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ConnorsDad

19' NCAA Predictions, dark horses, comments - Not a contest

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I have a lot of opinions, as most of us do, on the tournament and decided I wanted to share them. I do not have a rooting interest as far as the team's go, well maybe American University, so hopefully this is objective as we get ready for one of the two best days in sports of the year, Friday being the other one. Here we go.

A few points on the seeds. Since 2000 the average number of 1 seeds that have won a title is just over five. There's also been a 2 seed win a title every year but two. In that time, only four times have we not had somebody seeded 5 or worse win a title including last year. One last thing, a 6 seed has won about a third of the time. In my mind, there are three six seeds with potential to win the title Lizak, Massa and Dhesi.

125 - I don't think Spencer has been completely right for the entire year (I think he is now) & at the same time I certainly think the pack has closed in on him. I know there are people who are a lot stronger than they look but to me he does not look like one of the stronger individuals at that weight class. The match at Big Tens was a lot closer than the previous one. Lee was up 3-0 with under a minute to go and had riding time and lost in OT. Before Big Ten's I didn't think there was any way he could beat Seabass but that match has actually given me some belief he can win. It is still to close for me to call but if you gave me  $1000000 and told me I had to bet it I would take Spencer if for no other reason he's been in lots of big matches before.

133 - Again basically too close for me to call but I like the way Suriano has wrestled lately. Any of the top four or five or so could win it. Although he has issues on bottom, I like DeSanto's gas tank and the way he pushes the pace. If Micic is not 100% healthy, DeSanto could certainly be a dark horse. He's defeated Suriano and the match with Fix was as close as you can get.

141 - I think the only person that can beat Yanni is Yanni himself. While I don't think it is a blowout or anything, I think he's a takedown or two better than anybody else in the weight class. My dark horse is Nick Lee from Penn State. He beat McKenna and his most recent loss to Joey, it took literally everything McKenna had to do not to get taken down near the end. When you combine that with the way Penn State ALWAYS wrestles in the tournament and in the semi-finals as of late, I liked him to make the finals.

149 - I think Micah and Ashnault are the clear favorites and I'm going to go with Ashnault. Nothing really surprising here. It was really close at Big Ten's. A tie score with Micah on top and about a minute to go. Complete mental breakdown as he gets his leg grabbed and reversed while trying to cut a guy. If you're looking for a dark horse, I like Artalona to make the semis. If Mauler beats him in the second round, then that's says something about how good Missouri's room is, how good a coach Smith is or just the opposite of Penn as AA was a much higher ranked recruit with better results coming out of high school and they're both true freshman.

157 - Nolf. I do NOT like Deakin to make the semis.

165 - After watching Big Ten's, some matches from last year and between 60-70 from this season, I don't see how any objective person could not think Marinelli is the best guy in the weight class. But the best guy does not always win. I think it's more of a credit to Penn State's program than Joseph himself. I will say I was actually more impressed with Joseph than I thought I would be after going back and watching about 20 of his matches over the last couple years. If I was a fan of his I would be worried he's in danger of doing the same thing that Imar did and that's keep trying something against an opponent that doesn't necessarily work. That being said, I don't like Marinelli to win It. That might be the toughest bracket I've ever seen for a one seed. Landmine after landmine. Just as the best team doesn't always win that basketball tournament every March, the best wrestler doesn't always win the NCAA tournament. I'll take Joseph over somebody else and we'll have a lot of clothes matches in this weight class.

184 - To me, Martin is about as big as favorite over Rasheed as Nolf is over Berger. He could still lose and that would be a huge upset but it happens.

197 - Nickal. I think Weigel has the best chance of beating him although I'm not sure if he can beat Moore. I know they wrestled a couple years ago but I don't know that that has any bearing on right now.

285 - A weight class where I would be stunned if anybody but the top three seeds won it. I know Dhesi is dangerous but he has not showed the form this year that would lead me to think he could win it. In my mind comes down to this: if Gable wrestles like he is capable, by that I mean attacking and not quitting once he gets ahead, he is easily best in the class. If he does what he did at Big Ten's or against White earlier in the year, he could easily lose.

Team - Obviously it's Penn State's title to lose. The problem with beating Penn State is that even when you have a shot, you better take it because they never wrestle down. When you have a chance and it's laid right in front of you like last year, you can't crap the bed like the Buckeyes did & give it away. This year, it is PSU because neither of the OSU's can wrestle a perfect tourney and it's their only chance along with PSU falling way below expectations. Not a chance.

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Got to agree with you on most of your sentiments.

I25 - Lee's gastank wasn't where it should have been this season. Don't know the reason, not going to speculate. If he's gotten his tank back I'd make him the favorite at 125. If not...I think Picc takes it.

133 - lots of guys here with potential to win. Fix is the #1 seed, and I'm confident he makes the semifinals:D He's a big time kid though, tough to score on. Wish he would turn on his offense a little more sometimes, though. Surino, Phiippi both have a shot. Will be interesting watching what DeSanto goes.

141 Yianni. Wouldn't be surprised if he was wrestling Lee in the finals.

149 I think it's relatively wide open. Rooting for Kaden but he kinda faded near the end of the season.

157 Nolf in a cakewalk.

165 Joseph. Yeah ,Marinelli might be better, but Joseph is money at NCAAs.

174 Hall. He's a freakish athlete.

184 Martin in a cakewalk.

197 Bo in a cupcake walk, with sprinkles.

HWT Steveson, if he wrestles offensively. If not, White.

Edited by TobusRex

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I will admit he is a lot better than  I thought after I had a chance to watch a lot of his matches. He pulled two upsets his freshman, Massa and Imar. Last year, I thought he was the favorite going in and he won so I'm not as much that he is Mr. March as just really, really good.

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125 - Does anyone think Patrick Glory could trip up Picc in the quarterfinals? I don't know if he has trouble making weight but I saw a video clip of him and Daton Fix drilling in Pittsburgh today and it looked like Nick should be the 133er - he is pretty big! So, a Friday morning match shortly after weigh-ins could be tough, plus Glory was also able to get to Picc's legs for the first two periods the last time they wrestled; just not finishing or winning scrambles. Anyway I think Spencer will come out of the bottom bracket because he'll take care of Glory, not Picc.

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3 hours ago, ConnorsDad said:

I have a lot of opinions, as most of us do, on the tournament and decided I wanted to share them. I do not have a rooting interest as far as the team's go, well maybe American University, so hopefully this is objective as we get ready for one of the two best days in sports of the year, Friday being the other one. Here we go.

A few points on the seeds. Since 2000 the average number of 1 seeds that have won a title is just over five. There's also been a 2 seed win a title every year but two. In that time, only four times have we not had somebody seeded 5 or worse win a title including last year. One last thing, a 6 seed has won about a third of the time. In my mind, there are three six seeds with potential to win the title Lizak, Massa and Dhesi.

125 - I don't think Spencer has been completely right for the entire year (I think he is now) & at the same time I certainly think the pack has closed in on him. I know there are people who are a lot stronger than they look but to me he does not look like one of the stronger individuals at that weight class. The match at Big Tens was a lot closer than the previous one. Lee was up 3-0 with under a minute to go and had riding time and lost in OT. Before Big Ten's I didn't think there was any way he could beat Seabass but that match has actually given me some belief he can win. It is still to close for me to call but if you gave me  $1000000 and told me I had to bet it I would take Spencer if for no other reason he's been in lots of big matches before.

133 - Again basically too close for me to call but I like the way Suriano has wrestled lately. Any of the top four or five or so could win it. Although he has issues on bottom, I like DeSanto's gas tank and the way he pushes the pace. If Micic is not 100% healthy, DeSanto could certainly be a dark horse. He's defeated Suriano and the match with Fix was as close as you can get.

141 - I think the only person that can beat Yanni is Yanni himself. While I don't think it is a blowout or anything, I think he's a takedown or two better than anybody else in the weight class. My dark horse is Nick Lee from Penn State. He beat McKenna and his most recent loss to Joey, it took literally everything McKenna had to do not to get taken down near the end. When you combine that with the way Penn State ALWAYS wrestles in the tournament and in the semi-finals as of late, I liked him to make the finals.

149 - I think Micah and Ashnault are the clear favorites and I'm going to go with Ashnault. Nothing really surprising here. It was really close at Big Ten's. A tie score with Micah on top and about a minute to go. Complete mental breakdown as he gets his leg grabbed and reversed while trying to cut a guy. If you're looking for a dark horse, I like Artalona to make the semis. If Mauler beats him in the second round, then that's says something about how good Missouri's room is, how good a coach Smith is or just the opposite of Penn as AA was a much higher ranked recruit with better results coming out of high school and they're both true freshman.

157 - Nolf. I do NOT like Deakin to make the semis.

165 - After watching Big Ten's, some matches from last year and between 60-70 from this season, I don't see how any objective person could not think Marinelli is the best guy in the weight class. But the best guy does not always win. I think it's more of a credit to Penn State's program than Joseph himself. I will say I was actually more impressed with Joseph than I thought I would be after going back and watching about 20 of his matches over the last couple years. If I was a fan of his I would be worried he's in danger of doing the same thing that Imar did and that's keep trying something against an opponent that doesn't necessarily work. That being said, I don't like Marinelli to win It. That might be the toughest bracket I've ever seen for a one seed. Landmine after landmine. Just as the best team doesn't always win that basketball tournament every March, the best wrestler doesn't always win the NCAA tournament. I'll take Joseph over somebody else and we'll have a lot of clothes matches in this weight class.

184 - To me, Martin is about as big as favorite over Rasheed as Nolf is over Berger. He could still lose and that would be a huge upset but it happens.

197 - Nickal. I think Weigel has the best chance of beating him although I'm not sure if he can beat Moore. I know they wrestled a couple years ago but I don't know that that has any bearing on right now.

285 - A weight class where I would be stunned if anybody but the top three seeds won it. I know Dhesi is dangerous but he has not showed the form this year that would lead me to think he could win it. In my mind comes down to this: if Gable wrestles like he is capable, by that I mean attacking and not quitting once he gets ahead, he is easily best in the class. If he does what he did at Big Ten's or against White earlier in the year, he could easily lose.

Team - Obviously it's Penn State's title to lose. The problem with beating Penn State is that even when you have a shot, you better take it because they never wrestle down. When you have a chance and it's laid right in front of you like last year, you can't crap the bed like the Buckeyes did & give it away. This year, it is PSU because neither of the OSU's can wrestle a perfect tourney and it's their only chance along with PSU falling way below expectations. Not a chance.

Little off topic but you got me thinking was Josh Glenn the last national champ American U had I can’t think of anybody else that has even won it from American.

Edited by Sublime607

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1 minute ago, Sublime607 said:

Little off topic but you got me thinking was Josh Glenn the last national champ American U had?

He holds a special distinction. He is the first and last one they have had. At least for a couple years anyway.

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23 minutes ago, pamela said:

125 - Does anyone think Patrick Glory could trip up Picc in the quarterfinals? I don't know if he has trouble making weight but I saw a video clip of him and Daton Fix drilling in Pittsburgh today and it looked like Nick should be the 133er - he is pretty big! So, a Friday morning match shortly after weigh-ins could be tough, plus Glory was also able to get to Picc's legs for the first two periods the last time they wrestled; just not finishing or winning scrambles. Anyway I think Spencer will come out of the bottom bracket because he'll take care of Glory, not Picc.

Although I think Picc is the favorite, Glory could certainly pull the upset. If he got to his legs on more than one occasion it was more than Spencer did. And they better get him now while the getting is good, him being a true freshman, as I think he's going to be nails from here on out.

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1 minute ago, ConnorsDad said:

Where is section 4? How many sections are in New York? While I'm at it, how many state champions does New York Crown each year I mean how many classes are there.?

Big school, small school. 2 state champions now. Two class system was implemented in 2004. Section 4 is Binghamton area same as JP O’Connor and Troy Nickerson. Glenn was from Johnson City if I remember right.

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Lee

Micic

Yianni

Ashnault

Nolf

Cenzo

Zahid

Martin

Bo

Gable

When it comes to Nationals, I generally make my picks on the assumption that everyone is wrestling at their best as guys generally rise to the occasion unless there is a glaring injury (i.e. Nolf last season). If Lee is 100%, he bonuses his way through the bracket. Zahid is more dynamic than Hall and his offense is hard to stifle. Cenzo has a bigger toolbox than Marinelli and he has had tunnel vision on upper body stuff in their past 2 matches. I think the rest are relatively self-explanatory. 

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7 minutes ago, PSUMike said:

Lee

Micic

Yianni

Ashnault

Nolf

Cenzo

Zahid

Martin

Bo

Gable

When it comes to Nationals, I generally make my picks on the assumption that everyone is wrestling at their best as guys generally rise to the occasion unless there is a glaring injury (i.e. Nolf last season). If Lee is 100%, he bonuses his way through the bracket. Zahid is more dynamic than Hall and his offense is hard to stifle. Cenzo has a bigger toolbox than Marinelli and he has had tunnel vision on upper body stuff in their past 2 matches. I think the rest are relatively self-explanatory. 

Although I don't think he bonuses his way through, count me in after the last match with Rivera as a believer that Spencer is on his way back. If Micic is 100%, then he and Suriano in the finals. It was a close match even before he was hurt so I'll go with Nick. I think you might be right about Cenzo having a bigger arsenal although it's close & I think Marinelli is a much better physically. As I said earlier I'm wondering if Cenzo keeps doing the same thing that Imar tried to do to him with the same results. With an average of five one seeds winning in the last 20 years, it'll be interesting to see which ones go down.

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10 hours ago, pamela said:

125 - Does anyone think Patrick Glory could trip up Picc in the quarterfinals? I don't know if he has trouble making weight but I saw a video clip of him and Daton Fix drilling in Pittsburgh today and it looked like Nick should be the 133er - he is pretty big! So, a Friday morning match shortly after weigh-ins could be tough, plus Glory was also able to get to Picc's legs for the first two periods the last time they wrestled; just not finishing or winning scrambles. Anyway I think Spencer will come out of the bottom bracket because he'll take care of Glory, not Picc.

Picc has no trouble with weight.  Even if he did it wouldn't affect that match Friday.  When he beat Glory 9-4 it was first match of the dual right after a 1 hour weigh-in.  If Glory is the better wrestler he'll win, but he'll have no Friday morning weight advantage to help him.  

Edited by boconnell

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125 - Picc, Rivera, Lee, Bresser, Mueller, Russell, Glory, Arujau 

133 - Fix, Suriano, Micic, Desanto, Phillipi, Lizak, Wilson, Bridges, 

141 - Eierman, McKenna, Yianni, Alber, Lee, McKee, Demas, Storr

149 - Ashnault, Jordan, Koldzik, Finesilver, Oliver, Gfeller, Mauler, O'Connor

157 - Nolf, Berger, Deakin, Hidlay, Pantaleo, Young, Hayes, Early

165 - Joseph, Marinelli, Marstellar, Wick, Shields, White, Romero, Lewis

174 - Valencia, Hall, Lewis, Amine, Kutler, Smith, Lujan, McFadden

184 - Martin, Rasheed, Zavatsky, Parker, Dean, Venz, Preisch, Reenan

197 - NIckal, Moore, Weigel, Brucki, Warner, Miklus, Honis, Aiello,

285 - Steveson, White, Cassar, Dhesi, Wood, Thomas, Paris, Hillger

 

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11 hours ago, pamela said:

125 - Does anyone think Patrick Glory could trip up Picc in the quarterfinals? I don't know if he has trouble making weight but I saw a video clip of him and Daton Fix drilling in Pittsburgh today and it looked like Nick should be the 133er - he is pretty big! So, a Friday morning match shortly after weigh-ins could be tough, plus Glory was also able to get to Picc's legs for the first two periods the last time they wrestled; just not finishing or winning scrambles. Anyway I think Spencer will come out of the bottom bracket because he'll take care of Glory, not Picc.

Glory is very good. He has a shot vs anybody, but he's definitely a dog vs Picc.

Picc is pretty long for a 125 pounder, he could probably put on a bit more muscle (and he's already jacked). 

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