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treep2000

Updated: NCAA's Prediction - Mid-February 2019

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Well first I need to address a couple things.

I thought Zahid Valencia would never lose in college again and I was clearly wrong. I thought he had separated himself from the 174 field enough that it would not happen.

I expected Yanni to move up to 149 and that clearly did not happen.

Now for my current predictions

125 – Lee, I still think he’ll turn it on when it matters.

133 – Micic is my pick here. I thought he was the clear #2 behind Gross but I now think he’s the clear #1.

141 – Yanni and I am still not even going to attempt to spell it.

149 – I have to go with Ashnult here. I do not think anybody can beat him at this weight.

157 – Nolf – No explanation needed

165 - It gets interesting here as I think this is the most competitive weight between three guys, Joseph, Marinelli, and Wick. I’ll go with Marinelli on purely gut feel.  

174 – I am still going with Zahid in the end.

184 – Martin, I have not seen anybody who looked like they could beat him.

197 – Nickal is still the number 1 choice but I still think 197 could be a bit different since some guys are just really big and he could more easily get caught in something at this weight than 184. Again, I have no evidence for this just a gut feel kind of thing.

285 – This is the last weight where I need to perform a mea Culpa. I did not think a true freshman would be as successful at this weight. Now he still has to navigate the BIG 10 and NCAA tournament but he could win it all.   

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125 - Lee over Vito

133 - Suriano over micic (sticking to my pick!)

141- Yianni over McKenna (no change)

149 - Ashnault over Micah (no confidence here. I actually think neither makes the finals but I can’t pick who will)

157 - Nolf over Hidlay

165 - Cenzo over Marinelli

174 - Zahid over Hall (I know. Hard for me to change my pick)

184 - Martin over bonnocorsi 

197 - Nickal over Moore

285 - Gable over Cassar

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18 hours ago, qc8223 said:

That's nonsense. You have no evidence to support that. 

I do agree he has a great tank. He scored a couple takedowns late on Kemerer in their first match when it looked like he was going to get majored. If you want to argue he has the best tank at 149 I might agree with you, but he's not more skilled on his feet. He scored one takedown on Sorenson in 4 matches. He's had tough tight matches with Oliver and Verkleeren this year (and maybe O'Connor?) in addition to getting dominated by Ashnault. If you don't think Ashnault was conceding those takedowns I don't know what to tell you. Pantaleo was dominant on his feet too. 

I think there are several guys at 149 that could win takedown battles with Micah. On the flip side, I don't think there's anyone at the weight that would for sure beat him on his feet. My point was that a lot of people think he's better on his feet than he is because of how bad he is on bottom at times. He's good on his feet, but not significantly better than guys like Ashnault, Kolodzik, etc....If he wins, I think he does it with his tank, not with neutral skill.

I'll also add in a throwback to a MSU158 post from a while back. I don't think he's quite as bad on bottom as most people think. I think he gets away from 95% of the guys at the weight. He gets his rap because he gets completely dominated on the mat by dominant riders, but there aren't that many of them. Guys like Zain, Sorenson, Kemerer, and Nolf can ride just about everybody. Micah tends to look completely helpless under good riders, but usually gets out against guys who are just solid on top or worse. I don't think there are more than a couple guys at the weight that can really threaten him with top wrestling. Ashnault obviously can, but I don't think guys like Kolodzik, Gfeller, O'Connor, Oliver, Lugo, etc... are going to turn him or dominate him on the mat. A legger like Finesilver could be scary match up because he's good at slowing down matches.

Overall, typically when Micah loses, it's to guys that were also better on their feet than him in that match. I'm having a hard time thinking of matches that he lost (except for the ashnault match which I don't think was actually indicative of much) where he didn't get outscored on his feet. The only one I found was a 2-0 loss to Sorenson.

There is tons of evidence to support that Micah Jordan is excellent on his feet and extremely lacking from the bottom position.  I have a huge sample size to judge from as I have been to most of the Ohio State home duals and follow everything I can find online.  Micah has a variety of attacks on his feet to both sides and can attack from tie ups or space.  He has a good gas tank but probably his best attribute from neutral is that he finishes quickly and cleanly and avoids funk.  While I really wish this was not the case Micah is in fact lacking from the bottom.  It is not always as evident because he often chooses neutral.  I have seen him rode and turned by some excellent top wrestlers and simply rode hard (but not turned) by average college wrestlers.  Again I wish this were not the case but it is.  

Edited by balanceseeker

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125: Lee over Rivera. I think this weight may be more competitive than people think depending on how the seeds come out. Vito is going to be a tough matchup for anyone in the quarters/semis. Bresser and Picc also shouldn’t be counted out. 

133: Micic over Fix. I think Micic has separated himself over the other 133s. I expect Fix to have a solid run through the NCAA tournament though. 

141: Yianni over Eierman. This will depend on seeds but I actually like Eiermans chances to upset McKenna if they meet in the semis. 

149: Jordan over Ashnault. I have no faith in this pick or predicting any outcomes of this weight. I’m just thinking Jordan’s motor will get him through most matches and if these two meet again I can’t imagine Jordan being turned twice this time. 

157: Nolf over Pantaleo. I think Pantaleo turns it on in March and gets to the finals (again depends on seeding here) where Nolf puts on an absolute show in his final collegiate match. 

165: Marinelli over Marstellar. This is my “bold prediction” of the tournament. Marstellar takes out Jospeh in the semis before falling to Marinelli in the finals. Again, this isn’t likely whatsoever, but it would be entertaining. 

174: Valencia over Hall. Count me as one of the people nowhere near counting Zahid out yet. This is a coin flip match to me but I just think Zahid gets it done. The 174 quarters are going to be can’t miss TV. Lewis, Amine, Joe Smith, McFadden, Lujan, Kutler, and even Labriola. Just wow. 

184: Martin over Rasheed. I think Rasheed runs through his side of the bracket before falling to Martin in the finals. Imagine how wide open this weight class could be if Martin is somehow upset in the quarterfinals though. 

197: Nickal over Moore. In what I’m predicting to be their 3rd match of the year, Nickal easily beats Moore to go out on top. 

285: Steveson over Cassar. I was tempted to take Cassar in the upset here because I think he’s the only guy in the country capable of taking out Steveson. But ultimately I think Gable’s ridiculous talent will shine through. 

Edited by goheels1812

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On 2/11/2019 at 5:22 PM, Aviator12 said:

125: Spencer Lee

133: Nick Suriano

141: Joey McKenna

149: Micah Jordan

157: Jason Nolf

165: Vincenzo Joseph

174: Zahid Valencia

184: Myles Martin

197: Bo Nickal

HWY: Gable Steveson

Suriano over micic or fix??? Yeah...

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3 hours ago, balanceseeker said:

There is tons of evidence to support that Micah Jordan is excellent on his feet and extremely lacking from the bottom position.  I have a huge sample size to judge from as I have been to most of the Ohio State home duals and follow everything I can find online.  Micah has a variety of attacks on his feet to both sides and can attack from tie ups or space.  He has a good gas tank but probably his best attribute from neutral is that he finishes quickly and cleanly and avoids funk.  While I really wish this was not the case Micah is in fact lacking from the bottom.  It is not always as evident because he often chooses neutral.  I have seen him rode and turned by some excellent top wrestlers and simply rode hard (but not turned) by average college wrestlers.  Again I wish this were not the case but it is.  

Yeah I didn't say Micah isn't great on his feet. I was pointing out that the claim that if he was competent on bottom he would be a heavy favorite was wrong. In most of his career losses, he was outwrestled in every position, not just on the mat. He's definitely way better on his feet than on bottom. However, he is not significantly better on his feet than some of the other top guys at the weight like Ashnault or Kolodzik, so to say if he could get out from under them he would be a heavy favorite is wrong. In fact, I bet he probably has a harder time getting to Kolodzik's legs than he does getting out from underneath him.

In most of his career losses, Micah hasn't been beat because he's bad on bottom. He's been beat because his opponents were better in neutral AND on the mat. He has negative takedown differentials in just about every loss I can think of. Sure, he was ridden in a lot of those matches, but he wasn't going to win them even if he could get out because the other guy was better on his feet too. 

I think he can win this year, but he wouldn't be a heavy favorite if he was better on bottom. 

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125 - Lee over...it doesn't really matter, he'll dominate everyone come March

133 - Micic over Fix

141 - Yianni over McKenna

149 - I have no idea but I'm calling a complete darkhorse no one expects ala Machiavello last season

157 - Nolf over Deakin

165 - Cenzo over Wick

174 - Zahid over Hall

184 - MyMar over Rasheed

197 - Bo over Moore

HWT - Gable over Cassar

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**** Ok, I'll bite.

125:  Lee: Will wear Rivera down with toughness.

133: Micic: When he is healthy, definitely the best.  Looks like he is finally recovered. His experience will  beat Fix, Suriano and all others as long as he is healthy.

141: Yianni: Just too all around to be stopped.  Real Fire in his belly.

149: Ashnault: Top game is murder, neutral and bottom both good enough.

157: Nolf: Unless someone poisons his food, a no brainer.

165: Cenzo; Toughness/Technique and Tenacity when needed.

174: Hall: Technique/Defense and Strength beyond what he looks like.  He finds a way.

184: Martin: Just too athletic and strong to be denied.  His experience will also be the difference.

197: Bo: Same as Nolf.

285: Steveson: The man-child is simply amazing.

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