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Broomstick

Pick your champs, most to least confident in the choice

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3 hours ago, tommytechnique said:

Nickal

Martin

Nolf

Yianni

Ashnault

Hall

Gable

Lee

Marinelli

Fix

 

Hard to see how Nolf is not a bigger favorite than anyone other than possibly Nickal.  He practically won it on one leg last year.

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4 hours ago, Broomstick said:

Hard to see how Nolf is not a bigger favorite than anyone other than possibly Nickal.  He practically won it on one leg last year.

Trying to figure out what is Nolf’s signature win...

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4 hours ago, PSUMike said:

Nolf

Nickal

Martin

Yianni

Lee

Ashnault

Zahid

Cenzo

Steveson

Micic

 

A week ago, Gable would have been a lot higher.

I am surprised how many people are dropping Gable here or not picking him to win, presumably based on last weekend's match.  In watching that match, I saw him look disinterested until he took one shot that he easily scored on.  Then he had one lapse and gave up a takedown with too little time left to escape and tie it up.  If he increases his intensity or focus only a little, I see that result being reversed and, frankly, I think there is more than a little room for him to increase both next time.  

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40 minutes ago, Broomstick said:

I am surprised how many people are dropping Gable here or not picking him to win, presumably based on last weekend's match.  In watching that match, I saw him look disinterested until he took one shot that he easily scored on.  Then he had one lapse and gave up a takedown with too little time left to escape and tie it up.  If he increases his intensity or focus only a little, I see that result being reversed and, frankly, I think there is more than a little room for him to increase both next time.  

1 out of 9 so far picked Gable not to win. Is that really so many?

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With my confidence level as well.

Nolf (99.9%)

Nickal (99.8%, every so slightly competitive weight than Nolf's, but still no competition for Nickal)

Martin (99.0%, wouldn't be quite as surprised as the two above, but he'd have to have a mental lapse as he is far better than the rest of the weight)

Steveson (60%, he's still a true freshman and that last takedown by Cassar will give him plenty of confidence. Not that he needs it. That semifinal winner will win the final.)

Valencia (49.0%, not sure why I'm picking him because I think Hall has a higher likelihood of making the finals, but if they both make the finals, I'm picking Zahid.)

Yianni (45%, he is the most solid, well rounded guy in the weight, but there are several guys that can beat him)

Marinelli (40%, tough path to the finals, but it is a meat grinder of a weight class. I think Wick is a bad matchup for him, but he has proven multiple times that he is the better of the two, and I think he pretty well controls all of the rest of his matches up to the finals. Just like with Hall/Valencia, I think Joseph is more likely to make the finals, but if they meet, I think Marinelli has his number.)

Ashnault (30%, I feel like this weight is a bit of a crap shoot and I have no real strong feeling about any of them)

Lee (25%, I still believe that Lee is the best guy at the weight and despite losing last week, I think he looked much improved from whatever was or was not going on with him. He was looking really good until the end of that finals match and I think he will look even better next week. That said, we wont see the separation from the pack that we anticipated after last year, so he could definitely get knocked off somewhere along the way.)

Fix (20%, I like Fix here but he has not been nearly as offensive this season as I had hoped he'd be, and that could bite him. Miccic's health is the x-factor. If he was faking it last week (i.e. completely healthy), he could make it look like there isn't as much parity in this weight as we thought.)

 

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Nolf (1 seed)

Nickal (1 seed)

Martin  (1 seed)

Yianni  (1 seed)

Steveson  (3 seed)

Lee  (3 seed)

Suriano  (3 seed)

Zahid  (3 seed)

Micah Jordan (2 seed)

Mekhi Lewis (8 seed)

 

Some of these are a bit out there. I'm picking 4 #1s, 4 #3s and 1 #2 and #8. 

I haven't filled out my brackets so I'm sure some of this will change.

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10 minutes ago, Crotalus said:

With my confidence level as well.

Nolf (99.9%)

Nickal (99.8%, every so slightly competitive weight than Nolf's, but still no competition for Nickal)

Martin (99.0%, wouldn't be quite as surprised as the two above, but he'd have to have a mental lapse as he is far better than the rest of the weight)

Steveson (60%, he's still a true freshman and that last takedown by Cassar will give him plenty of confidence. Not that he needs it. That semifinal winner will win the final.)

Valencia (49.0%, not sure why I'm picking him because I think Hall has a higher likelihood of making the finals, but if they both make the finals, I'm picking Zahid.)

Yianni (45%, he is the most solid, well rounded guy in the weight, but there are several guys that can beat him)

Marinelli (40%, tough path to the finals, but it is a meat grinder of a weight class. I think Wick is a bad matchup for him, but he has proven multiple times that he is the better of the two, and I think he pretty well controls all of the rest of his matches up to the finals. Just like with Hall/Valencia, I think Joseph is more likely to make the finals, but if they meet, I think Marinelli has his number.)

Ashnault (30%, I feel like this weight is a bit of a crap shoot and I have no real strong feeling about any of them)

Lee (25%, I still believe that Lee is the best guy at the weight and despite losing last week, I think he looked much improved from whatever was or was not going on with him. He was looking really good until the end of that finals match and I think he will look even better next week. That said, we wont see the separation from the pack that we anticipated after last year, so he could definitely get knocked off somewhere along the way.)

Fix (20%, I like Fix here but he has not been nearly as offensive this season as I had hoped he'd be, and that could bite him. Miccic's health is the x-factor. If he was faking it last week (i.e. completely healthy), he could make it look like there isn't as much parity in this weight as we thought.)

 

Super interesting that you have Yianni below Valencia and Gable. I'm picking all 3 to win too, but not with your level of confidence! Love it though. 

I see Yianni as almost a lock. 

He has the pigtail winner, Chad Red (not a lucky draw but should still be an easy win), Demas/Mitch Moore/Kanen Storr (he will dominate all 3. I guess Demas can throw anyone on the right day), Eierman (biggest threat stylistically, but Yianni is 3-1 against him and the loss came off 1 move right at the end...), and then Mckenna/Lee (both of whom he is undefeated against). I just don't see him losing unless he gets injured, and even then he won against a tougher field last year with a torn ACL. 

Valencia I'm super nervous about. He will likely have to wrestle against his 2 losses to win it all. Lewis in the semis and Hall in the finals. While I'm picking him, a lot of that is because I like him I think. I wouldn't bet on this.

Gable seems very likely to me, but he does have that loss which is why I have him under Yianni in my picks. He also wrestled a few close matches, but I think he turns it on ta NCAAs until the semis and then wins a couple close matches to take the title. He could lose in the semis or finals, but I expect he wont

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9 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I see Yianni as almost a lock. 

He has the pigtail winner, Chad Red (not a lucky draw but should still be an easy win), Demas/Mitch Moore/Kanen Storr (he will dominate all 3. I guess Demas can throw anyone on the right day), Eierman (biggest threat stylistically, but Yianni is 3-1 against him and the loss came off 1 move right at the end...), and then Mckenna/Lee (both of whom he is undefeated against). I just don't see him losing unless he gets injured, and even then he won against a tougher field last year with a torn ACL. 

No apprehension picking Yianni considering McKenna wasn't 100% for their last meeting?  He already reversed the Lee result--granted Yianni is more dyanmic than Lee, but I can definitely see McKenna shrinking the match into a couple of scoring opportunities and coming out ahead. 

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9 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Super interesting that you have Yianni below Valencia and Gable. I'm picking all 3 to win too, but not with your level of confidence! Love it though. 

I see Yianni as almost a lock. 

He has the pigtail winner, Chad Red (not a lucky draw but should still be an easy win), Demas/Mitch Moore/Kanen Storr (he will dominate all 3. I guess Demas can throw anyone on the right day), Eierman (biggest threat stylistically, but Yianni is 3-1 against him and the loss came off 1 move right at the end...), and then Mckenna/Lee (both of whom he is undefeated against). I just don't see him losing unless he gets injured, and even then he won against a tougher field last year with a torn ACL. 

Valencia I'm super nervous about. He will likely have to wrestle against his 2 losses to win it all. Lewis in the semis and Hall in the finals. While I'm picking him, a lot of that is because I like him I think. I wouldn't bet on this.

Gable seems very likely to me, but he does have that loss which is why I have him under Yianni in my picks. He also wrestled a few close matches, but I think he turns it on ta NCAAs until the semis and then wins a couple close matches to take the title. He could lose in the semis or finals, but I expect he wont

Certainly valid points about Yianni. I think I had lower confidence in him just because there are more guys that could win the weight, though I don't think they will.

At 174 it is either Hall or Zahid. I do think Zahid has wrestled poorly at times this year, but if he avenges his loses, which I think he will (though I'm rooting for Lewis to beat him again), I think it means he is on his game and will beat Hall.

I have Gable so high just because the weight is not very tough and he is the most talented. But sometimes talent can lead to complacency, which is what will cost him if he loses (it did last week).

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17 hours ago, Broomstick said:

Hard to see how Nolf is not a bigger favorite than anyone other than possibly Nickal.  He practically won it on one leg last year.

Nolf, Martin, and Nickal are huge favorites. I just think 157 has better competition. 

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1: Nickal. Nobody is even close

2: Nolf. Pantaleo is closer than anybody in Nickal's bracket, but he's not even close either.

3: Myles Martin. Went back/forth on him and Yianni but I see more separation between Myles and field than I do with Yianni.

4: Yianni. He is the class of the weight but there are some killers here. He does have a tendency to wrestle closer matches than he should against guys he should be blowing out of the water and guys do get to his legs a bit much for my liking.

5: Ashnault. Wrestles close against a lot of his competition but always seems to be one step ahead/better.

6: Gable Steveson. Going to be wrestling with a chip on his shoulder after BIG10s but prone to mental lapses.

7: Zahid. 60/40 between him and Hall.

8: Spencer Lee: Rough year at times but he seems to be trending toward last year's version lately and I think he will take it.  

9: Fix. Going with him due to Micic's seeming injury but things are wide open in this class.

10. Marinelli: I do think he is the best in his class but the $hittiest draw in tournament history didn't do him any favors, while Vincenzo is basically going to moonwalk into the finals.
 

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