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7 minutes ago, Katie said:

There aren’t many NCAA wrestlers who have been as dominant as Nolf. The ones who have been as dominant (Askren, Taylor, Ruth, Dake, etc.) have been able to at least make a world team.

Whether Nolf medals in a different style of wrestling is anyone’s guess. Personally, I think that once he adjusts to freestyle he’ll be among the world’s best. 

That's a peculiar list. It's certainly lacking in depth from a historical perspective.  Of course there is uncertainty whether Nolf (or anyone else) will win a world medal, that uncertainty is why we rely on probability.  And it's widely an empirical issue, but I suspect the correlation between NCAA dominance and world medals is pretty weak. 

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6 hours ago, Lurker said:

The d1 athletes he is wrestling right now are at least three levels below those he would have to beat to win a world medal. I’m willing to make any wager you would like on your statement. 

Yeah of course he isn't wrestling world level guys in college. I didn't base my prediction on watching Nolf pin the MSU kid. 

Obviously Nolf medaling is a long shot. There are a ton of variables. Is it really that crazy to you though? Domestically his biggest threat is James Green, who had surgery and since then has looked much worse than before. He has taken losses to guys he wouldn't have two years ago. Around Green's peak he won a close match vs Nolf. Nolf has steadily improved and Green has done the opposite. 

At worlds in 2018, 70kg wasn't the strongest weight. Also, this is the year before the Olympics, so the top contenders will mostly move into Olympic weights so they can qualify the weight for their country for the Olympics plus earn seeding points. The weight will clear out. 

Last year's medalists were:

Gazi (he would be afavorite to repeat, but could be moving weights)

Batirov (cannot believe this guy made the world finals. He has never medaled at senior worlds and he won a european silver in 2002. Good for him, but making the finals demonstrates how much draws matter)

Zurabi (The other world champ in the mix. He won in 2017 and got a bronze in 2018. Would be another serious test for Nolf but could be moving weights. He wrestled 65kg at the 2016 Olympics. Georgia also has a world silver returning at 74kg, although he had the best draw possible with the top 3 guys on the other side of the bracket. Zurabi could win this spot if he wants to, but it would hard the team)

Franklin Marin (came out of nowhere to win Bronze for Cuba. Gave James Green a tough match at beat the streets. I bet you Nolf would wear him out. He gets tired and Nolf doesn't)

There are other solid guys at worlds too, but I think Nolf would beat all but Gazi and Zurabi, neither of which may be at the weight. 

 

With all that said...what claim is so outrageous?

 

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2 hours ago, ThorsteinV said:

That's a peculiar list. It's certainly lacking in depth from a historical perspective.  Of course there is uncertainty whether Nolf (or anyone else) will win a world medal, that uncertainty is why we rely on probability.  And it's widely an empirical issue, but I suspect the correlation between NCAA dominance and world medals is pretty weak. 

If you’re arguing that we need good data before we can translate Nolf’s NCAA career to his chances of making a world team, then I of course agree. I feel confident that such data would show his chances are good. Do you disagree? 

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7 minutes ago, Katie said:

If you’re arguing that we need good data before we can translate Nolf’s NCAA career to his chances of making a world team, then I of course agree. I feel confident that such data would show his chances are good. Do you disagree? 

The initial claim was that Nolf would win a world medal this year.  And you can read my statement was about the relationship between NCAA dominance and world medals... not world team membership.  

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9 minutes ago, ThorsteinV said:

The initial claim was that Nolf would win a world medal this year.  And you can read my statement was about the relationship between NCAA dominance and world medals... not world team membership.  

Well I guess you weren’t responding to my post then. 

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25 minutes ago, Katie said:

Well I guess you weren’t responding to my post then. 

I guess not. I assumed your post was evolving along with the thread, I didn't take the time to realize you were changing the criteria 

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There is no way that Nolf can win a world medal this year.  First off, his non stop style and outrageous athleticism won’t help him at all. Secondly, there is no way he is going to improve between now and Worlds.  He is stuck at the same level as he was in prior years.  Lastly, NLWC is unable to get guys to the next level.  Unfortunately, Nolf will only be known for his folk style dominance.  He has no chance in freestyle.  

 

 

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19 minutes ago, tightwaist said:

There is no way that Nolf can win a world medal this year.  First off, his non stop style and outrageous athleticism won’t help him at all. Secondly, there is no way he is going to improve between now and Worlds.  He is stuck at the same level as he was in prior years.  Lastly, NLWC is unable to get guys to the next level.  Unfortunately, Nolf will only be known for his folk style dominance.  He has no chance in freestyle.  

 

 

Too funny....

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Yeah of course he isn't wrestling world level guys in college. I didn't base my prediction on watching Nolf pin the MSU kid. 
Obviously Nolf medaling is a long shot. There are a ton of variables. Is it really that crazy to you though? Domestically his biggest threat is James Green, who had surgery and since then has looked much worse than before. He has taken losses to guys he wouldn't have two years ago. Around Green's peak he won a close match vs Nolf. Nolf has steadily improved and Green has done the opposite. 
At worlds in 2018, 70kg wasn't the strongest weight. Also, this is the year before the Olympics, so the top contenders will mostly move into Olympic weights so they can qualify the weight for their country for the Olympics plus earn seeding points. The weight will clear out. 
Last year's medalists were:
Gazi (he would be afavorite to repeat, but could be moving weights)
Batirov (cannot believe this guy made the world finals. He has never medaled at senior worlds and he won a european silver in 2002. Good for him, but making the finals demonstrates how much draws matter)
Zurabi (The other world champ in the mix. He won in 2017 and got a bronze in 2018. Would be another serious test for Nolf but could be moving weights. He wrestled 65kg at the 2016 Olympics. Georgia also has a world silver returning at 74kg, although he had the best draw possible with the top 3 guys on the other side of the bracket. Zurabi could win this spot if he wants to, but it would hard the team)
Franklin Marin (came out of nowhere to win Bronze for Cuba. Gave James Green a tough match at beat the streets. I bet you Nolf would wear him out. He gets tired and Nolf doesn't)
There are other solid guys at worlds too, but I think Nolf would beat all but Gazi and Zurabi, neither of which may be at the weight. 
 
With all that said...what claim is so outrageous?
 
It's outrageous because the guy hasn't made the team yet.

He is wrestling and absolutely dominating inferior competition.

Is he working on clean finishes for his td arsenal? (Snyder)

Or is he showing off his folkstyle age group moves? (Zain)

Can he focus on freestyle without reverting to folkstyle in tough situations?

Can he defend a crotch lift, especially when he dives in with reckless abandon?

Time will tell.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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9 hours ago, cjc007 said:

It's outrageous because the guy hasn't made the team yet.

He is wrestling and absolutely dominating inferior competition.

Is he working on clean finishes for his td arsenal? (Snyder)

Or is he showing off his folkstyle age group moves? (Zain)

Can he focus on freestyle without reverting to folkstyle in tough situations?

Can he defend a crotch lift, especially when he dives in with reckless abandon?

Time will tell.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

This is what America does.

2018 USA medalists

Kyle Dale, David Taylor, Kyle Snyder, Jden Cox, Geiz, Joe Colon - all medaled their first time making the team 

2017

Add in James Green (made team in 2015, won bronze) and Thomas Gilman (made team in 2017, won silver) was and you can say every medal in 2017 worlds from the US had medaled in their first time making the team  

how about the Olympics in 2016?

same thing

 it everyone who makes the team medals in their first year, but almost everyone who medals for the US in freestyle, including every single one for the past 3 years, medaled their first time out

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15 hours ago, ThorsteinV said:

That's a peculiar list. It's certainly lacking in depth from a historical perspective.  Of course there is uncertainty whether Nolf (or anyone else) will win a world medal, that uncertainty is why we rely on probability.  And it's widely an empirical issue, but I suspect the correlation between NCAA dominance and world medals is pretty weak. 

Make a claim. Don’t stand behind “the correlation is weak”. Set the criteria for your correlation. What does dominance mean? Look at the data and make your prediction 

will Nolf make the team?

will Nolf medal in 2019?

also simply using dominance is silly. What about the tons of other variables? The recent USA success? The fact that the US does better in our first year out? The room he is in? Coaches? Training partners? Etc

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There is no way that Nolf can win a world medal this year.  First off, his non stop style and outrageous athleticism won’t help him at all. Secondly, there is no way he is going to improve between now and Worlds.  He is stuck at the same level as he was in prior years.  Lastly, NLWC is unable to get guys to the next level.  Unfortunately, Nolf will only be known for his folk style dominance.  He has no chance in freestyle.  
 
 


What an uneducated take..


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25 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Make a claim. Don’t stand behind “the correlation is weak”. Set the criteria for your correlation. What does dominance mean? Look at the data and make your prediction 

will Nolf make the team?

will Nolf medal in 2019?

also simply using dominance is silly. What about the tons of other variables? The recent USA success? The fact that the US does better in our first year out? The room he is in? Coaches? Training partners? Etc

I detect hidden hostility. 

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10 hours ago, cjc007 said:

It's outrageous because the guy hasn't made the team yet.
 

Talking on a wrestling message board about how a great wrestler will do at the next level is outrageous? Umm, no. 

 

10 hours ago, cjc007 said:

Or is he showing off his folkstyle age group moves? (Zain)
 

You know, even at 0-2 vs World competition I would expect you to realize those were two very highly skilled wrestlers and those matches were actually close. Zain is better at free than your dismissive post indicates. 

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31 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Make a claim. Don’t stand behind “the correlation is weak”. Set the criteria for your correlation. What does dominance mean? Look at the data and make your prediction 

will Nolf make the team?

will Nolf medal in 2019?

also simply using dominance is silly. What about the tons of other variables? The recent USA success? The fact that the US does better in our first year out? The room he is in? Coaches? Training partners? Etc

You're mostly agreeing with me; I was responding to a post citing Nolf's NCAA dominance as support for potential to win a world medal this year.  Like you, I agree there are a variety of other important explanatory variables. 

I think my view is clear: I do not think Jason Nolf will win a world medal this year. I'm not entirely sure what the 70 kg field will look like domestically.  I would assume Green would still be the favorite - I know someone said the Nolf-Green freestyle match was close but it really wasn't that close. Green was winning 7-1 with a little over a minute to go then he put on the skates.  

While technically correct your list of guys that "medaled their first time making the team," is a bit misleading for the present discussion.  Dake, Taylor, and Colon all wrestled senior level tournaments for years before making a world team.  And everyone knows Kyle Snyder was focusing on freestyle his entire college career.  

Ultimately, however, I agree your initial statement wasn't nearly as outrageous once you put it in broader context.  

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17 minutes ago, ThorsteinV said:

You're mostly agreeing with me; I was responding to a post citing Nolf's NCAA dominance as support for potential to win a world medal this year.  Like you, I agree there are a variety of other important explanatory variables. 

I think my view is clear: I do not think Jason Nolf will win a world medal this year. I'm not entirely sure what the 70 kg field will look like domestically.  I would assume Green would still be the favorite - I know someone said the Nolf-Green freestyle match was close but it really wasn't that close. Green was winning 7-1 with a little over a minute to go then he put on the skates.  

While technically correct your list of guys that "medaled their first time making the team," is a bit misleading for the present discussion.  Dake, Taylor, and Colon all wrestled senior level tournaments for years before making a world team.  And everyone knows Kyle Snyder was focusing on freestyle his entire college career.  

Ultimately, however, I agree your initial statement wasn't nearly as outrageous once you put it in broader context.  

Here is that match from 2 years ago.

 

I have no problem taking Nolf all day long he next time they wrestle. Green wasn't just on skates at the end, he was gassing. I expect Nolf to wrestle with high pace for the entire match next time. 

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4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I have no problem taking Nolf all day long he next time they wrestle. Green wasn't just on skates at the end, he was gassing. I expect Nolf to wrestle with high pace for the entire match next time. 

Of course you will take Nolf all day long, I doubt that surprises anyone.  You can call it whatever you want but when you're leading 7-1 and 9-3 late in the 3rd period, some wrestlers have a propensity to step off the gas pedal

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41 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

You know, even at 0-2 vs World competition I would expect you to realize those were two very highly skilled wrestlers and those matches were actually close. Zain is better at free than your dismissive post indicates. 

You're certainly correct.  This also illustrates why it might be viewed as outrageous to believe a wrestler will win a world medal in their 6th or 7th freestyle tournament.  Such claims tend to dismiss the quality and skill of wrestlers across the globe.  

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41 minutes ago, ThorsteinV said:

You're certainly correct.  This also illustrates why it might be viewed as outrageous to believe a wrestler will win a world medal in their 6th or 7th freestyle tournament.  Such claims tend to dismiss the quality and skill of wrestlers across the globe.  

I think it is more an indication of 

1)Nolf was close 2 years ago to our best guy at 70Kg in a year when that guy won World Silver  2) Said best guy from 2 years ago looked less stellar last year losing in Round of 16 to Mongolia, so maybe he is trending down  3) Nolf is 2 years older, stronger and better so he is trending up  4) A lot of guys world wide won't wrestle 70Kg this year because they want to move towards an Olympic weight class

Housebuy's statement may or may not come true, but it is hardly outrageous for someone of Nolf's ability. 

Edited by TBar1977

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1 hour ago, pish6969 said:

 


What an uneducated take..


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I dunno.  Show me any data where dominant NCAA wrestlers with outragous athletic ability have become world level wrestlers...and I might agree with you.

 

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16 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Yeah of course he isn't wrestling world level guys in college. I didn't base my prediction on watching Nolf pin the MSU kid. 

Obviously Nolf medaling is a long shot. There are a ton of variables. Is it really that crazy to you though? Domestically his biggest threat is James Green, who had surgery and since then has looked much worse than before. He has taken losses to guys he wouldn't have two years ago. Around Green's peak he won a close match vs Nolf. Nolf has steadily improved and Green has done the opposite. 

At worlds in 2018, 70kg wasn't the strongest weight. Also, this is the year before the Olympics, so the top contenders will mostly move into Olympic weights so they can qualify the weight for their country for the Olympics plus earn seeding points. The weight will clear out. 

Last year's medalists were:

Gazi (he would be afavorite to repeat, but could be moving weights)

Batirov (cannot believe this guy made the world finals. He has never medaled at senior worlds and he won a european silver in 2002. Good for him, but making the finals demonstrates how much draws matter)

Zurabi (The other world champ in the mix. He won in 2017 and got a bronze in 2018. Would be another serious test for Nolf but could be moving weights. He wrestled 65kg at the 2016 Olympics. Georgia also has a world silver returning at 74kg, although he had the best draw possible with the top 3 guys on the other side of the bracket. Zurabi could win this spot if he wants to, but it would hard the team)

Franklin Marin (came out of nowhere to win Bronze for Cuba. Gave James Green a tough match at beat the streets. I bet you Nolf would wear him out. He gets tired and Nolf doesn't)

There are other solid guys at worlds too, but I think Nolf would beat all but Gazi and Zurabi, neither of which may be at the weight. 

 

With all that said...what claim is so outrageous?

 

All I said was, and all I’m saying is, I’m willing to take that wager against Nolf winning a medal this year. I just don’t see it. I will give you that in my previous statement, I was not thinking about the fact that it is a pre Olympic Year and 70 will most likely be cleared out. But I think that also depends on each countries selection procedures. For ours it’s a big deal to medal in the Olympic class as far as 2020 selection. Other countries are not the same and therefore the idea to clear out to the Olympic weight this year may not be as much of an impact in other countries. We’ll see. 

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