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Banana Peterson

How Penn State can lose at Nationals

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For starters I don’t believe any other team has a chance besides Oklahoma State. With thar being said if 8 or 9 of these conditions are met I believe OKS can pull this off.

125- Realitic chance here but pitch needs to win. 

133- with fix at the 1 he has a great chance of winning, on the flip side RBY not going all american is very likely.

141- kaid brock needs to grab 7-8, this seems relatively do able but would also need Lee staying out of the top 3.

149- berge misses all american and and gfeller takes 4th. 

157- nolf earns 25 team points or less

165- cenzo take 2nd or 3rd and smith takes top 3. I dont like this one too much after watching big 12 but im not ready to rule this out.

174- Hall takes 2nd and smith takes 6th.

184- shakur is hurt otherwise i believe he is the 3rd best. If he takes a lower all american status (6-8) and Dakota places higher this upset would be a lot more possible.

197- nickals gonna win, same deal as Nolf. I like preston taking 3rd, possibly 2nd. 

HWT- Heard speculation that white gets the 1 seed. With no upsets in play that would leave him in the finals vs gable or cassar. If Cassar makes the finals he needs to beat him. If gable wins the finals result would not matter.

These are not predictions, let me know what you think

 

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PSU must falter and OSU has to have the tournament of their lives.

In short, it isn't going to happen.

But there is a chance next year unless they get 6th year eligibility for the entire team.

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Ok St: Need Picc, Fix, & White to place 1st, Brock top 5, G top 3 or 4, Joseph Smith top 5, Jacobe top 4, Geer earns AA, and Weigel top 2 or 3.  

Along with

PSU: Nickal & Nolf score less than 24 points, Cenzo & Hall take 2nd or lower, Cassar takes 3rd or lower, Lee takes 4th or lower, RBY, Berge, & Shakur fail to earn AA.  

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I think it'd take something really significant and extremely bad luck - something like Nolf blowing out his knee in an early NCAA round like he did last year at B1G's.

Otherwise, everything would really have to line up perfectly right for all the OkSt guys, and PSU to have some average every day type bad luck (Sugar aggravates injury, Bo doesn't pin everyone, etc.) And that seems unlikely.

Longshot either way.

 

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Penn State has a puncher’s chance at 7 finalists, 7 champs at 141/157/165/174/184/197/HWY.

But they also could potentially only end up with 2 champs. Nolf and Nickal are virtual locks to win, with only colossal upsets keeping this from happening.

The other 5 weights have legitiamate roadblocks for the rest of the Nittany Lions. What we do know however is these wrestlers show up when the lights are brightest.

141: McKenna/Eierman/Yianni in the way.

157: Lock

165: Marinelli in the way.

174: Zahid/Lewis/Amine possibly in the way.

184: Myles almost a virtual lock here too.

197: Lock

HWY: Steveson/White in the way.

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There are a lot of scenarios where OSU could knock off PSU.  PSU is still the heavy favorite but even discounting the possibility of injuries (which hope won't happen to anyone) this tournaments history is full of examples of heavy favorites having really bad days (soph G Jones,   soph M Lewnes and frosh Z Espo & Max Askren) among many others and there are even greater #s of of guys who came from low expectations to be finalists or champs.  Here is one not totally outlandish example of a finish where OSU could beat PSU :

PSU - 6 AAs  C @57 & 97, 2nd at 74, 3rd at Hvywt, 4 at 65, 5 at 84, & 6th at 41 dnp at 33 & 49 - Not a horrible tournament but not up to their usual clutch standards

OSU  9AAs - C @ 125 & 133, 2nd @ Hvwt & 97, 5th @ 41, 49,65, & 74, 7th at 84 - That would be a great tournament for OSU but very possible.  They could slip a bit off of this and still win in this scenario - Bottom line there is still a lot of wrestling to do before they hand out the team trophies.  PSU is the favorite but they still have to earn it the old fashion way.  How they looked at B 10s was a real good sign that they are firing on all cylinders.

 

 

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What's the story with Berge? Can he make weight?

Also, what's the over/under on the # of slick new never-seen-before moves we'll see from Nolf at NCAAs? I think he's still got some tricks up his sleeve that he's been saving for nationals!

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On 3/11/2019 at 3:13 PM, Banana Peterson said:

For starters I don’t believe any other team has a chance besides Oklahoma State. With thar being said if 8 or 9 of these conditions are met I believe OKS can pull this off.

125- Realitic chance here but pitch needs to win. 

133- with fix at the 1 he has a great chance of winning, on the flip side RBY not going all american is very likely.

141- kaid brock needs to grab 7-8, this seems relatively do able but would also need Lee staying out of the top 3.

149- berge misses all american and and gfeller takes 4th. 

157- nolf earns 25 team points or less

165- cenzo take 2nd or 3rd and smith takes top 3. I dont like this one too much after watching big 12 but im not ready to rule this out.

174- Hall takes 2nd and smith takes 6th.

184- shakur is hurt otherwise i believe he is the 3rd best. If he takes a lower all american status (6-8) and Dakota places higher this upset would be a lot more possible.

197- nickals gonna win, same deal as Nolf. I like preston taking 3rd, possibly 2nd. 

HWT- Heard speculation that white gets the 1 seed. With no upsets in play that would leave him in the finals vs gable or cassar. If Cassar makes the finals he needs to beat him. If gable wins the finals result would not matter.

These are not predictions, let me know what you think

 

There is no possibility Penn State loses the National Championship in 2019. Most of your hypothetical scenario is in bounds, that said JoJo isn’t AA’ing this year & is lucky to be in the field. Jacobe earns AA somewhere 6-8th range & Geer is most likely 2-2 but maybe a R12. It’s a shame if they would’ve kept it Rogers, JoJo, Jacobe I think they would’ve had 3 AA’s all in the 6-8 range versus the 1 they’ll be getting. 

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