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Iowa returns 7 All Americans next year

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Murin 2 pts. 

Lugo 5.5 pts

Young is probably maxed out at 12.5 pts

Wilcke 2.5 pts, and he may be maxed out there or close to it. He is just not an elite guy and I don't see that changing.

Warner 7.5 pts and he didn't face one top guy. He lost to an unranked guy and a 15/16th ranked guy. Not elite when the lights are on. 

Marinelli will score more, and Kem will add to the total in a nice way. Lee and DeSanto are about maxed out where they are. 

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They have plenty of room to improve with the 7AAs too. It is very interesting. Reminds me of OSU for the past couple of years. They have a chance at the title, but need their 6-8 guys to become 1-5 guys. That's where you score points. 

125 - 25 points

133 - 15 points (great example of the improvement they need next year - took Desanto from R12 to 5th)

141 - I think between Murin and the transfer, they get 5-10 points

149 -  10 points Lugo only scored 5.5 this year

157  -12.5 points - I think this is the upper end of Young's potential, so I'll keep it the same

165 - 10 points - Marinelli only scored 7.5 points, but clearly his ceiling is a title. He has under-performed at NCAAs twice now, but man he is good. 

174 10 points? - hard to tell with no data on Kem at 174. With all top 3 returning, I think Kem is 4th at best and that might be a stretch. Serious talent though and who knows if/how he has improved this year.

184 - 5.5 points -Wilcke was close this year. He might AA before it is all said and done. 

197 - 10 points - Warner scored 7.5 this year. He has potential to be top 3 but predicting that without more data is tough. 

285 - 7.5 points - HVWT is becoming amazing next year, especially if Cassar returns. Cassioppi can definitely AA, but his bottom issues plus the talent at the weight is going to give him problems. Plus, freshman at heavyweight tend to do poorly (although half of the ranked guys at this weight will be freshman by the end of the year)

There is almost no chance of this coming true, but I made fairly realistic expectations for next year. Problem is, with 8/10 possible placing 7th or 8th, they still won't win without a couple 7th/8th guys breaking through to 5 or better. 

This would give them 125.5 points, which would easily be enough to win it all next year. That assumes 10 AAs though...most likely they get 6 or 7 AAs and need to make sure at least 5 or 6 of those are 5th or better, plus at least 2 big scorers (Lee, Desanto, Warner, Kem and Young all could be on that list I imagine)

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That is an Iowa dream world scenario, but they'll never score all those points. A bunch of those guys will always be stuck right where they are because new guys will come in and pass them by. Very few of their guys make the Desanto leap. 

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16 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

That is an Iowa dream world scenario, but they'll never score all those points. A bunch of those guys will always be stuck right where they are because new guys will come in and pass them by. Very few of their guys make the Desanto leap. 

Totally agree. The only way they score 125 next year is if they have a couple more high end scorers. If 3 of Lee, Marinelli, Young, Desanto and Kemerer make the finals, sure. Relying on a bunch of R12 type guys to win is a losing strategy. We see it every year - some of those guys break through, but they are also generally the ones who lose to the #22 seed who is on a roll.

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I love the Penn State fans (who totally don't care about Iowa at all, they're so irrelevant) are immediately posting about Iowa knowing it's going to be close next year.

Here's a fact, Iowa performed at or above seed at 7 of 9 weights. And another, they are adding a bonus machine at HW and Kemerer to a weight that's losing at least Lewis and probably Zahid.

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22 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

I love the Penn State fans (who totally don't care about Iowa at all, they're so irrelevant) are immediately posting about Iowa knowing it's going to be close next year.

Here's a fact, Iowa performed at or above seed at 7 of 9 weights. And another, they are adding a bonus machine at HW and Kemerer to a weight that's losing at least Lewis and probably Zahid.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Wat? Cassioppi faced 2 guys this year that were NCAA Tournament level wrestlers, Jere Heino and Matt Stencil. One guy majored him and the other pinned him. Just how is he a bonus machine at Hwt? Maybe at Nichols, not at NCAA. 

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2 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Wat? Cassioppi faced 2 guys this year that were NCAA Tournament level wrestlers, Jere Heino and Matt Stencil. One guy majored him and the other pinned him. Just how is he a bonus machine at Hwt? Maybe at Nichols, not at NCAA. 

Pinned Gannon Gremel who won a match at NCAAs, and also beat Aj Nevills. Just saying.

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Like some others have said, it’s all gonna depend on the shirts, transfers(?), health, and offseason movement/development. Assuming Conel comes in and Cassar’s back, Penn State brings back four AA’s 3rd or better, three of which have won championships, along with Lee and RBY. That’s six AA’s and more high end guys. Brooks is just as ready to step in and score points as Cass and Assad are. And I don’t see much difference between Berge/Verkleeren and Lugo/Murin. They’re all R12, 7th/8th as ceiling types. I know Lugo broke through and AA’d, but he’s not going to score high end points next year. 

Right now I’d say Iowa’s a slight favorite, there’s a lot to unfold though

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Pinned Gannon Gremel who won a match at NCAAs, and also beat Aj Nevills. Just saying.
And pinned qualifier Colton Mctiernan who lost to Jordan Wood 6-4. He's going to pin a lot of guys who are not top level, and much improved from the RS.

Also, he smoked Mason Parris right before college started.

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3 hours ago, VakAttack said:

I love the Penn State fans (who totally don't care about Iowa at all, they're so irrelevant) are immediately posting about Iowa knowing it's going to be close next year.

Here's a fact, Iowa performed at or above seed at 7 of 9 weights. And another, they are adding a bonus machine at HW and Kemerer to a weight that's losing at least Lewis and probably Zahid.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

it is the 'interweb' where we are all experts...

People live in Iowa because they can't spell the longer names of other States.

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4 hours ago, russelscout said:

Pinned Gannon Gremel who won a match at NCAAs, and also beat Aj Nevills. Just saying.

Well, while those two qualified for NCAA's, they also went a combined 1-4 at NCAA's. Keep in mind, my post was in response to the idea Cassioppi can be counted on for 7.5 points at NCAA's. That is 7th place points for a true freshman Hwt. I have Stencil, Heino, Wood, Steveson, Tanner Hall, Hillger, and Cassar at the minimum ahead of him. Probably Mason Parris based on his year of experience. If Kerkvliet wrestles you can add him in there too.  

Edited by TBar1977

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19 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Well, while those two qualified for NCAA's, they also went a combined 1-4 at NCAA's. Keep in mind, my post was in response to the idea Cassioppi can be counted on for 7.5 points at NCAA's. That is 7th place points for a true freshman Hwt. I have Stencil, Heino, Wood, Steveson, Tanner Hall, Hillger, and Cassar at the minimum ahead of him. Probably Mason Parris based on his year of experience. If Kerkvliet wrestles you can add him in there too.  

Neat. I'm not shocked you view it that way.

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26 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Well, while those two qualified for NCAA's, they also went a combined 1-4 at NCAA's. Keep in mind, my post was in response to the idea Cassioppi can be counted on for 7.5 points at NCAA's. That is 7th place points for a true freshman Hwt. I have Stencil, Heino, Wood, Steveson, Tanner Hall, Hillger, and Cassar at the minimum ahead of him. Probably Mason Parris based on his year of experience. If Kerkvliet wrestles you can add him in there too.  

 

5 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Neat. I'm not shocked you view it that way.

 

I would suggest most people would have those wrestlers ahead of Cassioppi at this point. Tony can change that, but so could have your Iowa lineup this past weekend and it didn't materialize. You had fans over on HR this time last year that had Iowa toppling PSU this year. Of course that was with Kimmer, but that was still totally unrealistic. Add in 14 points for Kimmer to your 76 point total and you still finish 47.5 points behind PSU. Perception and reality are often two different things. 

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