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Who wins the team title next year?

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7 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

I am very high on Kemerer.  That "4th place finish" is a little bit cherry picked considering he ended up on the same side of the bracket as Nolf and then had to injury default in the 3rd/4th match.  By every indication he has recovered from his surgery very well and looks great up at 174.  I expect his attack rate to be very high like it was his freshman season and his gas tank will hopefully be reinvigorated by not having to pull the weight.  I truly expect him to be right there with those 3.  Time will tell.

Cherry picked?  He finished 3rd and 4th his first two seasons  - those finishes are about the same. Should I have quoted the average of 3.5?   And what do you mean looks great up at 174?  Had he actually competed at the weight. 

Anyway we have some data on wrestlers who had similar success at 157 moving up two weights to 174.  Joe Smith (the wrestler Kemerer beat for 3rd in 2017) went up two weights after taking a year off which is the same thing Kemerer is doing, but without the injury. He looked good at 174 but didn't beat that trio nor did he beat Jordan Kutler.  Jordan Kutler is another guy who made this same weight jump from 157 to 174.  In 2017 he beat Joe Smith convincingly at the Southern Scuffle and had only a single loss going into conferences when he missed weight and the postseason.  In two seasons at 174 he had finished 6th and 7th at NCAAs and is 0-3 against Hall, 0-2 against Valencia, and 1-3 against Amine.  It's possible Kemerer will be more successful than either of them, but hard to pencil him in top 3 at this point. 

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35 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

 

You are at least consistent. Ha ha. 

Pretty certain I gave every credit to PSU that is possible.  Exactly half your lineup(125,149,157,184[depending on Rasheed) and 197) will likely be manned by 100% unproven guys at the DI level. But, just because they are PSU, I still said I would bet on PSU if forced to put money on the line.  I just forced myself to pick Iowa because I said they would win at least one with Lee and I think that this year is still likely better than next year.a

On the flipside, Iowa will have NINE guys that have finished R12 or higher with 7 of those having AA'd.  On top of that you have a 2x Champ(Lee), a 2x top 4(Kemerer),  a top 5(DeSanto)with a win over a Finalist, another top 5(Young) at 157 with the top 3 guys graduating and a 2x AA with 2 wins over Joseph and 3 wins over Wick.  Even Warner and Lugo are poised to move up with several top finishers graduating and both weights appearing to be relatively thin. 

Simply put, on a purely individual basis, how do you not pick Iowa?  But, I, even not being a PSU fan, have to admit that PSU has had such a great record reloading without missing a beat that I wouldn't bet against them.  On top of that getting Cassar back, which should have happened, is HUGE.  Without him, it would be really hard for them to win.

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1 hour ago, gimpeltf said:

I wondered about that too when I saw the banner a few years ago. The NCAA tournament as such started in 1928. What I was told was that prior to the actual tournament it was basically a dual meet thing based on records throughout the year. I think Cornell could claim some of those also.

Interesting.  I looked at the 1920-21 season on the Penn State wrestling club website and it has their dual record at 6-1 with a loss to Navy.  It also has their conference position at 1st with 24 points. I'm not sure what conference that was. 

https://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/history/index.php?view=yby

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Honestly, I think the Olympics will throw kind of a wrench into the college team and individual champion talk next season. Some guys might opt to take an ORS, but others might wrestle the season and not do so well next season but make noise at OTTs or at the games, leading ppl to question whether they put the college season on the backburner. Seems like it matters more this cycle since there's just so much FS talent at the college level at the moment. Anyway, I can see it leading to a bunch of hypotheticals and what-ifs about the way next season turns out, regardless of the results.

Edited by pamela

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6 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Pretty certain I gave every credit to PSU that is possible.  Exactly half your lineup(125,149,157,184[depending on Rasheed) and 197) will likely be manned by 100% unproven guys at the DI level. But, just because they are PSU, I still said I would bet on PSU if forced to put money on the line.  I just forced myself to pick Iowa because I said they would win at least one with Lee and I think that this year is still likely better than next year.a

On the flipside, Iowa will have NINE guys that have finished R12 or higher with 7 of those having AA'd.  On top of that you have a 2x Champ(Lee), a 2x top 4(Kemerer),  a top 5(DeSanto)with a win over a Finalist, another top 5(Young) at 157 with the top 3 guys graduating and a 2x AA with 2 wins over Joseph and 3 wins over Wick.  Even Warner and Lugo are poised to move up with several top finishers graduating and both weights appearing to be relatively thin. 

Simply put, on a purely individual basis, how do you not pick Iowa?  But, I, even not being a PSU fan, have to admit that PSU has had such a great record reloading without missing a beat that I wouldn't bet against them.  On top of that getting Cassar back, which should have happened, is HUGE.  Without him, it would be really hard for them to win.

We all get that either of them could win it, but just definitively pick one of them and run with it, MSU. Stop waffling. 

Edited by TBar1977

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6 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

Cherry picked?  He finished 3rd and 4th his first two seasons  - those finishes are about the same. Should I have quoted the average of 3.5?   And what do you mean looks great up at 174?  Had he actually competed at the weight. 

Anyway we have some data on wrestlers who had similar success at 157 moving up two weights to 174.  Joe Smith (the wrestler Kemerer beat for 3rd in 2017) went up two weights after taking a year off which is the same thing Kemerer is doing, but without the injury. He looked good at 174 but didn't beat that trio nor did he beat Jordan Kutler.  Jordan Kutler is another guy who made this same weight jump from 157 to 174.  In 2017 he beat Joe Smith convincingly at the Southern Scuffle and had only a single loss going into conferences when he missed weight and the postseason.  In two seasons at 174 he had finished 6th and 7th at NCAAs and is 0-3 against Hall, 0-2 against Valencia, and 1-3 against Amine.  It's possible Kemerer will be more successful than either of them, but hard to pencil him in top 3 at this point. 

1.)Simple, the way you use 4th implies he was simply 4th best.  That was NOT the case.  Having Nolf on his side of the bracket(much like Hidlay this season) rendered him 3rd at best.  Injury caused him to lose to a guy he OWNED up to the point. 

2.)  Looks mean exactly what I said.  He LOOKS good, ie healty/fit/full sized at 174.

3.)  Joe Smith got fat and was NOT fully dedicated.  Kutler fricking missed weight.  Neither of them have shown the skils NOR the dedication to be remotely compared to him.

By the way, Steve Luke went from 157 to 174 and was a National Champ.  Luke is a MUCH better comparison......................

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I would think this is a perfect season for PSU to red/olympic shirt RBY, Lee, Joseph, Hall and Beard.  Start their 6th year guys, throw Manville out there and absolutely crush everyone the next year.

But Sanderson cannot allow Iowa to win NCAA's.  He would be willing to give Ryan, Smith and even Koll a token championship but never Brands.

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2 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Just pick one of them and run with it, MSU. Stop waffling. 

Not waffling.  Just giving PSU the respect they are due, even if some of their sychophants are annoying by default.........................I AM picking Iowa to win, but am rightly worried about PSU.  Even with the unknowns, the track record is too strong to ignore.

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2 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

1.)Simple, the way you use 4th implies he was simply 4th best.  That was NOT the case.  Having Nolf on his side of the bracket(much like Hidlay this season) rendered him 3rd at best.  Injury caused him to lose to a guy he OWNED up to the point. 

2.)  Looks mean exactly what I said.  He LOOKS good, ie healty/fit/full sized at 174.

3.)  Joe Smith got fat and was NOT fully dedicated.  Kutler fricking missed weight.  Neither of them have shown the skils NOR the dedication to be remotely compared to him.

By the way, Steve Luke went from 157 to 174 and was a National Champ.  Luke is a MUCH better comparison......................

Kem would be an under dog to Z, Hall, Amine, and Mehki if he goes 174, and probably no better than even with McFadden and Kutler. 

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3 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Not waffling.  Just giving PSU the respect they are due, even if some of their sychophants are annoying by default.........................I AM picking Iowa to win, but am rightly worried about PSU.  Even with the unknowns, the track record is too strong to ignore.

OK. I have you LOCKED in for Iowa, until you inevitably change your mind. 

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Just now, TBar1977 said:

Kem would be an under dog to Z, Hall, Amine, and Mehki if he goes 174, and probably no better than even with McFadden and Kutler. 

Side bet that he finishes ahead of McFadden and Kutler and atleast 1 of the other 3?  Significant Injury nullifies the bet.

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Just now, MSU158 said:

Side bet that he finishes ahead of McFadden and Kutler and atleast 1 of the other 3?  Significant Injury nullifies the bet.

I don't internet wager, but I will go on record as saying if I were in any casino and could bet against your prop I would do so. Feel free to quote me if you somehow turn out to have correctly predicted this. I'll own up to being wrong if it comes to that. 

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20 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

1.)Simple, the way you use 4th implies he was simply 4th best.  That was NOT the case.  Having Nolf on his side of the bracket(much like Hidlay this season) rendered him 3rd at best.  Injury caused him to lose to a guy he OWNED up to the point. 

2.)  Looks mean exactly what I said.  He LOOKS good, ie healty/fit/full sized at 174.

3.)  Joe Smith got fat and was NOT fully dedicated.  Kutler fricking missed weight.  Neither of them have shown the skils NOR the dedication to be remotely compared to him.

By the way, Steve Luke went from 157 to 174 and was a National Champ.  Luke is a MUCH better comparison......................

He was seeded 6th that year at NCAAs was he not?  He was on the opposite side of the bracket as Nolf at Big Tens and failed to do better than 3rd.  If you ask me picking Steve Luke as the closest comparable for guys jumping from 157 to 174 is more cherry picking than citing his 4th place finish.  How about we go with Realbuto instead?  

 

Edited by Fishbane

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28 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

Interesting.  I looked at the 1920-21 season on the Penn State wrestling club website and it has their dual record at 6-1 with a loss to Navy.  It also has their conference position at 1st with 24 points. I'm not sure what conference that was. 

https://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/history/index.php?view=yby

When I look on Boomer's site it starts with Navy in around 1925 which makes me wonder if that was the Navy team (not the academy)

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5 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

He was seeded 6th that year at NCAAs was he not?  He was on the opposite side of the bracket of Nolf at Big Tens and failed to do better than 3rd.  If you ask me picking Steve Luke as the closest comparable for guys jumping from 157 to 174 is more cherry picking than citing his 4th place finish.  How about we go with Realbuto instead?  

 

60-6 career record with 3 of those being in the top 10 toughest matches of Nolf's career. One of his other losses was as a freshman. He made an ill advised mistake against a very dangerous senior(Palacio) and paid for it.  Other than that he had a well documented injury surface against Jordan at B1G's.  With that he was still able to beat legitimate studs in Pantaleo, Shields and Lavallee while keeping it relatively close with another hobbled stud in Nolf.  He would finally lose his last match due to injury when the injury was exacerbated to the point he just could no longer continue.

I think many of you are simply selling the guy short.  He has wins, several of them quite dominant, over Hidlay, Tsirtsis, Berger(3x), Smith(2x), Shields(2x), Jordan, Lavallee and Pantaleo.

It looks like we won't be changing each other's minds.  I will pick him top 4, you can pick him less than that.  We can revisit this in mid-March and see who was correct.  Sound fair?

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19 minutes ago, gimpeltf said:

When I look on Boomer's site it starts with Navy in around 1925 which makes me wonder if that was the Navy team (not the academy)

If you look for them under schools here http://wrestlingstats.com/NWCA/schools.php, he has dual records for them back to 1909.  In 1921 it says the coach was John Schultz and they were 5-0 in duals.   They were undefeated in duals for 4 season from 1919-1922 according to that list. Cornell had 7 undefeated dual records 1928 and earlier in the same section.  No idea if either school claims those as national titles before NCAA tournament team scoring became a thing. 

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2 hours ago, Fishbane said:

If you look for them under schools here http://wrestlingstats.com/NWCA/schools.php, he has dual records for them back to 1909.  In 1921 it says the coach was John Schultz and they were 5-0 in duals.   They were undefeated in duals for 4 season from 1919-1922 according to that list. Cornell had 7 undefeated dual records 1928 and earlier in the same section.  No idea if either school claims those as national titles before NCAA tournament team scoring became a thing. 

I meant that Penn State showed around 1925 on wrestlingstats. Interesting that he must have shared more on the NWCA site than his own.

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21 hours ago, lu1979 said:

I think you are way to optimistic about Cornell.  They have 4 strong AA contenders in Vito, Yianni, Max, & Darmstadt (assuming he is healthy).  Tucker is tough but in a loaded weight - he will have to step up his game to make the podium.  Womack is also an outside shot to AA.  They really havn't shown that they have anyone that can compete on a high level at 149, 157, 165 (I include Berrysea) and 285.  This could change if they bring in some of their star laden-ed recruiting class to beef up some of those weak spots.  I will be interested to see who grey shirts for them.   Right now it appears that the race is between PSU & Iowa with others playing catch up.

I think either Hall or Valencia part like the red sea that spells trouble for Max Dean. Possible that Yanni shirts. Can Vito continue to hold 125. 133 is loaded but it's also Tuckers natural weight. Cornell will be improving at the weights they didnt qualify for the tournament with having another year under their belt and In my personal opinion I think Fernandez wins the HWT spot with dark horse AA shot.. He will be Cornells first ever AA at that weight sometime in the future book it. People should note that they have at least a 2 year window to get it done.

Edited by Sublime607

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22 hours ago, lu1979 said:

Actually I think "Back to back to back" means winning 4  titles in a row which PSU has now done twice.  Just saying

Then why are two consecutive home runs in a baseball game referred to as "back to back" home runs?  In consideration of the dates shown (2016 | 2017 | 2018), the caption on the t-shirt is correct.

Edited by lu_alum

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Kemerererer is better than Realbuto.  Take the entire seasons into account, he was clearly the #2 for both his frosh and soph years.  He outclassed everyone aside for Nolf while healthy.

I am extremely worried about him against anyone not named Hall right now at 174, providing Zahid goes 184.  Amine can likely grind him and control him, but if he doesn't get the first takedown then he is in trouble.  I don't see Kutler or DMF having much to offer him at the end of the day.  Mehki may out-athlete/out-horse him, but despite my ONE wish for next season be that 174 gets Zahid, and Mehki and just a slew of studs, I doubt Mehki he goes up.

Styles make matches.  Kemerererererer and Amine and Hall are in the B1G.  I see them as clear-cut 3-2-1 there, however Kemerererererererererer can beat Amine, I believe.  He has the tools.  Hall is the clear-cut favorite.  An undefeated Anthony Valencia or DMF or Kutler could sneak in as a 2 seed or even a 1 seed if Hall takes a loss a B1Gs(if he loses to Amine in-season and beats him at B1Gs I see him getting the 1 seed still bases on SoS).

As of now, I have Hall as Tier 1 until proven otherwise.  Tier 2 is Amine and Kemererererererererererer.  Tier 3 is DMF, Valencia, Kutler. Tier 4 is Skatzka, Labriola, Valencia, Lujan, Lydy. Darkhorses would be Harvey(having a monster freestyle season), Finesilver(same as Harvey), Wilson(if he can avoid the soph slump) and Utah Valley's Bastian. 

I can see tiers beating those around them, but not jumping 2.  Meaning DMF, Valencia, Kutler could beat Amine and Kemererererererererererererrrr but I could also see them losing to Skatzka, Labriola, Valencia, Lujan, Lydy.  I don't see Skatza and co beating Amine/Kemerer and I don't see Hall losing to anyone aside for Amine or Kemdawg and even then he should be rightfully favored.

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18 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

I meant that Penn State showed around 1925 on wrestlingstats. Interesting that he must have shared more on the NWCA site than his own.

Oh yeah he has PSU dual records back to 1909 in that section too. 

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