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NCAA Qualifiers By State

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1. Total Population

2. Total wrestlers

3. 2/1= (A measure of prevalence/culture of wrestling in each state).*

4. D1 national qualifiers

5. 4/1= (a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

6. 4/2= (also a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

 

Nothing wrong with looking at charts of numbers from both 5 and 6 and comparing them. I like 6 better.

All of this is interesting for discussion, PLUS it represents some real life dynamics at work. The positioning of states on these various charts IS NOT ACCIDENTAL.

 

On the Vermont thing, I remember from a stats course (from way back when) a concept called "statistical significance", which can also be called "common sense".

 

 

 

*If you really wanted to get "academic", add in a column for the population numbers in the high school age group. Maybe someone can do a masters thesis on the socio-economic aspects of excellence in certain high school sports. I find it interesting that three of (arguably) the best areas for high school wrestling over the last quarter century were former monsters in the steel industry. THAT maybe accidental however.

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1. Total Population

2. Total wrestlers

3. 2/1= (A measure of prevalence/culture of wrestling in each state).*

4. D1 national qualifiers

5. 4/1= (a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

6. 4/2= (also a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

 

Nothing wrong with looking at charts of numbers from both 5 and 6 and comparing them. All of this is interesting for discussion, PLUS it represents some real life dynamics at work. The positioning of states on these various charts IS NOT ACCIDENTAL.

 

On the Vermont thing, I remember from a stats course (from way back when) a concept called "statistical significance", which can also be called "common sense".

 

 

 

*If you really wanted to get "academic", add in a column for the population numbers in the high school age group. Maybe someone can do a masters thesis on the socio-economic aspects of excellence in certain high school sports. I find it interesting that three of (arguably) the best areas for high school wrestling over the last quarter century were former monsters in the steel industry. THAT maybe accidental however.

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1. Total Population

2. Total wrestlers

3. 2/1= (A measure of prevalence/culture of wrestling in each state).*

4. D1 national qualifiers

5. 4/1= (a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

6. 4/2= (also a measure of quality of wrestlers coming out of each state).

 

Nothing wrong with looking at charts of numbers from both 5 and 6 and comparing them. I like 6 better.

All of this is interesting for discussion, PLUS it represents some real life dynamics at work. The positioning of states on these various charts IS NOT ACCIDENTAL.

 

On the Vermont thing, I remember from a stats course (from way back when) a concept called "statistical significance", which can also be called "common sense".

 

*If you really wanted to get "academic", add in a column for the population numbers in the high school age group. Maybe someone can do a masters thesis on the socio-economic aspects of excellence in certain high school sports. I find it interesting that three of (arguably) the best areas for high school wre stling over the last quarter century were former monsters in the steel industry. THAT maybe accidental however.

Agree 100% with your methodology, Steve - and a study such as you suggest would be very interesting. While it may be accidental that the high schools in steel towns produced great wrestlers, I'd suspect you're on to something. Where I grew up, the best wrestlers were usually the sons of farmers and coal-miners. And there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that a lot of good wrestlers have historically come from hard-working blue-collar backgrounds. Of course, now that parents start their kids wrestling at a young age, send them to camps, travel extensively for competition, etc., being from a more affluent background is an advantage. However, those kids still have to have what many would call a blue-collar work ethic to be successful.

 

Back to the numbers, I was thinking of running them again using just the 120 seeded wrestlers, instead of all 330 qualifiers. That may provide even more insight into which states produce the best quality wrestlers. However, due to the lower sample size and small numbers of participants in some states, I'd probably have to exclude some results as statistically insignificant.

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The whole "per capita" argument is weak. If you're arguing state vs state, it is what it is. That's why it's harder to win a state title in some states vs others.

Also, in states like NJ that have huge urban populations, there are large segments of the population that contribute little in terms of the state's wrestling.

 

You do know Burroughs is originally from Camden, right? I don't know how long he was there or if he wrestled there, but I saw him say it in an interview.

 

Rahway (Caldwell) is famous for its jail and I don't think you'd call that rustic or the suburbs. Dudziek was from Jersey City I think. And although I don't know the town well, I've read that Lakewood (Hahn) has a gang problem. At the HS level, we've had state champs from Irvington and Trenton off the top of my head. I also know a future star coming out of Newark right now and I think some other top young kids are from Patterson (Scorpions)

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The whole "per capita" argument is weak. If you're arguing state vs state, it is what it is. That's why it's harder to win a state title in some states vs others.

Also, in states like NJ that have huge urban populations, there are large segments of the population that contribute little in terms of the state's wrestling.

 

You do know Burroughs is originally from Camden, right? I don't know how long he was there or if he wrestled there, but I saw him say it in an interview.

 

Rahway (Caldwell) is famous for its jail and I don't think you'd call that rustic or the suburbs. Dudziek was from Jersey City I think. And although I don't know the town well, I've read that Lakewood (Hahn) has a gang problem. At the HS level, we've had state champs from Irvington and Trenton off the top of my head. I also know a future star coming out of Newark right now and I think some other top young kids are from Patterson (Scorpions)

 

Burroughs was in Camden for ten minutes. He's from Winslow Twp, a fairly rural suburb of Philly. DC coming out of Rahway is the exception, not the rule. Lakewood is a nice town in the pines (ocean county).

The vast majority of wrestlers are coming from suburban to rural areas.

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The whole "per capita" argument is weak. If you're arguing state vs state, it is what it is. That's why it's harder to win a state title in some states vs others.

Also, in states like NJ that have huge urban populations, there are large segments of the population that contribute little in terms of the state's wrestling.

 

You do know Burroughs is originally from Camden, right? I don't know how long he was there or if he wrestled there, but I saw him say it in an interview.

 

Rahway (Caldwell) is famous for its jail and I don't think you'd call that rustic or the suburbs. Dudziek was from Jersey City I think. And although I don't know the town well, I've read that Lakewood (Hahn) has a gang problem. At the HS level, we've had state champs from Irvington and Trenton off the top of my head. I also know a future star coming out of Newark right now and I think some other top young kids are from Patterson (Scorpions)

 

Burroughs was in Camden for ten minutes. He's from Winslow Twp, a fairly rural suburb of Philly. DC coming out of Rahway is the exception, not the rule. Lakewood is a nice town in the pines (ocean county).

The vast majority of wrestlers are coming from suburban to rural areas.

 

Do you know how long he lived there? I just heard he said Camden in an interview. From what I know about his being recruited because the coach came to see Vince Jones, I don't doubt he started in Sickerlerville

 

At the state level, you do see some city guys. Terrance Paul was a state champ out of Irvington and I think NJ had a state champ last year from Trenton. Linden had a runner up many years ago as well. Watch for kids from Newark and Patterson in the future (they will probably go to a private school though)

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VT, with 166 participants in HS wrestling, would be roughly equal to 5 or 6 teams worth. One ncaa qualifier shoots them to #1 on the list. If no one from VT makes it next year, they drop to last place.

 

Hurricane, I would agree that given the extremely low #'s we're talking about with Vermont, they aren't really a major player, and I only put them on the list with others because they appeared at #1 on what you called the "best state on a per capita participation basis."

Well, that doesn't make sense. I pointed out that Vermont was an anomaly because the data was based on one individual. You're the one that said they were a major player, not me.

 

Regarding demographics, the point you raise about age is valid ... folks over 65 aren't wrestling. FL has the most over 65, but PA and IA both rank very high in that over 65 group as well. PA is #2 in the country with 15.6% and IA is #4 with 14.9% Both much higher than CA with 10.6%. But why limit it to 65? It's not like 45 yr olds are participating either.

I never said anything about limiting it to 65. I said that states differ significantly in demographics. Then I said "For example, 17.3% of Forida's population is over 65." I never inferred that 45 year olds were participating in high school wrestling. I simply used 65 year olds as an example because there is readily available census data about them. An example is just that, one representation of something, not an all-inclusive list.

 

For me, any one statistic is like a picture... a single way of looking at something. More than one statistic can be valid. Pretending a state's overall population doesn't matter when it comes to producing higher #'s of any kind of talent, sports or otherwise, is hard to support.

I never pretended that a state's overall population doesn't matter. I merely expressed an opinion that looking at the population that is actually wrestling was more germane to the discussion. In short, in determining which states are producing NCAA qualifiers, I prefer to look at at the wrestlers in those states. If you wish to look at the total population in the state (which includes 45 year olds, 65 year olds, females, babies, the handicapped, etc.) that's a different methodology. Both have their uses, however, I think your method says more about culture and/or the popularity of wrestling in a given state than it does about the overall quality of the wrestlers those states produce.

 

Every population group will have a spectrum of people with different talents and abilities, a Bell curve. Some are brains, some artists and some have natural gifts and aptitudes for sports. Having a base pool of 20 million instead of a base of 2 million will increase the odds of having a greater # of talented athletes (or geniuses or most anything one measures).

Yes, I'm quite aware of that and I would point out that your methodology controls for that variable. In short, the use of a per capita per million of population is a statistical method of measuring that reduces the confounding effect of variations in the overall population. I think it strange that you accuse me of pretending that a state's overall population doesn't matter, when you're the one that selected a method that statistically equalizes the overall population.

 

At any rate, I merely went one step further and controlled for all those residents of a state that don't wrestle. Again, I wished to look at the population that actually wrestled, not the overall population. You, of course, may use any method you prefer, but I think most reasonable people would agree that some methods are better than others.

--------

 

well I never said, "you said...."

 

when it comes to nit-picking, you are without peer, Hurricane :lol:

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:lol: Nice try, rossel3, but you're the nit-picker in this instance. You were obviously directing much of your post at me. Your 2nd paragraph began with you addressing me by name. And your 3rd paragraph was a direct reply to my comment about demographics. Here's what I said in my original post:

 

Also, states differ significantly in demographics. For example, 17.3% of Florida's population is over 65, but they would be included in determining NCAA qualifiers on a per capita basis. Therefore, I think its more germane to look at the population that actually wrestles, instead of the population of the entire state.

And here's what you said in response:

 

Regarding demographics, the point you raise about age is valid ... folks over 65 aren't wrestling...

But why limit it to 65? It's not like 45 yr olds are participating either.

As shown above, you were directing your comments at something I said, not at anyone else. You

were also apparently trying to make it appear that I was excluding only the 65 and up demographic. However, what I actually said was that I was looking "at the population that actually wrestles, instead of the population of the entire state" (with 65-year olds representing just one example of the latter).

 

Of course, now that you've been called out, you wish to pretend that you weren't even addressing me with your disingenuous retort:

 

well I never said, "you said...."

:lol: What a joke you are, rossel3. I suppose that - even when you're replying to another person - as long as you don't put "you said" in quotes, then you aren't actually talking about anything that other person said. Is that the way it works, rossel3?

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Where's the guy that was beating his chest that Iowa is the 2nd best state, and it's not even close? :lol:

I did read a statistic that was I believe (could be mistaken on what exactly the criteria was) per population Iowa was second to PA in AA ?

I know when I read the stats, Iowa moved up the list rather quickly when either by population or by number of wrestlers.

 

If I have time I will search for the thread on Scout.

Probably referring to one of Jay's tables that listed # of AA's per state from 1961-2011:

 

http://wrestlingstats.com/aa/view_states60.php

 

Iowa drops to third (behind Oklahoma) if you look at the all-time table:

 

http://wrestlingstats.com/aa/view_states.php

NJWC, as you can see, if you took the time to read Jay's table, Iowa is easily ahead of New Jersey no matter how you slice it. If you look at National Champions you will see similar numbers. The truth is New Jersey has a long way to go to catch Iowa.

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Mokoma, if you had a brain in your head, you'd notice NJ is ahead of Iowa in national qualifiers, AGAIN. We outproduce Iowa in NQs, AAs and NCs nearly every year.

If you want to talk about who was best in the 60s, knock yourself out. I just live in the present.

Idiot.

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NE Ohio isn't dominating this set of Ohio qualifiers, unlike the past. A trend developing?

 

LkwdSteve - How many did the Cleveland area have this year? In our informal comparison I think I see about ten WPIAL schools on the PA side. Don't know if that is average (20%ish) or not.

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-----

 

Hurricane, in your often overly verbose posts, you tend to mostly blow smoke and ignore the obvious. You are an expert in strawman arguments and obfuscation.

 

The essence of my message wasn't to say Iowa is the "best" wrestling state, but to show it is up there pretty high by most measures, and by one measure, ncaa qualifiers per capita, it is #1.

 

Pretty simple really. But that rubs you the wrong way, so you need to bring in Vermont as #1 with it's single qualifier, and go to great lengths to say FL is at a disadvantage with so many over 65 yrs old. You nitpick over my including your #1 Vermont in my list of major players, when it was only included because you had mentioned VT as #1 on a list. Completely irrelevant, but a "Gotcha" move there. You regularly post pictures that are carefully selected to make any Iowa guy look bad. Like recently ...ignoring the punch to DSJ's face by MSU's Watts, and only including limited pictures to make DSJ look bad. And so on.

 

Which brings up the question why?

 

I believe the answer is basically that you are an anti-Iowa troll. The more flagrant variety have been booted (e.g. "suzie" - a particularly vile poster whom you lobbied to get back in).

 

Maybe a quarter of your posts have the intention of denigrating the U of Iowa wrestling team.... its current coaches, individual wrestlers, Gable, etc. Even trivial items that might get in the news are fair game to blow up into something bigger. Remember the 99cent shoplifting incident involving a wrestler (Slaton)? You scoured the internet to find a picture of the store where it occurred, so you could post it...to ridicule Slaton. What fun!! You went nutty when Metcalf won the Hodge, and made subsequent posts lobbying for 3 loss, ranked #3 at 197 Hudson Taylor to win the Hodge, because he had a lot of pins, and Metcalf had "proven" that losses don't matter. The Hodge was forever tarnished. More recently you had a bunch of posts trying to prove Gable had a high school loss, contrary to all the published facts, by calling his jr HS a HS.

 

So, while I try to maintain some objectivity, and give credit to other schools and their wrestlers, you seem to have an agenda. Pretty pathetic.

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There is a lot of talk here about the denominator (should it be population, youth population or number of wrestlers)? But the bigger problem is with the numerator. The number of NCAA qualifiers is itself very small. To gauge the quality of any state's wrestlers, it would be better to count the number of college wrestlers, or the number with, say at least 5 D-1 wins. That would take out the outliers (like Vermont, with one qualifier but maybe just one wrestler). After all, just being on a D-1 team puts a wrestler in the something like the top 1% of all wrestlers.

 

(There are something like 250K wrestlers in the U,S, or so I have read, and maybe 2400 wrestlers on the 80 or so D1 teams).

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"LkwdSteve - How many did the Cleveland area have this year? In our informal comparison I think I see about ten WPIAL schools on the PA side. Don't know if that is average (20%ish) or not."

 

My first run through had the numbers, incorrectly (I was likely half-asleep), at 8 for Greater Cleveland and 12 for the NE district. Upon closer inspection, I realized that 8 was Cuyahoga County by itself, 12 for Cleveland area, and, as it turns out, 13 for the district total. Still, a few years back the NE District had something like 24 total. I think this year is below average, but I 've never really tracked it.

 

Consider Eds produced 3 NQs and St. Paris Graham, out of SW Ohio, produced 5. For the entire state to produce talent would be a good thing, as long as......

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There is a lot of talk here about the denominator (should it be population, youth population or number of wrestlers)? But the bigger problem is with the numerator. The number of NCAA qualifiers is itself very small. To gauge the quality of any state's wrestlers, it would be better to count the number of college wrestlers, or the number with, say at least 5 D-1 wins. That would take out the outliers (like Vermont, with one qualifier but maybe just one wrestler). After all, just being on a D-1 team puts a wrestler in the something like the top 1% of all wrestlers.

 

(There are something like 250K wrestlers in the U,S, or so I have read, and maybe 2400 wrestlers on the 80 or so D1 teams).

 

Absolutely worth consideration. However, I think this would be where the very presence of D1 programs within a state might skew the numbers (maybe significantly).

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NE Ohio isn't dominating this set of Ohio qualifiers, unlike the past. A trend developing?

 

LkwdSteve - How many did the Cleveland area have this year? In our informal comparison I think I see about ten WPIAL schools on the PA side. Don't know if that is average (20%ish) or not.

 

I think there are 13 wrestlers from looking at the list (depending on if Even Henderson counts or not as Kiski prep is in the area, but a prep school)

 

it lists towns, so not all the schools are named, but I think they are from 10 different schools as you mentioned:

 

Pennsylvania, Belle Vernon--Donnie Tasser (Pittsburgh) Sr

Pennsylvania, Bethel Park--Nick Bonaccorsi (Pittsburgh) Fr

Pennsylvania, Donora--Fred Garcia (Lock Haven) Jr

Pennsylvania, Latrobe--Nathan Pennesi (West Virginia) Jr

Pennsylvania, Murrysville--Nico Megaludis (Penn State) So

Pennsylvania, New Florence--Evan Henderson (North Carolina) So

Pennsylvania, North Huntingdon--Mike Salopek (Virginia) Sr

Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh--Geoff Alexander (Maryland) So

Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh--Anthony Elias (Davidson) So

Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh--Matt Wilps (Pittsburgh) Sr

Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh--Tyler Wilps (Pittsburgh) So

Pennsylvania, Upper St. Clair--Mackenzie McGuire (Kent State) Fr

Pennsylvania, West Mifflin--James Fleming (Clarion) Sr

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NE Ohio isn't dominating this set of Ohio qualifiers, unlike the past. A trend developing?

 

LkwdSteve - How many did the Cleveland area have this year? In our informal comparison I think I see about ten WPIAL schools on the PA side. Don't know if that is average (20%ish) or not.

The WPIAL always produces many PA qualifiers as does the Greater Cleveland area, that's great.

IMHO - one of the major key factors to PA's success is how spread out across the state the NCAA qualifiers are. Most states have a hot pocket or 2 with quality wrestling. By contrast, if you were to take a map of PA and put a pin on the city for NCAA qualifiers, you would see a pin spread across the state, near major cities and in the sticks. Some of the qualifiers will come from cities or towns with a very tiny population. What that means is that 9500 PA HS wrestlers do not have to drive very far to find quality competition and they are all pushed to be good if they want to compete in PA. That is where the depth comes from. That depth is why you will see a kid like Pearsall as a qualifier when he was only a 1x PA state qualifier and went 1-2. He is good, but PA is deep.

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