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boconnell

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Basically there isn't one.

I went through the bracket and went at least half homer for OSU and still had them losing big to PSU.  With limited bonus points to only the big scorers I had it...

PSU 128

OSU 94

tOSU 79

Iowa 69

Michigan 52

That was with PSU getting RBY (R12), Lee (5th), Berge (R12), Nolf (1st), Joseph (1st), Hall (2nd), Rasheed (2nd), Nickal (1st), Cassar (3rd).  And OSU getting Picc (1st), Fix (1st), Brock (R12), Gfeller (6th), Smith (R16), Smith (6th), Geer (1-2, brutal draw), Weigel (3rd), and White (2nd).  

In other words I cheated and did almost everything I could to slant it to OSU and still had them over 30 points behind. 

PSU is really good.

Edited by boconnell

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3 minutes ago, boconnell said:

Basically there isn't one.

I went through the bracket and went at least half homer for OSU and still had them losing big to PSU.  With limited bonus points to only the big scorers I had it...

PSU 128

OSU 94

tOSU 79

Iowa 69

Michigan 52

That was with PSU getting RBY (R12), Lee (5th), Berge (R12), Nolf (1st), Joseph (1st), Hall (2nd), Rasheed (2nd), Nickal (1st), Cassar (3rd).  And OSU getting Picc (1st), Fix (1st), Brock (R12), Gfeller (6th), Smith (R16), Smith (6th), Geer (1-2, brutal draw), Weigel (3rd), and White (2nd).  

In other words I cheated and did almost everything I could to slant it to OSU and still had them over 30 points behind. 

PSU is really good.

Those OSU results are entirely reasonable... think all the rest of your scores are a bit low though.  

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I have Kaid Brock AAing. Maybe I'm crazy, but that is how my bracket ended up. It won't make a difference though.

I'm fairly confident tOSU places 2nd. OSU has a bunch of guys who are likely 5-8 at best (141, 149, 165, 174, 184). You have to have top 4 placers to score a lot of points, which they could do at 125, 133, and 285. tOSU has 5 guys who could place top 4 (133, 141, 149, 184, 197) and I think 4/5 will, plus 1-2 other AAs. 

I'm also concerned Gfeller is injured. He hasn't wrestled all that well in the last month. I don't have him making the podium now

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1 hour ago, Housebuye said:

I have Kaid Brock AAing. Maybe I'm crazy, but that is how my bracket ended up. It won't make a difference though.

I'm fairly confident tOSU places 2nd. OSU has a bunch of guys who are likely 5-8 at best (141, 149, 165, 174, 184). You have to have top 4 placers to score a lot of points, which they could do at 125, 133, and 285. tOSU has 5 guys who could place top 4 (133, 141, 149, 184, 197) and I think 4/5 will, plus 1-2 other AAs. 

I'm also concerned Gfeller is injured. He hasn't wrestled all that well in the last month. I don't have him making the podium now

I don't necessarily disagree. I honestly think it is a coin flip between the OSUs. However, you did leave out Weigel who is seeded 3rd for Oklahoma State. That gives them four guys seeded to make the top 4, the same number as Ohio State. 

I don't think Pletcher is on that much of a higher tier than Jacobe Smith. 

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8 minutes ago, osufan12 said:

I don't necessarily disagree. I honestly think it is a coin flip between the OSUs. However, you did leave out Weigel who is seeded 3rd for Oklahoma State. That gives them four guys seeded to make the top 4, the same number as Ohio State. 

I don't think Pletcher is on that much of a higher tier than Jacobe Smith. 

Oops. I have Weigel placing 3rd too...

I think Pletcher placing 4th is way more likely than Jacobe placing 4th. 

Pletcher has to go through Rooney, Bridges and Gomez/Phillipi to make the semis. I know phillipi beat him, but I don't think he makes it that far and even if he does, Pletcher wins this time. He looked amazing at big10s. He will likely lose to Fix in the semis. He drops down to wrestle either bridges, desanto, Erneste or Tariq. Pletcher is at worst 50/50 with any of those guys, but I have him winning, then losing in the 3rd/4th match. 

Summary - Rooney, Bridges, Gomez/Phillipi, desanto/erneste/tariq

Jacobe has a great draw,  but he would have to pull off a much bigger upset to place top 4. He will have to go through Drew Hughes (win but not an easy one), Labriola (could lose this - at best 50/50), then he has Daniel Lewis in the quarters. Assuming he loses that,I'm guessing he has Bastian in the R12, which he should win.He will then likely have McFadden/Lujan/Womack. All are tough matches, with Womack being the easiest of course. He would then have to beat Hall or Amine, both of whom are heavy favorites over him. 

Summary - Hughes, Labriola, Daniel Lewis, Bastian, Mcfadden/Lujan/Womack, Hall/Amine

Jacobe's ceiling is 5th. Pletcher's ceiling is 3rd, depending on Micic's health. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Oops. I have Weigel placing 3rd too...

I think Pletcher placing 4th is way more likely than Jacobe placing 4th. 

Pletcher has to go through Rooney, Bridges and Gomez/Phillipi to make the semis. I know phillipi beat him, but I don't think he makes it that far and even if he does, Pletcher wins this time. He looked amazing at big10s. He will likely lose to Fix in the semis. He drops down to wrestle either bridges, desanto, Erneste or Tariq. Pletcher is at worst 50/50 with any of those guys, but I have him winning, then losing in the 3rd/4th match. 

Summary - Rooney, Bridges, Gomez/Phillipi, desanto/erneste/tariq

Jacobe has a great draw,  but he would have to pull off a much bigger upset to place top 4. He will have to go through Drew Hughes (win but not an easy one), Labriola (could lose this - at best 50/50), then he has Daniel Lewis in the quarters. Assuming he loses that,I'm guessing he has Bastian in the R12, which he should win.He will then likely have McFadden/Lujan/Womack. All are tough matches, with Womack being the easiest of course. He would then have to beat Hall or Amine, both of whom are heavy favorites over him. 

Summary - Hughes, Labriola, Daniel Lewis, Bastian, Mcfadden/Lujan/Womack, Hall/Amine

Jacobe's ceiling is 5th. Pletcher's ceiling is 3rd, depending on Micic's health. 

 

Not unreasonable at all. I think Pletcher does have an easier path than Jacobe. I just don't think it is that much easier that I would put him on a completely different tier than Jacobe. I'm really high on Bridges and Phillipi so I think that is a pretty tough path.

IMO, what is going to make or break Oklahoma State's chances at second are how guys like Gfellar, Kaid, Joe and Greer do. Kaid and Joe have brutal draws so I'm not optimistic but the talent is there. 

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1 minute ago, osufan12 said:

Not unreasonable at all. I think Pletcher does have an easier path than Jacobe. I just don't think it is that much easier that I would put him on a completely different tier than Jacobe. I'm really high on Bridges and Phillipi so I think that is a pretty tough path.

IMO, what is going to make or break Oklahoma State's chances at second are how guys like Gfellar, Kaid, Joe and Greer do. Kaid and Joe have brutal draws so I'm not optimistic but the talent is there. 

Yeah fair point. Not sure why I'm so confident in Pletcher. I think some of it has to do with picking Gomez over Phillipi and then Pletcher over Gomez. That is a HUGE match if it happens. 

for some reason, I am way more confident in tOSU's good guys than OSUs. OSU could AA at 9 weights, but last year they had what, 7 guys in R12 and only 3 made it through? They have the talent to have 9 AAs, but I just can't count on it.

125 Picc went 0-2 last year (on the worst draw I've ever seen almost, but still),

133 Def AA, I have him in the finals, but he wrestles some matches too close

141 Brock could go 0-2 (I have him placing 5th though)

149 Gfeller seems injured. A month ago I had him top 4, but who knows now

165 Joe could make the finals if he wins round 1, but he will probably not place. Brutal draw. 

174 Jacobe could place 5th, but he could also DNP

184 Geer has a terrible seed. He is a top 8 talent, but he has a brutal run. I don't have him AAing

197 If he is healthy, 3rd. He looks fine, but he took a long time off, is injury prone, and hasn't pushed himself like NCAAs will in years (not his fault - you can't simulate that without live wrestling)

285 Pleasant surprise! I think he places top 4, but yet again, he almost lost to Thomas earlier this year and sees him in the quarters. A loss there means a R12 match vs either Stoll or Dhesi most likely. I have him placing but his draw isn't that great. It is better than having to go through 2 or 3 though.

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1 hour ago, unbiased said:

Who are you picking to beat him?

Not the person you are responding to, but that's the issue. I don't want to pick Shakur to make the finals, but he has an incredible draw. He got very lucky. He probably has:

Ness 

Geer/Colbray

Foster/deprez/zavatsky

He is at least a 2/1 favorite until the semis, and then he is a slight favorite. I think Foster and Zavatsky will be willing to roll with him on the mat. I see it going similarly to the Venz match. It will be competitive but it is a favorable style for Shakur.  Deprez is interesting stylistically. I actually think he has a fairly good shot vs Rasheed, but I'm not picking him to make the semis. He would probably have to go through both Foster and Zavatsky to make the finals. That is a tough draw

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13 hours ago, CoachWrestling said:

Rasheed isn’t getting 2nd

I think he really is in good place to get 2nd, He got good draw. 

I think he gets passed Dakota Geer -Deprez he will have to beat believe he will pop out !

 

Frank C 

 

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Team Champions:

Penn State 

Ok State 2nd

Ohio State 3rd

Individuals:

125 - Lee over Rivera (Bresser 3rd)

133 - Fix over Micic (Suriano 3rd)

141 - Eierman over McKenna (Yianni 3rd)

149 - Ashnault over Jordan (Alber 3rd)

157 - Nolf over Deakin (Hidlay 3rd)

165 - Joseph over Wick (Marsteller 3rd)

174 - Hall over Lewis (Zahid 3rd)

184 - Martin over Zavatsky (Shak 3rd)

197 - Bo over Weigel (Brucki 3rd)

285 - Gable over White (Cassar 3rd)

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2 minutes ago, CoachWrestling said:

Chip Ness 

Cute, this thing will be over tomorrow night at about 9pm. How many wrestlers should have been seeded over Rasheed? I don’t agree he should have been #2 but give me their names and resume. BTW Spaghetti doesn’t look to sharp at 165.

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1 hour ago, LLB said:

Cute, this thing will be over tomorrow night at about 9pm. How many wrestlers should have been seeded over Rasheed? I don’t agree he should have been #2 but give me their names and resume. BTW Spaghetti doesn’t look to sharp at 165.

What are you talking about? 

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