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Jimmy Cinnabon

Why I think Penn State is about to decline

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Cael has an excellent track record of getting his top recruits into truly dominant form. This has been especially noticeable with the heavier half of his lineup, but not exclusive to that (Nolf & Retherford). I like to believe that his repeated success with the heavier guys is directly related to his own physical assets, which will eventually deteriorate. Cael turns 40 this year.

Certainly, his staff will be crucial to maintaining success, but there's obviously plenty of great things going on in that program to help maintain it.

I think when PSU is eventually unseated as the dynasty team, it will be under another upstart leadership of a superstar like JB or Snyder. It'll be like Smith disrupting Gable, and Cael disrupting Smith (albeit to a lesser degree - I don't know if OSU reached dynasty level).

In the mean time I'm looking forward to some competitive years with the other well-equipt teams challenging PSU. 

 

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19 hours ago, BHawk91 said:

 

4) Prove him wrong, Nick Lee has peaked and the stats certainly tell that story

 

I don't think Nick Lee has peaked.  I think he's been in a very tough weight class 2 years in a row.  He was right there with McKenna this year, losing 2 close matches and winning a close one.  He was probably the 3rd best true sophomore this past season, behind Yianni and Spencer.  Nick could really use a red shirt, but it's not out of the question that he is a potential finalist next year.  If he takes a RS next season, I think he nearly a lock to be a finalist the following year.  Don't see Demas hitting him with 4-5 inside trips again.

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5th is not at all Lee's ceiling.  He's a true sophomore in what has been one of the toughest weight classes the last two years.  Agreed there's another sophomore that has won that title those two years, but that doesn't mean Lee has hit his peak.  He had one match he "shouldn't have" lost this year.  He had a bit more last year.  He lost in the first round last year compared to making it to the semi's.  You have to look at more than just the number in the place column.  

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3 hours ago, denger said:

Cael has an excellent track record of getting his top recruits into truly dominant form. This has been especially noticeable with the heavier half of his lineup, but not exclusive to that (Nolf & Retherford). I like to believe that his repeated success with the heavier guys is directly related to his own physical assets, which will eventually deteriorate. Cael turns 40 this year.

Certainly, his staff will be crucial to maintaining success, but there's obviously plenty of great things going on in that program to help maintain it.

I think when PSU is eventually unseated as the dynasty team, it will be under another upstart leadership of a superstar like JB or Snyder. It'll be like Smith disrupting Gable, and Cael disrupting Smith (albeit to a lesser degree - I don't know if OSU reached dynasty level).

In the mean time I'm looking forward to some competitive years with the other well-equipt teams challenging PSU. 

You do realize when Cael won his first title at PSU, it was right after Iowa won three in a row, right?  Okie State hadn't won a championship since 2006. 

Also, when did John Smith ever disrupt Gable's dynasty?  There was a four year gap after winning 9 straight where Iowa didn't win it between 1987-1990: Iowa State in 1987, Arizona State in 1988, Okie State 1989 and 1990).  Gable then went on to win six out of his last seven before retiring (1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997).

Edited by Dondante88

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5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

5th is not at all Lee's ceiling.  He's a true sophomore in what has been one of the toughest weight classes the last two years.  Agreed there's another sophomore that has won that title those two years, but that doesn't mean Lee has hit his peak.  He had one match he "shouldn't have" lost this year.  He had a bit more last year.  He lost in the first round last year compared to making it to the semi's.  You have to look at more than just the number in the place column.  

Even in the match you write he "shouldn't have lost" this year, the whole team wrestled flat in that meet and the following week. They wrestled flat the same two weeks a year prior. It isn't hard to see that, as FRL stated, they were training thru. And even at that the Wisconsin kid needed a lot to go right for him and wrong for Lee to win that match. Nobody in their right mind would bet on him to beat Lee at NCAA's. 

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3 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

There will be some hip tosses and body locks mixed in next year.

Demas was a 149 as a redshirt, so maybe he goes back up. He also had 9 losses at 141, so it isn't like he is unbeatable. 

Edited by TBar1977

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48 minutes ago, Lurker said:

5th is not at all Lee's ceiling.  He's a true sophomore in what has been one of the toughest weight classes the last two years.  Agreed there's another sophomore that has won that title those two years, but that doesn't mean Lee has hit his peak.  He had one match he "shouldn't have" lost this year.  He had a bit more last year.  He lost in the first round last year compared to making it to the semi's.  You have to look at more than just the number in the place column.  

He never should have lost in the 1st round the year before.  I watch all of Penn State's matches and Nick Lee this year looks the same as Nick Lee last year.  He wins in the same way and loses in the same way.  Honestly I don't see much progression, which leads me to think he's peaked.  

 

Does anyone expect him to be in the finals this year?  A redshirt would do him wonders.

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We said the same thing after the 2014 season.  2014 was, of course, the last season for the "once in a generation talents" Ruth and Taylor, and their projected lineup for the foreseeable future saw only two legitimate national threats, along with numerous holes and questions.  After their down year in 2015, they came back stronger than ever.  I am not a Penn State fan, and I am gleefully awaiting the day when they falter.  But Cael has proven he is the best developer of talent in the sport, and I simply don't see that changing any time soon.

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13 minutes ago, Mr. Peepers said:

We said the same thing after the 2014 season.  2014 was, of course, the last season for the "once in a generation talents" Ruth and Taylor, and their projected lineup for the foreseeable future saw only two legitimate national threats, along with numerous holes and questions.  After their down year in 2015, they came back stronger than ever.  I am not a Penn State fan, and I am gleefully awaiting the day when they falter.  But Cael has proven he is the best developer of talent in the sport, and I simply don't see that changing any time soon.

Right, but who are the heavy hitters for Penn State next season?

141 - Nick Lee, 5th twice....I would pencil him for another 5th.

165 - Joseph, got dominated by Lewis and has never beat the Bull.  Still I think he is good for 2nd-4th.

174 - Hall, Valencia seems to have his number now.  I pencil him in for 2nd with few bonus.

184 - Shakur is a total question mark as far as his ability to stay healthy.

197 - Conel is also a question mark given his health.  Sure he had a magical run a year ago but who knows now.

285 - Cassar if he comes back is a lock for 1-4.

 

So basically in past years they had at least 2 guaranteed champs with lots of bonus (Taylor-Ruth, Retherford-Nolf, Nolf-Nickal)...now their top guns are Joseph, Hall and Cassar.  Joseph and Hall are no longer top dogs, Hall never bonused much anyway.  Cassar may be the best of the bunch, IF he gets another year and IF he comes back.

 

A lot more uncertainty this year than past years.  And this doesn't even account for the monster recruiting classes Iowa and Ohio State have coming in.

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1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

He never should have lost in the 1st round the year before.  I watch all of Penn State's matches and Nick Lee this year looks the same as Nick Lee last year.  He wins in the same way and loses in the same way.  Honestly I don't see much progression, which leads me to think he's peaked.  

 

Does anyone expect him to be in the finals this year?  A redshirt would do him wonders.

Nick Lee did not look the same to me this year, close but not quite.  He's a guy that has tied for the team lead in wins in each of his first two years in the line up (with no RS).  Led the team in TF, was 2nd in MD and TD, while scoring bonus points in 24-31 wins this year.  He could have just as easily been in the finals this year instead of McKenna.

With McKenna done and if Eierman takes an ORS, then yes, I do expect him to be in the finals next season.

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2 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Right, but who are the heavy hitters for Penn State next season?

141 - Nick Lee, 5th twice....I would pencil him for another 5th.

165 - Joseph, got dominated by Lewis and has never beat the Bull.  Still I think he is good for 2nd-4th.

174 - Hall, Valencia seems to have his number now.  I pencil him in for 2nd with few bonus.

184 - Shakur is a total question mark as far as his ability to stay healthy.

197 - Conel is also a question mark given his health.  Sure he had a magical run a year ago but who knows now.

285 - Cassar if he comes back is a lock for 1-4.

 

So basically in past years they had at least 2 guaranteed champs with lots of bonus (Taylor-Ruth, Retherford-Nolf, Nolf-Nickal)...now their top guns are Joseph, Hall and Cassar.  Joseph and Hall are no longer top dogs, Hall never bonused much anyway.  Cassar may be the best of the bunch, IF he gets another year and IF he comes back.

 

A lot more uncertainty this year than past years.  And this doesn't even account for the monster recruiting classes Iowa and Ohio State have coming in.

141 - Name 4 others at 141 who will place higher than Lee.  Yianni, Eierman if no ORS, Demas?  I think they will have a game plan for Demas next season and Nick beats him.  Strikes me as a guy that got hot at the right time.  Didn't have close to double digit losses this past season?

165 - Joseph places no lower than 3rd.  Given the Bull has faded each of the last two March's, I think Joseph beats him in a semi if they are on the same side.

174 - will go either way.  Hall completely dominated Zahid at the dual.  Their margin against each other is razor thin, so it is laughable to say that Zahid has his number.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Zahid goes 184 next year leaving a relatively easy path to the championship for Hall.

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6 minutes ago, wildcatfan1992 said:

141 - Name 4 others at 141 who will place higher than Lee.  Yianni, Eierman if no ORS, Demas?  I think they will have a game plan for Demas next season and Nick beats him.  Strikes me as a guy that got hot at the right time.  Didn't have close to double digit losses this past season?

165 - Joseph places no lower than 3rd.  Given the Bull has faded each of the last two March's, I think Joseph beats him in a semi if they are on the same side.

174 - will go either way.  Hall completely dominated Zahid at the dual.  Their margin against each other is razor thin, so it is laughable to say that Zahid has his number.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Zahid goes 184 next year leaving a relatively easy path to the championship for Hall.

141 - Yianni, Eireman if no ORS, Demas, Red, Carr (yes, despite his dud of a NCAAs this year)

165 - I could see Joseph taking 3rd.  I do not see him beating either Lewis or Bull head to head though.

174 - Fair, but Valencia is the favorite now.  Hall just doesn't have enough of his own offense against a guy like Zahid.

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Top Four Teams Only. Teams With Most Returning Starters Who Have Won An NCAA Individual Championship

Penn State - 3

Iowa - 1

Ohio State - 0

Oklahoma State - 0

 

Yeah, looks like PSU is on the decline alright. They are downright shabby looking. Lol. 

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4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Top Four Teams Only. Teams With Most Returning Starters Who Have Won An NCAA Individual Championship

Penn State - 3

Iowa - 1

Ohio State - 0

Oklahoma State - 0

 

Yeah, looks like PSU is on the decline alright. They are downright shabby looking. Lol. 

Has it been confirmed that Cassar is coming back?

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5 hours ago, Bombermule said:

The key word is cycles. PSU has been dominant in recruiting and on the mat for the last decade. There is a delicate balance between the Nickal's and Nolf's attracting talent and pushing it away. There are some recruits who see PSU's stacked lineup and say, "I want to be on that team because they are the best, even if I don't start." Others look at all of the stars in the line up and realize there is no spot for them (at least right away). PSU has some great recruits waiting in the wings and I think they will do well the next couple of seasons, but it is very difficult to look at anyone and predict that they are going to score ~100 points at NCAAs over their career.

I think we will see Cael rebuild next year or the year after and then start another run at some titles. I loved watching Nolf and Nickal, and think what PSU has done under Cael is incredible, but I am looking forward to some (hopefully) exciting team races in the next few seasons.

Despite how Cael has made it look over the past 8 years it is very unusual to get guys who score around 100 points in their 4 NCAA tournaments.  There is nothing that he has to have those types of guys to continue to win  team titles.  Nolf, Bo, DT, Zane & Ruth are exceptions that no coach can depend on replicating.  If he can get enough guys to develop like Matt Brown & Molinaro he will be fine.  He doesn't need all time greats to keep winning team titles.  I think the PSU recruiting class of 2018 (which they spread out over 2 years) is one of the best I've seen.  They will make a big impact over the next 4 years. It would be good to get an upgrade at 125 but I don't think Teske was going to good enough anyway to make an impact (based on his results last year).  They could look for a transfer or keep trying to find the right recruit.  

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Providing no one takes a RS of any kind, and both Cassar and Sheed come back, the future still does not look as dominating as it has been the last few years.  After next year they would lose Joseph, Hall, Sheed and Cassar.  That is a lot of holes to fill and they would be filling them with unproven guys.

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13 minutes ago, BHawk91 said:

Providing no one takes a RS of any kind, and both Cassar and Sheed come back, the future still does not look as dominating as it has been the last few years.  After next year they would lose Joseph, Hall, Sheed and Cassar.  That is a lot of holes to fill and they would be filling them with unproven guys.

Well, guys like Beard and Brooks may have not yet started for Penn State, but they are every bit as capable of winning big next year as anyone coming into college. You likely have very high hopes for Cassioppi, but Seth Nevills has better wins right now than he does. So those "unproven" guys aren't to be dismissed at all. They may just be the next big point scorers for PSU. 

And don't be shocked if RBY beats Desanto next year. 

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I am very high on Beard and Brooks.  Beard I think will be a top 5 guy out of the gate but I can't get that dismantling he took from Jacob Warner though.

Unless RBY goes on a NATO-ish lifting plan this summer I don't see him being Desanto.  Desanto is just too strong and physical for RBY.  You can't win a match with one arm behind your back unless your name is Jason Nolf.

 

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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55 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

Despite how Cael has made it look over the past 8 years it is very unusual to get guys who score around 100 points in their 4 NCAA tournaments.  There is nothing that he has to have those types of guys to continue to win  team titles.  Nolf, Bo, DT, Zane & Ruth are exceptions that no coach can depend on replicating.  If he can get enough guys to develop like Matt Brown & Molinaro he will be fine.  He doesn't need all time greats to keep winning team titles.  I think the PSU recruiting class of 2018 (which they spread out over 2 years) is one of the best I've seen.  They will make a big impact over the next 4 years. It would be good to get an upgrade at 125 but I don't think Teske was going to good enough anyway to make an impact (based on his results last year).  They could look for a transfer or keep trying to find the right recruit.  

I'd actually disagree.  I think Cael's ability to continue PSU's dynasty hinges upon whether or not he has found those transcendent guys.  The arms race has reached a point where it's going to be tough to win for those at the top without a couple of dominant champs.  

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5 hours ago, Fletcher said:

There will be some hip tosses and body locks mixed in next year.

Agreed Fletch.  Everyone knew what Demas was going to do.  Everyone.  He started off hot and then hit a bit of a  4-5 match (give or take) "slump."  I thought for sure he was 'figured out'. Then he just started rolling again and kept it going through B12's and into the National tourney.   His TD defense is solid and he can hit you from either side and almost any angle against almost anyone.  To say, wrestlers will be aware of his style  next season doesn't mean much considering they were aware of his style this season.  He didn't sneak up on Lee he was just better.

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23 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Agreed Fletch.  Everyone knew what Demas was going to do.  Everyone.  He started off hot and then hit a bit of a  4-5 match (give or take) "slump."  I thought for sure he was 'figured out'. Then he just started rolling again and kept it going through B12's and into the National tourney.   His TD defense is solid and he can hit you from either side and almost any angle against almost anyone.  To say, wrestlers will be aware of his style  next season doesn't mean much considering they were aware of his style this season.  He didn't sneak up on Lee he was just better.

 

I would say this much, though, being aware your opponent is going to try to inside trip you is only half of it. Getting a feel for it is a whole nother part. It helps greatly to prepare for something if you have felt it before. 

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I personally think PSU throws in the towell this year and redshirts everyone, olympic or otherwise....which still gives them a top 10 finish.

Imagine how it would totally kill Iowa permanently if PSU throws in the towell and they still don't win, at least tOSU was better at dealing with their obligatory title.

That sets them immediately back up to go on a run and dismantle OSU and tOSU's superstar recruiting classes.

They still need to fix 125 and constantly underperforming below 149.

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