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treep2000

Updated: NCAA's Prediction - Mid-February 2019

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Thought I'd start a new, and revised thread, with updated predictions.  The season has given us a lot to think about, with some unforeseen injuries, major upsets, and some guys coming out of nowhere.  So.. here we go:

125:  Rivera over Picc:  

I'm taking Rivera over Picc.  Spencer Lee has looked very very good, but extremely vulnerable this year.  He will probably take 3rd, but his road to his 2nd NC is laced with hardship and difficulty (it seems).  I thought he would make the leap... but alas, it appears he did not.

133:  Micic over Fix:  

Micic is looking fantastic.  His latest dominating victory over the #1 125'er in Rivera is just another feather in his cap.  Fix is beatable, but is proving also that he is absolutely a contender.  

141:  Yianni over McKenna:

I think Mckenna's loss to Lee was a bit flukey.  But it also shows the game plan for Yianni to win his 2nd NC.

149:  Jordan over Ashnault:

At this point, everyone at 149 is taking their lumps, or their super close calls.  Jordan's neutral game is the best at this weight in the country.  So long as he can prevent the turns, he's good for 3-5 takedowns per match.

157:  Nolf over <it doesn't matter>

Nolf has transcended NCAA wrestling.  Only an injury may derail him, and the reality is, it didn't last year.  

165:  UPSET:  Marinelli over Joseph

Calling it now.  I had Marinelli as Top 4-5 to begin the year, but am beginning to believe the MPB!  Hell... I have it too... so we at least have that in common!

174:  Hall over Valencia

Hall's technical capability and physical strength now seem to be on par with each other, for this weight.  Although I still think he is a 165'er, I think he beat Valencia this year.  Zahid has been showing vulnerabilities... major ones.

184:  MyMar over Reenan

The I see Reenan over Venz, Parker or Shak as the 2nd seed in the semi's.  MyMar over everyone not named Bo Nickal or Zahid.

197:  Nickal over Moore

Although the last match wasn't competitive, Moore is still the clear 2nd best to Nickal.

HWT:  Gable over Cassar

I'm calling it now.  Cassar appears to be beginning his peaking process.  Gable is superhuman for a true frosh HWT.  This one will be electric at both B10's AND in the NCAA finals.

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I don't agree with most of these predictions. It blows me away that so many people are counting out Spencer Lee. If he was close to 100%, even 90%, he wins no problem. I would say he wins close to a major, if not a major in the finals. He has VISIBLY looked off this year. This is the same dude who is a three-time world champ and put a beating on NaTo and Suriano in route to the title last year. What was the score of the last time he wrestled Rivera healthy? I just don't see how this isn't an obvious thing. Ya'll act like he just started to suck all of a sudden. He is not that type of guy. Coming from a PSU fan.. He is next level and will prove it once again.

 

Fix knows how to win the big matches. I think Suriano finishes 2nd. Micic 3rd.

 

141.. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nick Lee in the finals eventually losing to Yianni

 

Ashnault wins..

 

Marinelli over Joseph? Bold pick. Very bold. Good wrestler, but Joseph ALWAYS steps up when needed.

 

197.. Don't count out Rasheed. Again, PSU knows how to get it done at the tournament.

 

I guess the rest seems OK. Final results anyway. Don't necessarily agree with some of the analysis. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, treep2000 said:

Thought I'd start a new, and revised thread, with updated predictions.  The season has given us a lot to think about, with some unforeseen injuries, major upsets, and some guys coming out of nowhere.  So.. here we go:

125:  Rivera over Picc:  

I'm taking Rivera over Picc.  Spencer Lee has looked very very good, but extremely vulnerable this year.  He will probably take 3rd, but his road to his 2nd NC is laced with hardship and difficulty (it seems).  I thought he would make the leap... but alas, it appears he did not.

133:  Micic over Fix:  

Micic is looking fantastic.  His latest dominating victory over the #1 125'er in Rivera is just another feather in his cap.  Fix is beatable, but is proving also that he is absolutely a contender.  

141:  Yianni over McKenna:

I think Mckenna's loss to Lee was a bit flukey.  But it also shows the game plan for Yianni to win his 2nd NC.

149:  Jordan over Ashnault:

At this point, everyone at 149 is taking their lumps, or their super close calls.  Jordan's neutral game is the best at this weight in the country.  So long as he can prevent the turns, he's good for 3-5 takedowns per match.

157:  Nolf over <it doesn't matter>

Nolf has transcended NCAA wrestling.  Only an injury may derail him, and the reality is, it didn't last year.  

165:  UPSET:  Marinelli over Joseph

Calling it now.  I had Marinelli as Top 4-5 to begin the year, but am beginning to believe the MPB!  Hell... I have it too... so we at least have that in common!

174:  Hall over Valencia

Hall's technical capability and physical strength now seem to be on par with each other, for this weight.  Although I still think he is a 165'er, I think he beat Valencia this year.  Zahid has been showing vulnerabilities... major ones.

184:  MyMar over Reenan

The I see Reenan over Venz, Parker or Shak as the 2nd seed in the semi's.  MyMar over everyone not named Bo Nickal or Zahid.

197:  Nickal over Moore

Although the last match wasn't competitive, Moore is still the clear 2nd best to Nickal.

HWT:  Gable over Cassar

I'm calling it now.  Cassar appears to be beginning his peaking process.  Gable is superhuman for a true frosh HWT.  This one will be electric at both B10's AND in the NCAA finals.

How was Lee's win over McKenna "flukey"?

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  On 8/30/2018 at 11:27 AM, MSU158 said:

Here is a little challenge for you:  Pick Finalists for all 10 weights.  Pick the top 4 teams and margin of victory.  We can revisit it later and maybe make a 2nd one after Conferences.  Let's see how well we can project and then how well we paid attention at the end.

 

Here is mine:(We can come back and revise these once we know for sure  if and what weight guys like Fix, Steveson, Dhesi, etc. are going)

 

125:  Lee over Fix

133:  Gross over Micic

141:  Yianni over McKenna

149:  Ashnault over Lugo

157:  Nolf over Hidlay

165:  Joseph over Wick

174:  Valencia over Amine(I did this one just for you!)

184:  Martin over Parker

197:  Nickal over Moore

285:  Dhesi over Stoll

 

1. PSU by 12

2. Iowa

3. OkState

4. tOSU

These were my early(nov. 20)Adjusted for what redshirt/weight changes we know

125:  Lee over Rivera

133:  Gross over Suriano

141:  same

149: Ashnault over Jordan

157: same

165: same

174: same

184: same

197: same

285: Steveson over Stoll(unless Dhesi comes back 2nd semester, then I would have Dhesi over Steveson)

 

Scoring: same

 

Now that we know Gross isn't wrestling and neither is Kemerer that adjusts naturally while I would make a couple other changes, but not much.

125:same

133: Micic over Suriano

141: Same

149: same

157: same

165: Joseph over Marinelli

174: same(sticking with Amine as I think he ends up with the 4 seed and Hall the 1)

184: same(I think he is the best of the rest, but has to avoid the big move from Venz or Rasheed).

197: same

285: same(I am counting on Dhesi getting back into shape right at NCAA's, just like last year).

 

PSU by 30

Iowa

OkState

tOSU

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125 Rivera over Lee (I don't think Lee will be 100% this year. If he is, I think he wins.)

133 Micic over Fix

141 McKenna over Yianni 

149 Ashnault over Kolodzik

157 Nolf over Deakin

165 Joseph over Wick

174 Hall over Valencia

184 Martin over Rasheed

197 Nickal over Moore

285 Gable over White

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1 hour ago, CTex said:

I don't agree with most of these predictions. It blows me away that so many people are counting out Spencer Lee. If he was close to 100%, even 90%, he wins no problem. I would say he wins close to a major, if not a major in the finals. He has VISIBLY looked off this year. This is the same dude who is a three-time world champ and put a beating on NaTo and Suriano in route to the title last year. What was the score of the last time he wrestled Rivera healthy? I just don't see how this isn't an obvious thing. Ya'll act like he just started to suck all of a sudden. He is not that type of guy. Coming from a PSU fan.. He is next level and will prove it once again.

 

Fix knows how to win the big matches. I think Suriano finishes 2nd. Micic 3rd.

 

141.. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nick Lee in the finals eventually losing to Yianni

 

Ashnault wins..

 

Marinelli over Joseph? Bold pick. Very bold. Good wrestler, but Joseph ALWAYS steps up when needed.

 

197.. Don't count out Rasheed. Again, PSU knows how to get it done at the tournament.

 

I guess the rest seems OK. Final results anyway. Don't necessarily agree with some of the analysis. 

 

 

I agree that Lee is on another level healthy, but I'm not convinced he's going to be healthy this year. It sounds like he's been dealing with a bad illness (mono?) that has zapped his strength and energy. That isn't guaranteed to come back by March. I think most would pick him healthy, but we haven't seen it this year.

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

Micah won't win. Someone will ride him and maybe turn him. 

 

I’ve already watched the match you are referring to in my head and yes..... that all did happen but..... luckily Micah’s 6 takedowns from his feet in the 1st and 3rd periods weathered the horrific 2nd period storm you mentioned.

Edited by Aviator12

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44 minutes ago, Aviator12 said:

I’ve already watched the match you are referring to in my head and yes..... that all did happen but..... luckily Micah’s 6 takedowns from his feet in the 1st and 3rd periods weathered the horrific 2nd period storm you mentioned.

I think people overestimate how good Micah is on his feet. He's a volume shooter, but he's never scored a ton of takedowns against top guys. The late takedowns against ashnault were misleading because ashnault was being overly cautious because he was up by so much. There really isn't much evidence to suggest he's the best guy on his feet at the weight and the bottom vulnerabilities have been discussed a lot.  He's definitely a finalist contender, but we shouldn't pretend that it's only his bottom wrestling that holds him back. There are several guys at the weight who can match or better him on their feet.

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First off... thanks to everyone that commented thus far.  It's a fun exercise.

Secondly... to everyone who second guesses, or demands a revision to my predictions.  No.  They are my predictions, based purely on my own observations, and my OPINION.  You're due your opinion.  I won't challenge it.  I could care less in having a hypothetical hyperbolic virtual fisticuffs with you, when we're probably both wrong.  

Third... the beauty of these predictions is that I'm going to be wrong.  You'll also probably be wrong.  The degree of wrongness is relative.  If you wanna go pick a fight and express yourself with gusto... go to the neighborhood bar, or dojo.  Otherwise... chill... 

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20 minutes ago, qc8223 said:

I think people overestimate how good Micah is on his feet. He's a volume shooter, but he's never scored a ton of takedowns against top guys. The late takedowns against ashnault were misleading because ashnault was being overly cautious because he was up by so much. There really isn't much evidence to suggest he's the best guy on his feet at the weight and the bottom vulnerabilities have been discussed a lot.  He's definitely a finalist contender, but we shouldn't pretend that it's only his bottom wrestling that holds him back. There are several guys at the weight who can match or better him on their feet.

Respectively have to disagree here.

Does anyone besides Nolf score a ton of takedowns against top guys?

Micah has decked Kemerer and beaten Sorensen.... from takedowns on his feet.

He can take anyone down from neutral.

He’s without question in a tier right behind Nolf as being elite from neutral. What Micah also has going for him is having a very large tank which enables him to keep his furious pace all 3 periods

If Micah was just even an average mat wrestler.... he’d be the far and wide favorite to win 149.

Considering how poor his mat skills are combined with the fact he still has a shot at the top of the podium shows just how good from his feet he actually is.

Edited by Aviator12

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1 hour ago, Aviator12 said:

Respectively have to disagree here.

Does anyone besides Nolf score a ton of takedowns against top guys?

Micah has decked Kemerer and beaten Sorensen.... from takedowns on his feet.

He can take anyone down from neutral.

He’s without question in a tier right behind Nolf as being elite from neutral. What Micah also has going for him is having a very large tank which enables him to keep his furious pace all 3 periods

If Micah was just even an average mat wrestler.... he’d be the far and wide favorite to win 149.

Considering how poor his mat skills are combined with the fact he still has a shot at the top of the podium shows just how good from his feet he actually is.

That's nonsense. You have no evidence to support that. 

I do agree he has a great tank. He scored a couple takedowns late on Kemerer in their first match when it looked like he was going to get majored. If you want to argue he has the best tank at 149 I might agree with you, but he's not more skilled on his feet. He scored one takedown on Sorenson in 4 matches. He's had tough tight matches with Oliver and Verkleeren this year (and maybe O'Connor?) in addition to getting dominated by Ashnault. If you don't think Ashnault was conceding those takedowns I don't know what to tell you. Pantaleo was dominant on his feet too. 

I think there are several guys at 149 that could win takedown battles with Micah. On the flip side, I don't think there's anyone at the weight that would for sure beat him on his feet. My point was that a lot of people think he's better on his feet than he is because of how bad he is on bottom at times. He's good on his feet, but not significantly better than guys like Ashnault, Kolodzik, etc....If he wins, I think he does it with his tank, not with neutral skill.

I'll also add in a throwback to a MSU158 post from a while back. I don't think he's quite as bad on bottom as most people think. I think he gets away from 95% of the guys at the weight. He gets his rap because he gets completely dominated on the mat by dominant riders, but there aren't that many of them. Guys like Zain, Sorenson, Kemerer, and Nolf can ride just about everybody. Micah tends to look completely helpless under good riders, but usually gets out against guys who are just solid on top or worse. I don't think there are more than a couple guys at the weight that can really threaten him with top wrestling. Ashnault obviously can, but I don't think guys like Kolodzik, Gfeller, O'Connor, Oliver, Lugo, etc... are going to turn him or dominate him on the mat. A legger like Finesilver could be scary match up because he's good at slowing down matches.

Overall, typically when Micah loses, it's to guys that were also better on their feet than him in that match. I'm having a hard time thinking of matches that he lost (except for the ashnault match which I don't think was actually indicative of much) where he didn't get outscored on his feet. The only one I found was a 2-0 loss to Sorenson.

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3 hours ago, unbiased said:

Excellent question. I believe it is because McKenna beat him by such a lopsided score last year.

Image result for really gif

So in your mind, when McKenna won by a score of 7-6 last year it was a “lopsided” win. But when Lee won by a score of 7-6 this year it was “flukey” (given last year’s result). Is that about right?

Edited by Katie

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18 hours ago, CTex said:

I don't agree with most of these predictions. It blows me away that so many people are counting out Spencer Lee. If he was close to 100%, even 90%, he wins no problem. I would say he wins close to a major, if not a major in the finals. He has VISIBLY looked off this year. This is the same dude who is a three-time world champ and put a beating on NaTo and Suriano in route to the title last year. What was the score of the last time he wrestled Rivera healthy? I just don't see how this isn't an obvious thing. Ya'll act like he just started to suck all of a sudden. He is not that type of guy. Coming from a PSU fan.. He is next level and will prove it once again.

 

Fix knows how to win the big matches. I think Suriano finishes 2nd. Micic 3rd.

 

141.. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nick Lee in the finals eventually losing to Yianni

 

Ashnault wins..

 

Marinelli over Joseph? Bold pick. Very bold. Good wrestler, but Joseph ALWAYS steps up when needed.

 

197.. Don't count out Rasheed. Again, PSU knows how to get it done at the tournament.

 

I guess the rest seems OK. Final results anyway. Don't necessarily agree with some of the analysis. 

 

Isnt rasheed 184

 

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18 hours ago, Aviator12 said:

I’ve already watched the match you are referring to in my head and yes..... that all did happen but..... luckily Micah’s 6 takedowns from his feet in the 1st and 3rd periods weathered the horrific 2nd period storm you mentioned.

the score was 10-1 after one period... 6 TD's ?  do the math

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