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CrewWrestling

OKST: Rogers, Smith, Smith, Geer

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I’ve been trying to figure out the logic in moving these guys back down in weight & possibly bumping out a 2XAA in either Rogers or Joe Smith. It seems to me that OKST would be in a better position if Geer is the odd man out versus Rogers, Smith, or Smith. Jacobe has a better resume at 84 than Geer & he’s a returning AA. Joe is a 2XAA & while I personally don’t see him AA’ing at 74 this year, I think he has a better shot at 65 but it wouldn’t be a shocker if he did AA 6-8th at 74. Then there’s Rogers who is also a 2XAA, & I actually think he has just as good a chance to AA at 65 as Joe Smith would have. 

 

In the end end I just can’t see why you bump any one of those 3 out for a 1X qualifier. Where is he ranked seeded if he is indeed the starter at 84 @ BIG12’s?

Edited by CrewWrestling

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15 minutes ago, CrewWrestling said:

I’ve been trying to figure out the logic in moving these guys back down in weight & possibly bumping out a 2XAA in either Rogers or Joe Smith. It seems to me that OKST would be in a position if Geer is the odd man out versus Rogers, Smith, or Smith. Jacobe has a better resume at 84 than Geer & he’s a returning AA. Joe is a 2XAA & while I personally don’t see him AA’ing at 74 this year, I think he has a better shot at 65 but it wouldn’t be a shocker if he did AA 6-8th at 74. Then there’s Rogers who is also a 2XAA, & I actually think he has just as good a chance to AA at 65 as Joe Smith would have. 

 

In the end end I just can’t see why you bump any one of those 3 out for a 1X qualifier. Where is he ranked seeded if he is indeed the starter at 84 @ BIG12’s?

I don't think Coach Smith would agree with your analysis.  I am guessing that in his mind

1 - Jo Smith is a threat to make the finals & even win the weight at 165 as opposed to a 5 to 8 finish at 174.  I do think the top 4 guys at 174 are better than anyone at 165. (In other words I do not think that ViJo, Marinelli, Wick, or any other 165 would win if the bumped up against Hall, Zahid, Lewis or Amine) Rodgers could break in for a lower AA finish but he is more likely a R12 guy.

2 - Jacobe has a better chance of AAing at 174 than 184 - I tend to agree here too.  I don't think he can get into the top 4 at 174 but the weight isn't as deep after that as 184 is and Jacobe won't be undersized.  A 5 to 8 finish is much more likely at 174.

3 - Geer probably has as good a chance of making the podium at 184 as Rodgers has at 165.  Both guys are 12 to 15 type guys at those weights.

Now that is all pure speculation on my part but if that is what Coach Smith is thinking than all I can say is that I agree with him. I'm sure he'll be glad to hear that.

 

Edited by lu1979

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8 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

If I was John I'd let ranking matches sort it out. I'm not privy to what happens in OSU's room, but if Geer is beating one of those guys I'd send Geer at that weight.

And what if Jacobe already beat Joe at 174, don't know but what if? 

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I would think Geer goes to 184 and competes with Ja Smith for that spot.

Big 12 will lose allocations, since 1st time back at lower weights is Big 12 tourney.  I don't think they can be listed until back at that weight.

If one gets hurt in the mean time, are they even eligible for an at large bid?  Seems very risky.

Weight cuts this late in the season and multiple day weigh ins seems like a recipe for disaster

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2 minutes ago, ionel said:

Could be what's happening, we will see.

Would suck though, huh? I think Joe has a higher chance of placing at 165 or 174 than any of the other guys. Honestly I can't see John sitting hit boy, but I'd settle the whole kaboodle with ranking matches (which could be unwise).

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10 minutes ago, buf87 said:

I would think Geer goes to 184 and competes with Ja Smith for that spot.

Big 12 will lose allocations, since 1st time back at lower weights is Big 12 tourney.  I don't think they can be listed until back at that weight.

If one gets hurt in the mean time, are they even eligible for an at large bid?  Seems very risky.

Weight cuts this late in the season and multiple day weigh ins seems like a recipe for disaster

 

How many guys have already qualified for OSU? Picc and Fix have earned an "at large" at the very least I'd think, based on their records this year. Probably Derek White as well.

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32 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I don't think Coach Smith would agree with your analysis.  I am guessing that in his mind

1 - Jo Smith is a threat to make the finals & even win the weight at 165 as opposed to a 5 to 8 finish at 174.  I do think the top 4 guys at 174 are better than anyone at 165. (In other words I do not think that ViJo, Marinelli, Wick, or any other 165 would win if the bumped up against Hall, Zahid, Lewis or Amine) Rodgers could break in for a lower AA finish but he is more likely a R12 guy.

2 - Jacobe has a better chance of AAing at 174 than 184 - I tend to agree here too.  I don't think he can get into the top 4 at 174 but the weight isn't as deep after that as 184 is and Jacobe won't be undersized.  A 5 to 8 finish is much more likely at 174.

3 - Geer probably has as good a chance of making the podium at 184 as Rodgers has at 165.  Both guys are 12 to 15 type guys at those weights.

Now that is all pure speculation on my part but if that is what Coach Smith is thinking than all I can say is that I agree with him. I'm sure he'll be glad to hear that.

 

I guess my thinking on Joe Smith is he’s not as good as rankings are projecting. I think he’s got a shot at 6-8th at 165 or 174, I don’t think he can sniff a win from 1-5 at either weight based on current rankings...not sure I would ever consider him a threat to make the finals at 165 but I do agree the top 4 at 174 are better than the 65 contingent. 

 

What is is bugging me is that by bumping everyone down and sliding Geer back in you’re bumping out an AA and likely a 2XAA for a previous qualifier in Geer, who doesn’t have the same level of quality wins as Jacobe at the weight. As well, if it’s Rogers you’re bumping out a Sr who’s produced at NCAA’s multiple times. The caveat to bumping Rogers out is if he’s still injured more than we know/have seen & isn't able to perform at his previous years NCAA level. 

 

I think Jacobe has a possibility of being Top 4 at 184 but if not Top 8 almost certainly. I don’t see Geer as an AA but agree he’s probably 12-16. I’d much rather roll the dice that Rogers is Top 8 at 165 considering he’s figured out a way to do that twice in his career already. 

Edited by CrewWrestling

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19 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

 

How many guys have already qualified for OSU? Picc and Fix have earned an "at large" at the very least I'd think, based on their records this year. Probably Derek White as well.

I think the only thing that matters is perhaps who hasn't generated an AQ for the B12.  Weigel looks like the only one if the 17 or whatever match count can include at higher weight.  With Sheets generating a spot, they really should not have trouble getting all 10 in, but sure injury/stuff happens.  But if injured at end of season an at large doesn't necessarily help.

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6 minutes ago, ionel said:

I think the only thing that matters is perhaps who hasn't generated an AQ for the B12.  Weigel looks like the only one if the 17 or whatever match count can include at higher weight.  With Sheets generating a spot, they really should not have trouble getting all 10 in, but sure injury/stuff happens.  But if injured at end of season an at large doesn't necessarily help.


What do you think of Sheets? He's a tough kid, I bet if he could generate more offense he'd be a R12/low AA threat.

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23 minutes ago, CrewWrestling said:

I guess my thinking on Joe Smith is he’s not as good as rankings are projecting. I think he’s got a shot at 6-8th at 165 or 174, I don’t think he can sniff a win from 1-5 at either weight based on current rankings...not sure I would ever consider him a threat to make the finals at 165 but I do agree the top 4 at 174 are better than the 65 contingent. 

 

What is is bugging me is that by bumping everyone down and sliding Geer back in you’re bumping out an AA and likely a 2XAA for a previous qualifier in Geer, who doesn’t have the same level of quality wins as Jacobe at the weight. As well, if it’s Rogers you’re bumping out a Sr who’s produced at NCAA’s multiple times. The caveat to bumping Rogers out is if he’s still injured more than we know/have seen & isn't able to perform at his previous years NCAA level. 

 

I think Jacobe has a possibility of being Top 4 at 184 but if not Top 8 almost certainly. I don’t see Geer as an AA but agree he’s probably 12-16. I’d much rather roll the dice that Rogers is Top 8 at 165 considering he’s figured out a way to do that twice in his career already. 

They started the season very likely that 2 AAs would not make the tournament lineup.  As it is will be 1 at most (well due to Boo injury you could say 2).  So I dont think that's the metric they are worried about.

And did you see Joe against Hall and McFadden?  Of 4 losses, believe 2 were last second takedowns & one was hands to the face point.

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2 minutes ago, TobusRex said:


What do you think of Sheets? He's a tough kid, I bet if he could generate more offense he'd be a R12/low AA threat.

Well sure if he suddenly turns into sophmore Mike he will rack up a bunch of bonus points on his way to taking Nolf to overtime in the finals.  But yeah more likely will score some team points but short of AA.

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I think the only person outside of the OSU room who knows what is happening is Daniel Lewis.  Im guessing last week during the match when he looked at J. Smith he was telling him....  Shhhhhh, don't won't I won't put what your doing with your lineup out on the message board.  :)

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1 minute ago, scramble said:

I think the only person outside of the OSU room who knows what is happening is Daniel Lewis.  Im guessing last week during the match when he looked at J. Smith he was telling him....  Shhhhhh, don't won't I won't put what your doing with your lineup out on the message board.  :)

That match vs Smith was brutal. If Lewis can bring that to the mat with Zahid/Hall at NCAAs I'd say he has a very legit chance at a title.

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5 minutes ago, ionel said:

They started the season very likely that 2 AAs would not make the tournament lineup.  As it is will be 1 at most (well due to Boo injury you could say 2).  So I dont think that's the metric they are worried about.

And did you see Joe against Hall and McFadden?  Of 4 losses, believe 2 were last second takedowns & one was hands to the face point.

And have you seen that Joe since? I think people are overestimating Joe's ceiling based on one match with David McFadden. Hall wrestles most top 10 wrestlers close like that, so I don't read too much into it. Joe has pretty much been the same guy the last few years. He's very good, but he's not elite, or he hasn't shown himself to be elite yet. His sophomore year, he pretty much lost to all of the top guys he wrestled except Palacio at NCAAs, but Palacio had one of the most comical "I don't care anymore" Saturday morning performances in recent memory. Outside of that Palacio win, his best wins were 3-2 wins against Jake Short and Mitch Finesilver that year. He lost that year to Kemerer 2x, Berger, Nolf, and Kutler. This year, he had a great match against McFadden, but has taken losses to Lujan and Kutler since then, and hasn't looked that great in his wins. Again, he's very good, but to speculate that he can beat Vincenzo at this point is very premature.

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12 minutes ago, qc8223 said:

And have you seen that Joe since? I think people are overestimating Joe's ceiling based on one match with David McFadden. Hall wrestles most top 10 wrestlers close like that, so I don't read too much into it. Joe has pretty much been the same guy the last few years. He's very good, but he's not elite, or he hasn't shown himself to be elite yet. His sophomore year, he pretty much lost to all of the top guys he wrestled except Palacio at NCAAs, but Palacio had one of the most comical "I don't care anymore" Saturday morning performances in recent memory. Outside of that Palacio win, his best wins were 3-2 wins against Jake Short and Mitch Finesilver that year. He lost that year to Kemerer 2x, Berger, Nolf, and Kutler. This year, he had a great match against McFadden, but has taken losses to Lujan and Kutler since then, and hasn't looked that great in his wins. Again, he's very good, but to speculate that he can beat Vincenzo at this point is very premature.

I dont think he can beat Cenzo, think he would have a better chance against Hall.  Given what he has looked like cutting down from 174 I'm not convinced he will make 165.  I was simply relaying how he is capable of wrestling.

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38 minutes ago, qc8223 said:

And have you seen that Joe since? I think people are overestimating Joe's ceiling based on one match with David McFadden. Hall wrestles most top 10 wrestlers close like that, so I don't read too much into it. Joe has pretty much been the same guy the last few years. He's very good, but he's not elite, or he hasn't shown himself to be elite yet. His sophomore year, he pretty much lost to all of the top guys he wrestled except Palacio at NCAAs, but Palacio had one of the most comical "I don't care anymore" Saturday morning performances in recent memory. Outside of that Palacio win, his best wins were 3-2 wins against Jake Short and Mitch Finesilver that year. He lost that year to Kemerer 2x, Berger, Nolf, and Kutler. This year, he had a great match against McFadden, but has taken losses to Lujan and Kutler since then, and hasn't looked that great in his wins. Again, he's very good, but to speculate that he can beat Vincenzo at this point is very premature.

I couldn’t agree more with this...been saying this about both Joe Smith & McFadden since their entry into the season halfway through the regular season. Both have been given more credit than deserved, McFaddens best win on the season comes against the #14/15 ranked wrestler, outside of that he has wrestled one top 10 guy...that’s Joe Smith who oh yeah hasn’t beaten anyone significant other than McFadden. 

 

That said I still believe OKST stands a better chance of collecting more AA’s leaving it as Rogers, Joe, Jacobe than any other scenario. 

Edited by CrewWrestling

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There is a rule that to be considered for a coaches ranking, they must compete in a match at that weight in last 30 days.  

This is not a problem if they already have and RPI and Win %age at the weight.

Both Smiths and Geer will have the win %age, but I don't think any have enough matches for an RPI and won't wrestle the lower weight until Big 12's, so they can't get an allocation.

If something happens and they get hurt before stealing a spot, are the eligible to steal a spot? 

 

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1 hour ago, TobusRex said:

 

How many guys have already qualified for OSU? Picc and Fix have earned an "at large" at the very least I'd think, based on their records this year. Probably Derek White as well.

I would think Picc, Fix, Brock, Gfeller,  Sheets. Roger(165), Jo Smith(174), Ja Smith(184), Weigel and Geer(197) and White.  Actually all 10 would get an allocation at previous weights.  Sheets would be borderline.

Only 8 at new plan, eliminating both Smiths at 165/174

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31 minutes ago, buf87 said:

There is a rule that to be considered for a coaches ranking, they must compete in a match at that weight in last 30 days.  

This is not a problem if they already have and RPI and Win %age at the weight.

Both Smiths and Geer will have the win %age, but I don't think any have enough matches for an RPI and won't wrestle the lower weight until Big 12's, so they can't get an allocation.

If something happens and they get hurt before stealing a spot, are the eligible to steal a spot? 

 

To be eligible for an at-large, they'd need 2 of the following:

.700 win %

Top 33 RPI

Top 33 CR (which is revised post conference tournament so Jacobe and Geer could enter the rankings)

.700 win % against all competition

1 win against a wrestler who qualified by earning a preallocated position

Qualifying event placement 1 below automatic qualification

 

Of course, that just gets you in the at-large pool. You then have to be one of the best to earn a bid. Jacobe's wins over Skatzka  and Seldon Wright might be enough depending on what others do around the country. An injury to Geer would be costly. Then again, any injury at a conference tournament is a serious problem.

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