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Nolf at 70 kg

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51 minutes ago, qc8223 said:

I completely disagree with this assessment. I think people only remember the weird stuff he hits, but he only hits that stuff on mid to low level competition. Against top level competition he is incredibly dominant on his feet using conventional attacks. In fact, even in the matches where he hits weird stuff that catches everybody's attention, we forget that he has usually scored 6-7 takedowns at that point. Watch his match with Deakin this year. Just complete dominance on his feet against a junior world silver and a guy who has had some success at the senior level too. You have to actually watch his matches with top level guys where he tightens up the screws and wrestles seriously. He toys with the other guys, but against guys like Deakin, Berger, Lavallee, Hidlay, etc... he is incredibly dominant and fundamental. I would recommend watching his matches with Kemerer. Kemerer is one of the best leg attackers in the country. He gets to absolutely everyone's legs. In 3 matches, I think he's touched Nolf's legs once. Meanwhile, Nolf is all over his legs. He scrambles with average opponents to make the match interesting for himself and to experiment. When it's time to wrestle seriously, he's as strong fundamentally as anybody in the country. He's an excellent handfighter, has reliable attacks to both sides, and can hold great position when he needs to. I think his freestyle prospects are really high. 

Maybe you didn't read my whole post. I mentioned I thought Green (a world level medalist) may still have enough in the tank to hold the spot for 1 more year. 
Then its likely Nolf's spot, and after some tweaking to his game, he may end up on the podium....  
I'm not knocking his style, or claiming he has 0 take-downs.
Just saying he doesn't currently have reliable leg attacks and stellar defense, to score and prevent being scored on in FS on the world stage. 
He is fairly new to FS (basically his college years) and still needs to develop attacks. He 100000% can, he just hasn't.
For the immediate transition guys who have had INSTANT world-level success, I would say  the main unifying factor is stellar defense. They don't give up 4 knowing they can score 5 eventually. Nolf is a terrific wrestler, and he is such a force in college, kids lose before they get out there, they're instantly down 8 and desperate. 
He will struggle with guys like Green and Kennedy and whoever else if it's take down for take down, right NOW he isn't head and shoulders over America, much less THE WORLD. 
That said, neither was Taylor when he first came out... 
Dake had the defense but not the offense. 
So on and so forth.... Not saying he's a bust, literally saying, he may start off 2nd in line, and work his way to the #1 spot and eventually a World Medal.

Edited by spladle08

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And Note*
Taking down college kids that definitely won't be factors at the senior level, when you have 0 fear because you can rollie-pollie out of anything. is different that standing across from a guy 3, 4, 5 years removed from college, multiple time AA,  or somebody who hasn't wrestled folkstyle at all in their lives, who has been working on attacks they can finish clean without giving up any exposure points..... 
I mean it's just different. Hell. Somebody on here when Zain made his world team, bet me he would win the worlds even money. 
I offered the guy 3:1 or 4:1 he wouldnt place. The guy said NO, I WANT EVEN MONEY HE WINS IT ALL. 
I know you PSU fans get rowdy, but it's just a different game. 

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Nolf is a beast but he's going into the next level where everyone is a beast. No doubt Nolf gets to everyone's legs, but I think he gets there 90% of the time through just constant motion/scrabling, sheer willpower and grit rather than through really clean attacks. Here's another way of thinking about it: watching Burroughs his senior year, I thought that he would be an immediate factor on the world stage just by the cleanness, quickness and power of his neutral game. The explosiveness of it reminded me of Kenny Monday and I remember thinking, "that double is going to cause havoc at the next level". I don't quite see that obvious "he's got it" factor with Nolf yet but I am excited about his prospects internationally.

In fairness, I think Burroughs was the only guy I thought was going to have immediate success internationally. Nearly every uber-stud, 3 or 4-timer, or whatever the accolade has struggles right out of the gate. I think Nolf will be no exception but I do think his ceiling is much higher than someone like Retherford. 

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2 hours ago, spladle08 said:

Maybe you didn't read my whole post. I mentioned I thought Green (a world level medalist) may still have enough in the tank to hold the spot for 1 more year. 
Then its likely Nolf's spot, and after some tweaking to his game, he may end up on the podium....  
I'm not knocking his style, or claiming he has 0 take-downs.
Just saying he doesn't currently have reliable leg attacks and stellar defense, to score and prevent being scored on in FS on the world stage. 
He is fairly new to FS (basically his college years) and still needs to develop attacks. He 100000% can, he just hasn't.
For the immediate transition guys who have had INSTANT world-level success, I would say  the main unifying factor is stellar defense. They don't give up 4 knowing they can score 5 eventually. Nolf is a terrific wrestler, and he is such a force in college, kids lose before they get out there, they're instantly down 8 and desperate. 
He will struggle with guys like Green and Kennedy and whoever else if it's take down for take down, right NOW he isn't head and shoulders over America, much less THE WORLD. 
That said, neither was Taylor when he first came out... 
Dake had the defense but not the offense. 
So on and so forth.... Not saying he's a bust, literally saying, he may start off 2nd in line, and work his way to the #1 spot and eventually a World Medal.

I understood your first post, and I wasn't disagreeing with the whole thing. I was contesting one of your supporting points where you said Nolf dominates by scrambling and not by just running up takedowns. That isn't true. He only scrambles like that against outmatched opponents. There's nobody else at the college level that is so consistently dominant on their feet like Nolf except for maybe Valencia, but he's been down this year (compared to last year). If that is truly your metric for immediate success (as you stated it was), Nolf should be your top prospect for immediate success. For the record, I wasn't making the claim that he would come in and dominate, and I don't expect him to. I think he'll need a year or two to adjust like most guys, especially because I don't think he has a big freestyle background. 

Your reasoning in this response is different than your first post. I think you're absolutely right that defense is a huge factor for immediate success. That's why guys like Gilman can immediately step in and have success on the world stage whereas guys like Taylor (who I think is the best model for analyzing Nolf's prospects because their styles are so similar) took a couple years to adjust, although finding the right weight was big for him too. I think Nolf will struggle more with defense and tactics than offense. You say he doesn't have reliable leg attacks, but I don't think that's true. Even in the freestyle matches he lost 2 years ago he scored a bunch of points. His defense and match management just wasn't there yet. Overall, we mostly agree. I was just pointing out that Nolf isn't just a scrambler and he has as good if not better an offensive arsenal as any of our prospects and it will suit him well. 

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I understood your first post, and I wasn't disagreeing with the ...

 

Fair homie. Excited to see what he does, and nice reasonable argument. Big things coming for USA wrestlinf for years to come

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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  • 70kg/154 lbs.
    1. James Green, Lincoln, Neb. (Sunkist Kids)

    2. Frank Molinaro, State College, Pa. (Titan Mercury WC)
    3. Jason Nolf, Yatesboro, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
    4. Richie Lewis, Edison, N.J. (Scarlet Knights WC)
    5. Kyle Ruschell, Madison, Wisc. (New York AC)
    6. Jason Chamberlain, Fresno, Calif. (Titan Mercury WC/Valley RTC)
    7. Hunter Stieber, Norman, Okla. (Titan Mercury WC/Oklahoma RTC)
    8. Dylan Ness, Bloomington, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
    9. Chase Pami, Philadelphia, Pa. (Sunkist Kids/Pennsylvania RTC)
    10. Mario Mason, Morris Plains, N.J. (Lehigh Valley WC)

this is the latest from the home page. Perhaps new rankings will come out in the near future?

Have Nolf and Green wrestled a FS match? I'd take Nolf to beat him, i just think he's able to outscore Green. And his length would give Molinaro fits.

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On 2/23/2019 at 1:29 PM, DuckFor2 said:
  • 70kg/154 lbs.
    1. James Green, Lincoln, Neb. (Sunkist Kids)

    2. Frank Molinaro, State College, Pa. (Titan Mercury WC)
    3. Jason Nolf, Yatesboro, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
    4. Richie Lewis, Edison, N.J. (Scarlet Knights WC)
    5. Kyle Ruschell, Madison, Wisc. (New York AC)
    6. Jason Chamberlain, Fresno, Calif. (Titan Mercury WC/Valley RTC)
    7. Hunter Stieber, Norman, Okla. (Titan Mercury WC/Oklahoma RTC)
    8. Dylan Ness, Bloomington, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
    9. Chase Pami, Philadelphia, Pa. (Sunkist Kids/Pennsylvania RTC)
    10. Mario Mason, Morris Plains, N.J. (Lehigh Valley WC)

this is the latest from the home page. Perhaps new rankings will come out in the near future?

Have Nolf and Green wrestled a FS match? I'd take Nolf to beat him, i just think he's able to outscore Green. And his length would give Molinaro fits.

David Carr needs to be added somewhere around the middle of that list I would think. 

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so Green 9-8. Assuming that match was some time ago.

 

Now most would agree Nolf has improved and most of us would agree that Green due to injuries and latest results has not really improved all that much. I'd take Nolf to beat everyone on that list.

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For me, the most instructive match to watch relating to Nolf and FS is his loss against Jimmy Kennedy a year and half ago.  It was obvious in that match that some of Nolf's skills are somewhat neutralized in FS.  Nolf threw everything he could against Kennedy, but Kennedy's positioning was so solid throughout.  Once Kennedy adjusted to Nolf early on, he controlled the match after that.  Nolf still has a ways to go when it comes to FS

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My first instinct is that Green will be too much this year, but Green really hasn't wrestled very well since 2017 worlds. In 2017, he looked like a guy who was going to contend for a medal through the cycle, but since then, not so much. Green is still the favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets knocked off, and if he does, I think it's Nolf based on the field. Remember, he doesn't have a bye to Final X this year. Nolf will have a shot at him at multiple events.

Is Molinaro expected to stay up at 70 kg this year? He's a guy that could be a match up problem for Nolf given the way that Kennedy match played out. However, I think we may be making too much out of the Kennedy match. It was 2 years ago. That's a long time to make adjustments.

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PSU Mike, I hope you are right about Jason having a higher ceiling than JG, that would be great news for us. ( in terms of replacing a multiple World medal winner with someone better ). I would love to see Jason, win a bunch of World Medals and Titles. However, JG, has one thing in his arsenal that I am not sure Jason has, and that is speed. And as we all have seen, we know what JB has been able to do with that speed. So I guess we will have to wait and see how this plays out, and I am not sure who will win, but I do like the fact that if JG isn't up to the task anymore, we have guys like GHulk and Jason ( as well as some others ), waiting to step in. 

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I don't take a whole lot from the Nolf Kennedy match. That was a 6-6 match with 30 seconds to go where Kennedy led only on criteria and Nolf had to get a score late. Kennedy played solid defense and when Nolf took a desperation shot in the final 10 seconds Kennedy got a TD that otherwise probably doesn't happen. So a 6-6 match doesn't say a whole lot, and even less when you consider it was 2 years ago.

Also, according to the other thread Green and Molinaro just lost their first round matches at Kolov. 

Edited by TBar1977

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

I don't take a whole lot from the Nolf Kennedy match. That was a 6-6 match with 30 seconds to go where Kennedy led only on criteria and Nolf had to get a score late. Kennedy played solid defense and when Nolf took a desperation shot in the final 10 seconds Kennedy got a TD that otherwise probably doesn't happen. So a 6-6 match doesn't say a whole lot, and even less when you consider it was 2 years ago.

 Also, according to the other thread Green and Molinaro just lost their first round matches at Kolov. 

Quarterfinals, not first round.  

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Nolf has a high ceiling but also has a low floor. I would not be surprised to see him win a world championship, but I also would not be surprised if he never makes a world team. For context of just how tough it is to make the world team, it took Dake and Taylor years and when they finally made it the made the most of their respective opportunities, and Dieringer is still seeking his first opportunity. I feel that those three are the most similar in accolades to Nolf, and Taylor and Ringer are his closest contemporary comparisons - seniors in college, likely 3x'ers/ Hodge/OW, nigh-unstoppable in folkstyle, suspect freestyle skills and senior-level competition results, large area for rapid improvement, etc.

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A lot of great points!  We all kind of have our own algorithms about combining folkstyle careers with international careers and coming up with g.o.a.t. lists.  I have Nolf super high on my folkstyle list.  That next level is a tough adjustment, but he and Bo are in DT air, and I thought it would take 30 years to do that.  I think his learning curve may surprise some of you.

 

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I’ll say I wouldn’t be upset if I were wrong at 70. I would actually love to see Nolf get it and see what he would do at WC “right now”. Would be entertaining as hell!

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I think Nolf can catch Green, but how does he deal with a guy with the strength and horsepower of Molinaro?  Molinaro has the ability to turn the match into 2 or 3 total scoring opportunities, against almost anybody in the world. That's a tough matchup for Nolf.  

And unless he gets hooked up with DT's pharmacists, 74kg is a pipe dream.  

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I think Nolf can catch Green, but how does he deal with a guy with the strength and horsepower of Molinaro?  Molinaro has the ability to turn the match into 2 or 3 total scoring opportunities, against almost anybody in the world. That's a tough matchup for Nolf.  
And unless he gets hooked up with DT's pharmacists, 74kg is a pipe dream.  
I can't remember when Frank gave up 15 points in a bout.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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By results of this weekend I’m not feeling too confident in my assessment....although a 4-3 loss to Zukaev is not something to go in panic mode about. 

Edited by Lurker

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