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Toughest weight bracket, all-time at the NCAA's

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35 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Adding Caldwell, Burroughs and O'Connor added exactly 1 AA finish a 5th place going into that bracket.

 

Here is why 125 in 2018 is better.  Going into the tournament it had 2 returning champs and 2 returning finalists, none of which even made the finals.  That is why it's better if only considering prior results.  

If incorporating future results (which I think is misleading), then this weight class will finish with more finalist and AA finishers.  149 has 22 AA's, 125 has 20 already with Lee and Rivera 2 more years and Suriano 1 more year and will likely finish with 25 AA's.

At the end of the each tourney 125 had 3 champions (Lee, Cruz and Tomasello) 6 finalists and 15 AA's. 149 had 2 champions (Metcalf and Schlatter), 4 finalists and 14 AA's.  So it's better in all 3 areas.  Tell me why again 149 in 2008 is better than 125 in 2018?  I just don't see it.  

Ok, I see what your saying. But by that logic Millhof>Burroughs before the tourney, and equal after. If you truly believe that, we will never agree. 

 

Also 149 would have 2 AAs in Patacsil, 2 from Hall, 2 from Lang, 1-2 from Bryce Sadoris( I dont remember how many AAs he got). So 125 still may not catch that.

Edited by russelscout

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Another way to compare 125 in 2018 and 149 in 2008 would be to compare each placement.

1.  Lee vs Metcalf   Lee in 2 seasons is a 2 time champ.  Metcalf at this point was in his 3rd season and is a 1 time champ.  Advantage 2018.

2. Suriano vs Jenkins  Suriano in 2 seasons was 3rd seed with easy wins over both finalists then runner up to Lee.  Jenkins in his 2 seasons went 1-2 at NCAA's then runner up to Metcalf while having 18 losses in 2 seasons.  Advantage 2018.

3.  Tomasello vs Burroughs.  Tomasello finishes a brilliant career as a 4 time top 3 and 1 time champ.  Burroughs gets first AA finish.  Advantage 2018

4.  Lizak vs J. Churella.  Churella was 8-2-4 while Lizak was 2-4 with 1 year remaining. This weight I would call equal.

5. Cruz vs Caldwell.  Cruz was the undefeated returning champ while Caldwell got his first AA finish.  Advantage 2018

6. Rivera vs O'Connor.  Rivera was a freshman and O'Connor gets his 2nd AA 5th and 6th.  Advantage 2008

7.  Bresser vs Schlatter. Schlatter was the champ 2 years prior, and 3rd the previous year.   Advantage 2008

8. Moisey vs Palmer.  Moisey was a previous runner up while Palmer was 4th.  Advantage 2018

So if you break it down by finisher 125 in 2018 wins 5, 149 in 2008 has 2 while 1 place finish is equal.  

I don't know how it gets more simple than this.

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24 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

And THAT is where the subjective reasoning comes in. And my answer to you is: Because the top 12 wrestlers at 149 were considerably better than their 125 counterparts, which is why I said agree to disagree. 

Ok maybe if you add the round of 12 guys it gets close, but I doubt it.  I just explained how the top 8 at 125 in 2018 was easily better than the top 8 at 149 in 2008.

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4 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Another way to compare 125 in 2018 and 149 in 2008 would be to compare each placement.

1.  Lee vs Metcalf   Lee in 2 seasons is a 2 time champ.  Metcalf at this point was in his 3rd season and is a 1 time champ.  Advantage 2018.

 

You see why this is idiotic right? I dont even know what to call this. Cherry picking stats? It was Lee's first year competing. It was Metcalfs first season competing.

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14 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Ok, I see what your saying. But by that logic Millhof>Burroughs before the tourney, and equal after. If you truly believe that, we will never agree. 

 

Also 149 would have 2 AAs in Patacsil, 2 from Hall, 2 from Lang, 1-2 from Bryce Sadoris( I dont remember how many AAs he got). So 125 still may not catch that.

No Burroughs was a top 3 finisher in a great weight class, so after that tourney he would definitely be better than Millhoff who had only a 7th place finish in a normal weight class.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Ok maybe if you add the round of 12 guys it gets close, but I doubt it.  I just explained how the top 8 at 125 in 2018 was easily better than the top 8 at 149 in 2008.

You didnt explain anything. That was a terrible misuse of states.

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Just now, Mokoma said:

No Burroughs was a top 3 finisher in a great weight class, so after that tourney he would definitely be better than Millhoff who had only a 7th place finish in a normal weight class.

 

 

But you didnt put a value on placements in your initial post. All AAs were equal. And the second post, well I dont know where to begin with that.

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3 minutes ago, russelscout said:

You see why this is idiotic right? I dont even know what to call this. Cherry picking stats? It was Lee's first year competing. It was Metcalfs first season competing.

Oops you're right Lee was in his 1st season and was champ.  I agree this one might be even.  Let's call it 4 for 125, 2 for 149 and 2 even now.  It's still strongly in 125's favor.

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1 minute ago, russelscout said:

But you didnt put a value on placements in your initial post. All AAs were equal. And the second post, well I dont know where to begin with that.

Ok would you only like to compare top 4 finishers in each bracket?  I haven't looked yet but would be interested in seeing the breakdown.

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Just now, Mokoma said:

Oops you're right Lee was in his 1st season and was champ.  I agree this one might be even.  Let's call it 4 for 125, 2 for 149 and 2 even now.  It's still strongly in 125's favor.

Why would Lizak and Churella be equal. He had more AAs. And I dont see how you give Suriano the spot too. He didnt wrestle the year before at nattys and Jenkins was a junior world champ

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7 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Ok would you only like to compare top 4 finishers in each bracket?  I haven't looked yet but would be interested in seeing the breakdown.

Why would we do that? What would that prove? 

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1 minute ago, russelscout said:

Why would Lizak and Churella be equal. He had more AAs. And I dont see how you give Suriano the spot too. He didnt wrestle the year before at nattys and Jenkins was a junior world champ

They both had a 2nd and 4th.  Yes Churella has an 8th, but Lizak now has a 7th.  I think they're nearly equal.  Do you see a big advantage for Churella?

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Just now, Mokoma said:

They both had a 2nd and 4th.  Yes Churella has an 8th, but Lizak now has a 7th.  I think they're nearly equal.  Do you see a big advantage for Churella?

You want to use any criteria when it is convenient. 

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2 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Why would we do that? What would that prove? 

You're the one who mentioned valuing AA placement, as if not all AA's are equal.  Which I agree a runner up finish is not equal to an 8th place finish.  So it might be a good way to compare the weight.  Only count finishes in the top 4.

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1 minute ago, russelscout said:

 

You want to use any criteria when it is convenient. 

Pick a criteria and let's compare.  I believe 2018 will match up favorably in any form or fashion.

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24 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Another way to compare 125 in 2018 and 149 in 2008 would be to compare each placement.

1.  Lee vs Metcalf   Lee in 2 seasons is a 2 time champ.  Metcalf at this point was in his 3rd season and is a 1 time champ.  Advantage 2018.

2. Suriano vs Jenkins  Suriano in 2 seasons was 3rd seed with easy wins over both finalists then runner up to Lee.  Jenkins in his 2 seasons went 1-2 at NCAA's then runner up to Metcalf while having 18 losses in 2 seasons.  Advantage 2018.

3.  Tomasello vs Burroughs.  Tomasello finishes a brilliant career as a 4 time top 3 and 1 time champ.  Burroughs gets first AA finish.  Advantage 2018

4.  Lizak vs J. Churella.  Churella was 8-2-4 while Lizak was 2-4 with 1 year remaining. This weight I would call equal.

5. Cruz vs Caldwell.  Cruz was the undefeated returning champ while Caldwell got his first AA finish.  Advantage 2018

6. Rivera vs O'Connor.  Rivera was a freshman and O'Connor gets his 2nd AA 5th and 6th.  Advantage 2008

7.  Bresser vs Schlatter. Schlatter was the champ 2 years prior, and 3rd the previous year.   Advantage 2008

8. Moisey vs Palmer.  Moisey was a previous runner up while Palmer was 4th.  Advantage 2018

So if you break it down by finisher 125 in 2018 wins 5, 149 in 2008 has 2 while 1 place finish is equal.  

I don't know how it gets more simple than this.

Also Moisey got 2nd 3 years before. And didnt AA the next year. Does that affect the value of his placement? Should it? 

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Just now, russelscout said:

Also Moisey got 2nd 3 years before. And didnt AA the next year. Does that affect the value of his placement? Should it? 

You tell me, is a runner up finish better than 4th place?  I will let you make that call.

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Just now, russelscout said:

Yes, as long as you can go back and forth when you need to make a point.

Ok great, pick a criteria and let's compare. See where the apples fall.

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1 minute ago, Mokoma said:

You're the one who mentioned valuing AA placement, as if not all AA's are equal.  Which I agree a runner up finish is not equal to an 8th place finish.  So it might be a good way to compare the weight.  Only count finishes in the top 4.

I am pointing out how your use of statistics is misleading and inconsistent. That's not to mention the moment we add any subjective criticism, your house of cards falls down.

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3 minutes ago, russelscout said:

4th is better than not placing.

Ok agreed but Moisey was a runner up.  Have you picked what criteria you would like to use to compare the 2 weights?

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5 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Ok agreed but Moisey was a runner up.  Have you picked what criteria you would like to use to compare the 2 weights?

Start a thread with a poll. Let the people of the board choose. You can even plead your case on the post.

Edited by russelscout

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Just now, russelscout said:

Start a thread with a poll. Let the people of the board choose

Oh now it’s just a vote?  Yeah that’s a great objective criteria. But if we are going to do that we need to wait until all the 125’s graduate.

Edited by Mokoma

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12 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Oh now it’s just a vote?  Yeah that’s a great objective criteria. But if we are going to do that we need to wait until all the 125’s graduate.

Well is completely objective the best way to analyze? Look at computer rankings that wrestlestat does. For the most part they are ok, but almost every weight has a glaring problem with it. And that's from a pretty thorough data set. 

You are omitting:

In season record.

Bonus rate. 

Strength of the bracket that they did AA. Not all runner ups or 8th place finishes are the same. 

Freestyle results. 

Improvement. 

Injuries.

It almost seems negligent to avoid subjective analysis at that point doesn't it?

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