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Spencer Lee and Iowa

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41 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Mueller is unbeaten and should be seeded above 2 loss Lee.

So Arujau (18-0 at 125) should also be seeded above Lee?  And Arujau has a better RPI (according to wrestlestats) and a better victory (over Glory) than Mueller.

Make the case that Mueller should be ranked higher than Vito for us.

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49 minutes ago, Cradle1 said:

I enjoy a good pile on as much as the next guy, But Iowa’s best wrestler has mono apparently and their second best wrestler is out with an injury. So the expectation is what, exactly?  That Tom Brands turns Mitch Bowman into the next Sadulaev?

With all due respect, if the kid had mono and was still feeling the effects, why in the world would any coach still allow him to compete? A college wrestler not nearly 100% (if true) competing with other highly talented wrestlers could get him injured. Enough with the excuses already. Spencers competitors no longer fear him and are using their skills emboldened by confidence to beat him. Simply put, their arsenal is better than his, both defensively and offensively and its becoming more evident. Just one mans opinion.

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For seeding at NCAA we still have the B1G tournament to get through.  Remember that Lee has to go through Rivera to win it.  If Rivera beats Lee again that means 3 losses for Lee and I can't see him being above any of the undefeated guys at the weight if he has 3 losses and no conference title.  He may end up with a really tough draw at the tournament if Rivera wins the B1G.  And if Lee loses to somebody other than Rivera at the B1G tournament it might be worse.

Right now I think it's

Piccininni

Rivera

Mueller/Vito

Bresser

Lee

That puts Spencer at 6.

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2 minutes ago, StallWarning said:

For seeding at NCAA we still have the B1G tournament to get through.  Remember that Lee has to go through Rivera to win it.  If Rivera beats Lee again that means 3 losses for Lee and I can't see him being above any of the undefeated guys at the weight if he has 3 losses and no conference title.  He may end up with a really tough draw at the tournament if Rivera wins the B1G.  And if Lee loses to somebody other than Rivera at the B1G tournament it might be worse.

Right now I think it's

Piccininni

Rivera

Mueller/Vito

Bresser

Lee

That puts Spencer at 6.

Didn't defending champion Heil have the #6 seed last year, too?  Didn't end well for him, IIRC.

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I think a lot of people are trying to speak his failure into existence.  I also think we need to consider the history of the 125 weight class.  Has there ever been a dominate athlete at this weight?  Without researching, any 3 timers? 2 timers?  I know all weights are competitive at this level, but I think the difference at the lower weights is so minimal that what Lee did last year was extraordinary.  

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7 minutes ago, Chrissn2001 said:

I think a lot of people are trying to speak his failure into existence.  I also think we need to consider the history of the 125 weight class.  Has there ever been a dominate athlete at this weight?  Without researching, any 3 timers? 2 timers?  I know all weights are competitive at this level, but I think the difference at the lower weights is so minimal that what Lee did last year was extraordinary.  

since change from 118 to 125 we've had one 3 timer Abas, and the following 2 timers: McDonough, Delgado, Dubuque. so about half the titles have been part of multi timer's reigns. 

 

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14 hours ago, VakAttack said:

He went toe to toe w/ NaTo last year and Nick Suriano into the third period, this year he's gassing in the second period in less physical matches.

This.  He did not look gassed to me in those matches, and they were matches that went the distance against two elite, ridiculously strong opponents.  Against Suriano in the finals, Lee looked noticeably fresher in the 3rd period.  Anyone who thinks something isn't going on with him physically is NOT being objective.

Edited by DEFan79

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I’d be less worried about what’s going on physically snd more worried about his mind. Maybe one’s issues led to the other’s, but clearly, he is not the same wrestler as last year and looking extremely unlikely to be able to turn things around in 2-3 weeks given the short time frame. By next year, any physical issues will be gone, but will his mind be right? If he low AAs or fails to AA at all, things could get very ugly quickly. For a kid who has dominated his entire life, that would be the kind of season that could derail an entire career. 

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**** I am still wondering if there is something not quite right with Lee (sick, injury), or like some others have said: HEW, been scouted effectively or just too one dimensional.  Something just does not look/seem 100%.  Hopefully if there is some physical issue, he will heal enough to be close to his "normal" by the B1Gs and NCAAs.  If not and it is one of the before mentioned other reasons, I do not think he will repeat.  The conference tournaments will show us a lot, not just with Lee, but with all the other potential placers.  Right now how I see things shaking out for seeding purposes is:

1st: Rivera: Extremely quick and tenacious.  Undefeated at 125, only loss to Micic at 133. Has beaten Lee and Bresser.

2nd: Picc: Same as Rivera, but more experienced.  Undefeated, has beaten Lee, Glory, Foley and Russell.

3rd: Mueller: Strong and very good in all positions and very experienced.  Undefeated but hasn't wrestled anyone in the Top 20.

4th: Bresser: Quick and unpredictable.  Only a loss to Rivera in SV, but hasn't wrestled any else except Russell (close 2-1 win).

5th: Lee: Will he heal effectively enough if he is in fact sick or hurt?  Can he sort it out and get his mojo back?

6th: Arujau:  Extremely quick, unpredictable and hard to wrestle. Only loss to teammate Tucker,  but besides Glory who has he wrestled?

The conference tournaments will hopefully sort out a lot of this.

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2 hours ago, KTG119 said:

since change from 118 to 125 we've had one 3 timer Abas, and the following 2 timers: McDonough, Delgado, Dubuque. so about half the titles have been part of multi timer's reigns. 

 

Delgado, Nickerson, Mcdonough, Donahoe, Escobedo, Nato, and Cruz were all unable to finish their career with a title, after winning it previous years. I don't know what that says, but it is interesting.

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17 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

I think he can get another one, but I think his days of pinning everyone in sight are over. If you can hand fight like hell for 3-4 minutes you have a chance. 

 

 

16 hours ago, Dr. Novak said:

Lee has a little bit of dog in him.  Push him and it looks like he quits.

I think both of you are conveniently skirting around the possibility that something is up with him that is sapping his energy; as a neutral observer it just looks obvious to me. Not the same guy as last year. My opinion only here, but I don't think you go from being as dominant as he was, majoring Rivera and shutting him out, pinning Tomasello, controlling Suriano more than anyone has before or since, teching / pinning Piccininni, scoring the most points of anyone in the NCAA tournament (even more points than any one of the Penn State guys!!!) to where he is now - being controlled by Rivera, gassing and getting pinned by Picc. He is missing the vital top gear(s) needed to beat the best guys and I don't think it's because everyone has finally figured out how to hand fight, or everyone is finally staring to push back.  Spencer and Iowa have taken the high road here by not telling anyone exactly what is going on but it's been alluded to more than once that he's nowhere near 100%. If he recovers from whatever ails him, I believe he will return to his previous dominance and yes, start pinning everyone in sight. That type of dominance isn't just reserved for Penn State guys. 

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35 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Delgado, Nickerson, Mcdonough, Donahoe, Escobedo, Nato, and Cruz were all unable to finish their career with a title, after winning it previous years. I don't know what that says, but it is interesting.

I think it speaks to how difficult it is for wrestlers who turn from boys into men over the course of their college careers to continue to make a weight lighter than most high school freshmen. Seems like the cut gets brutal for them, which can also lead to associated injuries. 

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1 minute ago, custom fitch said:

I think it speaks to how difficult it is for wrestlers who turn from boys into men over the course of their college careers to continue to make a weight lighter than most high school freshmen. Seems like the cut gets brutal for them, which can also lead to associated injuries. 

I don't know how McD ever made the weight honestly.

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1 minute ago, HoundedHawk said:

Only an Iowa hating moron doesn't believe there is something wrong with Spencer.

He's gassing in the second period . . . the second period.  He didn't gas this bad last year.  That's a fact.  

Well, I think you're right but Iowa fans do hand it out the other way as well. I think i general there is far too much enjoyment that is had when some of these guys go through hard times, but it gets reduced to "push him and he breaks".   

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2 minutes ago, russelscout said:

I don't know how McD ever made the weight honestly.

He never really looked what I would consider "healthy" would look like but his wrestling never seemed to suffer, other than senior year where he just looked haggard. 

125 is pretty much the shoulder brace weight. Seems like the smaller shoulder connections on these guys just get ripped apart from the torque that gets put on them.  

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6 minutes ago, HoundedHawk said:

Only an Iowa hating moron doesn't believe there is something wrong with Spencer.

He's gassing in the second period . . . the second period.  He didn't gas this bad last year.  That's a fact.   

Not disagreeing with the fact that it could be an injury but there were examples previously of Lee fading late in matches.  Last year both Rivera and Picc were down big and mounted comebacks in the third.  People forget Lee had a 7-4 match against Rivera last year before destroying him at Big Tens.   His freestyle matches against Fix was a somewhat similar MO - attacking and scoring early and losing late in both those matches.

Again, not saying something isn't up with him physically - but there is evidence of Lee fading late in matches against top competition in years past as well.  This year isn't the only time we've seen that out of Lee. 

 

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3 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

I’d be less worried about what’s going on physically snd more worried about his mind. Maybe one’s issues led to the other’s, but clearly, he is not the same wrestler as last year and looking extremely unlikely to be able to turn things around in 2-3 weeks given the short time frame. By next year, any physical issues will be gone, but will his mind be right? If he low AAs or fails to AA at all, things could get very ugly quickly. For a kid who has dominated his entire life, that would be the kind of season that could derail an entire career. 

My thoughts exactly.  Whatever his physical issues are, nobody was forcing him to compete over the past month, so it appears he's going to have to deal with them for at least the remainder of this year.  

It's his mind I'd be worried about. The whole situation is somewhat reminiscent of what's gone on with Markelle Fultz in the NBA.  

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20 minutes ago, Gantry said:

Not disagreeing with the fact that it could be an injury but there were examples previously of Lee fading late in matches.  Last year both Rivera and Picc were down big and mounted comebacks in the third.  People forget Lee had a 7-4 match against Rivera last year before destroying him at Big Tens.   His freestyle matches against Fix was a somewhat similar MO - attacking and scoring early and losing late in both those matches.

Again, not saying something isn't up with him physically - but there is evidence of Lee fading late in matches against top competition in years past as well.  This year isn't the only time we've seen that out of Lee. 

 

You didn't see second period gassing like this.  You could see the second Lee let Pic go in the 2nd that he was gassing and sluggish.  

This year I've seen him literally close his eyes while riding a guy in the third, desperate for the clock to run out. 

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3 minutes ago, Gantry said:

Not disagreeing with the fact that it could be an injury but there were examples previously of Lee fading late in matches.  Last year both Rivera and Picc were down big and mounted comebacks in the third.  People forget Lee had a 7-4 match against Rivera last year before destroying him at Big Tens.   His freestyle matches against Fix was a somewhat similar MO - attacking and scoring early and losing late in both those matches.

Again, not saying something isn't up with him physically - but there is evidence of Lee fading late in matches against top competition in years past as well.  This year isn't the only time we've seen that out of Lee. 

 

Yes but we've also seen him pin Tomasello in the third, and dominate and pull away Suriano in the third. He's never really been a model of consistency but this year he just can't seem to engage that unreal smash mode he had last year. My opinion only but at his top level, he is the most dominant guy in the nation along with Nickal. I don't think that guys suddenly just "figure him out".  

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2 minutes ago, custom fitch said:

Yes but we've also seen him pin Tomasello in the third, and dominate and pull away Suriano in the third. He's never really been a model of consistency but this year he just can't seem to engage that unreal smash mode he had last year. My opinion only but at his top level, he is the most dominant guy in the nation along with Nickal. I don't think that guys suddenly just "figure him out".  

 

I think they did "figure him out" in one regard: that split leg defense he always uses. Picc was ready for it and cradled him when he saw it. If he uses it against Picc again we'll see the same result. Plus others have pointed that Picc was different from bottom than his last match vs Lee.

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