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1 hour ago, tightwaist said:

I dunno.  Show me any data where dominant NCAA wrestlers with outragous athletic ability have become world level wrestlers...and I might agree with you.

 

I realize this was a completely genuine request, so here's some data: 39.29% of three time NCAA champs went on to win a world medal.  Winning 4 NCAA titles is almost a guarantee for a world medal though.   

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4 hours ago, ThorsteinV said:

You're mostly agreeing with me; I was responding to a post citing Nolf's NCAA dominance as support for potential to win a world medal this year.  Like you, I agree there are a variety of other important explanatory variables. 

I think my view is clear: I do not think Jason Nolf will win a world medal this year. I'm not entirely sure what the 70 kg field will look like domestically.  I would assume Green would still be the favorite - I know someone said the Nolf-Green freestyle match was close but it really wasn't that close. Green was winning 7-1 with a little over a minute to go then he put on the skates.  

While technically correct your list of guys that "medaled their first time making the team," is a bit misleading for the present discussion.  Dake, Taylor, and Colon all wrestled senior level tournaments for years before making a world team.  And everyone knows Kyle Snyder was focusing on freestyle his entire college career.  

Ultimately, however, I agree your initial statement wasn't nearly as outrageous once you put it in broader context.  

I preferred when we were in a fight. This is way too reasonable. 

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2 hours ago, ThorsteinV said:

I realize this was a completely genuine request, so here's some data: 39.29% of three time NCAA champs went on to win a world medal.  Winning 4 NCAA titles is almost a guarantee for a world medal though.   

World gold specifically, which is pretty cool

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14 minutes ago, ionel said:

So what's the percentage of 4x who got a world medal first year out?

I think the correct answer is 25%.  Although, it could be argued that it's zero percent since Cael didn't technically win a world medal his first year out.  I'd give him the benefit of the doubt since he didn't get the opportunity to compete in Tehran in 2002.

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