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Housebuye

Who is going to screw up seeding this year?

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This year we will have quite a few guys seeded far lower than their skill and resume suggest. 

Weigel might be the worst offender. He is going to have just 5 D1 matches by conference and could very well take a loss, as his two remaining matches are against Wyatt Koelling and Warner. Winning conferences would give him a bump  

Sean Fausz too. He will have 9 D1 matches at 125 at best by conferences with a loss to cole Verner and wins against Moisey and Hayes. He is unlikely to win conferences and get that bump with mueller back

tariq Wilson too

who else?

 

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Kennedy Monday if he comes back this year. Last year in his first match he took out the 2 seed Lavallee. If he comes back at 165 I suspect he will place 2nd at the ACC tournament (assuming Lewis from VT wins it) and then some highly seeded wrestler won’t like seeing Monday as their first match at the NCAA tourney. 

Edited by goheels1812

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11 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Won't he be at top 6 seed? He's 15-0 at 125, and he's likely to win out and be a 22-0 conference champ at the weight.  

Will Vito get seeded that high?  He has been ranked outside top 10.  Hasn’t beaten anyone top 10.  Won’t beat anyone in top 10 given remaining schedule.  

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6 minutes ago, nom said:

Will Vito get seeded that high?  He has been ranked outside top 10.  Hasn’t beaten anyone top 10.  Won’t beat anyone in top 10 given remaining schedule.  

If he ends up undefeated at 125 he will be seeded top 8 and maybe better, depending on how other guys do. 

Keep in mind the coaches use ranking services for the coaches poll. The ranking services will bump Vito up if he goes undefeated (besides the loss to his teammate at 133 early in the year)

Edited by Housebuye

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11 hours ago, nom said:

Will Vito get seeded that high?  He has been ranked outside top 10.  Hasn’t beaten anyone top 10.  Won’t beat anyone in top 10 given remaining schedule.  

I think he will.  If he isn't, it would be somewhat unprecedented.  I looked back 6 or 7 years and couldn't find a single example of an undefeated wrestler from a major program being seeded outside the top 8.  My guess is Vito comes in at #6, worst case scenario #8.  

If he's #8, that's a bad scenario for whichever of Lee or Rivera gets the 1 seed.  

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On 2/12/2019 at 9:09 PM, lu_alum said:


How high will he be seeded if he only has a conference tourney on his resume?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Great question as Joe will have very FEW matches at 165, the only matches considered for Seeding. 

His NCAA Seed would solely be based on how he fared at Big 12's vs Ashworth, Romero, & Steiert (all likely Top 12 Seeds). 

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2 hours ago, Show_Me said:

Great question as Joe will have very FEW matches at 165, the only matches considered for Seeding. 

His NCAA Seed would solely be based on how he fared at Big 12's vs Ashworth, Romero, & Steiert (all likely Top 12 Seeds). 

It’s so risky to drop to 165. Won’t be have to steal a spot? This is a solid weight at Big12s. He could legitimately not qualify. I know they will probably give him an at large bid, but I’m not sure if I support that. 

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8 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

It’s so risky to drop to 165. Won’t be have to steal a spot? This is a solid weight at Big12s. He could legitimately not qualify. I know they will probably give him an at large bid, but I’m not sure if I support that. 

Wouldn’t he have to wrestle a certain amount of matches at 165 to qualify for an at large bid?

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3 minutes ago, Ogalthorpe Haywood said:

Wouldn’t he have to wrestle a certain amount of matches at 165 to qualify for an at large bid?

I think you only need 2/5 criteria to be eligible, but he may only have 1 if he doesn’t steal a spot  

1. RPI (won’t have this due to lack of matches)

2. Winning % (will probably not have this.  Not sure, but I think this requires 17 minimum matches 

3. Coaches poll (won’t have this as he won’t have the 5 required matches at 165)

4. Quality wins (Not sure of specific criteria but I don’t think he will have this because if he did, he would steal a spot)

5. Placed within 1 of qualifying spot (will most likely have this. Big12 will have 3 slots I think, so he would just need to place 4th)

So...you may be right. Probably not relevant as he will most likely steal a spot and one of the guys who earned a spot but placed 4th will get it. 

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4 hours ago, Show_Me said:

Great question as Joe will have very FEW matches at 165, the only matches considered for Seeding. 

His NCAA Seed would solely be based on how he fared at Big 12's vs Ashworth, Romero, & Steiert (all likely Top 12 Seeds). 

Correct.  Other posts re Joe Smith were talking about his ability to qualify for the Bronze standard and get a bid to nationals if he does not qualify automatically in the conference tourney.  My initial post was more specific to his seed potential at NCAA.  Keep in mind that, for the first time, the entire 33-man bracket is seeded this year.  This is possible because the seeding process over the past few years has essentially become a mathematical equation, based on the following criteria (which is the formula used to evaluate potential at-large candidates who meet the Bronze standard - meeting 2-of-5 items listed by Housebuye above).  I don't see Smith faring too well on this matrix.

SeedProcess.JPG.b11500af0ec3c54c4e38a2849f5ace14.JPG

Everything is spelled out on page 13 of the NCAA Wrestling Pre-Championships manual:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/wrestling/d1/men/2018-19DIMWR_PreChampsManual.pdf 

Edited by lu_alum

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