to Nolf. Now, everyone loses to Nolf, but not everyone lost to Palacio. My take is that while Kemerer is very fundamentally sound, he isn't the best scrambler and Mark Hall would take KemDog into deep scramble water in that match. I would take Hall to win for that reason. 

I actually think Kemerer is a pretty good scrambler, definitely one of the best on the Hawks. He was able to slow down Nolf a bit with some ankle pass stuff. The loss to Palacio wasn't so much a scramble thing as not being aware on top trying to get riding time and getting caught in that peterson. The entire first period of that match was one long scramble with neither gaining much of an advantage. Also, I don't think anybody was talking about Kemerer beating Hall. I was talking about him competing for the finals slot across from Hall where he would be a solid underdog. The one thing I will say about that match is that Kemerer finishes most of his single legs by switching his head outside and cracking his opponent down. This is the one position that I've seen Hall scored on multiple times in college (see Meyer and Preisch matches his freshman year). I still would take Hall, but Kemerer's best attack does match up well with Hall's weakest defense. Still taking Hall in a close, but controlled match.

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Hall has pretty much fixed that crackdown position. 

21 minutes ago, qc8223 said:

I actually think Kemerer is a pretty good scrambler, definitely one of the best on the Hawks. He was able to slow down Nolf a bit with some ankle pass stuff. The loss to Palacio wasn't so much a scramble thing as not being aware on top trying to get riding time and getting caught in that peterson. The entire first period of that match was one long scramble with neither gaining much of an advantage. Also, I don't think anybody was talking about Kemerer beating Hall. I was talking about him competing for the finals slot across from Hall where he would be a solid underdog. The one thing I will say about that match is that Kemerer finishes most of his single legs by switching his head outside and cracking his opponent down. This is the one position that I've seen Hall scored on multiple times in college (see Meyer and Preisch matches his freshman year). I still would take Hall, but Kemerer's best attack does match up well with Hall's weakest defense. Still taking Hall in a close, but controlled match.

 

The key words in your crackdown position analysis with Hall are "his freshman year". Hall has surrendered 1 TD all year this year, and not from the crackdown position. He is not "tiny" for that weight class like he was his true freshman year, and he doesn't get over powered in that position anymore. I don't see a guy coming UP from 157  being the guy to recreate that TD sequence when nobody else is getting there on him now. 

Edited by TBar1977

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14 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Hall has pretty much fixed that crackdown position. 

 

The key words in your crackdown position analysis with Hall are "his freshman year". Hall has surrendered 1 TD all year this year, and not from the crackdown position. He is not "tiny" for that weight class like he was his true freshman year, and he doesn't get over powered in that position anymore. I don't see a guy coming UP from 157  being the guy to recreate that TD sequence when nobody else is getting there on him now. 

Has he been there much this year? You probably watch more of him than me, so you would know better, but I think the people who are good enough to score on him (Valencia and Amine) attack head inside. I would be very curious to see him wrestle from a crackdown against someone good this year. Has Kutler been able to get there? He hits a high crotch I think. I think he's more sound positionally this year than in years past, so it may be tougher for Kemerer to get there than I think anyway.

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2 hours ago, qc8223 said:

Has he been there much this year? You probably watch more of him than me, so you would know better, but I think the people who are good enough to score on him (Valencia and Amine) attack head inside. I would be very curious to see him wrestle from a crackdown against someone good this year. Has Kutler been able to get there? He hits a high crotch I think. I think he's more sound positionally this year than in years past, so it may be tougher for Kemerer to get there than I think anyway.

Like a lot of guys who wrestle someone they know they can and will beat they get a little lazy now and again and a guy will get to his leg. I have seen Hall in that same position a number of times and he typically ends up scoring the TD for himself. He has a 33 to 1 TD advantage this year in duals. Guy is super hard to finish on. 

Edited by TBar1977

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17 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Like a lot of guys who wrestle someone they know they can and will beat they get a little lazy now and again and a guy will get to his leg. Amine got there head inside just last week. And I have seen Hall in that same position a number of times and he typically ends up scoring the TD for himself. He has a 33 to 1 TD advantage this year in duals. Guy is super hard to finish on. 

That doesn't really answer my question. Two years ago there was a position (crackdown) where Hall looked vulnerable in comparison with his typical superhuman counter wrestling skills. I don't think he has been put in that position much since because the top guys at the weight the last two years typically attack head inside. My curiosity with the Kemerer match is that it will probably be the first time since his freshman year wrestling a top level guy who attacks head outside and I'd like to see if he's better in that position. Kemerer has pretty much gotten to the legs against everybody he's ever wrestled. I'd expect him to get to that crackdown against Hall at least once over the course of a possible 3 match series next year. It could be something to watch for. Still expect Hall to win, but it wouldn't surprise me if Kemerer is the biggest threat match up wise to Hall next year just because he might be able to put himself in a position to score against Hall that nobody else seems to be able to do. Btw who took him down this year?

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I can't name the matches if that is what you require, but Hall has been in that position several times the past 2 years and he is rarely scored on.

You have to understand regarding Hall's freshman year wrestling 5th? year Meyer and Preisch he is wrestling a couple really strong guys and maybe he wasn't reallyu ready to be able to keep wrestling thru that position to fight it off. He is much stronger now and he wrestles thru that position to get to a sprawl or to scramble his way to the top position. He just isn't that guy you saw two years ago. He has given up 3 TD's in duals vs 52 TD's for in duals the past two years. 

Edited by TBar1977

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1 hour ago, qc8223 said:

That doesn't really answer my question. Two years ago there was a position (crackdown) where Hall looked vulnerable in comparison with his typical superhuman counter wrestling skills. I don't think he has been put in that position much since because the top guys at the weight the last two years typically attack head inside. My curiosity with the Kemerer match is that it will probably be the first time since his freshman year wrestling a top level guy who attacks head outside and I'd like to see if he's better in that position. Kemerer has pretty much gotten to the legs against everybody he's ever wrestled. I'd expect him to get to that crackdown against Hall at least once over the course of a possible 3 match series next year. It could be something to watch for. Still expect Hall to win, but it wouldn't surprise me if Kemerer is the biggest threat match up wise to Hall next year just because he might be able to put himself in a position to score against Hall that nobody else seems to be able to do. Btw who took him down this year?

Labriola

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My take

Lee vs. Teske - 6-0 Iowa

DeSanto vs. RBY - Not enough data points right now for an accurate prediction. I think a 100% RBY gives DeSanto fits with his neutral offense but I'll give the nod to DeSanto right now in a tight one. 9-0 Iowa

Murin vs. Lee - Iowa 9-4

Lugo vs. Verkleeren - 12-4 Iowa

Young vs. Berge - Another year under his belt in the room and at a more natural weight, I'll take Berge. 12-7 Iowa

Marinelli vs. Cenzo - 12-10 Iowa

Kemererererer vs. Hall - 13-10 Penn State

Wilcke vs. Brooks - 17-10 Penn State

Warner vs. Beard - Flip a coin. For the sake of argument, I'll give it to Warner. 17-13 Penn State

Cassioppi vs. Cassar - 21-13 Penn State

6-4 for Penn State with Iowa winning 125, 133 (swing), 149, and 197 (swing). Penn State wins 141, 157 (swing), 165 (swing), 174, 184, and HWT. 

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Usually this topic comes up the day after nationals. This is a little early to be worried about next year, no?


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It’s pretty easy to have this discussion now about the future rather than the many topics discussing how good PSU is. I believe it’s fun to speculate on teams that could knock them off in a year as this year is pretty much a lock for PSU unless some pretty substantial injuries


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