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CrewWrestling

OKST: Rogers, Smith, Smith, Geer

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Barring something freaky,  the Ok State guys will steal a spot.  Where it hurts is the Big 12 fringe guy that earned an allocation, but falls back into the at large pool because of the late changes by Ok State

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1 hour ago, CrewWrestling said:

I couldn’t agree more with this...been saying this about both Joe Smith & McFadden since their entry into the season halfway through the regular season. Both have been given more credit than deserved, McFaddens best win on the season comes against the #14/15 ranked wrestler, outside of that he has wrestled one top 10 guy...that’s Joe Smith who oh yeah hasn’t beaten anyone significant other than McFadden. 

 

That said I still believe OKST stands a better chance of collecting more AA’s leaving it as Rogers, Joe, Jacobe than any other scenario. 

I'm not convinced they wouldn't be better off leaving Geer at 197 too. Obviously, a top form Weigel is a way better option, but when is the last time we saw that. We'll know a lot more about Weigel after the Warner match.

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If Joe Smith started the year at 165, I would probably feel a lot better about him than I do now. He's a guy with documented weight issues, dropping to a very deep weight class. Not only that, his first competition at the weight will be conferences. There are 3 guys there that can absolutely beat him if he's not in good form. How many will the Big 12 get at 165?

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Smith doesn't care about allocations or seeds.   He is rolling the dice.  He hopes Joe Smith is a finalist/champion(Rogers is not), Geer is a low AA(wash with JASmith), JaSmith is a low AA(wash with JoSmith) and Weigel is a solid AA(Geer is not).  That is 20 points or more difference.

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2 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

Smith doesn't care about allocations or seeds.   He is rolling the dice.  He hopes Joe Smith is a finalist/champion(Rogers is not), Geer is a low AA(wash with JASmith), JaSmith is a low AA(wash with JoSmith) and Weigel is a solid AA(Geer is not).  That is 20 points or more difference.

That's a pretty good argument for it. "Hopes" is the key word there. It's definitely their best chance to have a big tournament, but it greatly increases their chances of falling apart too.

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Just now, qc8223 said:

That's a pretty good argument for it. "Hopes" is the key word there. It's definitely their best chance to have a big tournament, but it greatly increases their chances of falling apart too.

If you go to Reno or CKLV, you will see Smith is no stranger to the gaming tables :)

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21 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

Smith doesn't care about allocations or seeds.   He is rolling the dice.  He hopes Joe Smith is a finalist/champion(Rogers is not), Geer is a low AA(wash with JASmith), JaSmith is a low AA(wash with JoSmith) and Weigel is a solid AA(Geer is not).  That is 20 points or more difference.

 

Per his interviews here at the end of the season he has said a number of times that allocations & seeds have to factor into this decision. That said I think he’d be less concerned by seed as long as his guys get to the show. 

If John Smith is hoping Joe is a finalist/champion he has missed the ball which maybe that’s true given his judgement could be clouded given it’s his son. That said I think Coach Smith has to know that Joe is at best 6-8th at either weight 65/74. He’s nowhere close to beating any of the top 4/5 guys at either weight. So finalist/champ no chance. I would think there is a far better argument that Jacobe could be a finalist at 184 than Joe at 165  

Rogers 6-8th, Joe 6-8th, Jacobe 2-8th, makes more sense to me than Rogers/Joe 6-8th at 165, Jacobe 7-8th at 174, and likely no AA for Geer. 

I do agree it may be smart to keep Geer at 97 over Weigel given he may still be hurt. That said Coach Smith said in an interview he feels he has to give Weigel a Sr a shot if he’s healthy, interesting the same thought doesn’t seem to apply to Rogers. Also Weigel has a style that can win & place even when he’s hurt, 4pt tilts favors guys like Weigel & Picc. 

Edited by CrewWrestling

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1 hour ago, Plasmodium said:

If you go to Reno or CKLV, you will see Smith is no stranger to the gaming tables :)

Ran into a guy who was a dead ringer for John Smith at the Hard Rock Casino in Catoosa a couple months ago. The "clone", however, was older and greyer. Maybe it was Lee Roy, but the resemblance was unmistakable.

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1 hour ago, CrewWrestling said:

 

Per his interviews here at the end of the season he has said a number of times that allocations & seeds have to factor into this decision. That said I think he’d be less concerned by seed as long as his guys get to the show. 

If John Smith is hoping Joe is a finalist/champion he has missed the ball which maybe that’s true given his judgement could be clouded given it’s his son. That said I think Coach Smith has to know that Joe is at best 6-8th at either weight 65/74. He’s nowhere close to beating any of the top 4/5 guys at either weight. So finalist/champ no chance. I would think there is a far better argument that Jacobe could be a finalist at 184 than Joe at 165  

Rogers 6-8th, Joe 6-8th, Jacobe 2-8th, makes more sense to me than Rogers/Joe 6-8th at 165, Jacobe 7-8th at 174, and likely no AA for Geer. 

I do agree it may be smart to keep Geer at 97 over Weigel given he may still be hurt. That said Coach Smith said in an interview he feels he has to give Weigel a Sr a shot if he’s healthy, interesting the same thought doesn’t seem to apply to Rogers. Also Weigel has a style that can win & place even when he’s hurt, 4pt tilts favors guys like Weigel & Picc. 

You're an idiot if you truly think he's nowhere close to the top 5 guys at either weight.  He's entered 2 NCAA tournaments and finished 7th and 4th but you've decided he's nowhere close to Josh Shields, Chance Marstellar, or Jordan Kutler (who he lost to on a hands to the face call 2-1).  I wouldn't favor Smith against any of those guys, but he's firmly in every one of those matches.  

As for why they're switching, I'd imagine it's about doing what's best for individual wrestlers over doing what's best for the team.  For better or worse I can't imagine Smith forcing guys into weight classes in an effort to get 2nd or 3rd place. 

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15 minutes ago, boconnell said:

You're an idiot if you truly think he's nowhere close to the top 5 guys at either weight.  He's entered 2 NCAA tournaments and finished 7th and 4th but you've decided he's nowhere close to Josh Shields, Chance Marstellar, or Jordan Kutler (who he lost to on a hands to the face call 2-1).  I wouldn't favor Smith against any of those guys, but he's firmly in every one of those matches.  

As for why they're switching, I'd imagine it's about doing what's best for individual wrestlers over doing what's best for the team.  For better or worse I can't imagine Smith forcing guys into weight classes in an effort to get 2nd or 3rd place. 

Perhaps I chose the wrong wording in saying he’s nowhere close to beating the top 4/5 at either weight. I have no doubt Joe Smith would keep it close on the scoreboard with most of the higher ranked wrestlers at those weights. That said, I believe he loses to every one of them all things considered. If he is the guy at 165 I’d pick him to finish 3rd/4th at Big 12’s which would have him in the same spot as Rogers heading into NCAAs. 

After thinking about what’s happening with the descents I have to believe that Geer must be beating Jacobe in the room, and Jacobe must be beating Joe, and Joe must be beating Rogers. I think if they continue with this weight drop they’ll end up with 1AA between the 3 weights, if I had to choose which guy that would be I’d say Jacobe at 174. 

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1 hour ago, TobusRex said:

Ran into a guy who was a dead ringer for John Smith at the Hard Rock Casino in Catoosa a couple months ago. The "clone", however, was older and greyer. Maybe it was Lee Roy, but the resemblance was unmistakable.

If you are saying folks often confuse you and Spencer Lee ;) then I could see how those same folks might confuse Joe & Lee Roy (been grey a long time & different build).   Now Pat is  probably greying & similar build/size/look. 

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2 hours ago, CrewWrestling said:

 

Per his interviews here at the end of the season he has said a number of times that allocations & seeds have to factor into this decision. That said I think he’d be less concerned by seed as long as his guys get to the show. 

If John Smith is hoping Joe is a finalist/champion he has missed the ball which maybe that’s true given his judgement could be clouded given it’s his son. That said I think Coach Smith has to know that Joe is at best 6-8th at either weight 65/74. He’s nowhere close to beating any of the top 4/5 guys at either weight. So finalist/champ no chance. I would think there is a far better argument that Jacobe could be a finalist at 184 than Joe at 165  

Rogers 6-8th, Joe 6-8th, Jacobe 2-8th, makes more sense to me than Rogers/Joe 6-8th at 165, Jacobe 7-8th at 174, and likely no AA for Geer. 

I do agree it may be smart to keep Geer at 97 over Weigel given he may still be hurt. That said Coach Smith said in an interview he feels he has to give Weigel a Sr a shot if he’s healthy, interesting the same thought doesn’t seem to apply to Rogers. Also Weigel has a style that can win & place even when he’s hurt, 4pt tilts favors guys like Weigel & Picc. 

I believe your judgement is askew - assuming Jo Smith can make 165 and be effective (good shape & go hard for 7 minutes 3 days in a row) I think he has the talent to beat anyone at the weight.  I don't think that's true at 174.  I also think you are overestimating Jacobe Smith or underrating the 184 field.To say that Jacobe is 2 to 8th at 184 but only 7 to 8th at 174 doesn't make much sense.   It is hard giving up size at this level and I believe his best shot at his highest finish is at 174.  As far as Weigel goes it is a no brainer - if he is healthy enough to compete he should go - he is by far their best bet at that weight. 

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31 minutes ago, ionel said:

If you are saying folks often confuse you and Spencer Lee ;) then I could see how those same folks might confuse Joe & Lee Roy (been grey a long time & different build).   Now Pat is  probably greying & similar build/size/look. 

Whoever he was he looked like a greyhaired John Smith, complete with the Roman nose. I ever mentioned he looked like John Smith and didn't receive a response.

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3 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Whoever he was he looked like a greyhaired John Smith, complete with the Roman nose. I ever mentioned he looked like John Smith and didn't receive a response.

ahh ... sorry I miss read thought you said Joe.  Yeah grey hair look like John, carrying more weight, could've been Lee Roy.

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3 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I believe your judgement is askew - assuming Jo Smith can make 165 and be effective (good shape & go hard for 7 minutes 3 days in a row) I think he has the talent to beat anyone at the weight.  I don't think that's true at 174.  I also think you are overestimating Jacobe Smith or underrating the 184 field.To say that Jacobe is 2 to 8th at 184 but only 7 to 8th at 174 doesn't make much sense.   It is hard giving up size at this level and I believe his best shot at his highest finish is at 174.  As far as Weigel goes it is a no brainer - if he is healthy enough to compete he should go - he is by far their best bet at that weight. 

I don't think Joe has really done anything to prove that he can beat a guy like Joseph and I think a lot of people's views of him are due to his family lineage. He's a great wrestler, but his best career win is probably David McFadden. McFadden hasn't been as good up at 174 this year as he was last year, and frankly I think he was a little overrated last year. His best win heading into NCAAs was a last second win over Chandler Rogers.

Smith is one of those guys that is impressive in losses, but doesn't actually beat top competition (or at least he hasn't so far). He looked tough against IMAR and Nolf as a true freshman, though was still soundly beaten. At that point, people saw his last name and assumed he would make big jumps and be elite in the near future, but that hasn't happened.

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3 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I believe your judgement is askew - assuming Jo Smith can make 165 and be effective (good shape & go hard for 7 minutes 3 days in a row) I think he has the talent to beat anyone at the weight.  I don't think that's true at 174.  I also think you are overestimating Jacobe Smith or underrating the 184 field.To say that Jacobe is 2 to 8th at 184 but only 7 to 8th at 174 doesn't make much sense.   It is hard giving up size at this level and I believe his best shot at his highest finish is at 174.  As far as Weigel goes it is a no brainer - if he is healthy enough to compete he should go - he is by far their best bet at that weight. 

Have you seen a Joe Smith that can go hard for 7mins? Maybe I’ve just forgotten the Joe Smith of 15-16’ & 16-17’, I have always thought one of his knocks is he doesn’t last 7minutes with guys of the same level. Watching him this season he struggled mightily with guys who can wrestle hard for 7mins for example Lujan & Lewis. 

 

I may may be over estimating Jacobe’s potential placement but it seems like 2 through 12 are interchangeable, & with his decisive win over Foster currently ranked 4th I’d like his chances to place higher at 84 than 74. 

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7 minutes ago, ionel said:

ahh ... sorry I miss read thought you said Joe.  Yeah grey hair look like John, carrying more weight, could've been Lee Roy.

Here's a pic of Lee Roy which looks a lot like John, albeit with grey hair. I'd post the picture itself but I'm limited to a ludicrous 15k or so on here. Interesting since I see other guys posting pics from time to time and I can't.

 

https://newsok.com/article/3355079/collected-wisdom-lee-roy-smith

Edited by TobusRex

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Just now, CrewWrestling said:

Have you seen a Joe Smith that can go hard for 7mins? Maybe I’ve just forgotten the Joe Smith of 15-16’ & 16-17’, I have always thought one of his knocks is he doesn’t last 7minutes with guys of the same level. Watching him this season he struggled mightily with guys who can wrestle hard for 7mins for example Lujan & Lewis. 

 

I may may be over estimating Jacobe’s potential placement but it seems like 2 through 12 are interchangeable, & with his decisive win over Foster currently ranked 4th I’d like his chances to place higher at 84 than 74. 

I think Jacobe probably has a pretty equal outlook at both 174 and 184. Maybe a little worse at 184 because it's deeper, but I think his ceiling is about the same. I think the 184 bracket is going to completely fall apart and we'll have a couple surprises in the quarters or semis. Wouldn't be surprised to see something nuts like a Bonnacorsi-Wilcke semi or some other crazy match up like we saw in 2016 at 174 with #11 Martin v. US Weatherspoon.

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8 minutes ago, CrewWrestling said:

Have you seen a Joe Smith that can go hard for 7mins? Maybe I’ve just forgotten the Joe Smith of 15-16’ & 16-17’, I have always thought one of his knocks is he doesn’t last 7minutes with guys of the same level. Watching him this season he struggled mightily with guys who can wrestle hard for 7mins for example Lujan & Lewis. 

 

I may may be over estimating Jacobe’s potential placement but it seems like 2 through 12 are interchangeable, & with his decisive win over Foster currently ranked 4th I’d like his chances to place higher at 84 than 74. 

Joe's chunky. I bet he's at least 10 pounds over where he should be. Endurance could be an issue for him.

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Smith has always been a coach that expects his wrestlers to cut for the extra weight.

Maybe he is realizing that it's a long season and is experimenting with some of his lineup if they drop until the last second similar to how many high schoolers do it.

Also....seeds are irrelevant if you are better.  Top coaches and wrestlers don't care when they have to face a stud at NCAA'S which is what separates them from most people on this forum.

Edited by Boompa

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You have to think with Smith making the changes he feels they will be close enough to PSU to take over the driver seat if there is any slight door that opens. If all the guys dropping can AA even if not top 4 they could make it an interesting tournament.  Picc should be top 4 and could be a finalist. Fix could also win it and sould be top 4. Brock is a round of 12, potentially AA with the right draw or upset. Gfellar could go 4-8. 157 will be nothing.  Then if say 2 out of 4 from 165-197 that is 6AA's. White could be a finalist as well and likely top 4.  That is 7AA with points elsewhere too. 3 top 4's.  They would have to have a great tournament but it is in reach.  They have 9 legitimate potential AA. Getting 7 with a finalist or two leaves PSU with little room for error. PSU has Nolf and Bo.  But, Hall and Vin are not locks.  Hall should make the finals. With V you are looking at 3 straight titles, pretty rare statistically.  You have Cassar but he could be 2-8.  Throw Lee in at a 3-5.  That leaves PSU with 6AA.  The other weights, nothing is gonna happen at 125.  Bravo and Shak are coming off injury, with Bravo in a deep weight.  Berge could AA but isn't a lock by any stretch.  Yes the first 6 could be enough but there is not a lot of room for error.  If any of those 6 slip just a few places it gets real interesting, if OSU has a good tournament.  

PSU is the heavy favorite, but I'm sure Smith feels if PSU does not put down an almost perfect tournament and OSU wrestles really well they can steal the title.

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14 hours ago, Boompa said:

Smith has always been a coach that expects his wrestlers to cut for the extra weight.

Maybe he is realizing that it's a long season and is experimenting with some of his lineup if they drop until the last second similar to how many high schoolers do it.

Also....seeds are irrelevant if you are better.  Top coaches and wrestlers don't care when they have to face a stud at NCAA'S which is what separates them from most people on this forum.

While this is true, think many are missing the fact that this is where the guys started the season, and it was the planned weights pre-season.  Chandler 65, Jacobe 74, Weigel 97 and see who Geer etc was best at 84.  Now sure there was before season perhaps some thought of Joe 65, Chandler 74, Jacobe 84, Weigel 97, but never started that way.

What happened is Weigel injured after only ~4 match, much speculation on the outside it was season ending. Marsden was put in, thought would be the guy & if watching matches you'd see why they went with the bump up & Geer 97.  Also Chandler injured & uncertain on/when return. Weigel came back & if stays injury free he is a beast on top and likely AA. Hence, move guys back down where they were. 

This was always a team that was going to have 2 AAs sitting out NCAA, just most thought it'd be Kaid & Chandler.  With Boo injured it became he and someone else to be named in a couple weeks.

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