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Jimmy Cinnabon

Why I think Penn State is about to decline

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Yes I know 8 of the last 9 years they've won the team title...but I think they are in for a bit of a relative slump in the coming years and here is why.

1. No more Nickal and Nolf.  Both 3 timers, both prolific bonus scorers.  Better than DT and Ruth.  No one on the roster is at that level where they were LOCKS for national champs with lots of bonus.

2.  Still a hole at 125.  Blue chipper Teasdale is gone, supposedly Teske is gone, Lucas Byrd didn't even take his visit to PSU before committing to Illinois.  Looks like another year for Devin Schnupp who will not be a national qualifier again.

3. RBY is good but needs to redshirt.  He is too physically weak right now.  DeSanto bullied him.

4. Nick Lee seems to have peaked.  His ceiling seems to be 5th.  Good, but not great.  Not physical, not a good scrambler.  He wins on pace which carries him versus most guys but he can't get over the hump against elite competition.

5. 149-157: Verk and Berge I think will be solid, but low AA types.  This is a huge decline from Retherford and Nolf.  They go from 3xers at each spot to guys who will probably be 1-2x AAs in their careers with not much bonus at all.

6. 165-184: Joseph has lost his aura - no longer can be considered a favorite due to Lewis and Bull.  Hall can no longer be a guaranteed champ and he doesn't bonus much.  Who knows how good Shak can be -- he is injury prone.

7. Incoming recruits are a big question mark: Joe Lee, Starocci, Brooks, Beard, Nevills.  I think Brooks and Beard are certainly going to be studs but the rest are a bit of a question mark.  Brooks may not wrestle in blue and white for a while due to red shirts and Oly red shirts.

8. Probably the biggest factor is the rise of great incoming classes at Ohio State and Iowa.  Absolutely loaded classes that are just as good or even better than Penn State's.

 

I think in 2020 PSU takes 2nd and 2021 they take 3rd.

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Well even if Penn St. has a down year, here or there, I have to believe that Cael will continue to attract and recruit the best. I believe that Cael has just has to much going on with this program to have it fall into a long period of decline. And if Penn St. does have a down year next year, you can bet that we will all enjoy watching the fireworks at next year's NCAA's. 

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4 minutes ago, de4856 said:

Well even if Penn St. has a down year, here or there, I have to believe that Cael will continue to attract and recruit the best. I believe that Cael has just has to much going on with this program to have it fall into a long period of decline. And if Penn St. does have a down year next year, you can bet that we will all enjoy watching the fireworks at next year's NCAA's. 

Don't get me wrong.  PSU will still be a top 3 team every year...but I think the competition has closed the recruiting gap significantly.  I think in the next 10 years PSU will win 5 or fewer of those team titles.

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28 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Don't get me wrong.  PSU will still be a top 3 team every year...but I think the competition has closed the recruiting gap significantly.  I think in the next 10 years PSU will win 5 or fewer of those team titles.

Lol. The smart money will bet the over. 

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It will be good for College Wrestling to crown a different team champion. And yes, other teams are catching up. Ohio State will be opening the most spectacular wrestling facility in the world. Rutgers is another program opening a new facility. Schools are starting to put more money into their wrestling programs.  And no doubt, within the next 5 to 10 years, the Texas Longhorns will have a team!

I will very much enjoy watching as the drama unfolds!  

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Once again, no one can have a negative opinion about PSU without TBar calling him them a troll.  Instead of calling in a Troll why don't you enlighten us on why you think he is wrong because all of his points, are pretty spot on.

1) for sure is spot on, two of the best wrestlers in the history of the sport are no longer in PSU's lineup.

2) 125 has been and will continue to be an issue for PSU

3) a little bit of a question mark but you can't deny that he is correct at this time, RBY needs to work a lot more work and probably would benefit from a RS because if his best move is to stall most of the match with one hand behind his back, then there will be issues there.

4) Prove him wrong, Nick Lee has peaked and the stats certainly tell that story

5) Verk couldn't even crack the lineup and Berge was sucking wind for most of the year

6) Here is where I differ a little because as long as Joseph is in the lineup, he has a shot.  Now with that being said, he is 0-2 against the Bull and 0-1 against Lewis (I guess I am not sure if they wrestled previously) and none of those matches where even close.

7) I also think Brooks and Beard are studs but they are not in the lineup AND unproven.  Ask Fix and Steveson what happens to unproven Freshmen.

8) He is spot on again

So just because you are butt hurt you have to call someone a troll?  He is pretty spot on with his run down.

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4 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

You are a transparent troll, gotta hand you that much.

Wrong. I can't see through him so he's not transparent. I think he's more like a cave troll, the big ones from Lord of the Rings.

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4 hours ago, BHawk91 said:

Once again, no one can have a negative opinion about PSU without TBar calling him them a troll.  Instead of calling in a Troll why don't you enlighten us on why you think he is wrong because all of his points, are pretty spot on.

1) for sure is spot on, two of the best wrestlers in the history of the sport are no longer in PSU's lineup.

2) 125 has been and will continue to be an issue for PSU

3) a little bit of a question mark but you can't deny that he is correct at this time, RBY needs to work a lot more work and probably would benefit from a RS because if his best move is to stall most of the match with one hand behind his back, then there will be issues there.

4) Prove him wrong, Nick Lee has peaked and the stats certainly tell that story

5) Verk couldn't even crack the lineup and Berge was sucking wind for most of the year

6) Here is where I differ a little because as long as Joseph is in the lineup, he has a shot.  Now with that being said, he is 0-2 against the Bull and 0-1 against Lewis (I guess I am not sure if they wrestled previously) and none of those matches where even close.

7) I also think Brooks and Beard are studs but they are not in the lineup AND unproven.  Ask Fix and Steveson what happens to unproven Freshmen.

8) He is spot on again

So just because you are butt hurt you have to call someone a troll?  He is pretty spot on with his run down.

I have called him a troll for things un related to PSU. You are blind to not understand that.

Lol. Not butthurt after 8 NCAA titles in 9 years. More like enjoying the ride. 

If anyone is butthurt, it's a certain class of deranged Hawkeye fans. No one else. Not sensible Buckeye, Tiger, or any other fans, and sure as he'll not Penn State fans.

Edited by TBar1977

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15 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

If anyone is butthurt, it's a certain class of deranged Hawkeye fans. No one else. Not sensible Buckeye, Tiger, or any other fans, and sure as he'll not Penn State fans.

Diversion anyone? There are pretty much no Iowa fans on this site that acts like that, but you constantly have to attack a few Iowa fans on another site  who dont talk on here, dont address you and are only trying to talk to other Iowa fans. It's been an easy scapegoat for you, but why dont you start addressing the absolutely ridiculous and deranged PSU fans that show up here all the time? 

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I agree that the domination PSU has enjoyed is coming to an end.  All things work in cycles and you don't have to be a troll or a fan of one team or another to know that as a fact.  The pendulum is about to swing and the playing field is about to even out. TOSU is about to open a new facility and Iowa is close to announcing the timeline on a new facility to be built.  It's an exciting time for the sport of wrestling.  The next few years team race is going to be fun.

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18 hours ago, de4856 said:

Well even if Penn St. has a down year, here or there, I have to believe that Cael will continue to attract and recruit the best. I believe that Cael has just has to much going on with this program to have it fall into a long period of decline. And if Penn St. does have a down year next year, you can bet that we will all enjoy watching the fireworks at next year's NCAA's. 

Unfortunately the older Cale get's the less kids will remember his wrestling career.  It's unfortunate but it happens.  Gable was a complete freak in that he could recruit up until the day that he retired.  I just don't feel as if Cale has the out going personality to recruit like Gable and his younger assistant coaches that do much of the recruiting will at some point leave to become head coaches at other schools.  

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It would be quite a feat for PSU to win again. But if Cassar returns, won't they again have the most team points returning? 

It was quite a feat for Sanderson to replicate Taylor & Ruth with Nolf & Nickal. It suggests he could possibly do it again.  Why can't Brooks, Beard, Starocci, Nevills, & Joe Lee load them up for another multi-year run?  They are all in the mid to upper weights which traditionally has been PSU's bread & butter.

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41 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Diversion anyone? There are pretty much no Iowa fans on this site that acts like that, but you constantly have to attack a few Iowa fans on another site  who dont talk on here, dont address you and are only trying to talk to other Iowa fans. It's been an easy scapegoat for you, but why dont you start addressing the absolutely ridiculous and deranged PSU fans that show up here all the time? 

I didn't attack first, I just made a comment about Cinnamon Buns being a troll , which he quite obviously is a troll. I then got a laugh about the prediction of PSU's impending decline. That dopey Iowa fan then stated no one can have a negative opinion of PSU without me calling them a troll which is not true in the least.

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33 minutes ago, Bryan said:

Unfortunately the older Cale get's the less kids will remember his wrestling career.  It's unfortunate but it happens.  Gable was a complete freak in that he could recruit up until the day that he retired.  I just don't feel as if Cale has the out going personality to recruit like Gable and his younger assistant coaches that do much of the recruiting will at some point leave to become head coaches at other schools.  

Cael's personality has never impeded his recruiting. 

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3 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I didn't attack first, I just made a comment about Cinnamon Buns being a troll , which he quite obviously is a troll. I then got a laugh about the prediction of PSU's impending decline. That dopey Iowa fan then stated no one can have a negative opinion of PSU without me calling them a troll which is not true in the least.

So calling someone a troll isn't attacking?  Just because CB has a negative post about PSU you call him a troll, that is attacking first.  He/she was actually pretty spot on with their run down of team Cael.

It is absolutely true that no one can talk negative about PSU without you calling them a troll or some other name.  You do it all the time and instead of actually giving an educated response on why you think what you think, you just call them names and say some idiotic thing about PSU.

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29 minutes ago, BHawk91 said:

So calling someone a troll isn't attacking?  Just because CB has a negative post about PSU you call him a troll, that is attacking first.  He/she was actually pretty spot on with their run down of team Cael.

It is absolutely true that no one can talk negative about PSU without you calling them a troll or some other name.  You do it all the time and instead of actually giving an educated response on why you think what you think, you just call them names and say some idiotic thing about PSU.

In Cinnamon Bun's case it's not an attack, it's a fact. Plus, I didn't call him a troll for just that post as you stated. I have stated directly or imp,lied he's a troll on numerous occasions by now, and since you respond to so many of my posts you would know this. So why did you make the false claim that I call everyone who has something negative to say about Penn State a troll when you clearly know this is not the case?

So no, it's not an attack in his case to deem him a troll. And while he offered some decent takes I am not going to reward an obvious troll by taking the bait. Similarly, it's not inaccurate to call you a butthurt Iowa fan. Look at your own behavior here. You can't handle obvious sarcasm without blowing up. 

Edited by TBar1977

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1 hour ago, Bryan said:

Unfortunately the older Cale get's the less kids will remember his wrestling career.  It's unfortunate but it happens.  Gable was a complete freak in that he could recruit up until the day that he retired.  I just don't feel as if Cale has the out going personality to recruit like Gable and his younger assistant coaches that do much of the recruiting will at some point leave to become head coaches at other schools.  

Nobody Penn State is recruiting remembers Cael's career. He won his gold medal 15 years ago. What they do remember is that Penn State has won 8 of 9 and that over a fifth of the NCAA champions in the past decade are from one school. 

Edited by IronChef

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7 minutes ago, IronChef said:

Nobody Penn State is recruiting remembers Cael's career. He won his gold medal 15 years ago. What they do remember is that Penn State has won 8 of 9 and that over a fifth of the NCAA champions in the past decade are from one school. 

PSU has also won something like 21 out of their last 22 in NCAA semi finals matches. That is insane. Without knowing, I bet that has never happened before. 

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1 hour ago, KTI said:

I agree that the domination PSU has enjoyed is coming to an end.  All things work in cycles and you don't have to be a troll or a fan of one team or another to know that as a fact.  The pendulum is about to swing and the playing field is about to even out. TOSU is about to open a new facility and Iowa is close to announcing the timeline on a new facility to be built.  It's an exciting time for the sport of wrestling.  The next few years team race is going to be fun.

The key word is cycles. PSU has been dominant in recruiting and on the mat for the last decade. There is a delicate balance between the Nickal's and Nolf's attracting talent and pushing it away. There are some recruits who see PSU's stacked lineup and say, "I want to be on that team because they are the best, even if I don't start." Others look at all of the stars in the line up and realize there is no spot for them (at least right away). PSU has some great recruits waiting in the wings and I think they will do well the next couple of seasons, but it is very difficult to look at anyone and predict that they are going to score ~100 points at NCAAs over their career.

I think we will see Cael rebuild next year or the year after and then start another run at some titles. I loved watching Nolf and Nickal, and think what PSU has done under Cael is incredible, but I am looking forward to some (hopefully) exciting team races in the next few seasons.

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I think as was the case earlier in the PSU run, you will get those close races. Cael is going to likely have to win some close ones if he is going to get it done. I think he has demonstrated he can do that, though, so counting on slumps for a few years as the OP wrote may be pre mature. 

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